Cambios observados en las variables clínicas y paraclínicas en las primeras 48 horas de hospitalización en la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos de pacientes con neumonía severa adquirida en la comunidad y su relación con la mortalidad

El pronóstico de la Neumonía Adquirida en la Comunidad Severa (NAC-S) depende de decisiones terapéuticas instauradas tempranamente. Los cambios fisiológicos ocurridos en las primeras horas pueden ser difíciles de detectar. No existe ningún modelo para la determinación temprana del éxito de la terapia instaurada en NAC-S. Metodología: Descripción de la totalidad de los pacientes con NAC-S hospitalizados en la Unidad de Cuidado Intensivo de la Fundación Cardioinfantil entre los años 2008 y 2012 haciendo comparaciones entre grupos (muertos vs. supervivientes) y entre momentos (0, 24 y 48 horas desde el ingreso a la UCI) y realizando regresión logística binaria. Resultados: Entre los pacientes que fallecieron la necesidad de soporte vasoactivo fue mayor en todos los momentos evaluados (sig=0.001), en la línea de base tuvieron mayores requerimientos de la Fracción Inspirada de O2 (mediana 0.55% vs. 0.50%, sig=0.011), a las 24 horas tuvieron pH (mediana 7.345 vs.7.370, sig=0.025) y tensión arterial diastólica (mediana 58.5mmHg vs.61.0mmHg, sig =0.049) menores, y a las 48 horas glicemia (mediana 157mg/dL vs.142mg/dL, sig =0.026) creatinina (mediana 1.1mg/dL vs.0.7mg/dL, sig =0.062) y nitrógeno ureico (mediana 35mg/dL vs. 22mg/dL, sig =0.003) mayores comparados con los pacientes que sobrevivieron. Entre los pacientes supervivientes hubo una disminución de la frecuencia cardiaca entre las 0 y 24 horas (mediana 97lpm vs. 86lpm, sig =0.000) y entre las 0 y las 48 horas (mediana 97lpm vs. 81lpm, sig=0.000) y una disminución de los neutrófilos entre las 0 y las 48 horas (mediana 9838 vs. 8617, sig=0.062). Conclusiones: Nuestros hallazgos sugieren la existencia de una secuencia de fenómenos fisiopatológicos que al ser reconocida temprana y claramente permitiría establecer un plan de reanimación más especifico y eficaz. Estas diferencias se pueden plantear en el contexto de un modelo mixto predictivo

Use of Large Clear-Cuts by Wilson’s Warbler in an Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

Wilson’s Warbler (Cardellina pusilla; WIWA) has been declining for several decades, possibly because of habitat loss. We compared occupancy of territorial males in two habitat types of Québec’s boreal forest, alder (Alnus spp.) scrubland and recent clear-cuts. Singing males occurred in clusters, their occupancy was similar in both habitats, but increased with the amount of alder or clear-cut within 400 m of point-count stations. A despotic distribution of males between habitats appeared unlikely, because there were no differences in morphology between males captured in clear-cuts vs. alder. Those results contrast with the prevailing view, mostly based on western populations, that WIWA are wetland or riparian specialists, and provide the first evidence for a preference for large tracts of habitat in this species. Clear-cuts in the boreal forest may benefit WIWA by supplying alternative nesting habitat. However, the role of clear-cuts as source or sink habitats needs to be addressed with data on reproduction.

Ecological and life-history traits predict bee species responses to environmental disturbances

The ability to predict the responses of ecological communities and individual species to human-induced environmental change remains a key issue for ecologists and conservation managers alike. Responses are often variable among species within groups making general predictions difficult. One option is to include ecological trait information that might help to disentangle patterns of response and also provide greater understanding of how particular traits link whole clades to their environment. Although this ‘‘trait-guild” approach has been used for single disturbances, the importance of particular traits on general responses to multiple disturbances has not been explored. We used a mixed model analysis of 19 data sets from throughout the world to test the effect of ecological and life-history traits on the responses of bee species to different types of anthropogenic environmental change. These changes included habitat loss, fragmentation, agricultural intensification, pesticides and fire. Individual traits significantly affected bee species responses to different disturbances and several traits were broadly predictive among multiple disturbances. The location of nests – above vs. below ground – significantly affected response to habitat loss, agricultural intensification, tillage regime (within agriculture) and fire. Species that nested above ground were on average more negatively affected by isolation from natural habitat and intensive agricultural land use than were species nesting below ground. In contrast below-ground-nesting species were more negatively affected by tilling than were above-ground nesters. The response of different nesting guilds to fire depended on the time since the burn. Social bee species were more strongly affected by isolation from natural habitat and pesticides than were solitary bee species. Surprisingly, body size did not consistently affect species responses, despite its importance in determining many aspects of individuals’ interaction with their environment. Although synergistic interactions among traits remain to be explored, individual traits can be useful in predicting and understanding responses of related species to global change.

