Public health assessment, Hudson Technologies Inc., village of Hillburn, Rockland County, New York /

"CERCLIS No. NY0001392463."

Public health assessment, Peninsula Boulevard groundwater plume, town of Hempstead, Nassau County, New York /

Cover title.

Public health assessment : Stanton Cleaners area groundwater contamination site : Great Neck, Nassau County, New York /

"November 30, 2005; CERCLIS No. NYD047650197."

Health assessment for Frink's Industrial Waste, Pecatonica, Illinois /

Cover title: Health assessment, Frink's Industrial Waste, Pecatonica, Illinois.

Action research to explore perceptions of risk in project management

Uses research in a major UK company on the introduction of an electronic document management system to explore perceptions of, and attitudes to, risk. Phenomenological methods were used; with subsequent dialogue transcripts evaluated with Winmax dialogue software, using an adapted theoretical framework based upon an analysis of the literature. The paper identifies a number of factors, and builds a framework, that should support a greater understanding of risk assessment and project management by the academic community and practitioners.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Multidimensional analysis of perceived risk in commercial air travel

This study attempts to assess the role of perceived risk in air passenger behaviour. A survey of 889 respondents is used to investigate a multidimensional concept of perceived risk and to analyse the differences between socio-demographic characteristics regarding passengers' risk assessment. The results indicate that financial risk and temporal risk are the most important in the context of commercial air travel. All perceived risk dimensions differ according gender, age, cultural background, income, previous experience, and reason for travelling. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new instrument for targeting falls prevention interventions was accurate and clinically applicable in a hospital setting

Background and Objective: To describe the diagnostic accuracy and practical application of the Peter James Centre Falls Risk Assessment Tool (PJC-FRAT), a multidisciplinary falls risk screening and intervention deployment instrument. Methods: In phase 1, the accuracy of the PJC-FRAT was prospectively compared to a gold standard (the STRATIFY) on a cohort of subacute hospital patients (n = 122). In phase 2, the PJC-FRAT was temporally reassessed using a subsequent cohort (n = 316), with results compared to those of phase 1. Primary outcomes were falls (events), fallers (patients who fell), and hospital completion rates of the PJC-FRAT. Results: In phase 1, PJC-FRAT accuracy of identifying falters showed sensitivity of 73% (bootstrap 95% confidence interval CI = 55, 90) and specificity of 75% (95% CI = 66, 83), compared with the STRATIFY (cutoff >= 2/5) sensitivity of 77% (95% CI = 59, 92) and specificity of 51% (95% CI = 41, 61). This difference was not significant. In phase 2, accuracy of nursing staff using the PJC-FRAT was lower. PJC-FRAT completion rates varied among disciplines over both phases: nurses and physiotherapists, >= 90%; occupational therapists, >= 82%; and medical officers, >= 57%. Conclusion: The PJC-FRAT was practical and relatively accurate as a predictor of falls and a deployment instrument for falls prevention interventions, although continued staff education may be necessary to maintain its accuracy. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

Valutazione del rischio ecologico e sviluppo di strategie innovative per il monitoraggio della qualita’ dei corpi idrici: applicazione di un nuovo approccio integrato in un bacino pilota.

