Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

Effects of buoyancy on Langmuir circulation

Based on the Navier-Stokes equation, an equation describing the Langmuir circulation is derived by a perturbation method when the influences of Coriolis force and buoyancy force are both considered. The approach used in the analysis is similar to the works carried out by Craik and Leibovich [J. Fluid Mech. 73 (1976) 401], Leibovich [J. Fluid Mech. 79 (1977) 715] and Huang [J. Fluid Mech. 91 (1979) 191]. Potential applications of the equation proposed are discussed in the area of Antarctic circumpolar current.

Cross-shelf circulation in the Yellow and East China Seas indicated by MODIS satellite observations

Ocean color and sea surface temperature data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite are used to study the cross-shelf circulation and transport of suspended sediments in the Yellow and the East China Seas. The ocean color images show a significant turbid water plume extending in the southeast direction from the Subei coasts of China to the shelf edge south of Cheju during fall-winter, suggesting significant cross-shelf currents in the Yellow Sea/East China Sea in winter. The currents transport suspended sediments from the area of the old Huanghe mouth into the Okinawa Trough. Part of the turbid plume joins the Yellow Sea Warm Current to enter the Yellow Sea trough in winter. The satellite images suggest that the time scales of cross-shelf transport and surface-to-subsurface descending of the suspended sediments are a few weeks. The turbid plume grows in fall, reaches its maximum expansion and intensity in winter-spring, and subsides in late spring. In summer, the plume becomes coastally trapped. Substantial interannual variations of the intensity and coverage of the turbid plume are indicated by the observations. In comparison, the Changjiang Diluted Water in summer only transports a small amount of the Changjiang suspended sediment to the outer shelf south of Cheju, which does not enter the Yellow Sea owing to the weak intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current in summer. The dynamics of the cross-shelf circulation in the Yellow Sea in winter are hypothesized to be associated with (1) the convergence of the Yellow Sea Coastal Current and the Taiwan Warm Current off the Changjiang mouth and (2) the time-dependent forcing of the northerly wind bursts that drives the intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variability of surface circulation in the South China Sea from satellite altimeter data

11-year satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) anomaly data from January 1993 to December 2003 are used to present the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes show the obvious seasonal variations of SSH in the SCS. EOF mode one is generally characterized by a basin-wide circulation. Mode two describes the double-cell basin scale circulation structure. The two cells were located off west of the Luzon Island and southeast of Vietnam, respectively. EOF mode three presents the mesoscale eddy structure in the western SCS, which develops into a strong cyclonic eddy rapidly from July to September. EOF mode one and mode three are also embedded with interannual signals, indicating that the SCS surface circulation variation is influenced by El Nino events prominently. The strong El Nino of 1997/98 obviously changed the SCS circulation structure. This study also shows that there existed a series of mesoscale eddies in the western SCS, and their temporal variation indicates intra-seasonal and interannual signals.

Roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The western boundary reflection is defined as the total Kelvin waves leaving the western boundary, which include the reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves as well as the effects of alongshore winds, off-equatorial Rossby waves, and nonlinear processes near the western boundary. The evaluation of the reflection is based on a wave decomposition of the OGCM results and experiments with linear models. It is found that the alongshore winds along the east coast of Africa and the Rossby waves in the off-equatorial areas contribute significantly to the annual harmonics of the equatorial Kelvin waves at the western boundary. The semiannual harmonics of the Kelvin waves, on the other hand, originate primarily from a linear reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves. The dynamics of a dominant annual oscillation of sea level coexisting with the dominant semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents in the central equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated. These sea level and zonal current patterns are found to be closely related to the linear reflections of the semiannual harmonics at the meridional boundaries. Because of the reflections, the second baroclinic mode resonates with the semiannual wind forcing; that is, the semiannual zonal currents carried by the reflected waves enhance the wind-forced currents at the central basin. Because of the different behavior of the zonal current and sea level during the reflections, the semiannual sea levels of the directly forced and reflected waves cancel each other significantly at the central basin. In the meantime, the annual harmonic of the sea level remains large, producing a dominant annual oscillation of sea level in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The linear reflection causes the semiannual harmonics of the incoming and reflected sea levels to enhance each other at the meridional boundaries. In addition, the weak annual harmonics of sea level in the western basin, resulting from a combined effect of the western boundary reflection and the equatorial zonal wind forcing, facilitate the dominance by the semiannual harmonics near the western boundary despite the strong local wind forcing at the annual period. The Rossby waves are found to have a much larger contribution to the observed equatorial semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents than the Kelvin waves. The westward progressive reversal of seasonal surface zonal currents along the equator in the observations is primarily due to the Rossby wave propagation.

