Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

A preliminary description of climatology in the western United States

We describe the climatology of the western United States as seen from two 1-month perspectives, January and July 1988, of the National Meteorological Center large-scale global analysis, the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and various station observation sets. An advantage of the NMC analysis and the RAMS is that they provide a continuous field interpolation of the meteorological variables. It is more difficult to describe spatial meteorological fields from the available sparse station networks. We assess accuracy of the NMC analysis and RAMS by finding differences between the analysis, the model, and station values at the stations. From these comparisons, we find that RAMS has much more well-developed mesoscale circulation, especially in the surface wind field. However, RAMS climatological and transient fields do not appear to be substantially closer than the larger-scale analysis to the station observations. The RAMS model does provide other meteorological variables, such as precipitation, which are not readily available from the archives of the global analysis. Thus, RAMS could, at the least, be a tool to augment the NMC large-scale analyses.

Leopoldo Panero and his antology of the Spanish American Poetry. A “personal” reading of America

El presente artículo trata de ofrecer una lectura estética y política de la Antología de la poesía hispanoamericana que publicara Leopoldo Panero entre 1944 y 1945 bajo protección gubernamental. Para ello se parte de la particular biografía del escritor astorgano, su relación en los años treinta con los poetas hispanoamericanos –especialmente Vallejo y Neruda– y su gira por América ya como supuesto prohombre del régimen franquista en 1949 y 1954. La lectura sistemática de sus prólogos y selección de poetas revela la particular visión de Panero sobre Hispanoamérica, mediatizada por el concepto imperial de Falange pero formulada bajo su propia visión de lo que la lírica americana representa para la lengua castellana. Se sostiene así en estas líneas la tesis de que los postulados de Panero representan, a pesar de todo, una opción mucho más compleja de lo que se suele considerar.

An evaluation of an adapted United States model of pharmaceutical care to improve psychoactive prescribing for nursing home residents in Northern Ireland (Fleetwood NI Study).

OBJECTIVES: To test the effect of an adapted U.S. model of pharmaceutical care on prescribing of inappropriate psychoactive (anxiolytic, hypnotic, and antipsychotic) medications and falls in nursing homes for older people in Northern Ireland (NI).

DESIGN: Cluster randomized controlled trial.

SETTING: Nursing homes randomized to intervention (receipt of the adapted model of care; n=11) or control (usual care continued; n=11).

PARTICIPANTS: Residents aged 65 and older who provided informed consent (N=334; 173 intervention, 161 control).

INTERVENTION: Specially trained pharmacists visited intervention homes monthly for 12 months and reviewed residents' clinical and prescribing information, applied an algorithm that guided them in assessing the appropriateness of psychoactive medication, and worked with prescribers (general practitioners) to improve the prescribing of these drugs. The control homes received usual care.

MEASUREMENTS: The primary end point was the proportion of residents prescribed one or more inappropriate psychoactive medicine according to standardized protocols; falls were evaluated using routinely collected falls data mandated by the regulatory body for nursing homes in NI.

RESULTS: The proportion of residents taking inappropriate psychoactive medications at 12 months in the intervention homes (25/128, 19.5%) was much lower than in the control homes (62/124, 50.0%) (odds ratio=0.26, 95% confidence interval=0.14–0.49) after adjustment for clustering within homes. No differences were observed at 12 months in the falls rate between the intervention and control groups.

CONCLUSION: Marked reductions in inappropriate psychoactive medication prescribing in residents resulted from pharmacist review of targeted medications, but there was no effect on falls.

Knowledge and risk perceptions of the Ebola virus in the United States

Objectives
The Ebola epidemic has received extensive media coverage since the first diagnosed cases of the virus in the US. We investigated risk perceptions of Ebola among individuals living in the US and measured their knowledge of the virus.

Method
US residents completed an online survey (conducted 14–18 November 2014) that assessed their Ebola knowledge and risk perceptions.

Results
Respondents who were more knowledgeable of Ebola perceived less risk of contracting the virus and were less worried about the virus, but also regarded Ebola as more serious than less knowledgeable respondents. The internet served as a major source of additional information among knowledgeable respondents.

Conclusion
The findings suggest that the provision of health information about Ebola may be effective in informing the public about Ebola risks and of preventive measures without curtailing the seriousness of the virus. Policymakers may seek to further exploit the internet as a means of delivering information about Ebola in the US and worldwide.

Escaping the Holocaust: human and health capital of refugees to the United States, 1940-42

The large-scale persecution of Jews during World War II generated massive refugee movements. Using data from 20,441 predominantly Jewish passengers from 19 countries traveling from Lisbon to New York between 1940 and 1942, we analyze the last wave of refugees escaping the Holocaust and verify the validity of height as a proxy for human and health capital. We further show this episode of European migration displays well-known features of migrant self-selection: early migrants were taller than late migrants; a large migrant stock reduces migrant selectivity; and economic barriers to migration
apply. Our findings show that Europe experienced substantial losses in human and health capital while the US benefitted from the immigration of European refugees.

