Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

Ebola vaccine R&D: Filling the knowledge gaps

With an emphasis on systems analyses, the VSV-EBOVAC project harnesses state-of-the-art technologies that illuminate mechanisms behind the observed immunogenicity and reactogenicity of the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine and ensures that such information is shared among stakeholders.

A system for functional analysis of Ebola virus glycoprotein

Ebola virus causes hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates, resulting in mortality rates of up to 90%. Studies of this virus have been hampered by its extraordinary pathogenicity, which requires biosafety level 4 containment. To circumvent this problem, we developed a novel complementation system for functional analysis of Ebola virus glycoproteins. It relies on a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) that contains the green fluorescent protein gene instead of the receptor-binding G protein gene (VSVΔG*). Herein we show that Ebola Reston virus glycoprotein (ResGP) is efficiently incorporated into VSV particles. This recombinant VSV with integrated ResGP (VSVΔG*-ResGP) infected primate cells more efficiently than any of the other mammalian or avian cells examined, in a manner consistent with the host range tropism of Ebola virus, whereas VSVΔG* complemented with VSV G protein (VSVΔG*-G) efficiently infected the majority of the cells tested. We also tested the utility of this system for investigating the cellular receptors for Ebola virus. Chemical modification of cells to alter their surface proteins markedly reduced their susceptibility to VSVΔG*-ResGP but not to VSVΔG*-G. These findings suggest that cell surface glycoproteins with N-linked oligosaccharide chains contribute to the entry of Ebola viruses, presumably acting as a specific receptor and/or cofactor for virus entry. Thus, our VSV system should be useful for investigating the functions of glycoproteins from highly pathogenic viruses or those incapable of being cultured in vitro.

The central structural feature of the membrane fusion protein subunit from the Ebola virus glycoprotein is a long triple-stranded coiled coil

The ectodomain of the Ebola virus Gp2 glycoprotein was solubilized with a trimeric, isoleucine zipper derived from GCN4 (pIIGCN4) in place of the hydrophobic fusion peptide at the N terminus. This chimeric molecule forms a trimeric, highly α-helical, and very thermostable molecule, as determined by chemical crosslinking and circular dichroism. Electron microscopy indicates that Gp2 folds into a rod-like structure like influenza HA2 and HIV-1 gp41, providing further evidence that viral fusion proteins from diverse families such as Orthomyxoviridae (Influenza), Retroviridae (HIV-1), and Filoviridae (Ebola) share common structural features, and suggesting a common membrane fusion mechanism.

The virion glycoproteins of Ebola viruses are encoded in two reading frames and are expressed through transcriptional editing.

In late 1994 and early 1995, Ebola (EBO) virus dramatically reemerged in Africa, causing human disease in the Ivory Coast and Zaire. Analysis of the entire glycoprotein genes of these viruses and those of other EBO virus subtypes has shown that the virion glycoprotein (130 kDa) is encoded in two reading frames, which are linked by transcriptional editing. This editing results in the addition of an extra nontemplated adenosine within a run of seven adenosines near the middle of the coding region. The primary gene product is a smaller (50-70 kDa), nonstructural, secreted glycoprotein, which is produced in large amounts and has an unknown function. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that EBO virus subtypes are genetically diverse and that the recent Ivory Coast isolate represents a new (fourth) subtype of EBO virus. In contrast, the EBO virus isolate from the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Zaire, is virtually identical to the virus that caused a similar epidemic in Yambuku, Zaire, almost 20 years earlier. This genetic stability may indicate that EBO viruses have coevolved with their natural reservoirs and do not change appreciably in the wild.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus glycoprotein GP is not cytotoxic when expressed constitutively at a moderate level

Transient expression of Ebola virus (EBOV) glycoprotein GP causes downregulation of surface proteins, cell rounding and detachment, a phenomenon believed to play a central role in the pathogenicity of the virus. In this study, evidence that moderate expression of GP does not result in such morphological changes was provided. It was shown that GP continuously produced in 293T cells from the Kunjin virus replicon was correctly processed and transported to the plasma membrane without affecting the surface expression of beta 1 and alpha 5 integrins and major histocompatibility complex I molecules. The level of GIP expression in Kunjin replicon GP-expressing cells was similar to that observed in cells infected with EBOV early in infection and lower than that produced in cells transfected with plasmid DNA, phCMV-GP(1) expressing GP from a strong promoter. Importantly, transient transfection of Kunjin replicon GIP-expressing cells with GIP-coding plasmid DNA resulted in overexpression of GP, which lead to the downregulation of surface molecules and massive rounding and detachment of transfected cells. Here, it was also demonstrated that cell rounding and downregulation of the surface markers are the late events in EBOV infection, whereas synthesis and massive release of virus particles occur at early steps and do not cause significant cytotoxic effects. These findings indicate that the synthesis of EBOV GP in virus-infected cells is controlled well by several mechanisms that do not allow GP overexpression and hence the early appearance of its cytotoxic properties.

Fearonomics and the Role of Nigeria's Private Sector in the Nigerian Ebola Response

Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola have dramatic economic impacts on affected nations due to significant direct costs and indirect costs, as well as increased expenditure by the government to meet the health and security crisis. Despite its dense population, Nigeria was able to contain the outbreak swiftly and was declared Ebola free on 13th October 2014. Although Nigeria’s Ebola containment success was multifaceted, the private sector played a key role in Nigeria’s fight against Ebola. An epidemic of a disease like Ebola, not only consumes health resources but also detrimentally disrupts trade and travel to impact both public and private sector resulting in the ‘fearonomic’ effect of the contagion. In this thesis, I have defined ‘fearonomics’ or the ‘fearonomic effects’ of a disease as the intangible and intangible economic effects of both informed and misinformed aversion behavior exhibited by individuals, organizations, or countries during an outbreak. During an infectious disease outbreak, there is a significant potential for public-private sector collaborations that can help offset some of the government’s cost of controlling the epidemic.

