Local and global error models to improve uncertainty quantification

In groundwater applications, Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the uncertainty on geological parameters. However, their brute-force application becomes computationally prohibitive for highly detailed geological descriptions, complex physical processes, and a large number of realizations. The Distance Kernel Method (DKM) overcomes this issue by clustering the realizations in a multidimensional space based on the flow responses obtained by means of an approximate (computationally cheaper) model; then, the uncertainty is estimated from the exact responses that are computed only for one representative realization per cluster (the medoid). Usually, DKM is employed to decrease the size of the sample of realizations that are considered to estimate the uncertainty. We propose to use the information from the approximate responses for uncertainty quantification. The subset of exact solutions provided by DKM is then employed to construct an error model and correct the potential bias of the approximate model. Two error models are devised that both employ the difference between approximate and exact medoid solutions, but differ in the way medoid errors are interpolated to correct the whole set of realizations. The Local Error Model rests upon the clustering defined by DKM and can be seen as a natural way to account for intra-cluster variability; the Global Error Model employs a linear interpolation of all medoid errors regardless of the cluster to which the single realization belongs. These error models are evaluated for an idealized pollution problem in which the uncertainty of the breakthrough curve needs to be estimated. For this numerical test case, we demonstrate that the error models improve the uncertainty quantification provided by the DKM algorithm and are effective in correcting the bias of the estimate computed solely from the MsFV results. The framework presented here is not specific to the methods considered and can be applied to other combinations of approximate models and techniques to select a subset of realizations

Flux and composition of settling particles across the continental margin of the Gulf of Lion: the role of dense shelf water cascading

Settling particles were collected using sediment traps deployed along three transects in the Lacaze-Duthiers and Cap de Creus canyons and the adjacent southern open slope from October 2005 to October 2006. The settling material was analyzed to obtain total mass fluxes and main constituent contents (organic matter, opal, calcium carbonate, and siliciclastics). Cascades of dense shelf water from the continental shelf edge to the lower continental slope occurred from January to March 2006. They were traced through strong negative near-bottom temperature anomalies and increased current speeds, and generated two intense pulses of mass fluxes in January and March 2006. This oceanographic phenomenon appeared as the major physical forcing of settling particles at almost all stations, and caused both high seasonal variability in mass fluxes and important qualitative changes in settling material. Fluxes during the dense shelf water cascading (DSWC) event ranged from 90.1 g m(-2) d(-1) at the middle Cap de Creus canyon (1000 m) to 3.2 g m(-2) d(-1) at the canyon mouth (1900 m). Fractions of organic matter, opal and calcium carbonate components increased seaward, thus diminishing the siliciclastic fraction. Temporal variability of the major components was larger in the canyon mouth and open slope sites, due to the mixed impact of dense shelf water cascading processes and the pelagic biological production. Results indicate that the cascading event remobilized and homogenized large amounts of material down canyon and southwardly along the continental slope contributing to a better understanding of the off-shelf particle transport and the internal dynamics of DSWC events.

Side scan sonar image and geologic interpretation of the Ria de Pontevedra seafloor (Galicia, NW Spain).

High-resolution side scan sonar has been used for mapping the seafloor of the Ría de Pontevedra. Four backscatter patterns have been mapped within the Ría: (1) Pattern with isolated reflections, correlated with granite and metamorphic outcrops and located close to the coastal prominence and Ons and Onza Islands. (2) Pattern of strong reflectivity usually located around the basement outcrops and near the coastline and produced by coarse-grained sediment. (3) Pattern of weak backscatter is correlated with fine sand to mud and comprising large areas in the central and deep part of the Ría, where the bottom currents are weak. It is generally featureless, except where pockmarks and anthropogenic features are present. (4) Patches of strong and weak backscatter are located in the boundary between coarse and fine-grained sediments and they are due to the effect of strong bottom currents. The presence of megaripples associated to both patterns of strong reflectivity and sedimentary patches indicate bedload transport of sediment during high energy conditions (storms). Side scan sonar records and supplementary bathymetry, bottom samples and hydrodynamic data reveal that the distribution of seafloor sediment is strongly related to oceanographic processes and the particular morphology and topography of the Ría.

Characterization of gravitational rock slope deformations at different spatial scales based on field, remote sensing and numerical approaches

