NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Decomposition of human behavior using model of competencies: application to robotic control system

For many years, humans and machines have shared the same physical space. To facilitate their interaction with humans, their social integration and for more rational behavior has been sought that the robots demonstrate human-like behavior. For this it is necessary to understand how human behavior is generated, discuss what tasks are performed and how relate to themselves, for subsequent implementation in robots. In this paper, we propose a model of competencies based on human neuroregulator system for analysis and decomposition of behavior into functional modules. Using this model allow separate and locate the tasks to be implemented in a robot that displays human-like behavior. As an example, we show the application of model to the autonomous movement behavior on unfamiliar environments and its implementation in various simulated and real robots with different physical configurations and physical devices of different nature. The main result of this work has been to build a model of competencies that is being used to build robotic systems capable of displaying behaviors similar to humans and consider the specific characteristics of robots.

Model of Competencies for Decomposition of Human Behavior: Application to Control System of Robots

Humans and machines have shared the same physical space for many years. To share the same space, we want the robots to behave like human beings. This will facilitate their social integration, their interaction with humans and create an intelligent behavior. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how human behavior is generated, analyze tasks running our nerves and how they relate to them. Then and only then can we implement these mechanisms in robotic beings. In this study, we propose a model of competencies based on human neuroregulator system for analysis and decomposition of behavior into functional modules. Using this model allow separate and locate the tasks to be implemented in a robot that displays human-like behavior. As an example, we show the application of model to the autonomous movement behavior on unfamiliar environments and its implementation in various simulated and real robots with different physical configurations and physical devices of different nature. The main result of this study has been to build a model of competencies that is being used to build robotic systems capable of displaying behaviors similar to humans and consider the specific characteristics of robots.

A controller display technique for a terminal air traffic control system.

"Contract no. FAA/BRD-15, Task order no. 14. Prepared for Federal Aviation Agency, Bureau of Research and Development, Systems Analysis Division."

Development of Database for Distributed Information Measurement and Control System

The purpose of this work is the development of database of the distributed information measurement and control system that implements methods of optical spectroscopy for plasma physics research and atomic collisions and provides remote access to information and hardware resources within the Intranet/Internet networks. The database is based on database management system Oracle9i. Client software was realized in Java language. The software was developed using Model View Controller architecture, which separates application data from graphical presentation components and input processing logic. The following graphical presentations were implemented: measurement of radiation spectra of beam and plasma objects, excitation function for non-elastic collisions of heavy particles and analysis of data acquired in preceding experiments. The graphical clients have the following functionality of the interaction with the database: browsing information on experiments of a certain type, searching for data with various criteria, and inserting the information about preceding experiments.

Signal processing and information fusing algorithms for the synthesis of an alternative electromyogram/eye gaze tracking computer cursor control system

This research pursued the conceptualization and real-time verification of a system that allows a computer user to control the cursor of a computer interface without using his/her hands. The target user groups for this system are individuals who are unable to use their hands due to spinal dysfunction or other afflictions, and individuals who must use their hands for higher priority tasks while still requiring interaction with a computer. ^ The system receives two forms of input from the user: Electromyogram (EMG) signals from muscles in the face and point-of-gaze coordinates produced by an Eye Gaze Tracking (EGT) system. In order to produce reliable cursor control from the two forms of user input, the development of this EMG/EGT system addressed three key requirements: an algorithm was created to accurately translate EMG signals due to facial movements into cursor actions, a separate algorithm was created that recognized an eye gaze fixation and provided an estimate of the associated eye gaze position, and an information fusion protocol was devised to efficiently integrate the outputs of these algorithms. ^ Experiments were conducted to compare the performance of EMG/EGT cursor control to EGT-only control and mouse control. These experiments took the form of two different types of point-and-click trials. The data produced by these experiments were evaluated using statistical analysis, Fitts' Law analysis and target re-entry (TRE) analysis. ^ The experimental results revealed that though EMG/EGT control was slower than EGT-only and mouse control, it provided effective hands-free control of the cursor without a spatial accuracy limitation, and it also facilitated a reliable click operation. This combination of qualities is not possessed by either EGT-only or mouse control, making EMG/EGT cursor control a unique and practical alternative for a user's cursor control needs. ^