Meta-analysis: a unifying meta-likelihood approach framing unobserved heterogeneity, study covariates, publication bias, and study quality

OBJECTIVES: This contribution provides a unifying concept for meta-analysis integrating the handling of unobserved heterogeneity, study covariates, publication bias and study quality. It is important to consider these issues simultaneously to avoid the occurrence of artifacts, and a method for doing so is suggested here. METHODS: The approach is based upon the meta-likelihood in combination with a general linear nonparametric mixed model, which lays the ground for all inferential conclusions suggested here. RESULTS: The concept is illustrated at hand of a meta-analysis investigating the relationship of hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer. The phenomenon of interest has been investigated in many studies for a considerable time and different results were reported. In 1992 a meta-analysis by Sillero-Arenas et al. concluded a small, but significant overall effect of 1.06 on the relative risk scale. Using the meta-likelihood approach it is demonstrated here that this meta-analysis is due to considerable unobserved heterogeneity. Furthermore, it is shown that new methods are available to model this heterogeneity successfully. It is argued further to include available study covariates to explain this heterogeneity in the meta-analysis at hand. CONCLUSIONS: The topic of HRT and breast cancer has again very recently become an issue of public debate, when results of a large trial investigating the health effects of hormone replacement therapy were published indicating an increased risk for breast cancer (risk ratio of 1.26). Using an adequate regression model in the previously published meta-analysis an adjusted estimate of effect of 1.14 can be given which is considerably higher than the one published in the meta-analysis of Sillero-Arenas et al. In summary, it is hoped that the method suggested here contributes further to a good meta-analytic practice in public health and clinical disciplines.

Evaluation of milk urea nitrogen as a diagnostic of protein feeding

An evaluation of milk urea nitrogen (MUN) as a diagnostic of protein feeding in dairy cows was performed using mean treatment data (n = 306) from 50 production trials conducted in Finland (n = 48) and Sweden (n = 2). Data were used to assess the effects of diet composition and certain animal characteristics on MUN and to derive relationships between MUN and the efficiency of N utilization for milk production and urinary N excretion. Relationships were developed using regression analysis based on either models of fixed factors or using mixed models that account for between-experiment variations. Dietary crude protein (CP) content was the best single predictor of MUN and accounted for proportionately 0.778 of total variance [ MUN (mg/dL) = -14.2 + 0.17 x dietary CP content (g/kg dry matter)]. The proportion of variation explained by this relationship increased to 0.952 when a mixed model including the random effects of study was used, but both the intercept and slope remained unchanged. Use of rumen degradable CP concentration in excess of predicted requirements, or the ratio of dietary CP to metabolizable energy as single predictors, did not explain more of the variation in MUN (R-2 = 0.767 or 0.778, respectively) than dietary CP content. Inclusion of other dietary factors with dietary CP content in bivariate models resulted in only marginally better predictions of MUN (R-2 = 0.785 to 0.804). Closer relationships existed between MUN and dietary factors when nutrients (CP to metabolizable energy) were expressed as concentrations in the diet, rather than absolute intakes. Furthermore, both MUN and MUN secretion (g/d) provided more accurate predictions of urinary N excretion (R-2 = 0.787 and 0.835, respectively) than measurements of the efficiency of N utilization for milk production (R-2 = 0.769). It is concluded that dietary CP content is the most important nutritional factor influencing MUN, and that measurements of MUN can be utilized as a diagnostic of protein feeding in the dairy cow and used to predict urinary N excretion.