Rock slope instabilities such as rock slides, rock avalanche or deep-seated gravitational slope deformations are widespread in Alpine valleys. These phenomena represent at the same time a main factor that control the mountain belts erosion and also a significant natural hazard that creates important losses to the mountain communities. However, the potential geometrical and dynamic connections linking outcrop and slope-scale instabilities are often unknown. A more detailed definition of the potential links will be essential to improve the comprehension of the destabilization processes and to dispose of a more complete hazard characterization of the rock instabilities at different spatial scales. In order to propose an integrated approach in the study of the rock slope instabilities, three main themes were analysed in this PhD thesis: (1) the inventory and the spatial distribution of rock slope deformations at regional scale and their influence on the landscape evolution, (2) the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on rock slope instabilities development and (3) the characterization of hazard posed by potential rock slope instabilities through the development of conceptual instability models. To prose and integrated approach for the analyses of these topics, several techniques were adopted. In particular, high resolution digital elevation models revealed to be fundamental tools that were employed during the different stages of the rock slope instability assessment. A special attention was spent in the application of digital elevation model for detailed geometrical modelling of past and potential instabilities and for the rock slope monitoring at different spatial scales. Detailed field analyses and numerical models were performed to complete and verify the remote sensing approach. In the first part of this thesis, large slope instabilities in Rhone valley (Switzerland) were mapped in order to dispose of a first overview of tectonic and climatic factors influencing their distribution and their characteristics. Our analyses demonstrate the key influence of neotectonic activity and the glacial conditioning on the spatial distribution of the rock slope deformations. Besides, the volumes of rock instabilities identified along the main Rhone valley, were then used to propose the first estimate of the postglacial denudation and filling of the Rhone valley associated to large gravitational movements. In the second part of the thesis, detailed structural analyses of the Frank slide and the Sierre rock avalanche were performed to characterize the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on the geometry and on the failure mechanism of large instabilities. Our observations indicated that the geometric characteristics and the variation of the rock mass quality associated to ductile tectonic structures, that are often ignored landslide study, represent important factors that can drastically influence the extension and the failure mechanism of rock slope instabilities. In the last part of the thesis, the failure mechanisms and the hazard associated to five potential instabilities were analysed in detail. These case studies clearly highlighted the importance to incorporate different analyses and monitoring techniques to dispose of reliable and hazard scenarios. This information associated to the development of a conceptual instability model represents the primary data for an integrated risk management of rock slope instabilities. - Les mouvements de versant tels que les chutes de blocs, les éboulements ou encore les phénomènes plus lents comme les déformations gravitaires profondes de versant représentent des manifestations courantes en régions montagneuses. Les mouvements de versant sont à la fois un des facteurs principaux contrôlant la destruction progressive des chaines orogéniques mais aussi un danger naturel concret qui peut provoquer des dommages importants. Pourtant, les phénomènes gravitaires sont rarement analysés dans leur globalité et les rapports géométriques et mécaniques qui lient les instabilités à l'échelle du versant aux instabilités locales restent encore mal définis. Une meilleure caractérisation de ces liens pourrait pourtant représenter un apport substantiel dans la compréhension des processus de déstabilisation des versants et améliorer la caractérisation des dangers gravitaires à toutes les échelles spatiales. Dans le but de proposer un approche plus globale à la problématique des mouvements gravitaires, ce travail de thèse propose trois axes de recherche principaux: (1) l'inventaire et l'analyse de la distribution spatiale des grandes instabilités rocheuses à l'échelle régionale, (2) l'analyse des structures tectoniques cassantes et ductiles en relation avec les mécanismes de rupture des grandes instabilités rocheuses et (3) la caractérisation des aléas rocheux par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à développer un modèle conceptuel de l'instabilité et une meilleure appréciation du danger . Pour analyser les différentes problématiques traitées dans cette thèse, différentes techniques ont été utilisées. En particulier, le modèle numérique de terrain s'est révélé être un outil indispensable pour la majorité des analyses effectuées, en partant de l'identification de l'instabilité jusqu'au suivi des mouvements. Les analyses de terrain et des modélisations numériques ont ensuite permis de compléter les informations issues du modèle numérique de terrain. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, les mouvements gravitaires rocheux dans la vallée du Rhône (Suisse) ont été cartographiés pour étudier leur répartition en fonction des variables géologiques et morphologiques régionales. En particulier, les analyses ont mis en évidence l'influence de l'activité néotectonique et des phases glaciaires sur la distribution des zones à forte densité d'instabilités rocheuses. Les volumes des instabilités rocheuses identifiées le long de la vallée principale ont été ensuite utilisés pour estimer le taux de dénudations postglaciaire et le remplissage de la vallée du Rhône lié aux grands mouvements gravitaires. Dans la deuxième partie, l'étude de l'agencement structural des avalanches rocheuses de Sierre (Suisse) et de Frank (Canada) a permis de mieux caractériser l'influence passive des structures tectoniques sur la géométrie des instabilités. En particulier, les structures issues d'une tectonique ductile, souvent ignorées dans l'étude des instabilités gravitaires, ont été identifiées comme des structures très importantes qui contrôlent les mécanismes de rupture des instabilités à différentes échelles. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, cinq instabilités rocheuses différentes ont été étudiées par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à mieux caractériser l'aléa et à développer un modèle conceptuel trois dimensionnel de ces instabilités. A l'aide de ces analyses on a pu mettre en évidence la nécessité d'incorporer différentes techniques d'analyses et de surveillance pour une gestion plus objective du risque associée aux grandes instabilités rocheuses.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Chemical dispersants and pre-treatments to determine clay in soils with different mineralogy