Quantification of the human postural control system to perturbations

Human standing posture is inherently unstable. The postural control system (PCS), which maintains standing posture, is composed of the sensory, musculoskeletal, and central nervous systems. Together these systems integrate sensory afferents and generate appropriate motor efferents to adjust posture. The PCS maintains the body center of mass (COM) with respect to the base of support while constantly resisting destabilizing forces from internal and external perturbations. To assess the human PCS, postural sway during quiet standing or in response to external perturbation have frequently been examined descriptively. Minimal work has been done to understand and quantify the robustness of the PCS to perturbations. Further, there have been some previous attempts to assess the dynamical systems aspects of the PCS or time evolutionary properties of postural sway. However those techniques can only provide summary information about the PCS characteristics; they cannot provide specific information about or recreate the actual sway behavior. This dissertation consists of two parts: part I, the development of two novel methods to assess the human PCS and, part II, the application of these methods. In study 1, a systematic method for analyzing the human PCS during perturbed stance was developed. A mild impulsive perturbation that subjects can easily experience in their daily lives was used. A measure of robustness of the PCS, 1/MaxSens that was based on the inverse of the sensitivity of the system, was introduced. 1/MaxSens successfully quantified the reduced robustness to external perturbations due to age-related degradation of the PCS. In study 2, a stochastic model was used to better understand the human PCS in terms of dynamical systems aspect. This methodology also has the advantage over previous methods in that the sway behavior is captured in a model that can be used to recreate the random oscillatory properties of the PCS. The invariant density which describes the long-term stationary behavior of the center of pressure (COP) was computed from a Markov chain model that was applied to postural sway data during quiet stance. In order to validate the Invariant Density Analysis (IDA), we applied the technique to COP data from different age groups. We found that older adults swayed farther from the centroid and in more stochastic and random manner than young adults. In part II, the tools developed in part I were applied to both occupational and clinical situations. In study 3, 1/MaxSens and IDA were applied to a population of firefighters to investigate the effects of air bottle configuration (weight and size) and vision on the postural stability of firefighters. We found that both air bottle weight and loss of vision, but not size of air bottle, significantly decreased balance performance and increased fall risk. In study 4, IDA was applied to data collected on 444 community-dwelling elderly adults from the MOBILIZE Boston Study. Four out of five IDA parameters were able to successfully differentiate recurrent fallers from non-fallers, while only five out of 30 more common descriptive and stochastic COP measures could distinguish the two groups. Fall history and the IDA parameter of entropy were found to be significant risk factors for falls. This research proposed a new measure for the PCS robustness (1/MaxSens) and a new technique for quantifying the dynamical systems aspect of the PCS (IDA). These new PCS analysis techniques provide easy and effective ways to assess the PCS in occupational and clinical environments.

A framework for analyzing system intelligence of the building control system : a study of the integrated building management system

The lack of satisfactory consensus for characterizing the system intelligence and structured analytical decision models has inhibited the developers and practitioners to understand and configure optimum intelligent building systems in a fully informed manner. So far, little research has been conducted in this aspect. This research is designed to identify the key intelligent indicators, and develop analytical models for computing the system intelligence score of smart building system in the intelligent building. The integrated building management system (IBMS) was used as an illustrative example to present a framework. The models presented in this study applied the system intelligence theory, and the conceptual analytical framework. A total of 16 key intelligent indicators were first identified from a general survey. Then, two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and analytic network process (ANP), were employed to develop the system intelligence analytical models. Top intelligence indicators of IBMS include: self-diagnostic of operation deviations; adaptive limiting control algorithm; and, year-round time schedule performance. The developed conceptual framework was then transformed to the practical model. The effectiveness of the practical model was evaluated by means of expert validation. The main contribution of this research is to promote understanding of the intelligent indicators, and to set the foundation for a systemic framework that provide developers and building stakeholders a consolidated inclusive tool for the system intelligence evaluation of the proposed components design configurations.

Virtual fencing applications : Implementing and testing an automated cattle control system

Managing livestock movement in extensive systems has environmental and production benefits. Currently permanent wire fencing is used to control cattle; this is both expensive and inflexible. Cattle are known to respond to auditory and visual cues and we investigated whether these can be used to manipulate their behaviour. Twenty-five Belmont Red steers with a mean live weight of 270kg were each randomly assigned to one of five treatments. Treatments consisted of a combination of cues (audio, tactile and visual stimuli) and consequence (electrical stimulation). The treatments were electrical stimulation alone, audio plus electrical stimulation, vibration plus electrical stimulation, light plus electrical stimulation and electrified electric fence (6kV) plus electrical stimulation. Cue stimuli were administered for 3s followed immediately by electrical stimulation (consequence) of 1kV for 1s. The experiment tested the operational efficacy of an on-animal control or virtual fencing system. A collar-halter device was designed to carry the electronics, batteries and equipment providing the stimuli, including audio, vibration, light and electrical of a prototype virtual fencing device. Cattle were allowed to travel along a 40m alley to a group of peers and feed while their rate of travel and response to the stimuli were recorded. The prototype virtual fencing system was successful in modifying the behaviour of the cattle. The rate of travel of cattle along the alley demonstrated the large variability in behavioural response associated with tactile, visual and audible cues. The experiment demonstrated virtual fencing has potential for controlling cattle in extensive grazing systems. However, larger numbers of cattle need to be tested to derive a better understanding of the behavioural variance. Further controlled experimental work is also necessary to quantify the interaction between cues, consequences and cattle learning.

Low-cost flight control system for a small autonomous helicopter

In this paper we describe a low-cost flight control system for a small (60 class) helicopter which is part of a larger project to develop an autonomous flying vehicle. Our approach differs from that of others in not using an expensive inertial/GPS sensing system. The primary sensors for vehicle stabilization are a low-cost inertial sensor and a pair of CMOS cameras. We describe the architecture of our flight control system, the inertial and visual sensing subsystems and present some flight control results.