Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.

The benefits of not managing change and not communicating : towards a complex systems view of communication in evolving organisations

The relationship between change in organisations and communication about change in organisations can be analysed as a particular case of a general debate in social theory about the extent to which reality is socially constructed. Social constructivists emphasise the role of language in the construction of social realities, enacted through controlling the message agenda; material determinists assert that economic and social structural factors are more constitutive of reality as seen in strategies emphasising structural and resource interventions. Here we define a third view of language and materiality - one that leads to the potential for a reflexive, experimental approach to change based on the view that organisations are complex evolving systems.

Influence of culture conditions on the molecular signature of mesenchymal stem cells

Cell based therapies require cells capable of self renewal and differentiation, and a prerequisite is the ability to prepare an effective dose of ex vivo expanded cells for autologous transplants. The in vivo identification of a source of physiologically relevant cell types suitable for cell therapies is therefore an integral part of tissue engineering. Bone marrow is the most easily accessible source of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), and harbours two distinct populations of adult stem cells; namely hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and bone mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). Unlike HSCs, there are yet no rigorous criteria for characterizing BMSCs. Changing understanding about the pluripotency of BMSCs in recent studies has expanded their potential application; however, the underlying molecular pathways which impart the features distinctive to BMSCs remain elusive. Furthermore, the sparse in vivo distribution of these cells imposes a clear limitation to their in vitro study. Also, when BMSCs are cultured in vitro there is a loss of the in vivo microenvironment which results in a progressive decline in proliferation potential and multipotentiality. This is further exacerbated with increased passage number, characterized by the onset of senescence related changes. Accordingly, establishing protocols for generating large numbers of BMSCs without affecting their differentiation potential is necessary. The principal aims of this thesis were to identify potential molecular factors for characterizing BMSCs from osteoarthritic patients, and also to attempt to establish culture protocols favourable for generating large number of BMSCs, while at the same time retaining their proliferation and differentiation potential. Previously published studies concerning clonal cells have demonstrated that BMSCs are heterogeneous populations of cells at various stages of growth. Some cells are higher in the hierarchy and represent the progenitors, while other cells occupy a lower position in the hierarchy and are therefore more committed to a particular lineage. This feature of BMSCs was made evident by the work of Mareddy et al., which involved generating clonal populations of BMSCs from bone marrow of osteoarthritic patients, by a single cell clonal culture method. Proliferation potential and differentiation capabilities were used to group cells into fast growing and slow growing clones. The study presented here is a continuation of the work of Mareddy et al. and employed immunological and array based techniques to identify the primary molecular factors involved in regulating phenotypic characteristics exhibited by contrasting clonal populations. The subtractive immunization (SI) was used to generate novel antibodies against favourably expressed proteins in the fast growing clonal cell population. The difference between the clonal populations at the transcriptional level was determined using a Stem Cell RT2 Profiler TM PCR Array which focuses on stem cell pathway gene expression. Monoclonal antibodies (mAb) generated by SI were able to effectively highlight differentially expressed antigenic determinants, as was evident by Western blot analysis and confocal microscopy. Co-immunoprecipitation, followed by mass spectroscopy analysis, identified a favourably expressed protein as the cytoskeletal protein vimentin. The stem cell gene array highlighted genes that were highly upregulated in the fast growing clonal cell population. Based on their functions these genes were grouped into growth factors, cell fate determination and maintenance of embryonic and neural stem cell renewal. Furthermore, on a closer analysis it was established that the cytoskeletal protein vimentin and nine out of ten genes identified by gene array were associated with chondrogenesis or cartilage repair, consistent with the potential role played by BMSCs in defect repair and maintaining tissue homeostasis, by modulating the gene expression pattern to compensate for degenerated cartilage in osteoarthritic tissues. The gene array also presented transcripts for embryonic lineage markers such as FOXA2 and Sox2, both of which were significantly over expressed in fast growing clonal populations. A recent groundbreaking study by Yamanaka et al imparted embryonic stem cell (ESCs) -like characteristic to somatic cells in a process termed nuclear reprogramming, by the ectopic expression of the genes Sox2, cMyc and Oct4. The expression of embryonic lineage markers in adult stem cells may be a mechanism by which the favourable behaviour of fast growing clonal cells is determined and suggests a possible active phenomenon of spontaneous reprogramming in fast growing clonal cells. The expression pattern of these critical molecular markers could be indicative of the competence of BMSCs. For this reason, the expression pattern of Sox2, Oct4 and cMyc, at various passages in heterogeneous BMSCs population and tissue derived cells (osteoblasts and chondrocytes), was investigated by a real-time PCR and immunoflourescence staining. A strong nuclear staining was observed for Sox2, Oct4 and cMyc, which gradually weakened accompanied with cytoplasmic translocation after several passage. The mRNA and protein expression of Sox2, Oct4 and cMyc peaked at the third passage for osteoblasts, chondrocytes and third passage for BMSCs, and declined with each subsequent passage, indicating towards a possible mechanism of spontaneous reprogramming. This study proposes that the progressive decline in proliferation potential and multipotentiality associated with increased passaging of BMSCs in vitro might be a consequence of loss of these propluripotency factors. We therefore hypothesise that the expression of these master genes is not an intrinsic cell function, but rather an outcome of interaction of the cells with their microenvironment; this was evident by the fact that when removed from their in vivo microenvironment, BMSCs undergo a rapid loss of stemness after only a few passages. One of the most interesting aspects of this study was the integration of factors in the culture conditions, which to some extent, mimicked the in vivo microenvironmental niche of the BMSCs. A number of studies have successfully established that the cellular niche is not an inert tissue component but is of prime importance. The total sum of stimuli from the microenvironment underpins the complex interplay of regulatory mechanisms which control multiple functions in stem cells most importantly stem cell renewal. Therefore, well characterised factors which affect BMSCs characteristics, such as fibronectin (FN) coating, and morphogens such as FGF2 and BMP4, were incorporated into the cell culture conditions. The experimental set up was designed to provide insight into the expression pattern of the stem cell related transcription factors Sox2, cMyc and Oct4, in BMSCs with respect to passaging and changes in culture conditions. Induction of these pluripotency markers in somatic cells by retroviral transfection has been shown to confer pluripotency and an ESCs like state. Our study demonstrated that all treatments could transiently induce the expression of Sox2, cMyc and Oct4, and favourably affect the proliferation potential of BMSCs. The combined effect of these treatments was able to induce and retain the endogenous nuclear expression of stem cell transcription factors in BMSCs over an extended number of in vitro passages. Our results therefore suggest that the transient induction and manipulation of endogenous expression of transcription factors critical for stemness can be achieved by modulating the culture conditions; the benefit of which is to circumvent the need for genetic manipulations. In summary, this study has explored the role of BMSCs in the diseased state of osteoarthritis, by employing transcriptional profiling along with SI. In particular this study pioneered the use of primary cells for generating novel antibodies by SI. We established that somatic cells and BMSCs have a basal level of expression of pluripotency markers. Furthermore, our study indicates that intrinsic signalling mechanisms of BMSCs are intimately linked with extrinsic cues from the microenvironment and that these signals appear to be critical for retaining the expression of genes to maintain cell stemness in long term in vitro culture. This project provides a basis for developing an “artificial niche” required for reversion of commitment and maintenance of BMSC in their uncommitted homeostatic state.