Knowledge of the soil physical properties, including the clay content, is of utmost importance for agriculture. The behavior of apparently similar soils can differ in intrinsic characteristics determined by different formation processes and nature of the parent material. The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of separate or combined pre-treatments, dispersion methods and chemical dispersant agents to determine clay in some soil classes, selected according to their mineralogy. Two Brazilian Oxisols, two Alfisols and one Mollisol with contrasting mineralogy were selected. Different treatments were applied: chemical substances as dispersants (lithium hydroxide, sodium hydroxide, and hexametaphosphate); pre-treatment with dithionite, ammonium oxalate, and hydrogen peroxide to eliminate organic matter; and coarse sand as abrasive and ultrasound, to test their mechanical action. The conclusion was drawn that different treatments must be applied to determine clay, in view of the soil mineralogy. Lithium hydroxide was not efficient to disperse low-CEC electropositive soils and very efficient in dispersing high-CEC electronegative soils. The use of coarse sand as an abrasive increased the clay content of all soils and in all treatments in which dispersion occurred, with or without the use of chemical dispersants. The efficiency of coarse sand is not the same for all soil classes.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Sexual selection in genetic colour-polymorphic species: a review of experimental studies and perspectives

Sexual selection theory has primarily focussed on the role of mating preferences for the best individuals in the evolution of condition-dependent ornaments, traits that signal absolute quality. Because the most suitable mate for one individual is not always the best for others, however, we argue that non-directional mate choice can promote the evolution of alternative morphs that are not condition-dependent in their expression (i.e. genetic polymorphism). We list the different mate-choice rules (i.e. all individuals have the same preference; preference depends on the chooser's morph; individuals mate preferentially with conspecifics displaying an uncommon or the most frequent morph) and review experimental studies that investigated mate choice in natural populations of colour-polymorphic animals. Our review emphasises that although the experimental data support the idea that sexual selection plays an important role in the evolution of genetic colour polymorphism in many different ways, little is known about the adaptive value of each mate-choice strategy and about their implication in the evolutionary stability of colour polymorphism. One way of solving this problem is to determine the adaptive function of colour morphs, a worthwhile objective, because better understanding of mate-choice rules in polymorphic species should provide important insights into sexual-selection processes and, in turn, into the maintenance of genetic variation.

Computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals; effects on professional practice and health care outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice does not always reflect best practice and evidence, partly because of unconscious acts of omission, information overload, or inaccessible information. Reminders may help clinicians overcome these problems by prompting the doctor to recall information that they already know or would be expected to know and by providing information or guidance in a more accessible and relevant format, at a particularly appropriate time. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects of reminders automatically generated through a computerized system and delivered on paper to healthcare professionals on processes of care (related to healthcare professionals' practice) and outcomes of care (related to patients' health condition). SEARCH METHODS: For this update the EPOC Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the following databases between June 11-19, 2012: The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Cochrane Library (Economics, Methods, and Health Technology Assessment sections), Issue 6, 2012; MEDLINE, OVID (1946- ), Daily Update, and In-process; EMBASE, Ovid (1947- ); CINAHL, EbscoHost (1980- ); EPOC Specialised Register, Reference Manager, and INSPEC, Engineering Village. The authors reviewed reference lists of related reviews and studies.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included individual or cluster-randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomized controlled trials (NRCTs) that evaluated the impact of computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals on processes and/or outcomes of care. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Review authors working in pairs independently screened studies for eligibility and abstracted data. We contacted authors to obtain important missing information for studies that were published within the last 10 years. For each study, we extracted the primary outcome when it was defined or calculated the median effect size across all reported outcomes. We then calculated the median absolute improvement and interquartile range (IQR) in process adherence across included studies using the primary outcome or median outcome as representative outcome. MAIN RESULTS: In the 32 included studies, computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals achieved moderate improvement in professional practices, with a median improvement of processes of care of 7.0% (IQR: 3.9% to 16.4%). Implementing reminders alone improved care by 11.2% (IQR 6.5% to 19.6%) compared with usual care, while implementing reminders in addition to another intervention improved care by 4.0% only (IQR 3.0% to 6.0%) compared with the other intervention. The quality of evidence for these comparisons was rated as moderate according to the GRADE approach. Two reminder features were associated with larger effect sizes: providing space on the reminder for provider to enter a response (median 13.7% versus 4.3% for no response, P value = 0.01) and providing an explanation of the content or advice on the reminder (median 12.0% versus 4.2% for no explanation, P value = 0.02). Median improvement in processes of care also differed according to the behaviour the reminder targeted: for instance, reminders to vaccinate improved processes of care by 13.1% (IQR 12.2% to 20.7%) compared with other targeted behaviours. In the only study that had sufficient power to detect a clinically significant effect on outcomes of care, reminders were not associated with significant improvements. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate quality evidence that computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals achieve moderate improvement in process of care. Two characteristics emerged as significant predictors of improvement: providing space on the reminder for a response from the clinician and providing an explanation of the reminder's content or advice. The heterogeneity of the reminder interventions included in this review also suggests that reminders can improve care in various settings under various conditions.

