Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

An ecology of centre-based child care

The studies in the thesis were derived from a program of research focused on centre-based child care in Australia. The studies constituted an ecological analysis as they examined proximal and distal factors which have the potential to affect children's developmental opportunities (Bronfenbrenner, 1979). The project was conducted in thirty-two child care centres located in south-east Queensland. Participants in the research included staff members at the centres, families using the centres and their children. The first study described the personal and professional characteristics of one hundred and forty-four child care workers, as well as their job satisfaction and job commitment. Factors impinging on the stability of care afforded to children were examined, specifically child care workers' intentions to leave their current position and actual staff turnover at a twelve month follow-up. This is an ecosystem analysis (Bronfenbrenner & Crouter, 1983), as it examined the world of work for carers; a setting not directly involving the developing child, but which has implications for children's experiences. Staff job satisfaction was focused on working with children and other adults, including parents and colleagues. Involvement with children was reported as being the most rewarding aspect of the work. This intrinsic satisfaction was enough to sustain caregivers' efforts to maintain their employment in child care programs. It was found that, while improving working conditions may help to reduce turnover, it is likely that moderate turnover rates will remain as child care staff work in relatively small centres and they leave in order to improve career prospects. Departure from a child care job appeared to be as much about improving career opportunities or changing personal circumstances, as it was about poor wages and working conditions. In the second study, factors that influence maternal satisfaction with child care arrangements were examined. The focus included examination of the nature and qualities of parental interaction with staff. This was a mesosystem analysis (Bronfenbrenner & Crouter, 1983), as it considered the links between family and child care settings. Two hundred and twenty-two questionnaires were returned from mothers whose children were enrolled in the participating centres. It was found that maternal satisfaction with child care encompassed the domains of child-centred and parent-centred satisfaction. The nature and range of responses in the quantitative and qualitative data indicated that these parents were genuinely satisfied with their children's care. In the prediction of maternal satisfaction with child care, single parents, mothers with high role satisfaction, and mothers who were satisfied with the frequency of staff contact and degree of supportive communication had higher levels of satisfaction with their child care arrangements. The third study described the structural and process variations within child care programs and examined program differences for compliance with regulations and differences by profit status of the centre, as a microsystem analysis (Bronfenbrenner, 1979). Observations were made in eighty-three programs which served children from two to five years. The results of the study affirmed beliefs that nonprofit centres are superior in the quality of care provided, although this was not to a level which meant that the care in for-profit centres was inadequate. Regulation of structural features of child care programs, per se, did not guarantee higher quality child care as measured by global or process indicators. The final study represented an integration of a range of influences in child care and family settings which may impact on development. Features of child care programs which predict children's social and cognitive development, while taking into account child and family characteristics, were identified. Results were consistent with other research findings which show that child and family characteristics and child care quality predict children's development. Child care quality was more important to the prediction of social development, while family factors appeared to be more predictive of cognitive/language development. An influential variable predictive of development was the period of time which the child had been in the centre. This highlighted the importance of the stability of child care arrangements. Child care quality features which had most influence were global ratings of the qualities of the program environment. However, results need to be interpreted cautiously as the explained variance in the predictive models developed was low. The results of these studies are discussed in terms of the implications for practice and future research. Considerations for an expanded view of ecological approaches to child care research are outlined. Issues discussed include the need to generate child care research which is relevant to social policy development, the implications of market driven policies for child care services, professionalism and professionalisation of child care work, and the need to reconceptualise child care research when the goal is to develop greater theoretical understanding about child care environments and developmental processes.

Real estate 2.0 : towards a value ecology?

This paper anatomises emerging developments in online community engagement in a major global industry: real estate. Economists argue that we are entering a ‘social network economy’ in which ‘complex social networks’ govern consumer choice and product value. In the light of this, organisations are shifting from thinking and behaving in the conventional ‘value chain’ model--in which exchanges between firms and customers are one-way only, from the firm to the consumer--to the ‘value ecology’ model, in which consumers and their networks become co-creators of the value of the product. This paper studies the way in which the global real estate industry is responding to this environment. This paper identifies three key areas in which online real estate ‘value ecology’ work is occurring: real estate social networks, games, and locative media / augmented reality applications. Uptake of real estate applications is, of course, user-driven: the paper not only highlights emerging innovations; it also identifies which of these innovations are actually being taken up by users, and the content contributed as a result. The paper thus provides a case study of one major industry’s shift into a web 2.0 communication model, focusing on emerging trends and issues.

The ecology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritdae) : what do we know to assist pest management?

The distribution, systematics and ecology of Bactrocera tryoni, the Queensland fruit fly are reviewed. Bactrocera tryoni is a member of the B. tryoni complex of species, which currently includes four named species, viz. B. tryoni s.s., B. neohumeralis, B. melas and B. aquilonis. The species status of B. melas and B. aquilonis are unclear (they may be junior synonyms of B. tryoni) and their validity, or otherwise, needs to be confirmed as a matter of urgency. While Queensland fruit fly is regarded as a tropical species, it cannot be assumed that its distribution will spread further south under climate change scenarios. Increasing aridity and hot dry summers, as well as more complex, indirect interactions resulting from elevated CO2, make predicting the future distribution and abundance of B. tryoni difficult. The ecology of B. tryoni is reviewed with respect to current control approaches (with the exception of Sterile Insect Technique which is covered in a companion paper). We conclude that there are major gaps in the knowledge required to implement most non-insecticide based management approaches. Priority areas for future research include host plant interactions, protein and cue-lure foraging and use, spatial dynamics, development of new monitoring tools, investigating the use of natural enemies and better integration of fruit flies into general horticultural IPM systems.

