Hydrologic aspects of freshening upper Old Tampa Bay, Florida

Upper Old Tampa Bay, a 17-square mile area of Old Tampa Bay, Florida, has been proposed for conversion to a fresh-water lake. The amount of runoff to the proposed lake and its chemical quality are both adequate to freshen and sustain a fresh-water lake in this part of the bay. During 1950-66 runoff to the proposed lake, including discharge from Lake Tarpon, would have averaged 134 mgd (million gallons per day) and would have displaced the volume of the proposed lake at normal pool stage (2.5 feet above mean sea level) about 1.7 times per year. Without discharge from Lake Tarpon, the volume of the proposed lake would have been displaced 1.2 times. If the lake level was initially at a normal pool stage during a critically dry year, such as 1956, the proposed lake would have declined 0.25 to 0.5 foot below the minimum design level, (1.5 feet above mean sea level). (44 page document)

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.

Freshening of the Alaska Coastal Current Recorded By Coralline Algal Ba/Ca Ratios

Arctic Ocean freshening can exert a controlling influence on global climate, triggering strong feedbacks on ocean-atmospheric processes and affecting the global cycling of the world's oceans. Glacier-fed ocean currents such as the Alaska Coastal Current are important sources of freshwater for the Bering Sea shelf, and may also influence the Arctic Ocean freshwater budget. Instrumental data indicate a multiyear freshening episode of the Alaska Coastal Current in the early 21st century. It is uncertain whether this freshening is part of natural multidecadal climate variability or a unique feature of anthropogenically induced warming. In order to answer this, a better understanding of past variations in the Alaska Coastal Current is needed. However, continuous long-term high-resolution observations of the Alaska Coastal Current have only been available for the last 2 decades. In this study, specimens of the long-lived crustose coralline alga Clathromorphum nereostratum were collected within the pathway of the Alaska Coastal Current and utilized as archives of past temperature and salinity. Results indicate that coralline algal Mg/Ca ratios provide a 60 year record of sea surface temperatures and track changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of decadal-to-multidecadal ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered over the North Pacific. Algal Ba/Ca ratios (used as indicators of coastal freshwater runoff) are inversely correlated to instrumentally measured Alaska Coastal Current salinity and record the period of freshening from 2001 to 2006. Similar multiyear freshening events are not evident in the earlier portion of the 60 year Ba/Ca record. This suggests that the 21st century freshening of the Alaska Coastal Current is a unique feature related to increasing glacial melt and precipitation on mainland Alaska.

Intraseasonal response of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the Bay of Bengal to heat and freshwater flux

Buoy and satellite data show pronounced subseasonal oscillations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the summertime Bay of Bengal. The SST oscillations are forced mainly by surface heat flux associated with the active break cycle of the south Asian summer monsoon. The input of freshwater (FW) from summer rain and rivers to the bay is large, but not much is known about subseasonal salinity variability. We use 2002-2007 observations from three Argo floats with 5 day repeat cycle to study the subseasonal response of temperature and salinity to surface heat and freshwater flux in the central Bay of Bengal. About 95% of Argo profiles show a shallow halocline, with substantial variability of mixed layer salinity. Estimates of surface heat and freshwater flux are based on daily satellite data sampled along the float trajectory. We find that intraseasonal variability of mixed layer temperature is mainly a response to net surface heat flux minus penetrative radiation during the summer monsoon season. In winter and spring, however, temperature variability appears to be mainly due to lateral advection rather than local heat flux. Variability of mixed layer freshwater content is generally independent of local surface flux (precipitation minus evaporation) in all seasons. There are occasions when intense monsoon rainfall leads to local freshening, but these are rare. Large fluctuations in FW appear to be due to advection, suggesting that freshwater from rivers and rain moves in eddies or filaments.