Influence of age on retinochoroidal healing processes after argon photocoagulation in C57bl/6j mice.

PURPOSE: To analyze the influence of age on retinochoroidal wound healing processes and on glial growth factor and cytokine mRNA expression profiles observed after argon laser photocoagulation. METHODS: A cellular and morphometric study was performed that used 44 C57Bl/6J mice: 4-week-old mice (group I, n=8), 6-week-old mice (group II, n=8), 10-12-week-old mice (group III, n=14), and 1-year-old mice (group IV, n=14). All mice in these groups underwent a standard argon laser photocoagulation (50 microm, 400 mW, 0.05 s). Two separated lesions were created in each retina using a slit lamp delivery system. At 1, 3, 7, 14, 60 days, and 4 months after photocoagulation, mice from each of the four groups were sacrificed by carbon dioxide inhalation. Groups III and IV were also studied at 6, 7, and 8 months after photocoagulation. At each time point the enucleated eyes were either mounted in Tissue Tek (OCT), snap frozen and processed for immunohistochemistry or either flat mounted (left eyes of groups III and IV). To determine, by RT-PCR, the time course of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) gene expression, we delivered ten laser burns (50 microm, 400 mW, 0.05 s) to each retina in 10-12-week-old mice (group III', n=10) and 1-year-old mice (group IV', n=10). Animals from Groups III' and IV' had the same age than those from Groups III and IV, but they received ten laser impacts in each eye and served for the molecular analysis. Mice from Groups III and IV received only two laser impacts per eye and served for the cellular and morphologic study. Retinal and choroidal tissues from these treated mice were collected at 16 h, and 1, 2, 3, and 7 days after photocoagulation. Two mice of each group did not receive photocoagulation and were used as controls. RESULTS: In the cellular and morphologic study, the resultant retinal pigment epithelium interruption expanse was significantly different between the four groups. It was more concise and smaller in the oldest group IV (112.1 microm+/-11.4 versus 219.1 microm+/-12.2 in group III) p<0.0001 between groups III and IV. By contrast, while choroidal neovascularization (CNV) was mild and not readily identifiable in group I, at all time points studied, CNV was more prominent in the (1-year-old mice) Group IV than in the other groups. For instance, up to 14 days after photocoagulation, CNV reaction was statistically larger in group IV than in group III ((p=0.0049 between groups III and IV on slide sections and p<0.0001 between the same groups on flat mounts). Moreover, four months after photocoagulation, the CNV area (on slide sections) was 1,282 microm(2)+/-90 for group III and 2,999 microm(2)+/-115 for group IV (p<0.0001 between groups III and IV). Accordingly, GFAP, VEGF, and MCP-1 mRNA expression profiles, determined by RT-PCR at 16 h, 1, 2, 3, and 7 days postphotocoagulation, were modified with aging. In 1-year-old mice (group IV), GFAP mRNA expression was already significantly higher than in the younger (10-12 week) group III before photocoagulation. After laser burns, GFAP mRNA expression peaked at 16-24 h and on day 7, decreasing thereafter. VEGF mRNA expression was markedly increased after photocoagulation in old mice eyes, reaching 2.7 times its basal level at day 3, while it was only slightly increased in young mice (1.3 times its level in untreated young mice 3 days postphotocoagulation). At all time points after photocoagulation, MCP-1 mRNA expression was elevated in old mice, reaching high levels of expression at 16 h and day 3 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results were based on the study of four different age groups and included not only data from morphological observations but also from a molecular analysis of the various alterations of cytokine signaling and expression. One-year-old mice demonstrated more extensive CNV formation and a slower pace of regression after laser photocoagulation than younger mice. These were accompanied by differences in growth factors and cytokine expression profiles indicate that aging is a factor that aggravates CNV. The above results may provide some insight into possible therapeutic strategies in the future.

