Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe

This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs, while for the fourth RCM this is related to deficiencies in the land surface parametrization. The AGCM does not show this drying problem. For the Baltic Sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. This model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations, such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes.

Flooding tolerance in four 'Garrigue' landscape plants: implications for their future use in the urban landscapes of north-west Europe?

Within a changing climate, Mediterranean ‘Garrigue’ xerophytes are increasingly recommended as suitable urban landscape plants in north-west Europe, based on their capacity to tolerate high temperature and reduced water availability during summer. Such species, however, have a poor reputation for tolerating waterlogged soils; paradoxically a phenomenon that may also increase in north-west Europe due to predictions for both higher volumes of winter precipitation, and short, but intensive periods of summer rainfall. This study investigated flooding tolerance in four landscape ‘Garrigue’ species, Stachys byzantina, Cistus × hybridus, Lavandula angustifolia and Salvia officinalis. Despite evolving in a dry habitat, the four species tested proved remarkably resilient to flooding. All species survived 17 days flooding in winter, with Stachys and Lavandula also surviving equivalent flooding duration during summer. Photosynthesis and biomass production, however, were strongly inhibited by flooding although the most tolerant species, Stachys quickly restored its photosynthetic capacity on termination of flooding. Overall, survival rates were comparable to previous studies on other terrestrial (including wetland) species. Subsequent experiments using Salvia (a species we identified as ‘intermediate’ in tolerance) clearly demonstrated adaptations to waterlogging, e.g. acclimation against anoxia when pre-treated with hypoxia. Despite anecdotal information to the contrary, we found no evidence to suggest that these xerophytic species are particularly intolerant of waterlogging. Other climatic and biotic factors may restrict the viability and distribution of these species within the urban conurbations of north-west Europe, but we believe increased incidence of flooding per se should not preclude their consideration.

NATO, Britain, France and the FRG: Nuclear Strategies and Forces for Europe, 1949-2000

This is vol. I of my two-volume study of the nuclear strategies/strategy preferences of NATO collectively, and individually of Britain, France, and West Germany in the Cold War. It shows that NATO strategy was a fragile compromise, and that these three countries, all within range of Soviet medium/intermediate range nuclear missiles and thus with less geostrategic difference than in previous military threat contexts, had wildly divergent strategies/preferences which cannot be explained merely by geography. It raises the question of what made them so different, addressed in Volume II "Nuclear Mentalities" (q.v.)

Securing Peace in Europe, 1945-62: Thoughts for the Post-Cold War Era

Articles include: Beatrice Heuser: ‘Stalin as Hitler's Successor: Western Interpretations of the Soviet threat', pp. 17-40

‘New World and Old Europe: American Screen Images of Britain and France‘

Contrary to the dearly held belief by Britons that among the nations of the world, they are the favourites of the Americans, Holliwood movies show that even today, judging by the accents of "baddies", the English incarnate the arch-enemy. French villains come a close second. Britain and France are the reactionary, corrupt "old Europe" from whom the Americans tried to cut away ever since 1775, and it is actually the Central-East European countries who as "new Europe" enjoy greater popularity as bearers of hope.

The earth, the sky and the water's edge: changing beliefs in the earlier prehistory of Northern Europe

There have been two kinds of study of ancient beliefs in the earlier prehistory of Scandinavia. One considers the impact of ideas which originated further to the south and east. It considers a cosmology based on the movements of the sun. A second tradition develops out of the ethnography of the circumpolar region and combines archaeological evidence with the beliefs of hunter-gatherers. It postulates the existence of a three-tier cosmology in which people could communicate between different worlds. This paper argues that certain elements that are thought to epitomize the ‘Southern’ system might have been suggested by existing ideas within Scandinavia itself. Both sets of beliefs came to influence one another, but they became increasingly distinct towards the end of the Bronze Age. This paper reconsiders the rock carvings, metalwork and mortuary cairns of that period and the Iron Age in relation to the process of religious change.

‘Keystone in the Division of Europe: Germany in the Cold War’

Review essay on literature on the role of Germany in the Cold War