A summer monsoon pump to keep the Bay of Bengal salty

The Bay of Bengal receives a large influx of freshwater from precipitation and river discharge. Outflow of excess freshwater and inflow of saltier water is required to prevent the bay from freshening. Relatively fresh water flows out of the bay along its boundaries and inflow of saltier water occurs via the Summer Monsoon Current (SMC), which flows eastward from the Arabian Sea into the bay. This saltier water, however, slides under the lighter surface water of the bay. Maintaining the salt balance of the bay therefore demands upward mixing of this saltier, subsurface water. Here, we show that an efficient mechanism for this mixing is provided by upward pumping of saltier water in several bursts during the summer monsoon along the meandering path of the SMC. Advection by currents can then take this saltier water into the rest of the basin, allowing the bay to stay salty despite a large net freshwater input.

A modeling study of the processes of surface salinity seasonal cycle in the Bay of Bengal

In response to the Indian Monsoon freshwater forcing, the Bay of Bengal exhibits a very strong seasonal cycle in sea surface salinity (SSS), especially near the mouths of the Ganges-Brahmaputra and along the east coast of India. In this paper, we use an eddy-permitting (similar to 25 km resolution) regional ocean general circulation model simulation to quantify the processes responsible for this SSS seasonal cycle. Despite the absence of relaxation toward observations, the model reproduces the main features of the observed SSS seasonal cycle, with freshest water in the northeastern Bay, particularly during and after the monsoon. The model also displays an intense and shallow freshening signal in a narrow (similar to 100 km wide) strip that hugs the east coast of India, from September to January, in good agreement with high-resolution measurements along two ships of opportunity lines. The mixed layer salt budget confirms that the strong freshening in the northern Bay during the monsoon results from the Ganges-Brahmaputra river discharge and from precipitation over the ocean. From September onward, the East India Coastal Current transports this freshwater southward along the east coast of India, reaching the southern tip of India in November. The surface freshening results in an enhanced vertical salinity gradient that increases salinity of the surface layer by vertical processes. Our results reveal that the erosion of the freshwater tongue along the east coast of India is not driven by northward horizontal advection, but by vertical processes that eventually overcome the freshening by southward advection and restore SSS to its premonsoon values. The salinity-stratified barrier layer hence only acts as a ``barrier'' for vertical heat fluxes, but is associated with intense vertical salt fluxes in the Bay of Bengal.

Trends and long-term variability of ocean properties at Ocean Station P in the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

Twenty-seven years (1956-1983) of oceanographic data collected at Ocean Station P (50°N/145°W), as well as supplementary data obtained in its neighborhood, have been examined for trends and interannual variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. There is evidence that the water is warming and freshening and that the isopycnal surfaces are deepening. Trends in oxyty are mostly not significant. The most common periods for the interannual variability appear to be 2 1/2 and 6-7 years. The vertical movement of water accounts for one half of the changes in temperature and salinity and 30% of those in oxyty. Other factors, such as a shift of water masses, may also be important.

Late Holocene environmental variability in the upper San Francisco Estuary as reconstructed from tidal marsh sediments

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tidal marsh sediments collected from Browns Island in the lower Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, California, are used to reconstruct environmental variability over the past 6.8 ka. Calibrated radiocarbon dates provide chronostratigraphic control. Trace metal analyses, grain-size variability, organic content, and macrofossils are used to define short- and long-term variations in relative salinity and inundation frequency. Aggradation began in subtidal fresh water conditions about 6.8 ka. Subtidal aggradation of clayey silts continued until about 6.3 ka, when conditions shifted toward a lower intertidal brackish marsh environment. By 5.1 ka, a brackish marsh plain had evolved, with surface water freshening after 4.1 ka. Conditions returned to brackish similar to the present after 2.3 ka.