Topographic forcing of flow partition and flow structures at river bifurcations

This paper presents the predicted flow dynamics from the application of a Reynolds-averaged NavierStokes model to a series of bifurcation geometries with morphologies measured during previous flume experiments. The topography of the bifurcations consists of either plane or bedform-dominated beds which may or may not possess discordance between the two bifurcation distributaries. Numerical predictions are compared with experimental results to assess the ability of the numerical model to reproduce the division of flow into the bifurcation distributaries. The hydrodynamic model predicts: (1) diverting fluxes in the upstream channel which direct water into the distributaries; (2) super-elevation of the free surface induced at the bifurcation edge by pressure differences; and (3) counter-rotating secondary circulation cells which develop upstream of the apex of the bifurcation and move into the downstream channels, with water converging at the surface and diverging at the bed. When bedforms are not present, weak transversal fluxes characterize the upstream channel for almost its entire length, associated with clearly distinguishable secondary circulation cells, although these may be under-estimated by the turbulence model used in the solution. In the bedform dominated case, the same hydrodynamic conditions were not observed, with the bifurcation influence restricted and depth scale secondary circulation cells not forming. The results also demonstrate the dominant effect bed discordance has upon flow division between the two distributaries. Finally, results indicate that in bedform dominated rivers. Consequently, we suggest that sand-bed river bifurcations are more likely to have an influence that extends much further upstream and have a greater impact upon water distribution. This may contribute to observed morphological differences between sand-bedded and gravel-bedded braided river networks. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of computerisation on the quality and safety of chemotherapy prescription.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy is prescribed according to protocols of several cycles. These protocols include not only therapeutic agents but also adjuvant solvents and inherent supportive care measures. Multiple errors can occur during the prescription, the transmission of documents and the drug delivery processes, and lead to potentially serious consequences. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a computerised physician order entry (CPOE) system on the number of errors in prescription recorded by the centralised chemotherapy unit of a pharmacy service in a university hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Existing chemotherapy protocols were standardised by a multidisciplinary team (composed of a doctor, a pharmacist and a nurse) and a CPOE system was developed from a File Maker Pro database. Chemotherapy protocols were progressively introduced into the CPOE system. The effect of the system on prescribing errors was measured over 15 months before and 21 months after starting computerised protocol prescription. Errors were classified as major (dosage and drug name) and minor (volume or type of infusion solution). RESULTS: Before computerisation, 141 errors were recorded for 940 prescribed chemotherapy regimens (15%). After introduction of the CPOE system, 75 errors were recorded for 1505 prescribed chemotherapy regimens (5%). Of these errors, 69 (92%) were recorded in prescriptions that did not use a computerised protocol. A dramatic decrease in the number of errors was noticeable when 50% of the chemotherapy protocols were prescribed through the CPOE system. CONCLUSION: Errors in chemotherapy prescription nearly disappeared after implementation of CPOE. The safety of chemotherapy prescription was markedly improved.

Ecotoxicological approaches to assess the long-term effects of four anticancer drugs and metabolites on Daphnia pulex