Liberalization of Labor Relations in Germany and the United States: A firm-centered comparison of cross-national labor organizing at Amazon and Volkswagen

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015

Sedimentology and micromorphology of drumlin sediments at Chimney Bluffs State Park, New York, United States of America

The drumlin sediments at Chimney Bluffs, New York appear to represent a block-inmatrix style glacial melange. This melange comprises sand stringers, lenses and intraclasts juxtaposed in an apparently massive diamicton. Thin section examination of these glacigenic deposits has revealed microstructures indicative of autokinetic subglacial defonnation which are consistent with a deformable bed origin for the diamicton. These features include banding and. necking of matrix grains, oriented plasma fabrics and the formation of pressure shadows at the long axis ends of elongate clasts. Preservation of primary stratification within the sand intraclasts appears to suggest that these features were pre-existing up-ice deposits that were frozen, entrained, then deposited as part of a defonning till layer beneath an advancing ice sheet. Multi-directional micro-shearing within the sand blocks is thought to reflect the frozen nature of the sand units in such a high strain environment. It is also contended that dewatering of the sediment pile leading to the eventual immobilisation of the defonning till layer was responsible for opening sub-horizontal fissures within the diamicton. These features were subsequently infilled with mass flow poorly sorted sands and silts which were subjected to ductile defonnation during the waning stages of an actively deforming till layer. Microstructures indicative of the dewatering processes in the sand units include patches of fine-grained particles within a coarser-grained matrix and the presence of concentrated zones of translocated clays. However, these units were probably confined within an impermeable diamicton casing that prevented massive pore water influxes from the deforming till layer~ Hence, these microstructures probably reflect localised dewatering of the sand intraclasts. A layered subglacial shear zone model is proposed for the various features exhibited by the drumlin sediments. The complexity of these structures is explained in terms of ii superposing deformation styles in response to changing pore water pressures. Constructional glaciotectonics, as implied by the occurrence of sub-horizontal fissuring, is suggested as the mechanism for the stacking of the sand intraclast units within the diamicton. The usefulness of micromorphology in complimenting the traditional sedimentology of glacigenic deposits is emphasised by the current study. An otherwise massive diamicton was shown to contain microstructures indicative of the very high strain rates expected in a complexly deforming till layer. . It is quite obvious from this investigation that the classification of diamictons needs to be re-examined for evidence of microstructures that could lead to the re-interpretation of diamicton forming processes. RESUME Le pacquet de sediments drumlinaire de Chimney Bluffs, New York, represent un "bloc-en-matrice" genre de melange glaciale. Des structures microscopique comprennent l'evidence pour la defonnation intrinseque attribuee a l'origine lit non resistant du drumlin. PreselVation des structures primaires au coeur des blocs arenaces suggere que ceux sont des depots preexistant qui furent geles, entraines et par la suite sedimentes au milieu d'une couche de debris sous-glaciaires en voie de deformation. Des failles microscopiques a l'interieur des blocs arenaces appuient aussi l'idee d'un bloc cohesif (c'est-a-dire gele) au centre d'un till non resistant. Des implications significatives s'emergent de cette etude pour les conditions sous-glaciaire et les processus de la formation des drumlin.

The law of the sea: the United States, Canada and the deep seabed

The Falkland Islands War of 1982 was fought over competing claims to sovereignty over a group of islands off the east coast of South America. The dispute was between Argentina and the United Kingdom. Argentina claims the islands under rights to Spanish succession, the fact that they lie off the Argentine coast line and that in 1833 Great Britain took the islands illegally and by force. The United Kingdom claims the islands primarily through prescription--the fact that they have governed the islands in a peaceful, continuous and public manner since 1833. The British also hold that the population living on the islands, roughly eighteen hundred British descendants, should be able to decide their own future. The United Kingdom also lays claim to the islands through rights of discovery and settlement, although this claim has always been challenged by Spain who until 1811 governed the islands. Both claims have legal support, and the final decision if there will ever be one is difficult to predict. Sadly today the ultimate test of sovereignty does not come through international law but remains in the idea that "He is sovereign who can defend his sovereignty." The years preceding the Argentine invasion of 1982 witnessed many diplomatic exchanges between The United Kingdom and Argentina over the future of the islands. During this time the British sent signals to Argentina that ii implied a decline in British resolve to hold the islands and demonstrated that military action did more to further the talks along than did actual negotiations. The Argentine military junta read these signals and decided that they could take the islands in a quick military invasion and that the United Kingdom would consider the act as a fait accompli and would not protest the invasion. The British in response to this claimed that they never signaled to Argentina that a military solution was acceptable to them and launched a Royal Navy task force to liberate the islands. Both governments responded to an international crisis with means that were designed both to resolve the international crisis and increase the domestic popularity of the government. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was facing an all-time low in popularity for post-War Prime Ministers while Argentine President General Galtieri needed to gain mass popular support so he could remain a viable President after he was scheduled to lose command of the army and a seat on the military junta that ran the country. The military war for the Falklands is indicative of the nature of modern warfare between Third World countries. It shows that the gap in military capabilities between Third and First World countries is narrowing significantly. Modern warfare between a First and Third World country is no longer a 'walk over' for the First World country.

"Man of science, man of faith" : Lost, consumer agency and the fate/free will binary in the post-9/11 context

In 2004, Lost debuted on ABC and quickly became a cultural phenomenon. Its postmodem take on the classic Robinson Crusoe desert island scenario gestures to a variety of different issues circulating within the post-9II1 cultural consciousness, such as terrorism, leadership, anxieties involving air travel, torture, and globalization. Lost's complex interwoven flashback and flash-forward narrative structure encourages spectators to creatively hypothesize solutions to the central mysteries of the narrative, while also thematically addressing archetypal questions of freedom of choice versus fate. Through an examination of the narrative structure, the significance of technological shifts in television, and fan cultures in Lost, this thesis discusses the tenuous notion of consumer agency within the current cultural context. Furthermore, I also explore these issues in relation to the wider historical post-9/II context.

Comparison of self-reported attachment in young adults from Spain and the United States

Resumen tomado de la publicación