Increased blooms of a dinoflagellate in the NW Atlantic

Sampling by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) over the NW Atlantic from 1960 to 2000 has enabled long-term studies of the larger components of the phytoplankton community, highlighting various changes, particularly during the 1990s. Analysis of an index of phytoplankton biomass, the Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI) has revealed an increase over the past decade, most marked during the winter (December to February) months. Examination of the structure of the community using multiple linear-regression models indicates that the winter phytoplankton community composition has changed markedly in the 1990s compared to the 1960s. One phytoplankter, the dinoflagellate Ceratium arcticum (Cleve), has undergone dramatic changes in abundance during this period, with pronounced large winter blooms and decreased autumnal levels, and its contribution to the Phytoplankton Colour index values has increased significantly. Other dominant species in the phytoplankton community, both diatoms and dinoflagellates, did not show the same variations over the examined time period. It is suggested that the response of C. arcticum is probably a result of previously reported changes in stratification in the NW Atlantic, due to dynamic hydro-climatic (freshening and cooling) events.

Climate change impacts on sea–air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas: a sensitivity study using Earth observation

We applied coincident Earth observation data collected during 2008 and 2009 from multiple sensors (RA2, AATSR and MERIS, mounted on the European Space Agency satellite Envisat) to characterise environmental conditions and integrated sea-air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas (Greenland, Barents, Kara). We assessed net CO2 sink sensitivity due to changes in temperature, salinity and sea ice duration arising from future climate scenarios. During the study period the Greenland and Barents seas were net sinks for atmospheric CO2, with integrated sea-air fluxes of -36 +/- 14 and -11 +/- 5 Tg C yr(-1), respectively, and the Kara Sea was a weak net CO2 source with an integrated sea-air flux of +2.2 +/- 1.4 TgC yr(-1). The combined integrated CO2 sea-air flux from all three was -45 +/- 18 TgC yr(-1). In a sensitivity analysis we varied temperature, salinity and sea ice duration. Variations in temperature and salinity led to modification of the transfer velocity, solubility and partial pressure of CO2 taking into account the resultant variations in alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Our results showed that warming had a strong positive effect on the annual integrated sea-air flux of CO2 (i.e. reducing the sink), freshening had a strong negative effect and reduced sea ice duration had a small but measurable positive effect. In the climate change scenario examined, the effects of warming in just over a decade of climate change up to 2020 outweighed the combined effects of freshening and reduced sea ice duration. Collectively these effects gave an integrated sea-air flux change of +4.0 TgC in the Greenland Sea, +6.0 Tg C in the Barents Sea and +1.7 Tg C in the Kara Sea, reducing the Greenland and Barents sinks by 11% and 53 %, respectively, and increasing the weak Kara Sea source by 81 %. Overall, the regional integrated flux changed by +11.7 Tg C, which is a 26% reduction in the regional sink. In terms of CO2 sink strength, we conclude that the Barents Sea is the most susceptible of the three regions to the climate changes examined. Our results imply that the region will cease to be a net CO2 sink in the 2050s.

Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how "similar" zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (vertical bar r vertical bar = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single "warm-and-low-productivity" vs. "cool-and-high-productivity" component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative ("cool" and "productive") or near zero except positive in the El Nino years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and increasingly positive ("warm" and "low productivity") from 1992 to 1998; negative from 1999 to 2002; and again increasingly positive from 2003-present. We suggest that, in strongly seasonal environments, anomalously high temperature may provide misleading environmental cues that contribute to timing mismatch between life history events and the more-nearly-fixed seasonality of insolation, stratification, and food supply. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Glacial to paraglacial history and forest recovery in the Oglio glacier system (Italian Alps) between 26 and 15 ka cal BP

The integrated stratigraphic, radiocarbon and palynological record from an end-moraine system of the Oglio valley glacier (Italian Alps), propagating a lobe upstream in a lateral reach, provided evidence for a complete cycle of glacial advance, culmination and withdrawal during the Last Glacial Maximum and early Lateglacial. The glacier culminated in the end moraine shortly after 25.8 +/- 0.8 ka cal BP, and cleared the valley floor 18.3-17.2 +/- 0.3 ka cal BP. A primary paraglacial phase is then recorded by fast progradation of the valley floor.

