Nonlinear error dynamics for cycled data assimilation methods

We investigate the error dynamics for cycled data assimilation systems, such that the inverse problem of state determination is solved at tk, k = 1, 2, 3, ..., with a first guess given by the state propagated via a dynamical system model from time tk − 1 to time tk. In particular, for nonlinear dynamical systems that are Lipschitz continuous with respect to their initial states, we provide deterministic estimates for the development of the error ||ek|| := ||x(a)k − x(t)k|| between the estimated state x(a) and the true state x(t) over time. Clearly, observation error of size δ > 0 leads to an estimation error in every assimilation step. These errors can accumulate, if they are not (a) controlled in the reconstruction and (b) damped by the dynamical system under consideration. A data assimilation method is called stable, if the error in the estimate is bounded in time by some constant C. The key task of this work is to provide estimates for the error ||ek||, depending on the size δ of the observation error, the reconstruction operator Rα, the observation operator H and the Lipschitz constants K(1) and K(2) on the lower and higher modes of controlling the damping behaviour of the dynamics. We show that systems can be stabilized by choosing α sufficiently small, but the bound C will then depend on the data error δ in the form c||Rα||δ with some constant c. Since ||Rα|| → ∞ for α → 0, the constant might be large. Numerical examples for this behaviour in the nonlinear case are provided using a (low-dimensional) Lorenz '63 system.

The potential of 1 h refractivity changes from an operational C-band magnetron-based radar for numerical weather prediction validation and data assimilation

Refractivity changes (ΔN) derived from radar ground clutter returns serve as a proxy for near-surface humidity changes (1 N unit ≡ 1% relative humidity at 20 °C). Previous studies have indicated that better humidity observations should improve forecasts of convection initiation. A preliminary assessment of the potential of refractivity retrievals from an operational magnetron-based C-band radar is presented. The increased phase noise at shorter wavelengths, exacerbated by the unknown position of the target within the 300 m gate, make it difficult to obtain absolute refractivity values, so we consider the information in 1 h changes. These have been derived to a range of 30 km with a spatial resolution of ∼4 km; the consistency of the individual estimates (within each 4 km × 4 km area) indicates that ΔN errors are about 1 N unit, in agreement with in situ observations. Measurements from an instrumented tower on summer days show that the 1 h refractivity changes up to a height of 100 m remain well correlated with near-surface values. The analysis of refractivity as represented in the operational Met Office Unified Model at 1.5, 4 and 12 km grid lengths demonstrates that, as model resolution increases, the spatial scales of the refractivity structures improve. It is shown that the magnitude of refractivity changes is progressively underestimated at larger grid lengths during summer. However, the daily time series of 1 h refractivity changes reveal that, whereas the radar-derived values are very well correlated with the in situ observations, the high-resolution model runs have little skill in getting the right values of ΔN in the right place at the right time. This suggests that the assimilation of these radar refractivity observations could benefit forecasts of the initiation of convection.

Comparing hybrid data assimilation methods on the Lorenz 1963 model with increasing nonlinearity

We systematically compare the performance of ETKF-4DVAR, 4DVAR-BEN and 4DENVAR with respect to two traditional methods (4DVAR and ETKF) and an ensemble transform Kalman smoother (ETKS) on the Lorenz 1963 model. We specifically investigated this performance with increasing nonlinearity and using a quasi-static variational assimilation algorithm as a comparison. Using the analysis root mean square error (RMSE) as a metric, these methods have been compared considering (1) assimilation window length and observation interval size and (2) ensemble size to investigate the influence of hybrid background error covariance matrices and nonlinearity on the performance of the methods. For short assimilation windows with close to linear dynamics, it has been shown that all hybrid methods show an improvement in RMSE compared to the traditional methods. For long assimilation window lengths in which nonlinear dynamics are substantial, the variational framework can have diffculties fnding the global minimum of the cost function, so we explore a quasi-static variational assimilation (QSVA) framework. Of the hybrid methods, it is seen that under certain parameters, hybrid methods which do not use a climatological background error covariance do not need QSVA to perform accurately. Generally, results show that the ETKS and hybrid methods that do not use a climatological background error covariance matrix with QSVA outperform all other methods due to the full flow dependency of the background error covariance matrix which also allows for the most nonlinearity.

Thyroid hormones alter the adenine nucleotide hydrolysis in adult rat blood serum

The effects of ATP, ADP, and adenosine in the processes of platelet aggregation, vasodilatation, and coronary flow have been known for many years. The sequential hydrolysis of ATP to adenosine by soluble nucleotidases constitutes the main system for rapid inactivation of circulating adenine nucleotides. Thyroid disorders affect a number of biological factors including adenosine levels in different fractions. Then, we intend to investigate if the soluble nucleotidases responsible for the ATP, ADP, and AMP hydrolysis are affected by variations in the thyroid hormone levels in blood serum from adult rats. Hyperthyroidism was induced by daily intraperitoneal injections of L-thyroxine (T4) (2.5 and 10.0 mu g/100 g body weight, respectively) for 7 or 14 days. Hypothyroidism was induced by thyroidectomy and methimazole (0.05%) added to their drinking water during 7 or 14 days. The treatments efficacy was confirmed by determination of hemodynamic parameters and cardiac hypertrophy evaluation. T4 treatment predominantly inhibited, and hypothyroidism (14 days after thyroidectomy) predominantly increased the ATP, ADP, and AMP hydrolysis in rat blood serum. These results suggest that both excess and deficiency of thyroid hormones can modulate the ATP diphosphohydrolase and 5`-nucleotidase activities in rat blood serum and consequently modulate the effects mediated by these enzymes and their products in vascular system. (C) 2010 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Online versus postal data collection methods: an examination of issues and a comparison of results