Objective: The main objective of this study is to understand the ‘fearonomics’ of Ebola in Nigeria and to evaluate the role of the key private sector stakeholders in Nigeria’s Ebola response.

Methods: This retrospective qualitative study was conducted in Nigeria and utilizes grounded theory to look across different economic sectors in Nigeria to understand the impact of Ebola on Nigeria’s private sector and how it dealt with the various challenges posed by the disease and its ‘fearonomic effects'.

Results: Due to swift containment of Ebola in Nigeria, the economic impact of the disease was limited especially in comparison to the other Ebola-infected countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. However, the 2014 Ebola outbreak had more than a just direct impact on the country’s economy and despite the swift containment, no economic sector was immune to the disease’s fearonomic impact. The potential scale of the fearonomic impact of a disease like Ebola was one of the key motivators for the private sector engagement in the Ebola response.

The private sector in Nigeria played an essential role in facilitating the country’s response to Ebola. The private sector not only provided in-cash donations but significant in-kind support to both the Federal and State governments during the outbreak. Swift establishment of an Ebola Emergency Operation Centre (EEOC) was essential to the country’s response and was greatly facilitated by the private sector, showcasing the crucial role of private sector in the initial phase of an outbreak. The private sector contributed to Nigeria’s fight against Ebola not only by donating material assets but by continuing operations and partaking in knowledge sharing and advocacy. Some sector such as the private health sector, telecom sector, financial sector, oil and gas sector played a unique role in orchestrating the Nigerian Ebola response and were among the first movers during the outbreak.

This paper utilizes the lessons from Nigeria’s containment of Ebola to highlight the potential of public-private partnerships in preparedness, response, and recovery during an outbreak.

A monovalent chimpanzee adenovirus Ebola vaccine boosted with MVA

BACKGROUND The West African outbreak of Ebola virus disease that peaked in 2014 has caused more than 11,000 deaths. The development of an effective Ebola vaccine is a priority for control of a future outbreak. METHODS In this phase 1 study, we administered a single dose of the chimpanzee adenovirus 3 (ChAd3) vaccine encoding the surface glycoprotein of Zaire ebolavirus (ZEBOV) to 60 healthy adult volunteers in Oxford, United Kingdom. The vaccine was administered in three dose levels — 1×1010 viral particles, 2.5×1010 viral particles, and 5×1010 viral particles — with 20 participants in each group. We then assessed the effect of adding a booster dose of a modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) strain, encoding the same Ebola virus glyco- protein, in 30 of the 60 participants and evaluated a reduced prime–boost interval in another 16 participants. We also compared antibody responses to inactivated whole Ebola virus virions and neutralizing antibody activity with those observed in phase 1 studies of a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus–based vaccine expressing a ZEBOV glycoprotein (rVSV-ZEBOV) to determine relative potency and assess durability. RESULTS No safety concerns were identified at any of the dose levels studied. Four weeks after immunization with the ChAd3 vaccine, ZEBOV-specific antibody responses were similar to those induced by rVSV-ZEBOV vaccination, with a geometric mean titer of 752 and 921, respectively. ZEBOV neutralization activity was also similar with the two vaccines (geo- metric mean titer, 14.9 and 22.2, respectively). Boosting with the MVA vector increased virus-specific antibodies by a factor of 12 (geometric mean titer, 9007) and increased glycoprotein-specific CD8+ T cells by a factor of 5. Significant increases in neutralizing antibodies were seen after boosting in all 30 participants (geometric mean titer, 139; P<0.001). Virus-specific antibody responses in participants primed with ChAd3 remained positive 6 months after vaccination (geometric mean titer, 758) but were significantly higher in those who had received the MVA booster (geometric mean titer, 1750; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The ChAd3 vaccine boosted with MVA elicited B-cell and T-cell immune responses to ZEBOV that were superior to those induced by the ChAd3 vaccine alone. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02240875.)

Ebola virus disease 2014

Ebola virus disease was irst described in 1976 originating from the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Since then, Ebola virus has become an important public health threat in Africa, and now it is of great concern worldwide due to the recent outbreaks (9216 cases with 4555 deaths up to October 20th, 2014), and it is so far the largest and deadliest recorded in history. Five Ebola virus species have been identiied (including Zaire, Sudan, Ivory Coast, Reston, and Bundibugyo Ebola virus), and four of them have proved to be highly pathogenic for both human and non-human primates, causing viral hemorrhagic fever with case fatality rates of up to 90%, for which no approved therapeutics or vaccines are currently available. Ebola virus infections are characterized by immune suppression and a systemic inlammatory response that causes impairment of the vascular, coagulation, and immune systems, leading to multiorgan failure and shock, and thus, in some ways, resembling septic shock. The major affected countries, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Nigeria, have been struggling to contain and to mitigate the outbreak. Gene sequencing of the 2014 virus (2014WA) outbreak has demonstrated 98% homology with the Zaire Ebola virus, with a 49% case fatality ratio across the affected countries. In this review the characteristics of the viruses, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, and the cases reported in health care workers (HCW) are described, as well as a summary of outbreaks of the virus since its discovery, including these last two outbreaks in Africa.