Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Impromptu : an interactive programming environment for composition and performance

Interactive development environments are making a resurgence. The traditional batch style of programming, edit -> compile -> run, is slowly being reevaluated by the development community at large. Languages such as Perl, Python and Ruby are at the heart of a new programming culture commonly described as extreme, agile or dynamic. Musicians are also beginning to embrace these environments and to investigate the opportunity to use dynamic programming tools in live performance. This paper provides an introduction to Impromptu, a new interactive development environment for musicians and sound artists.

Model Predictive Static Programming: A Computationally Efficient Technique For Suboptimal Control Design

Combining the philosophies of nonlinear model predictive control and approximate dynamic programming, a new suboptimal control design technique is presented in this paper, named as model predictive static programming (MPSP), which is applicable for finite-horizon nonlinear problems with terminal constraints. This technique is computationally efficient, and hence, can possibly be implemented online. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by designing an ascent phase guidance scheme for a ballistic missile propelled by solid motors. A comparison study with a conventional gradient method shows that the MPSP solution is quite close to the optimal solution.

A Nonlinear Approach for Re-entry Guidance of Reusable Launch Vehicles Using Model Predictive Static Programming

A nonlinear suboptimal guidance scheme is developed for the reentry phase of the reusable launch vehicles. A recently developed methodology, named as model predictive static programming (MPSP), is implemented which combines the philosophies of nonlinear model predictive control theory and approximate dynamic programming. This technique provides a finite time nonlinear suboptimal guidance law which leads to a rapid solution of the guidance history update. It does not have to suffer from computational difficulties and can be implemented online. The system dynamics is propagated through the flight corridor to the end of the reentry phase considering energy as independent variable and angle of attack as the active control variable. All the terminal constraints are satisfied. Among the path constraints, the normal load is found to be very constrictive. Hence, an extra effort has been made to keep the normal load within a specified limit and monitoring its sensitivity to the perturbation.

Optimal control of grinding mill circuit using model predictive static programming: A new nonlinear MPC paradigm

The recently developed reference-command tracking version of model predictive static programming (MPSP) is successfully applied to a single-stage closed grinding mill circuit. MPSP is an innovative optimal control technique that combines the philosophies of model predictive control (MPC) and approximate dynamic programming. The performance of the proposed MPSP control technique, which can be viewed as a `new paradigm' under the nonlinear MPC philosophy, is compared to the performance of a standard nonlinear MPC technique applied to the same plant for the same conditions. Results show that the MPSP control technique is more than capable of tracking the desired set-point in the presence of model-plant mismatch, disturbances and measurement noise. The performance of MPSP and nonlinear MPC compare very well, with definite advantages offered by MPSP. The computational speed of MPSP is increased through a sequence of innovations such as the conversion of the dynamic optimization problem to a low-dimensional static optimization problem, the recursive computation of sensitivity matrices and using a closed form expression to update the control. To alleviate the burden on the optimization procedure in standard MPC, the control horizon is normally restricted. However, in the MPSP technique the control horizon is extended to the prediction horizon with a minor increase in the computational time. Furthermore, the MPSP technique generally takes only a couple of iterations to converge, even when input constraints are applied. Therefore, MPSP can be regarded as a potential candidate for online applications of the nonlinear MPC philosophy to real-world industrial process plants. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous Localization and Recognition of Dynamic Hand Gestures

A framework for the simultaneous localization and recognition of dynamic hand gestures is proposed. At the core of this framework is a dynamic space-time warping (DSTW) algorithm, that aligns a pair of query and model gestures in both space and time. For every frame of the query sequence, feature detectors generate multiple hand region candidates. Dynamic programming is then used to compute both a global matching cost, which is used to recognize the query gesture, and a warping path, which aligns the query and model sequences in time, and also finds the best hand candidate region in every query frame. The proposed framework includes translation invariant recognition of gestures, a desirable property for many HCI systems. The performance of the approach is evaluated on a dataset of hand signed digits gestured by people wearing short sleeve shirts, in front of a background containing other non-hand skin-colored objects. The algorithm simultaneously localizes the gesturing hand and recognizes the hand-signed digit. Although DSTW is illustrated in a gesture recognition setting, the proposed algorithm is a general method for matching time series, that allows for multiple candidate feature vectors to be extracted at each time step.

Hydrocarbon field size distributions: a case study in mixed integer nonlinear programming

Of key importance to oil and gas companies is the size distribution of fields in the areas that they are drilling. Recent arguments suggest that there are many more fields yet to be discovered in mature provinces than had previously been thought because the underlying distribution is monotonic not peaked. According to this view the peaked nature of the distribution for discovered fields reflects not the underlying distribution but the effect of economic truncation. This paper contributes to the discussion by analysing up-to-date exploration and discovery data for two mature provinces using the discovery-process model, based on sampling without replacement and implicitly including economic truncation effects. The maximum likelihood estimation involved generates a high-dimensional mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. A highly efficient solution strategy is tested, exploiting the separable structure and handling the integer constraints by treating the problem as a masked allocation problem in dynamic programming.

