Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

Proceedings of the 1998 Science Board Symposium on The Impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño Event on the North Pacific Ocean and Its Marginal Seas

Preface [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James J. O'Brien The big picture - The ENSO of 1997-98 [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James E. Overland, Nicholas A. Bond & Jennifer Miletta Adams Atmospheric anomalies in 1997: Links to ENSO? [pdf, 0.54 Mb] Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Olga Trusenkova, Serge Trousenkov, Dmitry Kaplunenko, Elena Ustinova & Antonina Polyakova The ENSO signal in the northwest Pacific [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Robert L. Smith, A. Huyer, P.M. Kosro & J.A. Barth Observations of El Niño off Oregon: July 1997 to present (October 1998) [pdf, 1.31 Mb] Patrica A. Wheeler & Jon Hill Biological effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño event off Oregon: Nutrient and chlorophyll distributions [pdf, 1.13 Mb] William T. Peterson Hydrography and zooplankton off the central Oregon coast during the 1997-1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.26 Mb] William Crawford, Josef Cherniawsky, Michael Foreman & Peter Chandler El Niño sea level signal along the west coast of Canada [pdf, 1.25 Mb] Howard J. Freeland & Rick Thomson The El Niño signal along the west coast of Canada - temperature, salinity and velocity [pdf, 0.49 Mb] Frank A. Whitney, David L. Mackas, David W. Welch & Marie Robert Impact of the 1990s El Niños on nutrient supply and productivity of Gulf of Alaska waters [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Craig McNeil, David Farmer & Mark Trevorrow Dissolved gas measurements at Stn. P4 during the 97-98 El Niño [pdf, 0.13 Mb] Kristen L.D. Milligan, Colin D. Levings & Robert E. DeWreede Data compilation and preliminary time series analysis of abundance of a dominant intertidal kelp species in relation to the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.05 Mb] S.M. McKinnell, C.C. Wood, M. Lapointe, J.C. Woodey, K.E. Kostow, J. Nelson & K.D. Hyatt Reviewing the evidence that adult sockeye salmon strayed from the Fraser River and spawned in other rivers in 1997 [pdf,0.03 Mb] G.A. McFarlane & R.J. Beamish Sardines return to British Columbia waters [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Ken H. Morgan Impact of the 1997/98 El Niño on seabirds of the northeast Pacific [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Thomas C. Royer & Thomas Weingartner Coastal hydrographic responses in the northern Gulf of Alaska to the 1997-98 ENSO event [pdf, 0.76 Mb] John F. Piatt, Gary Drew, Thomas Van Pelt, Alisa Abookire, April Nielsen, Mike Shultz & Alexander Kitaysky Biological effects of the 1997/98 ENSO in Cook Inlet, Alaska [pdf, 0.22 Mb] H.J. Niebauer The 1997-98 El Niño in the Bering Sea as compared with previous ENSO events and the "regime shift" of the late 1970s [pdf, 0.10 Mb] A.S. Krovnin, G.P. Nanyushin, M.Yu. Kruzhalov, G.V. Khen, M.A. Bogdanov, E.I. Ustinova, V.V. Maslennikov, A.M. Orlov, B.N. Kotenev, V.V. Bulanov & G.P. Muriy The state of the Far East seas during the 1997/98 El Niño event [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Stacy Smith & Susan Henrichs Phytoplankton collected by a time-series sediment trap deployed in the southeast Bering Sea during 1997 [pdf, 0.21 Mb] Cynthia T. Tynan Redistributions of cetaceans in the southeast Bering Sea relative to anomalous oceanographic conditions during the 1997 El Niño [pdf, 0.02 Mb] Akihiko Yatsu, Junta Mori, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Tomowo Watanabe, Kazuya Nagasawa, Yikimasa Ishida, Toshimi Meguro, Yoshihiko Kamei & Yasunori Sakurai Stock abundance and size compositions of the neon flying squid in the central North Pacific Ocean during 1979-1998 [pdf, 0.11 Mb] O.B. Feschenko A new point of view concerning the El Niño mechanism [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Nathan Mantua 97/98 Ocean climate variability in the northeast Pacific: How much blame does El Niño deserve? [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Vadim P. Pavlychev Sharp changes of hydrometeorological conditions in the northwestern Pacific during the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Jingyi Wang Predictability and forecast verification of El Niño events [pdf, 0.01 Mb] (Document contains 110 pages)

“El Niño” study based on analysis of ocean surface temperatures 1935-57

ENGLISH: The following report describes the findings of an "El Niño" project carried out at the Department of Meteorology of the University of California, Los Angeles, at the request of, and with funds provided from, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. The project was, in its early stages, supervised by Professor M. Neiburger, but was in June 1959 transferred to Professor J. Bjerknes, who thereby became the sole author of this final report. Readers who may be interested in the general background of knowledge of the maritime meteorology of the Eastern Pacific are herewith referred to Professor Neiburger's final report of the "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project." That report, submitted in September 1958 to the Office of Naval Research, summarizes the results of all the meteorological soundings released at sea since 1949 from California in the north to Peru in the south. The soundings off Ecuador and Peru were all taken by the "Shellback" expedition during July 1952. Important as this first exploration of the atmosphere over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific was, it did not even begin to explore " El Niño " itself, which is confined to the southern summer season and, moreover, only reaches catastrophic proportions in a few exceptional years. SPANISH: Este estudio da a conocer los resultados de una investigación que, bajo el nombre de Proyecto "El Niño", ha sido efectuada en el Departamento de Meteorología de la Universidad de California, Los Angeles, a solicitud de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical y con fondos provistos por ésta. En sus primeras etapas, el proyecto fué supervisado por el Profesor M. Neiburger, pero en junio de 1959 fué transferido al Profesor J. Bjerknes, quien de este modo vino a ser el solo autor de este informe final. A los lectores interesados en los conocimientos de fondo de la meteorología marítima del Pacífico Oriental se les recomienda consultar el informe final del Profesor Neiburger intitulado "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project". Este informe, sometido a la "Office of Naval Research" en septiembre de 1958 sumariza los resultados de todos los sondeos meteorológicos efectuados en el mar desde 1949 en el área entre California en el norte y Perú en el sur. Todos los sondeos frente al Ecuador y el Perú fueron hechos por la Expedición "Shellback" durante el mes de julio de 1952. Importante como fué esta primera exploración de la atmósfera sobre el Pacífico Ecuatorial del Este, ni siquiera comenzó a explorar "El Niño" en sí, que se confina a la estación de verano en el sur y, más aún, sólo alcanza proporciones catastróficas en unos pocos años excepcionales.

Education and research - the "El Niño" years

From a special issue: A Brief History of the Charles Darwin Foundation for the Galapagos Islands 1959-1988