Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Air quality and its impact on health: focus on particulate matter

Inadequate air quality and the inhalation of airborne pollutants pose many risks to human health and wellbeing, and are listed among the top environmental risks worldwide. The importance of outdoor air quality was recognised in the 1950s and indoor air quality emerged as an issue some time later and was soon recognised as having an equal, if not greater importance than outdoor air quality. Identification of ambient air pollution as a health hazard was followed by steps, undertaken by a broad range of national and international professional and government organisations, aimed at reduction or elimination of the hazard. However, the process of achieving better air quality is still in progress. The last 10 years or so have seen an unprecedented increase in the interest in, and attention to, airborne particles, with a special focus on their finer size fractions, including ultrafine (< 0.1 m) and their subset, nano particles (< 0.05 m). This paper discusses the current status of scientific knowledge on the links between air quality and health, with a particular focus on airborne particulate matter, and the directions taken by national and international bodies to improve air quality.

Soil carbon sequestration rates and associated economic costs for farming systems of south-eastern Australia

Soil organic carbon (C) sequestration rates based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) methodology were combined with local economic data to simulate the economic potential for C sequestration in response to conservation tillage in the six agro-ecological zones within the Southern Region of the Australian grains industry. The net C sequestration rate over 20 years for the Southern Region (which includes discounting for associated greenhouse gases) is estimated to be 3.6 or 6.3 Mg C/ha after converting to either minimum or no-tillage practices, respectively, with no-till practices estimated to return 75% more carbon on average than minimum tillage. The highest net gains in C per ha are realised when converting from conventional to no-tillage practices in the high-activity clay soils of the High Rainfall and Wimmera agro-ecological zones. On the basis of total area available for change, the Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the highest net returns, potentially sequestering an additional 7.1 Mt C under no-tillage scenario over 20 years. The economic analysis was summarised as C supply curves for each of the 6 zones expressing the total additional C accumulated over 20 years for a price per t C sequestered ranging from zero to AU$200. For a price of $50/Mg C, a total of 427 000 Mg C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <5% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 9.1 Mt for the region. The Wimmera and Mid-North offer the largest gains in C under minimum tillage over 20 years of all zones for all C prices. For the no-tillage scenario, for a price of $50/Mg C, 1.74 Mt C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <10% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 18.6 Mt for the region over 20 years. The Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the best return in C over 20 years under no-tillage for all C prices. The Mallee offers the least return for both minimum and no-tillage scenarios. At a price of $200/Mg C, the transition from conventional tillage to minimum or no-tillage practices will only realise 19% and 33%, respectively, of the total biogeochemical sequestration potential of crop and pasture systems of the Southern Region over a 20-year period.

Exploiting the 1,2,3-triazolium motif in anion-templated formation of a bromide-selective rotaxane host assembly

Stimulated by the efficacy of copper (I) catalysed Huisgen-type 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition of terminal alkynes and organic azides to generate 1,4-disubstituted 1,2,3-triazole derivatives, the importance of ‘click’ chemistry in the synthesis of organic and biological molecular systems is ever increasing.[1] The mild reaction conditions have also led to this reaction gaining favour in the construction of interlocked molecular architectures.[2-4] In the majority of cases however, the triazole group simply serves as a covalent linkage with no function in the resulting organic molecular framework. More recently a renewed interest has been shown in the transition metal coordination chemistry of triazole ligands.[3, 5, 6] In addition novel aryl macrocyclic and acyclic triazole based oligomers have been shown to recognise halide anions via cooperative triazole C5-H….anion hydrogen bonds.[7] In light of this it is surprising the potential anion binding affinity of the positively charged triazolium motif has not, with one notable exception,[8] been investigated. With the objective of manipulating the unique topological cavities of mechanically bonded molecules for anion recognition purposes, we have developed general methods of using anions to template the formation of interpenetrated and interlocked structures.[9-13] Herein we report the first examples of exploiting the 1,2,3-triazolium group in the anion templated formation of pseudorotaxane and rotaxane assemblies. In an unprecedented discovery the bromide anion is shown to be a superior templating reagent to chloride in the synthesis of a novel triazolium axle containing [2]rotaxane. Furthermore the resulting rotaxane interlocked host system exhibits the rare selectivity preference for bromide over chloride...