As early as 16.7 +/- 0.3 ka cal BP, early stabilization of alluvial fans and lake filling promoted expansion of cembran pine. This is an unprecedented evidence of direct tree response to depletion of paraglacial activity during the early Lateglacial, and also documents the cembran pine survival in the mountain belt of the Italian Alps during the last glaciation. Between 16.1 and 14.6 +/- 0.5 ka cal BP, debris cones emplacement points to a moisture increase favouring tree Betula and Pinus sylvestris-mugo. A climate perturbation renewed paraglacial activity. According to cosmogenic ages on glacial deposits and AMS radiocarbon ages from lake records in South-Eastern Alps such phase compares favourably with the Gschnitz stadial and with the oscillations recorded at lakes Ragogna. Langsee and Jeserzersee, most probably forced by the latest freshening phases of the Heinrich Event 1.

A further sharp pine rise marks the subsequent onset of Bolling interstadial. The chronology of the Oglio glacier compares closely with major piedmont glaciers on the Central and Eastern Alpine forelands. On the other hand, the results of the present study imply a chronostratigraphic re-assessment of the recent geological mapping of the Central Italian Alps. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Western Iberian margin circulation: present and future

The purpose of this work is to carry out a comprehensive study on the Western Iberian Margin (WIM) circulation my means of numerical modeling, and to postulate what this circulation will be in the future. The adopted approach was the development of a regional ocean model configuration with high resolution, capable of reproducing the largeand small-scale dynamics of the coastal transition zone. Four numerical experiences were carried out according to these objectives: (1) a climatological run, in order to study the system’s seasonal behavior and its mean state; (2) a run forced with real winds and fluxes for period 2001-2011 in order to study the interannual variability of the system; (3) a run forced with mean fields from Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the present, in order to validate GCMs as adequate forcing for regional ocean modeling; (4) a similar run (3) for period 2071-2100, in order to assess possible consequences of a future climate scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the WIM. Furthermore, two Lagrangian particle studies were carried out: one in order to trace the origin of the upwelled waters along the WIM; the other in order to portrait the patterns of larval dispersal, accumulation and connectivity. The numerical configuration proved to be adequate in the reproduction of the system’s mean state, seasonal characterization and an interannual variability study. There is prevalence of poleward flow at the slope, which coexists with the upwelling jet during summer, although there is evidence of its shifting offshore, and which is associated with the Mediterranean Water flow at deeper levels, suggesting a barotropic character. From the future climate scenario essay, the following conclusions were drawn: there is general warming and freshening of upper level waters; there is still poleward tendency, and despite the upwellingfavorable winds strengthening in summer the respective coastal band becomes more restricted in width and depth. In what concerns larval connectivity and dispersion along the WIM, diel vertical migration was observed to increase recruitment throughout the domain, and while smooth coastlines are better suppliers, there is higher accumulation where the topography is rougher.

Orbital and millenial-scale environmental changes between 64 and 25 ka BP recorded in Black Sea sediments

High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from sediment core M72/5-25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 20 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the concomitant presence of temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in northern Anatolia. Long-term glacial vegetation dynamics reveal two major arid phases ~64–55 and 40–32 ka BP, and two major humid phases ~54–45 and 28–20 ka BP, correlating with higher and lower summer insolation, respectively. Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles are clearly indicated by the 25-GC1 pollen record. Greenland interstadials are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm/wet conditions in northern Anatolia, whereas Greenland stadials reveal cold and arid conditions as indicated by spread of xerophytic biomes. There is evidence for a phase lag of ~500 to 1500 yr between initial warming and forest expansion, possibly due to successive changes in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates brackish Black Sea conditions during the entire glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritarchs) at ~54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae (Pediastrum, Botryococcus) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water. This freshening is possibly related to humid phases in the region, to connection between Caspian Sea and Black Sea, to seasonal freshening by floating ice, and/or to closer position of river mouths due to low sea level. In the southern Black Sea, Greenland interstadials are clearly indicated by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in the northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as Greenland stadials.

A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts, such as increased hurricane numbers, and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately -0.45C or 1.5x10^22 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures.