A collection of empirical relations for use in ecological modelling

This study summarizes previously published and updated empirical relations for the estimation of production/biomass ratios in benthic invertebrates; of natural mortality in benthic invertebrates and finfish; and of respiration from production and vice versa in animal populations. AMS-EXCEL spreadsheet containing these equations is available from the author via Email. They are also included in the Ecopath with Ecosim software.

The importance of high frequency data in ecological modelling.

The purpose of this note is to discuss the role of high frequency data in ecological modelling and to identify some of the data requirements for the further development of ecological models for operational oceanography. There is a pressing requirement for the establishment of data acquisition systems for key ecological variables with a high spatial and temporal coverage. Such a system will facilitate the development of operational models. It is envisaged that both in-situ and remotely sensed measurements will need to combined to achieve this aim.

Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Conceptual Ecological Modelling of Sublittoral Rock Habitats to Inform Indicator Selection

The purpose of this study is to produce a series of Conceptual Ecological Models (CEMs) that represent sublittoral rock habitats in the UK. CEMs are diagrammatic representations of the influences and processes that occur within an ecosystem. They can be used to identify critical aspects of an ecosystem that may be studied further, or serve as the basis for the selection of indicators for environmental monitoring purposes. The models produced by this project are control diagrams, representing the unimpacted state of the environment free from anthropogenic pressures. It is intended that the models produced by this project will be used to guide indicator selection for the monitoring of this habitat in UK waters. CEMs may eventually be produced for a range of habitat types defined under the UK Marine Biodiversity Monitoring R&D Programme (UKMBMP), which, along with stressor models, are designed to show the interactions within impacted habitats, would form the basis of a robust method for indicator selection. This project builds on the work to develop CEMs for shallow sublittoral coarse sediment habitats (Alexander et al 2014). The project scope included those habitats defined as ‘sublittoral rock’. This definition includes those habitats that fall into the EUNIS Level 3 classifications A3.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy infralittoral rock, A3.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy infralittoral rock, A3.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy infralittoral rock, A4.1 Atlantic and Mediterranean high energy circalittoral rock, A4.2 Atlantic and Mediterranean moderate energy circalittoral rock, and A4.3 Atlantic and Mediterranean low energy circalittoral rock as well as the constituent Level 4 and 5 biotopes that are relevant to UK waters. A species list of characterising fauna to be included within the scope of the models was identified using an iterative process to refine the full list of species found within the relevant Level 5 biotopes. A literature review was conducted using a pragmatic and iterative approach to gather evidence regarding species traits and information that would be used to inform the models and characterise the interactions that occur within the sublittoral rock habitat. All information gathered during the literature review was entered into a data logging pro-forma spreadsheet that accompanies this report. Wherever possible, attempts were made to collect information from UK-specific peer-reviewed studies, although other sources were used where necessary. All data gathered was subject to a detailed confidence assessment. Expert judgement by the project team was utilised to provide information for aspects of the models for which references could not be sourced within the project timeframe. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to assess ecologically similar groups (based on ecological and life history traits) of fauna from the identified species to form the basis of the models. A model hierarchy was developed based on these ecological groups. One general control model was produced that indicated the high-level drivers, inputs, biological assemblages, ecosystem processes and outputs that occur in sublittoral rock habitats. In addition to this, seven detailed sub-models were produced, which each focussed on a particular ecological group of fauna within the habitat: ‘macroalgae’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached active filter feeders’, ‘temporarily or permanently attached passive filter feeders’, ‘bivalves, brachiopods and other encrusting filter feeders’, ‘tube building fauna’, ‘scavengers and predatory fauna’, and ‘non-predatory mobile fauna’. Each sub-model is accompanied by an associated confidence model that presents confidence in the links between each model component. The models are split into seven levels and take spatial and temporal scale into account through their design, as well as magnitude and direction of influence. The seven levels include regional to global drivers, water column processes, local inputs/processes at the seabed, habitat and biological assemblage, output processes, local ecosystem functions, and regional to global ecosystem functions. The models indicate that whilst the high level drivers that affect each ecological group are largely similar, the output processes performed by the biota and the resulting ecosystem functions vary both in number and importance between groups. Confidence within the models as a whole is generally high, reflecting the level of information gathered during the literature review. Physical drivers which influence the ecosystem were found to be of high importance for the sublittoral rock habitat, with factors such as wave exposure, water depth and water currents noted to be crucial in defining the biological assemblages. Other important factors such as recruitment/propagule supply, and those which affect primary production, such as suspended sediments, light attenuation and water chemistry and temperature, were also noted to be key and act to influence the food sources consumed by the biological assemblages of the habitat, and the biological assemblages themselves. Output processes performed by the biological assemblages are variable between ecological groups depending on the specific flora and fauna present and the role they perform within the ecosystem. Of particular importance are the outputs performed by the macroalgae group, which are diverse in nature and exert influence over other ecological groups in the habitat. Important output processes from the habitat as a whole include primary and secondary production, bioengineering, biodeposition (in mixed sediment habitats) and the supply of propagules; these in turn influence ecosystem functions at the local scale such as nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, supply of food resources, sediment stability (in mixed sediment habitats), habitat provision and population and algae control. The export of biodiversity and organic matter, biodiversity enhancement and biotope stability are the resulting ecosystem functions that occur at the regional to global scale. Features within the models that are most useful for monitoring habitat status and change due to natural variation have been identified, as have those that may be useful for monitoring to identify anthropogenic causes of change within the ecosystem. Biological, physical and chemical features of the ecosystem have been identified as potential indicators to monitor natural variation, whereas biological factors and those physical /chemical factors most likely to affect primary production have predominantly been identified as most likely to indicate change due to anthropogenic pressures.

Ecological modelling of the phytoplankton dynamics in the northern Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea)

The Gulf of Aqaba represents a small scale, easy to access, regional analogue of larger oceanic oligotrophic systems. In this Gulf, the seasonal cycles of stratification and mixing drives the seasonal phytoplankton dynamics. In summer and fall, when nutrient concentrations are very low, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are more abundant in the surface water. This two populations are exposed to phosphate limitation. During winter mixing, when nutrient concentrations are high, Chlorophyceae and Cryptophyceae are dominant but scarce or absent during summer. In this study it was tried to develop a simulation model based on historical data to predict the phytoplankton dynamics in the northern Gulf of Aqaba. The purpose is to understand what forces operate, and how, to determine the phytoplankton dynamics in this Gulf. To make the models data sampled in two different sampling station (Fish Farm Station and Station A) were used. The data of chemical, biological and physical factors, are available from 14th January 2007 to 28th December 2009. The Fish Farm Station point was near a Fish Farm that was operational until 17th June 2008, complete closure date of the Fish Farm, about halfway through the total sampling time. The Station A sampling point is about 13 Km away from the Fish Farm Station. To build the model, the MATLAB software was used (version 7.6.0.324 R2008a), in particular a tool named Simulink. The Fish Farm Station models shows that the Fish Farm activity has altered the nutrient concentrations and as a consequence the normal phytoplankton dynamics. Despite the distance between the two sampling stations, there might be an influence from the Fish Farm activities also in the Station A ecosystem. The models about this sampling station shows that the Fish Farm impact appears to be much lower than the impact in the Fish Farm Station, because the phytoplankton dynamics appears to be driven mainly by the seasonal mixing cycle.

Ecological modelling for next generation sequencing data

Le tecniche di next generation sequencing costituiscono un potente strumento per diverse applicazioni, soprattutto da quando i loro costi sono iniziati a calare e la qualità dei loro dati a migliorare. Una delle applicazioni del sequencing è certamente la metagenomica, ovvero l'analisi di microorganismi entro un dato ambiente, come per esempio quello dell'intestino. In quest'ambito il sequencing ha permesso di campionare specie batteriche a cui non si riusciva ad accedere con le tradizionali tecniche di coltura. Lo studio delle popolazioni batteriche intestinali è molto importante in quanto queste risultano alterate come effetto ma anche causa di numerose malattie, come quelle metaboliche (obesità, diabete di tipo 2, etc.). In questo lavoro siamo partiti da dati di next generation sequencing del microbiota intestinale di 5 animali (16S rRNA sequencing) [Jeraldo et al.]. Abbiamo applicato algoritmi ottimizzati (UCLUST) per clusterizzare le sequenze generate in OTU (Operational Taxonomic Units), che corrispondono a cluster di specie batteriche ad un determinato livello tassonomico. Abbiamo poi applicato la teoria ecologica a master equation sviluppata da [Volkov et al.] per descrivere la distribuzione dell'abbondanza relativa delle specie (RSA) per i nostri campioni. La RSA è uno strumento ormai validato per lo studio della biodiversità dei sistemi ecologici e mostra una transizione da un andamento a logserie ad uno a lognormale passando da piccole comunità locali isolate a più grandi metacomunità costituite da più comunità locali che possono in qualche modo interagire. Abbiamo mostrato come le OTU di popolazioni batteriche intestinali costituiscono un sistema ecologico che segue queste stesse regole se ottenuto usando diverse soglie di similarità nella procedura di clustering. Ci aspettiamo quindi che questo risultato possa essere sfruttato per la comprensione della dinamica delle popolazioni batteriche e quindi di come queste variano in presenza di particolari malattie.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Testable models of aquatic systems: A NERC special topic for integrating experiments and modelling

A major part of the support for fundamental research on aquatic ecosystems continues to be provided by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funds are released for ”thematic” studies in a selected special topic or programme. ”Testable Models of Aquatic Ecosystems” was a Special Topic of the NERC, initiated in 1995, the aim of which was to promote ecological modelling by making new links between experimental aquatic biologists and state-of-the-art modellers. The Topic covered both marine and freshwater systems. This paper summarises projects on aspects of the responses of individual organisms to the effects of environmental variability, on the assembly, permanence and resilience of communities, and on aspects of spatial models. The authors conclude that the NERC Special Topic has been highly successful in promoting the development and application of models, most particularly through the interplay between experimental ecologists and formal modellers.

Empirical modelling of submersed macrophytes in Yangtze lakes

Submersed macrophytes in Yangtze lakes have experienced large-scale declines due to the increasing human activities during past decades. To seek the key factor that affects their growth, monthly investigations of submersed macrophytes were conducted in 20 regions of four Yangtze lakes during December, 2001-March, 2003. Analyses based on annual values show that the ratio of Secchi depth to mean depth is the key factor (50% of macrophyte biomass variability among these lakes is statistically explained). Further analyses also demonstrate that the months from March to June are not only the actively growing season for most macrophytes, but the key time the factor acts. Five key-time models yielding higher predictive power (r(2) reaches 0.75,0.76,0.77,0.69 and 0.81) are generated. A comparison between key-time models and traditional synchronic ones indicates that key-time models have higher predictive power. Analyses of transparency thresholds during macrophyte growing season and the limitations of the models are presented. The models and other results may benefit the work concerning submersed macrophyte recovery in Yangtze lakes. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.