Time variant reliability model updating in instrumented dynamical systems based on Girsanov's transformation

The problem of updating the reliability of instrumented structures based on measured response under random dynamic loading is considered. A solution strategy within the framework of Monte Carlo simulation based dynamic state estimation method and Girsanov's transformation for variance reduction is developed. For linear Gaussian state space models, the solution is developed based on continuous version of the Kalman filter, while, for non-linear and (or) non-Gaussian state space models, bootstrap particle filters are adopted. The controls to implement the Girsanov transformation are developed by solving a constrained non-linear optimization problem. Numerical illustrations include studies on a multi degree of freedom linear system and non-linear systems with geometric and (or) hereditary non-linearities and non-stationary random excitations.

Time variant reliability model updating in instrumented dynamical systems based on Girsanov’s transformation

The problem of updating the reliability of instrumented structures based on measured response under random dynamic loading is considered. A solution strategy within the framework of Monte Carlo simulation based dynamic state estimation method and Girsanov’s transformation for variance reduction is developed. For linear Gaussian state space models, the solution is developed based on continuous version of the Kalman filter, while, for non-linear and (or) non-Gaussian state space models, bootstrap particle filters are adopted. The controls to implement the Girsanov transformation are developed by solving a constrained non-linear optimization problem. Numerical illustrations include studies on a multi degree of freedom linear system and non-linear systems with geometric and (or) hereditary non-linearities and non-stationary random excitations.

Design, specification, and synthesis of aircraft electric power systems control logic

Cyber-physical systems integrate computation, networking, and physical processes. Substantial research challenges exist in the design and verification of such large-scale, distributed sensing, ac- tuation, and control systems. Rapidly improving technology and recent advances in control theory, networked systems, and computer science give us the opportunity to drastically improve our approach to integrated flow of information and cooperative behavior. Current systems rely on text-based spec- ifications and manual design. Using new technology advances, we can create easier, more efficient, and cheaper ways of developing these control systems. This thesis will focus on design considera- tions for system topologies, ways to formally and automatically specify requirements, and methods to synthesize reactive control protocols, all within the context of an aircraft electric power system as a representative application area.

This thesis consists of three complementary parts: synthesis, specification, and design. The first section focuses on the synthesis of central and distributed reactive controllers for an aircraft elec- tric power system. This approach incorporates methodologies from computer science and control. The resulting controllers are correct by construction with respect to system requirements, which are formulated using the specification language of linear temporal logic (LTL). The second section addresses how to formally specify requirements and introduces a domain-specific language for electric power systems. A software tool automatically converts high-level requirements into LTL and synthesizes a controller.

The final sections focus on design space exploration. A design methodology is proposed that uses mixed-integer linear programming to obtain candidate topologies, which are then used to synthesize controllers. The discrete-time control logic is then verified in real-time by two methods: hardware and simulation. Finally, the problem of partial observability and dynamic state estimation is ex- plored. Given a set placement of sensors on an electric power system, measurements from these sensors can be used in conjunction with control logic to infer the state of the system.

Neural and computational representations of decision variables

These studies explore how, where, and when representations of variables critical to decision-making are represented in the brain. In order to produce a decision, humans must first determine the relevant stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes before applying an algorithm that will select an action from those available. When choosing amongst alternative stimuli, the framework of value-based decision-making proposes that values are assigned to the stimuli and that these values are then compared in an abstract “value space” in order to produce a decision. Despite much progress, in particular regarding the pinpointing of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a region that encodes the value, many basic questions remain. In Chapter 2, I show that distributed BOLD signaling in vmPFC represents the value of stimuli under consideration in a manner that is independent of the type of stimulus it is. Thus the open question of whether value is represented in abstraction, a key tenet of value-based decision-making, is confirmed. However, I also show that stimulus-dependent value representations are also present in the brain during decision-making and suggest a potential neural pathway for stimulus-to-value transformations that integrates these two results.

More broadly speaking, there is both neural and behavioral evidence that two distinct control systems are at work during action selection. These two systems compose the “goal-directed system”, which selects actions based on an internal model of the environment, and the “habitual” system, which generates responses based on antecedent stimuli only. Computational characterizations of these two systems imply that they have different informational requirements in terms of input stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes. Associative learning theory predicts that the habitual system should utilize stimulus and action information only, while goal-directed behavior requires that outcomes as well as stimuli and actions be processed. In Chapter 3, I test whether areas of the brain hypothesized to be involved in habitual versus goal-directed control represent the corresponding theorized variables.

The question of whether one or both of these neural systems drives Pavlovian conditioning is less well-studied. Chapter 4 describes an experiment in which subjects were scanned while engaged in a Pavlovian task with a simple non-trivial structure. After comparing a variety of model-based and model-free learning algorithms (thought to underpin goal-directed and habitual decision-making, respectively), it was found that subjects’ reaction times were better explained by a model-based system. In addition, neural signaling of precision, a variable based on a representation of a world model, was found in the amygdala. These data indicate that the influence of model-based representations of the environment can extend even to the most basic learning processes.