A model of dynamic liquidity contracts

I study long-term financial contracts between lenders and borrowers in the absence of perfect enforceability and when both parties are credit constrained. Borrowers repeatedly have projects to undertake and need external financing. Lenders can commit to contractual agreements whereas borrowers can renege any period. I show that equilibrium contracts feature interesting dynamics: the economy exhibits efficient investment cycles; absence of perfect enforcement and shortage of capital skew the cycles toward states of liquidity drought; credit is rationed if either the lender has too little capital or if the borrower has too little collateral. This paper's technical contribution is its demonstration of the existence and characterization of financial contracts that are solutions to a non-convex dynamic programming problem.

A dynamic sequential route choice model for micro-simulation

Dans les études sur le transport, les modèles de choix de route décrivent la sélection par un utilisateur d’un chemin, depuis son origine jusqu’à sa destination. Plus précisément, il s’agit de trouver dans un réseau composé d’arcs et de sommets la suite d’arcs reliant deux sommets, suivant des critères donnés. Nous considérons dans le présent travail l’application de la programmation dynamique pour représenter le processus de choix, en considérant le choix d’un chemin comme une séquence de choix d’arcs. De plus, nous mettons en œuvre les techniques d’approximation en programmation dynamique afin de représenter la connaissance imparfaite de l’état réseau, en particulier pour les arcs éloignés du point actuel. Plus précisément, à chaque fois qu’un utilisateur atteint une intersection, il considère l’utilité d’un certain nombre d’arcs futurs, puis une estimation est faite pour le restant du chemin jusqu’à la destination. Le modèle de choix de route est implanté dans le cadre d’un modèle de simulation de trafic par événements discrets. Le modèle ainsi construit est testé sur un modèle de réseau routier réel afin d’étudier sa performance.

Threshold dynamic time warping for spatial activity recognition

Non-invasive spatial activity recognition is a difficult task, complicated by variation in how the same activities are conducted and furthermore by noise introduced by video tracking procedures. In this paper we propose an algorithm based on dynamic time warping (DTW) as a viable method with which to quantify segmented spatial activity sequences from a video tracking system. DTW is a widely used technique for optimally aligning or warping temporal sequences through minimisation of the distance between their components. The proposed algorithm threshold DTW (TDTW) is capable of accurate spatial sequence distance quantification and is shown using a three class spatial data set to be more robust and accurate than DTW and the discrete hidden markov model (HMM). We also evaluate the application of a band dynamic programming (DP) constraint to TDTW in order to reduce extraneous warping between sequences and to reduce the computation complexity of the approach. Results show that application of a band DP constraint to TDTW improves runtime performance significantly, whilst still maintaining a high precision and recall.

Design of SPR systems with dynamic compensators and output variable structure control

This paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for the following problem: given a linear time invariant plant G(s) = N(s)D(s)-1 = C(sI - A]-1B, with m inputs, p outputs, p > m, rank(C) = p, rank(B) = rank(CB) = m, £nd a tandem dynamic controller Gc(s) = D c(s)-1Nc(s) = Cc(sI - A c)-1Bc + Dc, with p inputs and m outputs and a constant output feedback matrix Ko ε ℝm×p such that the feedback system is Strictly Positive Real (SPR). It is shown that this problem has solution if and only if all transmission zeros of the plant have negative real parts. When there exists solution, the proposed method firstly obtains Gc(s) in order to all transmission zeros of Gc(s)G(s) present negative real parts and then Ko is found as the solution of some Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Then, taking into account this result, a new LMI based design for output Variable Structure Control (VSC) of uncertain dynamic plants is presented. The method can consider the following design specifications: matched disturbances or nonlinearities of the plant, output constraints, decay rate and matched and nonmatched plant uncertainties. © 2006 IEEE.

Dynamic partitioning in the array language OL/2 /

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Dynamic, convex, and robust optimization with Bayesian learning for response-guided dosing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Dynamic breast MRI: Image registration and its impact on enhancement curve estimation

A novel algorithm for performing registration of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI data of the breast is presented. It is based on an algorithm known as iterated dynamic programming originally devised to solve the stereo matching problem. Using artificially distorted DCE-MRI breast images it is shown that the proposed algorithm is able to correct for movement and distortions over a larger range than is likely to occur during routine clinical examination. In addition, using a clinical DCE-MRI data set with an expertly labeled suspicious region, it is shown that the proposed algorithm significantly reduces the variability of the enhancement curves at the pixel level yielding more pronounced uptake and washout phases.