New communications technologies often allow new ways of conducting market research. Determining the advantages of a new data collection method over established alternatives is difficult without thorough comparative testing. Computer-mediated marketing research is one such example of a new technology that has been enthusiastically embraced by marketing organisations and those servicing them. While researchers using the Internet (Net) and World Wide Web (Web) in its early years reported benefits such as high response levels, there is little in the way of comparative evidence to support any claimed advantages. This paper reports on the outcomes of three separate studies in which members (subscribers) of various organisations have been surveyed using both postal and online (email invitation and HTML Web form) data collection methods. The conclusion here is that it would be unwise to assume that one method can be directly substituted for another and obtain the same response. Differences in both the response pattern and demographic profile of respondents between the groups are consistently noticed, such as to warrant further examination of the methods used in online marketing research, and to suggest the need for further study.

Online and postal data collection methods: a comparative study

Computer-mediated marketing research has been enthusiastically embraced by marketing organisations and those servicing them, for many reasons. While researchers using the Internet (Net) and World Wide Web (Web) in its early years reported benefits such as high response levels, there are now issues in this regard. This paper reports on the outcomes of a probabilistic study involving football club members (subscribers) involving both postal and online (e-mail invitation and HTML Web form) data collection methods. The paper reports differences in both the response pattern and demographic profile of respondents between the groups such as to warrant further examination of the methods used in online marketing research, and to suggest the need for further study.

Qualitative methods in early-phase drug trials : data and methods from a trial of N-acetylcysteine in schizophrenia

Objective: The pharmacokinetic profile of a drug often gives little indication of its potential therapeutic application, with many therapeutic uses of drugs being discovered serendipitously while being studied for different indications. As hypothesis-driven, quantitative research methodology is exclusively used in early-phase trials, unexpected but important phenomena may escape detection. In this context, this study aimed to examine the potential for integrating qualitative research methods with quantitative methods in early-phase drug trials. To our knowledge, this mixed methodology has not previously been applied to blinded psychopharmacologic trials.

Method: We undertook qualitative data analysis of clinical observations on the dataset of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) in patients with DSM-IV-TR–diagnosed schizophrenia (N = 140). Textual data on all participants, deliberately collected for this purpose, were coded using NVivo 2, and emergent themes were analyzed in a blinded manner in the NAC and placebo groups. The trial was conducted from November 2002 to July 2005.

Results: The principal findings of the published trial could be replicated using a qualitative methodology. In addition, significant differences between NAC- and placebo-treated participants emerged for positive and affective symptoms, which had not been captured by the rating scales utilized in the quantitative trial. Qualitative data in this study subsequently led to a positive trial of NAC in bipolar disorder.

Conclusions: The use of qualitative methods may yield broader data and has the potential to complement traditional quantitative methods and detect unexpected efficacy and safety signals, thereby maximizing the findings of early-phase clinical trial research.

Removing the ambiguity of data processing methods: Optimizing the location of peak boundaries for accurate moment calculations

The calculation of the first few moments of elution peaks is necessary to determine: the amount of component in the sample (peak area or zeroth moment), the retention factor (first moment), and the column efficiency (second moment). It is a time consuming and tedious task for the analyst to perform these calculations, thus data analysis is generally completed by data stations associated to modern chromatographs. However, data acquisition software is a black box which provides no information to chromatographers on how their data are treated. These results are too important to be accepted on blind faith. The location of the peak integration boundaries is most important. In this manuscript, we explore the relationships between the size of the integration area, the relative position of the peak maximum within this area, and the accuracy of the calculated moments. We found that relationships between these parameters do exist and that computers can be programmed with relatively simple routines to automatize the extraction of key peak parameters and to select acceptable integration boundaries. It was also found that the most accurate results are obtained when the S/N exceeds 200.

Blood serum components and serum protein test of Hybro-PG broilers of different ages

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determination of fluoroacetate and fluoride in blood serum by capillary zone electrophoresis using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Potentiometric Sensor for Furosemide Determination in Pharmaceuticals, Urine, Blood Serum and Bovine Milk

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ocular alkali lesions in dogs: acetylcysteine and blood serum effects

Estudaram-se lesões oftálmicas promovidas pelo contato com Hidróxido de sódio (NaOH) a 3M em 42 cães, divididos em três grupos, tratados com soro sangüíneo autógeno, da acetilcisteína e solução salina balanceada (G1, G2 e G3, respectivamente). Não foram encontradas diferenças mediante a comparação entre os grupos, considerando-se parâmetros clínicos e microscópicos.