The aquatic environment is exposed continuously and increasingly to chemical substances such as pharmaceuticals. These medical compounds are released into the environment after having being consumed and body-excreted by patients. Pharmaceutical residues are synthetic molecules that are not always removed by traditional sewage treatment processes and thus escape degradation. Among pharmaceuticals that escape sewage treatment plants (STPs), the anticancer drugs were measured in STP effluents and natural waters. In the aquatic environment, their long-term effects at low concentrations are sparsely known on non-target species. Tamoxifen is an anticancer drug that is widely prescribed worldwide for the prevention and treatment of hormone receptor-positive breast cancers. Two of its metabolites, i.e., endoxifen and 4-hydroxy- tamoxifen (4OHTam), have high pharmacological potency in vivo and such as tamoxifen, they are excreted via faeces by patients. Tamoxifen was measured in STP effluents and natural waters but, to the best of our knowledge, its metabolites concentrations in waters have never been reported. Imatinib is another and recent anticancer compound that targets specific tumour cells. This pharmaceutical is also body excreted and because of its increasing use in cancer treatment, imatinib may reach the natural water. The effects of tamoxifen and imatinib are unknown upon more than one generation of aquatic species. And the effects of 4OHTam, endoxifen have never been studied in ecotoxicology so far. The aims of this thesis were threefold. First, the sensitivity of D. pulex exposed to tamoxifen, 4OHTam, endoxifen or imatinib was assessed using ecotoxicological experiments. Ecotoxicology is the science that considers the toxic effects of natural or synthetic substances, such as pharmaceuticals, on organisms, populations, community and ecosystem. Acute and multigenerational (2-4 generations) tests were performed on daphnids considering several studied endpoints, such as immobilisation, size, reproduction, viability and intrinsic rate of natural increase. Additional prospective assays were designed to evaluate whether 1) low concentrations of tamoxifen and 4OHTam were able to induce toxic effects when used in combination, and 2) daphnids were able to recover when offspring were withdrawn from solutions carrying the pharmaceutical. Second, the stability of tamoxifen, 4OHTam and endoxifen in incubation medium was evaluated in solution exempted from daphnids. Because the nominal concentrations of tamoxifen, 4OHTam and endoxifen did not correspond to the measured, we provide a predictive method to estimate the concentrations of these chemicals during long-term ecotoxicological tests. Finally, changes in protein expressions were analysed in D. pulex exposed 2 or 7 seven days to tamoxifen using ecotoxicoproteomic experiments with a shot-gun approach inducing a peptide fractionation step. Our results show that tamoxifen, 4OHTam and endoxifen induced adverse effects in D. pulex at environmentally relevant concentrations. At very low concentrations, these molecules displayed unusual and teratogenic effects because morphological abnormalities were observed in offspring, such as thick and short antennas, curved spines, premature neonates and aborted eggs. Tamoxifen was the most toxic compound among the test chemicals, followed by 4OHTam, endoxifen and imatinib. Tamoxifen no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) that were calculated for size, reproduction and intrinsic rate were below or in the range of the concentrations measured in natural waters, i.e., between 0.12 µg/L and 0.67 µg/L. For instance, the tamoxifen NOECs that were calculated for reproduction were between 0.67 and 0.72 µg/L, whereas the NOEC was < 0.15 µg/L when based on morphological abnormalities. The NOECs of 4OHTam were higher but still in the same order of magnitude as tamoxifen environmental concentrations, with a value of 1.48 µg/L. Endoxifen NOEC for the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) and the reproduction were 0.4 and 4.3 µg/L, respectively. Daphnids that were withdrawn from tamoxifen and 4OHTam were not able to recover. Also, the reproduction of D. pulex was reduced when the treated animals were exposed to the combination of tamoxifen and 4OHTam while no effects were observed when these chemicals were tested individually at the same concentration. Among the anticancer drugs that were tested during this thesis, imatinib was the less toxic molecule towards D. pulex. No effects on size and reproduction were observed within two generations, except for the first whose reproduction decreased at the highest test concentration, i.e., 626 µg/L. Our results also underline the need to use measured or predicted concentrations instead of the nominal during aquatic experiments, particularly when lipophilic molecules are tested. Indeed, notable differences between nominal (i.e., theoretical) and measured concentrations were found with tamoxifen, 4OHTam and endoxifen at all test concentrations. A cost and time sustainable method was proposed to predict the test exposure levels of these chemicals during long-term experiments. This predictive method was efficient particularly for low concentrations, which corresponded to the test concentrations in multigenerational tests. In the ecotoxicoproteomic experiments a total of 3940 proteins were identified and quantified in D. pulex exposed to tamoxifen. These results are currently the largest dataset from D. pulex that is published and the results of proteomic analyses are available for the scientific community. Among these 3940 proteins, 189 were significantly different from controls. After protein annotation, we assumed that treated daphnids with tamoxifen had shifted cost-energy functions, such as reproduction, to maintain their basic metabolism necessary to survive. This metabolic cost hypothesis was supported by the presence of proteins involved in oxidative stress. Biomarkers for early detection of tamoxifen harmful effects on D. pulex were not discovered but the proteins of the vitellogenin-2 family (E9H8K5) and the ryanodine receptor (E9FTU9) are promising potential biomarkers because their expression was already modified after 2 days of treatment. In this thesis, the effects of tamoxifen, 4OHTam and endoxifen on daphnids raise questions about the potential impact of tamoxifen and 4OHTam in other aquatic ecosystems, and therefore, about metabolites in ecotoxicology. Because the NOECs were environmentally relevant, these results suggest that tamoxifen and 4OHTam may be interesting pharmaceuticals to consider in risk assessment. Our findings also emphasize the importance of performing long-term experiments and of considering multi-endpoints instead of the standard reproductive endpoint. Finally, we open the discussion about the importance to measure test exposures or not, during ecotoxicological studies. -- Les milieux aquatiques sont exposés continuellement à un nombre croissant de substances chimiques, notamment les médicaments issus de la médecine vétérinaire et humaine. Chez les patients, les substances administrées sont utilisées par le corps avant d'être éliminées par l'intermédiaire des excrétas dans le système d'eaux usées de la ville. Ces eaux rejoignent ensuite une station de traitement afin d'y éliminer les déchets. Dans le cas des molécules chimiques, il arrive que les processus de traitement d'eaux usées ne soient pas suffisamment efficaces et que ces molécules ne soient pas dégradées. Elles sont alors libérées dans le milieu aquatique avec les effluents de la station d'épuration. Une fois dans l'environnement, ces résidus de médicaments sont susceptibles d'induire des effets sur la faune et la flore