Schooling and refugees : engaging with the complex trajectories of globalisation

This paper examines the complexities associated with educating a mobile and politically marginalised population, refugee students, in the state of Queensland, Australia. Historically, schools have been national institutions concerned with social reproduction and citizenship formation with a focus on spatially fixed populations. While education authorities in much of the developed world now acknowledge the need to prepare students for a more interconnected world of work and opportunity, they have largely failed to provide systemic support for one category of children on the move - refugees. We begin this paper with a discussion of forced migration and its links with ‘globalisation’. We then present our research findings about the educational challenges confronting individual refugee youth and schools in Queensland. This is followed with a summary of good practice in refugee education. The paper concludes with a discussion of how nation-states might play a more active role in facilitating transitions to citizenship for refugee youth.

Stochastic simulation of chemical reactions in spatially complex media

Discrete stochastic simulations, via techniques such as the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are low numbers of certain molecular species. However, an important constraint is the assumption of well-mixedness and homogeneity. In this paper, we show how to use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate an anomalous diffusion parameter that encapsulates the crowdedness of the spatial environment. We then use this parameter to replace the rate constants of bimolecular reactions by a time-dependent power law to produce an SSA valid in cases where anomalous diffusion occurs or the system is not well-mixed (ASSA). Simulations then show that ASSA can successfully predict the temporal dynamics of chemical kinetics in a spatially constrained environment.

Using complex network metrics to predict the persistence of metapopulations with asymmetric connectivity patterns

Almost all metapopulation modelling assumes that connectivity between patches is only a function of distance, and is therefore symmetric. However, connectivity will not depend only on the distance between the patches, as some paths are easy to traverse, while others are difficult. When colonising organisms interact with the heterogeneous landscape between patches, connectivity patterns will invariably be asymmetric. There have been few attempts to theoretically assess the effects of asymmetric connectivity patterns on the dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we use the framework of complex networks to investigate whether metapopulation dynamics can be determined by directly analysing the asymmetric connectivity patterns that link the patches. Our analyses focus on “patch occupancy” metapopulation models, which only consider whether a patch is occupied or not. We propose three easily calculated network metrics: the “asymmetry” and “average path strength” of the connectivity pattern, and the “centrality” of each patch. Together, these metrics can be used to predict the length of time a metapopulation is expected to persist, and the relative contribution of each patch to a metapopulation’s viability. Our results clearly demonstrate the negative effect that asymmetry has on metapopulation persistence. Complex network analyses represent a useful new tool for understanding the dynamics of species existing in fragmented landscapes, particularly those existing in large metapopulations.