Meta-analysis of relationships between enteric methane yield and milk fatty acid profile in dairy cattle

Various studies have indicated a relationship between enteric methane (CH4) production and milk fatty acid (FA) profiles of dairy cattle. However, the number of studies investigating such a relationship is limited and the direct relationships reported are mainly obtained by variation in CH4 production and milk FA concentration induced by dietary lipid supplements. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to quantify relationships between CH4 yield (per unit of feed and unit of milk) and milk FA profile in dairy cattle and to develop equations to predict CH4 yield based on milk FA profile of cows fed a wide variety of diets. Data from 8 experiments encompassing 30 different dietary treatments and 146 observations were included. Yield of CH4 measured in these experiments was 21.5 ± 2.46 g/kg of dry matter intake (DMI) and 13.9 ± 2.30 g/ kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM). Correlation coefficients were chosen as effect size of the relationship between CH4 yield and individual milk FA concentration (g/100 g of FA). Average true correlation coefficients were estimated by a random-effects model. Milk FA concentrations of C6:0, C8:0, C10:0, C16:0, and C16:0-iso were significantly or tended to be positively related to CH4 yield per unit of feed. Concentrations of trans-6+7+8+9 C18:1, trans-10+11 C18:1, cis- 11 C18:1, cis-12 C18:1, cis-13 C18:1, trans-16+cis-14 C18:1, and cis-9,12 C18:2 in milk fat were significantly or tended to be negatively related to CH4 yield per unit of feed. Milk FA concentrations of C10:0, C12:0, C14:0-iso, C14:0, cis-9 C14:1, C15:0, and C16:0 were significantly or tended to be positively related to CH4 yield per unit of milk. Concentrations of C4:0, C18:0, trans-10+11 C18:1, cis-9 C18:1, cis-11 C18:1, and cis- 9,12 C18:2 in milk fat were significantly or tended to be negatively related to CH4 yield per unit of milk. Mixed model multiple regression and a stepwise selection procedure of milk FA based on the Bayesian information criterion to predict CH4 yield with milk FA as input (g/100 g of FA) resulted in the following prediction equations: CH4 (g/kg of DMI) = 23.39 + 9.74 × C16:0- iso – 1.06 × trans-10+11 C18:1 – 1.75 × cis-9,12 C18:2 (R2 = 0.54), and CH4 (g/kg of FPCM) = 21.13 – 1.38 × C4:0 + 8.53 × C16:0-iso – 0.22 × cis-9 C18:1 – 0.59 × trans-10+11 C18:1 (R2 = 0.47). This indicated that milk FA profile has a moderate potential for predicting CH4 yield per unit of feed and a slightly lower potential for predicting CH4 yield per unit of milk. Key words: methane , milk fatty acid profile , metaanalysis , dairy cattle

Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel Statistical Methods in Quantitative Genetics : Modeling Genetic Variance for Quantitative Trait Loci Mapping and Genomic Evaluation

This thesis develops and evaluates statistical methods for different types of genetic analyses, including quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, genome-wide association study (GWAS), and genomic evaluation. The main contribution of the thesis is to provide novel insights in modeling genetic variance, especially via random effects models. In variance component QTL analysis, a full likelihood model accounting for uncertainty in the identity-by-descent (IBD) matrix was developed. It was found to be able to correctly adjust the bias in genetic variance component estimation and gain power in QTL mapping in terms of precision.  Double hierarchical generalized linear models, and a non-iterative simplified version, were implemented and applied to fit data of an entire genome. These whole genome models were shown to have good performance in both QTL mapping and genomic prediction. A re-analysis of a publicly available GWAS data set identified significant loci in Arabidopsis that control phenotypic variance instead of mean, which validated the idea of variance-controlling genes.  The works in the thesis are accompanied by R packages available online, including a general statistical tool for fitting random effects models (hglm), an efficient generalized ridge regression for high-dimensional data (bigRR), a double-layer mixed model for genomic data analysis (iQTL), a stochastic IBD matrix calculator (MCIBD), a computational interface for QTL mapping (qtl.outbred), and a GWAS analysis tool for mapping variance-controlling loci (vGWAS).