aquatique, dont les conséquences à long terme et à faibles concentrations sont peu connues. Les anticancéreux sont une famille de médicaments qui peuvent échapper aux traitements des stations d'épuration et qui sont retrouvées dans le milieu aquatique naturel. Parmi ces substances, le tamoxifen est une molécule utilisée dans le monde entier pour prévenir et traiter les cancers hormonaux dépendant du sein, notamment. Une fois ingéré, le tamoxifen est transformé par le foie en métabolites dont deux d'entre eux, le 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen (4OHTam) et l'endoxifen, possèdent un affinité pour les récepteurs aux estrogènes et une efficacité sur les cellules tumorales supérieure au tamoxifen lui- même. Tout comme la molécule mère, ces métabolites sont principalement éliminés par l'intermédiaire des fèces. Le tamoxifen a déjà été mesuré dans les effluents de stations d'épuration et dans les eaux naturelles, mais aucune valeur n'a été reportée pour ses métabolites jusqu'à présent. Un autre anticancéreux, également éliminé par voie biliaire et susceptible d'atteindre l'environnement, est l'imatinib. Cette récente molécule a révolutionné le traitement et la survie des patients souffrant de leucémie myéloïde chronique et de tumeur stromales gastrointestinales. Les effets du tamoxifen et de l'imatinib sur plusieurs générations d'organismes aquatiques, tels que les microcrustacés Daphnia, sont inconnus et le 4OHTam et l'endoxifen n'ont même jamais été testés en écotoxicologie. Cette thèse s'est articulée autour de trois objectifs principaux. Premièrement, la sensibilité des D. pulex exposés au tamoxifen, 4OHTam, endoxifen et imatinib a été évaluée par l'intermédiaire de tests aigus et de tests sur deux à quatre générations. La mobilité, la taille, la reproduction, la viabilité et la croissance potentielle de la population ont été relevées au cours de ces expériences. Des tests supplémentaires, à but prospectifs, ont également été réalisés afin d'évaluer 1) la capacité de récupération des daphnies, lorsque leurs descendants ont été placés dans un milieu exempté de tamoxifen ou de 4OHTam, 2) les effets chez les daphnies exposées à une solution contenant de faibles concentration de tamoxifen et de 4OHTam mélangés. Le deuxième objectif a été d'évaluer la stabilité du tamoxifen, 4OHTam et endoxifen dilué dans le milieu des daphnies. Après analyses, les concentrations mesurées ne correspondaient pas aux concentrations nominales (c.-à-d., théoriques) et il a été nécessaire de développer une méthode efficace de prédiction des niveaux d'exposition lors de tests de longue durée réalisés avec ces trois molécules. Finalement, des changements dans l'expression des protéines chez des daphnies exposées au tamoxifen ont été investigués par l'intermédiaire d'expériences écotoxicoprotéomiques avec une approche dite de shot-gun avec une étape de fractionnement des protéines. Les résultats obtenus dans cette thèse montrent que le tamoxifen, le 4OHTam et l'endoxifen induisent des effets indésirables chez les daphnies à des niveaux d'exposition proches ou identiques aux concentrations du tamoxifen mesurées dans l'environnement, c'est-à-dire 0.12 et 0.67 µg/L de tamoxifen. Ces molécules ont induit des effets inhabituels tels que la production de : nouveau-nés anormaux, avec des antennes et des queues déformées, des prématurés et des oeufs avortés. Le tamoxifen fut la molécule la plus toxique pour les D. pulex suivie du 4OHTam, de l'endoxifen et enfin de l'imatinib. Lors des expériences sur plusieurs générations, les concentrations n'ayant statistiquement pas d'effet (c.à.d. NOEC en anglais) sur la taille, la reproduction et la croissance intrinsèque de la population étaient du même ordre de grandeur que les concentrations environnementales du tamoxifen. Par exemple, les NOECs du tamoxifen calculées pour la reproduction étaient de 0.67 et 0.72 µg/L, tandis que celle calculée sur la base des anomalies chez les nouveau-nés était < 0.15 µg/L. Les NOECs du 4OHTam se situaient entre 0.16 et 1.48 µg/L et celles de l'endoxifen pour la croissance intrinsèque de la population, ainsi que pour la reproduction, étaient de 0.4 et 4.3 µg/L, respectivement. Dans l'expérience basée sur la récupération des daphnies, la taille et la reproduction ont diminué bien que la descendance fût placée dans un milieu sans substances chimiques. Les daphnies exposées au mélange de tamoxifen et de 4OHTam ont produit moins de nouveau-nés que les contrôles, alors que ces concentrations n'ont pas induit d'effets lorsque testées individuellement. Finalement, l'imatinib n'a pas montré d'effets sur les deux générations testées. Seule la première génération exposée à la plus haute concentration (626 µg/L) a montré une diminution de la reproduction. Les résultats obtenus lors de l'évaluation de la stabilité du tamoxifen, 4OHTam et endoxifen dans le milieu des daphnies ont souligné l'importance d'utiliser des concentrations mesurées ou prédites en écotoxicologie. En effet, des différences notables entre concentrations nominales et mesurées ont été observées à toutes les concentrations et l'hypothèse d'un phénomène d'adsorption sur le verre des récipients a été posée. De ce fait, il a été nécessaire d'élaborer une méthode prédictive efficace et acceptable, en terme de temps et de coûts. Une régression polynomiale basée sur des concentrations mesurées et nominales a permis de prédire avec efficacité les faibles niveaux d'exposition utilisés lors d'expériences écotoxicologiques à long terme, sur plusieurs générations. Suite aux expériences d'écotoxicoprotéomiques, un total de 3940 protéines ont été identifiées et quantifiées chez des daphnies exposées au tamoxifen. Ce nombre est actuellement la plus large série de données publiées et mises à disposition pour la communauté scientifique. Parmi ces protéines, 189 sont significatives et possiblement reliées à des processus de reproduction et de stress. Sur cette base, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que les individus subissant un stress, lié à l'exposition au tamoxifen, ont utilisé leur énergie de base pour favoriser leur survie plutôt que la reproduction. Enfin, la détermination de bio-marqueurs exprimant des dommages précoces des daphnies exposées au tamoxifen n'a pas abouti en tant que telle, mais des protéines prometteuses, telle que la famille de viellogenin-2 (E9H8K5) et le récepteur à la ryanodine (E9FTU9), ont été exprimées après deux jours d'exposition déjà. Ces protéines pourraient faire l'objet d'investigations écotoxicoprotéomiques futures. Les résultats de cette thèse posent certaines questions quant au risque du tamoxifen, du 4OHTam et de l'endoxifen sur la faune et la flore aquatique et plus particulièrement sur les anticancéreux présents dans l'environnement. Les effets toxiques de ces molécules ont été observés à des concentrations environnementales et sur plusieurs générations. La question de considérer les métabolites, et ainsi les pro-médicaments, en écotoxicologie est soulevée, notamment parce que ces molécules peuvent être plus actives et efficaces que la molécule mère. Les expériences chroniques, sur plusieurs générations sont également à favoriser car elles offrent un meilleur reflet de la réalité environnementale que des essais aigus ou d'une génération. L'utilisation de la protéomique permet d'agrandir les connaissances sur les effets des médicaments à un niveau inférieur de l'organisation biologique et ainsi, de mieux comprendre de potentiels mécanismes d'action ou de déterminer de potentiels biomarqueurs. Finalement, il semble important de discuter de l'opportunité de mesurer les concentrations qui sont testées en écotoxicologie afin de ne pas sous-estimer le risque pour la faune et la flore aquatique.