Using participatory action research in a community-based initiative addressing complex mental health needs

Objective: This paper describes the first phase of a larger project that utilizes participatory action research to examine complex mental health needs across an extensive group of stakeholders in the community. Method: Within an objective qualitative analysis of focus group discussions the social ecological model is utilized to explore how integrative activities can be informed, planned and implemented across multiple elements and levels of a system. Seventy-one primary care workers, managers, policy-makers, consumers and carers from across the southern metropolitan and Gippsland regions of Victoria, Australia took part in seven focus groups. All groups responded to an identical set of focusing questions. Results: Participants produced an explanatory model describing the service system, as it relates to people with complex needs, across the levels of social ecological analysis. Qualitative themes analysis identified four priority areas to be addressed in order to improve the system's capacity for working with complexity. These included: (i) system fragmentation; (ii) integrative case management practices; (iii) community attitudes; and (iv) money and resources. Conclusions: The emergent themes provide clues as to how complexity is constructed and interpreted across the system of involved agencies and interest groups. The implications these findings have for the development and evaluation of this community capacity-building project were examined from the perspective of constructing interventions that address both top-down and bottom-up processes.

The contribution of leadership attributes to large scale, complex project success

Mismanagement of large-scale, complex projects has resulted in spectacular failures, cost overruns, time blowouts, and stakeholder dissatisfaction. We focus discussion on the interaction of key management and leadership attributes which facilitate leaders’ adaptive behaviors. These behaviors should in turn influence adaptive team member behavior, stakeholder engagement and successful project outcomes, outputs and impacts. An understanding of this type of management will benefit from a perspective based in managerial and organizational cognition. The research question we explore is whether successful leaders of large-scale complex projects have an internal process leading to a display of administrative, adaptive, and enabling behaviors that foster adaptive processes and enabling behaviors within their teams and with external stakeholders. At the core of the model we propose interactions of key attributes, namely cognitive flexibility, affect, and emotional intelligence. The result of these cognitive-affective attribute interactions is leadership leading to enhanced likelihood of complex project success.

Re-thinking how we plan to address technically complex problems : drawing on planning theory to guide practice in revision of land use plans in coastal high hazard zones

Queensland's new State Planning Policy for Coastal Protection, released in March and approved in April 2011 as part of the Queensland Coastal Plan, stipulates that local governments prepare and implement adaptation strategies for built up areas projected to be subject to coastal hazards between present day and 2100. Urban localities within the delineated coastal high hazard zone (as determined by models incorporating a 0.8 meter rise in sea level and a 10% increase in the maximum cyclone activity) will be required to re-evaluate their plans to accommodate growth, revising land use plans to minimise impacts of anticipated erosion and flooding on developed areas and infrastructure. While implementation of such strategies would aid in avoidance or minimisation of risk exposure, communities are likely to face significant challenges in such implementation, especially as development in Queensland is so intensely focussed upon its coasts with these new policies directing development away from highly desirable waterfront land. This paper examines models of planning theory to understand how we plan when faced with technically complex problems towards formulation of a framework for evaluating and improving practice.

An actor-network research frame for analysing complex socio-technical situations

This paper presents a “research frame” which we have found useful in analyzing complex socio- technical situations. The research frame is based on aspects of actor-network theory: “interressment”, “enrollment”, “points of passage” and the “trial of strength”. Each of these aspects are described in turn, making clear their purpose in the overall research frame. Having established the research frame it is used to analyse two examples. First, the use of speech recognition technology is examined in two different contexts, showing how to apply the frame to compare and contrast current situations. Next, a current medical consultation context is described and the research frame is used to consider how it could change with innovative technology. In both examples, the research frame shows that the use of an artefact or technology must be considered together with the context in which it is used.

Ageing and use of complex product interfaces

This paper presents an experiment designed to investigate if redundancy in an interface has any impact on the use of complex interfaces by older people and people with low prior-experience with technology. The important findings of this study were that older people (65+ years) completed the tasks on the Words only based interface faster than on Redundant (text and symbols) interface. The rest of the participants completed tasks significantly faster on the Redundant interface. From a cognitive processing perspective, sustained attention (one of the functions of Central Executive) has emerged as one of the important factors in completing tasks on complex interfaces faster and with fewer of errors.