Knowledge of the state of hidden variables in an environment is required for optimal inference regarding the abstract decision structure of a given environment and therefore can be crucial to decision-making in a wide range of situations. Inferring the state of an abstract variable requires the generation and manipulation of an internal representation of beliefs over the values of the hidden variable. In Chapter 5, I describe behavioral and neural results regarding the learning strategies employed by human subjects in a hierarchical state-estimation task. In particular, a comprehensive model fit and comparison process pointed to the use of "belief thresholding". This implies that subjects tended to eliminate low-probability hypotheses regarding the state of the environment from their internal model and ceased to update the corresponding variables. Thus, in concert with incremental Bayesian learning, humans explicitly manipulate their internal model of the generative process during hierarchical inference consistent with a serial hypothesis testing strategy.

Computational approaches to motor control.

This review will focus on four areas of motor control which have recently been enriched both by neural network and control system models: motor planning, motor prediction, state estimation and motor learning. We will review the computational foundations of each of these concepts and present specific models which have been tested by psychophysical experiments. We will cover the topics of optimal control for motor planning, forward models for motor prediction, observer models of state estimation arid modular decomposition in motor learning. The aim of this review is to demonstrate how computational approaches, as well as proposing specific models, provide a theoretical framework to formalize the issues in motor control.

LQ optimal and risk-sensitive control for vehicle suspensions

This paper is concerned with time-domain optimal control of active suspensions. The optimal control problem formulation has been generalised by incorporating both road disturbances (ride quality) and a representation of driver inputs (handling quality) into the optimal control formulation. A regular optimal control problem as well as a risk-sensitive exponential optimal control performance index is considered. Emphasis has been given to practical considerations including the issue of state estimation in the presence of load disturbances (driver inputs). © 2012 IEEE.

Adaptive fading Kalman filter with an application

A new adaptive state estimation algorithm, namely adaptive fading Kalman filter (AFKF), is proposed to solve the divergence problem of Kalman filter. A criterion function is constructed to measure the optimality of Kalman filter. The forgetting factor in AFKF is adaptively adjusted by minimizing the defined criterion function using measured outputs. The algorithm remains convergent and tends to be optimal in the presence of model errors. It has been successfully applied to the headbox of a paper-making machine for state estimation.

Plant-wide predictive control for a thermal power plant based on a physical plant model

A constrained non-linear, physical model-based, predictive control (NPMPC) strategy is developed for improved plant-wide control of a thermal power plant. The strategy makes use of successive linearisation and recursive state estimation using extended Kalman filtering to obtain a linear state-space model. The linear model and a quadratic programming routine are used to design a constrained long-range predictive controller One special feature is the careful selection of a specific set of plant model parameters for online estimation, to account for time-varying system characteristics resulting from major system disturbances and ageing. These parameters act as nonstationary stochastic states and help to provide sufficient degrees-of-freedom to obtain unbiased estimates of controlled outputs. A 14th order non-linear plant model, simulating the dominant characteristics of a 200 MW oil-fired pou er plant has been used to test the NPMPC algorithm. The control strategy gives impressive simulation results, during large system disturbances and extremely high rate of load changes, right across the operating range. These results compare favourably to those obtained with the state-space GPC method designed under similar conditions.

Fault Diagnostics for Internal Combustion Engines – Current and Future Techniques

The adoption of each new level of automotive emissions legislation often requires the introduction of additional emissions reduction techniques or the development of existing emissions control systems. This, in turn, usually requires the implementation of new sensors and hardware which must subsequently be monitored by the on-board fault detection systems. The reliable detection and diagnosis of faults in these systems or sensors, which result in the tailpipe emissions rising above the progressively lower failure thresholds, provides enormous challenges for OBD engineers. This paper gives a review of the field of fault detection and diagnostics as used in the automotive industry. Previous work is discussed and particular emphasis is placed on the various strategies and techniques employed. Methodologies such as state estimation, parity equations and parameter estimation are explained with their application within a physical model diagnostic structure. The utilization of symptoms and residuals in the diagnostic process is also discussed. These traditional physical model based diagnostics are investigated in terms of their limitations. The requirements from the OBD legislation are also addressed. Additionally, novel diagnostic techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) are also presented as a potential method of achieving the monitoring requirements of current and future OBD legislation.