H5N1 avian influenza re-emergence of Lake Communication Qinghai: phylogenetic and antigenic analyses of the newly isolated viruses and roles of migratory birds in virus circulation

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus has swept west across the globe and caused serious debates on the roles of migratory birds in virus circulation since the first large-scale outbreak in migratory birds of Lake Qinghai, 2005. In May 2006, another outbreak struck Lake Qinghai and six novel strains were isolated. To elucidate these QH06 viruses, the six isolates were subjected to whole-genome sequencing. Phylogenetic analyses show that QH06 viruses are derived from the lineages of Lake Qinghai, 2005. Five of the six novel isolates are adjacent to the strain A/Cygnus olor/Croatia/1/05, and the last one is related to the strain A/duck/Novosibirsk/ 02/05, an isolate of the flyway. Antigenic analyses suggest that QH06 and QH05 viruses are similar to each other. These findings implicate that QH06 viruses of Lake Qinghai may travel back via migratory birds, though not ruling out the possibility of local circulation of viruses of Lake Qinghai.

Dependence of severe storm occurrence on circulation types in Poland

The paper investigates the relationships between the occurrence of thunderstorms with heavy precipitation (> 30 mm) and atmospheric circulation types. The study covers the period 1951–1998 and is based on a matching span of records of thunderstorm occurrence and daily precipitation totals at 47 weather stations in Poland. A catalogue of circulation types by Osuchowska-Klein, data on frequency of fronts over south-eastern Poland by Niedźwiedź and weather maps were used. In Poland, days with a thunderstorm and more than 30 mm of precipitation are extremely rare and occur mainly in summer. Their recurrence period amounts to about two to four years, with the exception of mountain areas (southern Poland) where they occur nearly every year. The heaviest precipitation on a day with thunderstorm, 166.1 mm, was recorded at a high-mountain station on Mt. Kasprowy Wierch. Apart from this station the highest precipitation was 141.0 mm and only eight stations had at least one record of more than 100 mm. Four regions characterised by different circulation types most favourable for the occurrence of thunderstorms with heavy precipitation were identified. In all of them southerly advection was most favourable for the occurrence of the phenomena studied (Sc, SEc, Sa/c), but that effect was especially prominent in the south-western region. Most of the days with thunderstorm and heavy precipitation coincided with the passing of an atmospheric front over Poland (53.8–81.9% days depending on the station). Days with air-mass thunderstorm and heavy precipitation were rare and mostly occurred in areas of variable topography.

Interior pathways of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

To understand how our global climate will change in response to natural and anthropogenic forcing, it is essential to determine how quickly and by what pathways climate change signals are transported throughout the global ocean, a vast reservoir for heat and carbon dioxide. Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by open ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, is a particularly sensitive indicator of climate change on interannual to decadal timescales. Hydrographic observations made anywhere along the western boundary of the North Atlantic reveal a core of LSW at intermediate depths advected southward within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). These observations have led to the widely held view that the DWBC is the dominant pathway for the export of LSW from its formation site in the northern North Atlantic towards the Equator. Here we show that most of the recently ventilated LSW entering the subtropics follows interior, not DWBC, pathways. The interior pathways are revealed by trajectories of subsurface RAFOS floats released during the period 2003-2005 that recorded once-daily temperature, pressure and acoustically determined position for two years, and by model-simulated 'e-floats' released in the subpolar DWBC. The evidence points to a few specific locations around the Grand Banks where LSW is most often injected into the interior. These results have implications for deep ocean ventilation and suggest that the interior subtropical gyre should not be ignored when considering the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Simulation of ship evacuation and passenger circulation

This paper describes work carried out in the FIRE EXIT research project. FIRE EXIT aims to develop an Evacuation Simulator, capable of addressing issues of mustering, ship motions, fire and abandonment. In achieving these aims, FIRE EXIT took as its starting point the state-of-the-art in ship evacuation simulation (the maritimeEXODUS software), fire simulation (the SMARTFIRE software) and large-scale experimental facilities (the SHEBA facility). It then significantly enhanced these capabilities. A number of new technologies have been developed in achieving these objectives. The innovations include directly linking CFD fire simulation with evacuation and abandonment software and automatic data transfer from concept design software allowing rapid generation of ship simulation models. Software usability was augmented by a module for interpretation of evacuation software output. Enhancements to a ship evacuation testing rig have resulted in a unique facility, capable of providing passenger movement data for realistic evacuation scenarios and large scale tests have provided meaningful data for the evacuation simulation.