Forensic science and the paradigm of quality

Due to various contexts and processes, forensic science communities may have different approaches, largely influenced by their criminal justice systems. However, forensic science practices share some common characteristics. One is the assurance of a high (scientific) quality within processes and practices. For most crime laboratory directors and forensic science associations, this issue is conditioned by the triangle of quality, which represents the current paradigm of quality assurance in the field. It consists of the implementation of standardization, certification, accreditation, and an evaluation process. It constitutes a clear and sound way to exchange data between laboratories and enables databasing due to standardized methods ensuring reliable and valid results; but it is also a means of defining minimum requirements for practitioners' skills for specific forensic science activities. The control of each of these aspects offers non-forensic science partners the assurance that the entire process has been mastered and is trustworthy. Most of the standards focus on the analysis stage and do not consider pre- and post-laboratory stages, namely, the work achieved at the investigation scene and the evaluation and interpretation of the results, intended for intelligence beneficiaries or for court. Such localized consideration prevents forensic practitioners from identifying where the problems really lie with regard to criminal justice systems. According to a performance-management approach, scientific quality should not be restricted to standardized procedures and controls in forensic science practice. Ensuring high quality also strongly depends on the way a forensic science culture is assimilated (into specific education training and workplaces) and in the way practitioners understand forensic science as a whole.

Effects of the PPAR-beta agonist GW501516 in an in vitro model of brain inflammation and antibody-induced demyelination.

BACKGROUND: Brain inflammation plays a central role in numerous brain pathologies, including multiple sclerosis (MS). Microglial cells and astrocytes are the effector cells of neuroinflammation. They can be activated also by agents such as interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) and lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Peroxisome proliferator-associated receptor (PPAR) pathways are involved in the control of the inflammatory processes, and PPAR-beta seems to play an important role in the regulation of central inflammation. In addition, PPAR-beta agonists were shown to have trophic effects on oligodendrocytes in vitro, and to confer partial protection in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), an animal model of MS. In the present work, a three-dimensional brain cell culture system was used as in vitro model to study antibody-induced demyelination and inflammatory responses. GW 501516, a specific PPAR-beta agonist, was examined for its capacity to protect from antibody-mediated demyelination and to prevent inflammatory responses induced by IFN-gamma and LPS. METHODS: Aggregating brain cells cultures were prepared from embryonal rat brain, and used to study the inflammatory responses triggered by IFN-gamma and LPS and by antibody-mediated demyelination induced by antibodies directed against myelin-oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG). The effects of GW 501516 on cellular responses were characterized by the quantification of the mRNA expression of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin-6 (IL-6), inducible NO synthase (i-NOS), PPAR-beta, PPAR-gamma, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), myelin basic protein (MBP), and high molecular weight neurofilament protein (NF-H). GFAP expression was also examined by immunocytochemistry, and microglial cells were visualized by isolectin B4 (IB4) and ED1 labeling. RESULTS: GW 501516 decreased the IFN-gamma-induced up-regulation of TNF-alpha and iNOS in accord with the proposed anti-inflammatory effects of this PPAR-beta agonist. However, it increased IL-6 m-RNA expression. In demyelinating cultures, reactivity of both microglial cells and astrocytes was observed, while the expression of the inflammatory cytokines and iNOS remained unaffected. Furthermore, GW 501516 did not protect against the demyelination-induced changes in gene expression. CONCLUSION: Although GW 501516 showed anti-inflammatory activity, it did not protect against antibody-mediated demyelination. This suggests that the protective effects of PPAR-beta agonists observed in vivo can be attributed to their anti-inflammatory properties rather than to a direct protective or trophic effect on oligodendrocytes.