Freshwater is extremely precious; but even more precious than freshwater is clean freshwater. From the time that 2/3 of our planet is covered in water, we have contaminated our globe with chemicals that have been used by industrial activities over the last century in a unprecedented way causing harm to humans and wildlife. We have to adopt a new scientific mindset in order to face this problem so to protect this important resource. The Water Framework Directive (European Parliament and the Council, 2000) is a milestone legislative document that transformed the way that water quality monitoring is undertaken across all Member States by introducing the Ecological and Chemical Status. A “good or higher” Ecological Status is expected to be achieved for all waterbodies in Europe by 2015. Yet, most of the European waterbodies, which are determined to be at risk, or of moderate to bad quality, further information will be required so that adequate remediation strategies can be implemented. To date, water quality evaluation is based on five biological components (phytoplankton, macrophytes and benthic algae, macroinvertebrates and fishes) and various hydromorphological and physicochemical elements. The evaluation of the chemical status is principally based on 33 priority substances and on 12 xenobiotics, considered as dangerous for the environment. This approach takes into account only a part of the numerous xenobiotics that can be present in surface waters and could not evidence all the possible causes of ecotoxicological stress that can act in a water section. The mixtures of toxic chemicals may constitute an ecological risk not predictable on the basis of the single component concentration. To improve water quality, sources of contamination and causes of ecological alterations need to be identified. On the other hand, the analysis of the community structure, which is the result of multiple processes, including hydrological constrains and physico-chemical stress, give back only a “photograph” of the actual status of a site without revealing causes and sources of the perturbation. A multidisciplinary approach, able to integrate the information obtained by different methods, such as community structure analysis and eco-genotoxicological studies, could help overcome some of the difficulties in properly identifying the different causes of stress in risk assessment. In synthesis, the river ecological status is the result of a combination of multiple pressures that, for management purposes and quality improvement, have to be disentangled from each other. To reduce actual uncertainty in risk assessment, methods that establish quantitative links between levels of contamination and community alterations are needed. The analysis of macrobenthic invertebrate community structure has been widely used to identify sites subjected to perturbation. Trait-based descriptors of community structure constitute a useful method in ecological risk assessment. The diagnostic capacity of freshwater biomonitoring could be improved by chronic sublethal toxicity testing of water and sediment samples. Requiring an exposure time that covers most of the species’ life cycle, chronic toxicity tests are able to reveal negative effects on life-history traits at contaminant concentrations well below the acute toxicity level. Furthermore, the responses of high-level endpoints (growth, fecundity, mortality) can be integrated in order to evaluate the impact on population’s dynamics, a highly relevant endpoint from the ecological point of view. To gain more accurate information about potential causes and consequences of environmental contamination, the evaluation of adverse effects at physiological, biochemical and genetic level is also needed. The use of different biomarkers and toxicity tests can give information about the sub-lethal and toxic load of environmental compartments. Biomarkers give essential information about the exposure to toxicants, such as endocrine disruptor compounds and genotoxic substances whose negative effects cannot be evidenced by using only high-level toxicological endpoints. The increasing presence of genotoxic pollutants in the environment has caused concern regarding the potential harmful effects of xenobiotics on human health, and interest on the development of new and more sensitive methods for the assessment of mutagenic and cancerogenic risk. Within the WFD, biomarkers and bioassays are regarded as important tools to gain lines of evidence for cause-effect relationship in ecological quality assessment. Despite the scientific community clearly addresses the advantages and necessity of an ecotoxicological approach within the ecological quality assessment, a recent review reports that, more than one decade after the publication of the WFD, only few studies have attempted to integrate ecological water status assessment and biological methods (namely biomarkers or bioassays). None of the fifteen reviewed studies included both biomarkers and bioassays. The integrated approach developed in this PhD Thesis comprises a set of laboratory bioassays (Daphnia magna acute and chronic toxicity tests, Comet Assay and FPG-Comet) newly-developed, modified tacking a cue from standardized existing protocols or applied for freshwater quality testing (ecotoxicological, genotoxicological and toxicogenomic assays), coupled with field investigations on macrobenthic community structures (SPEAR and EBI indexes). Together with the development of new bioassays with Daphnia magna, the feasibility of eco-genotoxicological testing of freshwater and sediment quality with Heterocypris incongruens was evaluated (Comet Assay and a protocol for chronic toxicity). However, the Comet Assay, although standardized, was not applied to freshwater samples due to the lack of sensitivity of this species observed after 24h of exposure to relatively high (and not environmentally relevant) concentrations of reference genotoxicants. Furthermore, this species demonstrated to be unsuitable also for chronic toxicity testing due to the difficult evaluation of fecundity as sub-lethal endpoint of exposure and complications due to its biology and behaviour. The study was applied to a pilot hydrographic sub-Basin, by selecting section subjected to different levels of anthropogenic pressure: this allowed us to establish the reference conditions, to select the most significant endpoints and to evaluate the coherence of the responses of the different lines of evidence (alteration of community structure, eco-genotoxicological responses, alteration of gene expression profiles) and, finally, the diagnostic capacity of the monitoring strategy. Significant correlations were found between the genotoxicological parameter Tail Intensity % (TI%) and macrobenthic community descriptors SPEAR (p<0.001) and EBI (p<0.05), between the genotoxicological parameter describing DNA oxidative stress (ΔTI%) and mean levels of nitrates (p<0.01) and between reproductive impairment (Failed Development % from D. magna chronic bioassays) and TI% (p<0.001) as well as EBI (p<0.001). While correlation among parameters demonstrates a general coherence in the response to increasing impacts, the concomitant ability of each single endpoint to be responsive to specific sources of stress is at the basis of the diagnostic capacity of the integrated approach as demonstrated by stations presenting a mismatch among the different lines of evidence. The chosen set of bioassays, as well as the selected endpoints, are not providing redundant indications on the water quality status but, on the contrary, are contributing with complementary pieces of information about the several stressors that insist simultaneously on a waterbody section providing this monitoring strategy with a solid diagnostic capacity. Our approach should provide opportunities for the integration of biological effects into monitoring programmes for surface water, especially in investigative monitoring. Moreover, it should provide a more realistic assessment of impact and exposure of aquatic organisms to contaminants. Finally this approach should provide an evaluation of drivers of change in biodiversity and its causalities on ecosystem function/services provision, that is the direct and indirect contributions to human well-being.