Genetic heterogeneity of residual variance : estimation of variance components using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: The sensitivity to microenvironmental changes varies among animals and may be under genetic control. It is essential to take this element into account when aiming at breeding robust farm animals. Here, linear mixed models with genetic effects in the residual variance part of the model can be used. Such models have previously been fitted using EM and MCMC algorithms. Results: We propose the use of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM), where the squared residuals are assumed to be gamma distributed and the residual variance is fitted using a generalized linear model. The algorithm iterates between two sets of mixed model equations, one on the level of observations and one on the level of variances. The method was validated using simulations and also by re-analyzing a data set on pig litter size that was previously analyzed using a Bayesian approach. The pig litter size data contained 10,060 records from 4,149 sows. The DHGLM was implemented using the ASReml software and the algorithm converged within three minutes on a Linux server. The estimates were similar to those previously obtained using Bayesian methodology, especially the variance components in the residual variance part of the model. Conclusions: We have shown that variance components in the residual variance part of a linear mixed model can be estimated using a DHGLM approach. The method enables analyses of animal models with large numbers of observations. An important future development of the DHGLM methodology is to include the genetic correlation between the random effects in the mean and residual variance parts of the model as a parameter of the DHGLM.

Changes in sedentary behavior among adolescent girls: a 2.5-Year prospective cohort study

Purpose: To describe longitudinal changes in leisure-time sedentary behavior among girls, during early to mid-adolescence. Methods: A 2.5-year prospective cohort study, comprising 5 data collections, 6 months apart, between 2000 and 2002. Girls aged 12–15 years (n = 200) from 8 high schools located in Sydney, Australia, self-reported the usual time spent each week in a comprehensive range of sedentary behaviors.  Results: Retention rate for the study was 82%. Girls aged 12.8 years spent approximately 45% of their discretionary time in sedentary behavior, which increased to 63% at age 14.9 years. Watching TV, videos, and playing video games (small screen recreation; SSR) was the most popular sedentary pastime, accounting for 33% of time spent in sedentariness, followed by homework and reading (25%). Sedentary behavior increased 1.4 and 3.3 hours on week and weekend days, respectively. On weekdays, increased time was spent on hobbies (27 min/day) and on weekend days, increased time was spent sitting around talking with friends (60 min/day), computer use (37 min/day), and television viewing (34 min/day). Conclusions: Among girls, the transition between early and mid-adolescence was accompanied by a significant increase in leisure-time sedentary behavior. Interventions to reduce sedentariness among adolescent girls are best to focus on weekend behaviors. Studies seeking to examine the association between inactivity and the development of chronic health problems need to examine a diverse range of activities that comprehensively measure sedentariness. This information will provide a better understanding of inactivity patterns among adolescent girls.

Evaluation of the Living 4 Life project : a youth-led, school-based obesity prevention study

The Living 4 Life study was a youth-led, school-based intervention to reduce obesity in New Zealand. The study design was quasi-experimental, with comparisons made by two cross-sectional samples within schools. Student data were collected at baseline (n = 1634) and at the end of the 3-year intervention (n = 1612). A random-effects mixed model was used to test for changes in primary outcomes (e.g. anthropometry and obesity-related behaviours) between intervention and comparison schools. There were no significant differences in changes in anthropometry or behaviours between intervention and comparison schools. The prevalence of obesity in intervention schools was 32% at baseline and 35% at follow-up and in comparison schools was 29% and 30%, respectively. Within school improvements in obesity-related behaviours were observed in three intervention schools and one comparison school. One intervention school observed several negative changes in student behaviours. In conclusion, there were no significant improvements to anthropometry; this may reflect the intervention’s lack of intensity, insufficient duration, or that by adolescence changes in anthropometry and related behaviours are difficult to achieve. School-based obesity prevention interventions that actively involve young people in the design of interventions may result in improvements in student behaviours, but require active support from leaders within their schools.