Ecology and behavior of first instar larval Lepidoptera

Neonate Lepidoptera are confronted with the daunting task of establishing themselves on a food plant. The factors relevant to this process need to be considered at spatial and temporal scales relevant to the larva and not the investigator. Neonates have to cope with an array of plant surface characters as well as internal characters once the integument is ruptured. These characters, as well as microclimatic conditions, vary within and between plant modules and interact with larval feeding requirements, strongly affecting movement behavior, which may be extensive even for such small organisms. In addition to these factors, there is an array of predators, pathogens, and parasitoids with which first instars must contend. Not surprisingly, mortality in neonates is high but can vary widely. Experimental and manipulative studies, as well as detailed observations of the animal, are vital if the subtle interaction of factors responsible for this high and variable mortality are to be understood. These studies are essential for an understanding of theories linking female oviposition behavior with larval survival, plant defense theory, and population dynamics, as well as modern crop resistance breeding programs.

The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

Importance of soil ecology in vegetation rehabilitation on a North Stradbroke Island sand mine

Sibelco Australia Limited (SAL), a mineral sand mining operation on North Stradbroke Island, undertakes progressive rehabilitation of mined areas. Initial investigations have found that some areas at SAL’s Yarraman Mine have failed to redevelop towards approved criteria. This study, undertaken in 2010, examined ground cover rehabilitation of different aged plots at the Yarraman Mine to determine if there was a relationship between key soil and vegetation attributes. Vegetation and soil data were collected from five plots rehabilitated in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010, and one unmined plot. Cluster (PATN) analysis revealed that vegetation species composition, species richness and ground cover differed between plots. Principal component analysis (PCA) extracted ten soil attributes that were then correlated with vegetation data. The attributes extracted by PCA, in order of most common variance, were: water content, pH, terrolas depth, elevation, slope angle, leaf litter depth, total organic carbon, and counts of macrofauna, fungi and bacteria. All extracted attributes differed between plots, and all except bacteria correlated with at least one vegetation attribute. Water content and pH correlated most strongly with vegetation cover suggesting an increase in soil moisture and a reduction in pH are required in order to improve vegetation rehabilitation at Yarraman Mine. Further study is recommended to confirm these results using controlled experiments and to test potential solutions, such as organic amendments.

(Not) the Twitter election: The dynamics of the #ausvotes conversation in relation to the Australian media ecology

This paper draws on a larger study of the uses of Australian user-created content and online social networks to examine the relationships between professional journalists and highly engaged Australian users of political media within the wider media ecology, with a particular focus on Twitter. It uses an analysis of topic based conversation networks using the #ausvotes hashtag on Twitter around the 2010 federal election to explore the key themes and issues addressed by this Twitter community during the campaign, and finds that Twitter users were largely commenting on the performance of mainstream media and politicians rather than engaging in direct political discussion. The often critical attitude of Twitter users towards the political establishment mirrors the approach of news and political bloggers to political actors, nearly a decade earlier, but the increasing adoption of Twitter as a communication tool by politicians, journalists, and everyday users alike makes a repetition of the polarisation experienced at that time appear unlikely.

Molecules, morphology, and ecology indicate a recent, amphibious ancestry for echidnas

The semiaquatic platypus and terrestrial echidnas (spiny anteaters) are the only living egg-laying mammals (monotremes). The fossil record has provided few clues as to their origins and the evolution of their ecological specializations; however, recent reassignment of the Early Cretaceous Teinolophos and Steropodon to the platypus lineage implies that platypuses and echidnas diverged >112.5 million years ago, reinforcing the notion of monotremes as living fossils. This placement is based primarily on characters related to a single feature, the enlarged mandibular canal, which supplies blood vessels and dense electrosensory receptors to the platypus bill. Our reevaluation of the morphological data instead groups platypus and echidnas to the exclusion of Teinolophos and Steropodon and suggests that an enlarged mandibular canal is ancestral for monotremes (partly reversed in echidnas, in association with general mandibular reduction). A multigene evaluation of the echidna–platypus divergence using both a relaxed molecular clock and direct fossil calibrations reveals a recent split of 19–48 million years ago. Platypus-like monotremes (Monotrematum) predate this divergence, indicating that echidnas had aquatically foraging ancestors that reinvaded terrestrial ecosystems. This ecological shift and the associated radiation of echidnas represent a recent expansion of niche space despite potential competition from marsupials. Monotremes might have survived the invasion of marsupials into Australasia by exploiting ecological niches in which marsupials are restricted by their reproductive mode. Morphology, ecology, and molecular biology together indicate that Teinolophos and Steropodon are basal monotremes rather than platypus relatives, and that living monotremes are a relatively recent radiation.

A ‘Value Ecology’ approach to the performing arts

In recent years, ecological thinking has been applied to a range of social, cultural and aesthetic systems, including performing arts as a living system of policy makers, producers, organisations, artists and audiences. Ecological thinking is systems-based thinking which allows us to see the performing arts as a complex and protean ecosystem; to explain how elements in this system act and interact; and to evaluate its effects on Australia’s social fabric over time. According to Gallasch, ecological thinking is “what we desperately need for the arts.” It enables us to “defeat the fragmentary and utilitarian view of the arts that dominates, to make connections, to establish overviews of the arts that can be shared and debated” (Gallasch NP). John Baylis took up these issues in "Mapping Queensland Theatre" (2009), an Arts Queensland-funded survey designed to map practices in Brisbane and in Queensland more broadly, and to provide a platform to support future policy-making. In this paper, we propose a new approach to mapping Brisbane’s and Queensland’s theatre that extends Baylis’ ‘value chain’ into a ‘value ecology’ that provides a more textured picture of players, patterns, relationships and activity levels in local performing arts.