Managing risk in information technology projects

There are several studies on managing risks in information technology (IT) projects. Most of the studies identify and prioritise risks through empirical research in order to suggest mitigating measures. Although they are important to clients for future projects, these studies fail to provide any framework for risk management from IT developers' perspective. Although a few studies introduced a framework of risk management in IT projects, most of them are presented from clients' perspectives and very little effort has been made to integrate this with the project management cycle. As IT developers absorb a considerable amount of risk, an integrated framework for managing risks in IT projects from developers' perspective is needed in order to ensure success in IT projects. The main objective of the paper is to develop a risk management framework for IT projects from the developers' perspective. This study uses a combined qualitative and quantitative technique with the active involvement of stakeholders in order to identify, analyse and respond to risks. The entire methodology has been explained using a case study on an information technology project in a public sector organisation in Barbados.

Risk management in build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognised as one of the most risky project schemes. This scheme has been employed rather frequently in the past few decades, in both developed and developing countries. However, because of its risky nature, there have been failures as well as successes. Risk analysis in an appropriate way is desirable in implementing BOT projects. There are various tools and techniques applicable to risk analysis. The application of these risk analysis tools and techniques (RATTs) to BOT projects depends on an understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of RATTs. This paper studies key points in their applications through reviews of relevant literatures and discusses the application of RATTs to BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants, i.e. government, lenders and project companies. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks, which are very important in BOT projects. A flow chart has been introduced to select an appropriate tool for risk management in BOT projects. This study contributes to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Cues and knowledge structures used by mental-health professionals when making risk assessments

Background: Research into mental-health risks has tended to focus on epidemiological approaches and to consider pieces of evidence in isolation. Less is known about the particular factors and their patterns of occurrence that influence clinicians’ risk judgements in practice. Aims: To identify the cues used by clinicians to make risk judgements and to explore how these combine within clinicians’ psychological representations of suicide, self-harm, self-neglect, and harm to others. Method: Content analysis was applied to semi-structured interviews conducted with 46 practitioners from various mental-health disciplines, using mind maps to represent the hierarchical relationships of data and concepts. Results: Strong consensus between experts meant their knowledge could be integrated into a single hierarchical structure for each risk. This revealed contrasting emphases between data and concepts underpinning risks, including: reflection and forethought for suicide; motivation for self-harm; situation and context for harm to others; and current presentation for self-neglect. Conclusions: Analysis of experts’ risk-assessment knowledge identified influential cues and their relationships to risks. It can inform development of valid risk-screening decision support systems that combine actuarial evidence with clinical expertise.

Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing (ROSS) framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries

Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.