Blood mineral, trace-element and vitamin concentrations in Huacaya alpacas and Merino sheep grazing the same pasture

We aimed to determine whether the concentration of minerals and trace constituents in blood of Merino sheep and Huacaya alpacas grazing the same pasture differed with species and time of sampling. Blood samples and pasture samples were collected at frequent intervals over a period of 2 years for mineral and trace-nutrient assay. The concentration of the minerals and trace nutrients in the grazed pasture usually met the dietary needs of sheep at maintenance, apart from potassium, sulfur, cobalt and Vitamin E in occasional samples. Restricted maximum likelihood mixed model analysis indicated a significant (P < 0.001) species by month by year interaction for all blood constituents assayed, a significant (P < 0.05) species by coat shade interaction for plasma Vitamin D, E and B12 and a significant (P < 0.001) species by month by Vitamin D interaction for plasma phosphorus concentrations. In general, plasma calcium concentrations were greater in sheep than in alpacas but plasma magnesium concentrations were greater in alpacas than in sheep. There was no consistent difference between the two species in plasma phosphorus concentrations although low values were recorded in individual sheep and alpacas. Plasma Vitamin D concentrations were more responsive to increasing hours of sunlight in alpacas than they were in sheep. Sheep had consistently higher concentrations of plasma copper, zinc and Vitamin B12 and higher concentrations of blood selenium but lower concentrations of plasma selenium and Vitamin A, than did alpacas. No consistent difference was observed between the two species in plasma Vitamin E concentrations.

The effect of humidity and temperature on Wool Comfort Meter assessment of single jersey wool fabrics

The Wool ComfortMeter provides an objective measurement of the fabric-evoked prickle discomfort rating provided by wearers. This work aimed to quantify the sensitivity of the Wool ComfortMeter over a range of different temperature and humidity conditions to determine the recommended test conditions for its operation. The design was: three temperatures (notionally 20, 25 and 30°C) at three relative humidities (RHs, notionally 50, 65 and 80%) each with two replicates, using six different wool single jersey knits (mean fibre diameter 19.5–27.0 µm). As it was difficult to achieve exactly some of the extreme combinations of temperature and RH, some combinations were repeated, providing a total of 23 different assessment conditions. Data were analysed using restricted maximum likelihood mixed model analysis. The best fixed model included RH, RH2, temperature and the interaction of temperature and RH, accounting for 95% of the variation in Wool ComfortMeter readings. Wool ComfortMeter values were almost constant at 55–60% RH. Generally, the Wool ComfortMeter value reduced with increasing RH > 60% at temperatures of 25°C and 28.5°C as the regain of the fabric increased. However, at 20°C little change was detected as RH was increased from 50 to 80% as there were only small changes in fabric regain. The observed effects were in a good agreement with existing knowledge on the effect of regain on the mechanical properties of wool fibre. Wool ComfortMeter is best operated under standard conditions for textile testing of 65% RH and 20°C.

Production, properties and processing of American bison (Bison bison) wool grown in southern Australia

American bison grow a thick coat of fibres which assists them to withstand severe climatic conditions. Bison fibre was traditionally used in textiles by native North Americans. This study aimed to quantify the production, fibre attributes and dehairing processing of bison fibre produced from bison grazed in north-eastern Victoria. Three age/sex classes were sampled (n = 16) at seven body positions in spring. The fibre growing area was measured. Fibre was tested for diameter distribution, clean washing yield, proportion of fine fibres <36µm and fine fibre length, and processed by cashmere dehairing. Bison were 12 years of age, liveweights 160450 kg and had mean fibre growing area of 1.4 m². They produced an average 1184 g (range 5301640 g) of fine fibre with mean fibre diameter 18.5µm, clean washing yield 76.5%, wax content 9.8%, suint content 14.5%, clean fine fibre yield 56.4%, fine fibre length 37 mm and fibre curvature was 93/mm. Mid-side fibre had a crimp frequency of 6.5/cm and mean resistance to compression of 6.6 kPa. Fibre had a tenacity of 8.7 cN/tex and an extension of 39.3%. Restricted maximum likelihood mixed model analysis showed age/sex class and sampling site significantly affected all fibre attributes. Finer and longer fibre was produced in anterior sites and in younger bison. Fibre curvature declined 5.3°/mm for each 1-µm increase in mean fibre diameter. Dehaired fibre had a mean fibre diameter of 17.8 µm and mid-length of 28 mm, suitable for woollen spinning. The production by bison of coats containing significant amounts of fibre indicates that careful harvesting of fibre could form an important source of income in bison enterprises.