Formation Control Driven by Cooperative Object Tracking

In this paper we introduce a formation control loop that maximizes the performance of the cooperative perception of a tracked target by a team of mobile robots, while maintaining the team in formation, with a dynamically adjustable geometry which is a function of the quality of the target perception by the team. In the formation control loop, the controller module is a distributed non-linear model predictive controller and the estimator module fuses local estimates of the target state, obtained by a particle filter at each robot. The two modules and their integration are described in detail, including a real-time database associated to a wireless communication protocol that facilitates the exchange of state data while reducing collisions among team members. Simulation and real robot results for indoor and outdoor teams of different robots are presented. The results highlight how our method successfully enables a team of homogeneous robots to minimize the total uncertainty of the tracked target cooperative estimate while complying with performance criteria such as keeping a pre-set distance between the teammates and the target, avoiding collisions with teammates and/or surrounding obstacles.

Applying the extended Kalman filter to systems described by nonlinear differential-algebraic equations

This paper describes a method for the state estimation of nonlinear systems described by a class of differential-algebraic equation models using the extended Kalman filter. The method involves the use of a time-varying linearisation of a semi-explicit index one differential-algebraic equation. The estimation technique consists of a simplified extended Kalman filter that is integrated with the differential-algebraic equation model. The paper describes a simulation study using a model of a batch chemical reactor. It also reports a study based on experimental data obtained from a mixing process, where the model of the system is solved using the sequential modular method and the estimation involves a bank of extended Kalman filters.

Regularization techniques for ill-posed inverse problems in data assimilation

Optimal state estimation from given observations of a dynamical system by data assimilation is generally an ill-posed inverse problem. In order to solve the problem, a standard Tikhonov, or L2, regularization is used, based on certain statistical assumptions on the errors in the data. The regularization term constrains the estimate of the state to remain close to a prior estimate. In the presence of model error, this approach does not capture the initial state of the system accurately, as the initial state estimate is derived by minimizing the average error between the model predictions and the observations over a time window. Here we examine an alternative L1 regularization technique that has proved valuable in image processing. We show that for examples of flow with sharp fronts and shocks, the L1 regularization technique performs more accurately than standard L2 regularization.

Modal coupling in linear control systems using robust eigenstructure assignment

Eigenvalue assignment methods are used widely in the design of control and state-estimation systems. The corresponding eigenvectors can be selected to ensure robustness. For specific applications, eigenstructure assignment can also be applied to achieve more general performance criteria. In this paper a new output feedback design approach using robust eigenstructure assignment to achieve prescribed mode input and output coupling is described. A minimisation technique is developed to improve both the mode coupling and the robustness of the system, whilst allowing the precision of the eigenvalue placement to be relaxed. An application to the design of an automatic flight control system is demonstrated.

Regularization of descriptor systems

Implicit dynamic-algebraic equations, known in control theory as descriptor systems, arise naturally in many applications. Such systems may not be regular (often referred to as singular). In that case the equations may not have unique solutions for consistent initial conditions and arbitrary inputs and the system may not be controllable or observable. Many control systems can be regularized by proportional and/or derivative feedback.We present an overview of mathematical theory and numerical techniques for regularizing descriptor systems using feedback controls. The aim is to provide stable numerical techniques for analyzing and constructing regular control and state estimation systems and for ensuring that these systems are robust. State and output feedback designs for regularizing linear time-invariant systems are described, including methods for disturbance decoupling and mixed output problems. Extensions of these techniques to time-varying linear and nonlinear systems are discussed in the final section.

Conditioning of the weak-constraint variational data assimilation problem for numerical weather prediction

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) assimilates observations through the minimisation of a least-squares objective function, which is constrained by the model flow. We refer to 4DVAR as strong-constraint 4DVAR (sc4DVAR) in this thesis as it assumes the model is perfect. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to weak-constraint 4DVAR (wc4DVAR), leading to a different minimisation problem with more degrees of freedom. We consider two wc4DVAR formulations in this thesis, the model error formulation and state estimation formulation. The 4DVAR objective function is traditionally solved using gradient-based iterative methods. The principle method used in Numerical Weather Prediction today is the Gauss-Newton approach. This method introduces a linearised `inner-loop' objective function, which upon convergence, updates the solution of the non-linear `outer-loop' objective function. This requires many evaluations of the objective function and its gradient, which emphasises the importance of the Hessian. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian provide insight into the degree of convexity of the objective function, while also indicating the difficulty one may encounter while iterative solving 4DVAR. The condition number of the Hessian is an appropriate measure for the sensitivity of the problem to input data. The condition number can also indicate the rate of convergence and solution accuracy of the minimisation algorithm. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of the solution process minimising both wc4DVAR objective functions to the internal assimilation parameters composing the problem. We gain insight into these sensitivities by bounding the condition number of the Hessians of both objective functions. We also precondition the model error objective function and show improved convergence. We show that both formulations' sensitivities are related to error variance balance, assimilation window length and correlation length-scales using the bounds. We further demonstrate this through numerical experiments on the condition number and data assimilation experiments using linear and non-linear chaotic toy models.