Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper, we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial property markets. The investigation is based on interview surveys with the majority of UK forecast producers, who are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self‐censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in‐house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is significantly more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling, forecasts are mediated and contested within organisations and that impacts can vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Hospital catering systems and their impact on the sensorial profile of foods provided to older patients in the UK

Impaired sensorial perception is very common in older people and low sensorial quality of foods is associated with decreased appetite and dietary intake. Hospital undernutrition in older patients could be linked to sensorial quality of hospital food if the quality were low or inappropriate for older people. The aim of this study was to examine changes in the sensorial quality of different foods that occur as a result of the food journey (i.e. freezing, regeneration, etc.) in the most common hospital catering systems in the UK. A trained sensory panel assessed sensorial descriptors of certain foods with and without the hospital food journey as it occurs in the in-house and cook/freeze systems. The results showed effects of the food journey on a small number of sensorial descriptors related to flavour, appearance and mouthfeel. The majority of these effects were due to temperature changes, which caused accumulation of condensation. A daily variation in sensorial descriptors was also detected and in some cases it was greater than the effect of the food journey. This study has shown that changes occur in the sensory quality of meals due to hospital food journeys, however these changes were small and are not expected to substantially contribute to acceptability or have a major role in hospital malnutrition.

Evaluation of diagnostic molecular markers for DUS phenotypic assessment in the cereal crop, barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare L.)

The deployment of genetic markers is of interest in crop assessment and breeding programmes, due to the potential savings in cost and time afforded. As part of the internationally recognised framework for the awarding of Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBR), new barley variety submissions are evaluated using a suite of morphological traits to ensure they are distinct, uniform and stable (DUS) in comparison to all previous submissions. Increasing knowledge of the genetic control of many of these traits provides the opportunity to assess the potential of deploying diagnostic/perfect genetic markers in place of phenotypic assessment. Here, we identify a suite of 25 genetic markers assaying for 14 DUS traits, and implement them using a single genotyping platform (KASPar). Using a panel of 169 UK barley varieties, we show that phenotypic state at three of these traits can be perfectly predicted by genotype. Predictive values for an additional nine traits ranged from 81 to 99 %. Finally, by comparison of varietal discrimination based on phenotype and genotype resulted in correlation of 0.72, indicating that deployment of molecular markers for varietal discrimination could be feasible in the near future. Due to the flexibility of the genotyping platform used, the genetic markers described here can be used in any number or combination, in-house or by outsourcing, allowing flexible deployment by users. These markers are likely to find application where tracking of specific alleles is required in breeding programmes, or for potential use within national assessment programmes for the awarding of PBRs.

The current status of anticoagulant resistance in rats and mice in the UK

Introduction: Resistance to anticoagulants in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) and house mice (Mus domesticus) has been studied in the UK since the early 1960s. In no other country in the world is our understanding of resistance phenomena so extensive and profound. Almost every aspect of resistance in the key rodent target species has been examined in laboratory and field trials and results obtained by independent researchers have been published. It is the principal purpose of this document to present a short synopsis of this information. More recently, however, the development of genetical techniques has provided a definitive means of detection of resistant genotypes among pest rodent populations. Preliminary information from a number of such surveys will also be presented. Resistance in Norway rats: A total of nine different anticoagulant resistance mutations (single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs) are found among Norway rats in the UK. In no other country worldwide are present so many different forms of Norway rat resistance. Among these nine SNPs, five are known to confer on rats that carry them a significant degree of resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides. These mutations are: L128Q, Y139S, L120Q, Y139C and Y139F. The latter three mutations confer, to varying degrees, practical resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, the two second-generation anticoagulants in predominant use in the UK. It is the recommendation of RRAG that bromadiolone and difenacoum should not be used against rats carrying the L120Q, Y139C and Y139F mutations because this will promote the spread of resistance and jeopardise the long-term efficacy of anticoagulants. Brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against these three genotypes but cannot presently be used because of the regulatory restriction that they can only be applied against rats that are living and feeding predominantly indoors. Our understanding of the geographical distribution of Norway rat resistance in incomplete but is rapidly increasing. In particular, the mapping of the focus of L120Q Norway rat resistance in central-southern England by DNA sequencing is well advanced. We now know that rats carrying this resistance mutation are present across a large part of the counties of Hampshire, Berkshire and Wiltshire, and the resistance spreads into Avon, Oxfordshire and Surrey. It is also found, perhaps as outlier foci, in south-west Scotland and East Sussex. L120Q is currently the most severe form of anticoagulant resistance found in Norway rats and is prevalent over a considerable part of central-southern England. A second form of advanced Norway rat resistance is conferred by the Y139C mutation. This is noteworthy because it occurs in at least four different foci that are widely geographically dispersed, namely in Dumfries and Galloway, Gloucestershire, Yorkshire and Norfolk. Once again, bromadiolone and difenacoum are not recommended for use against rats carrying this genotype and a concern of RRAG is that continued applications of resisted active substances may result in Y139C becoming more or less ubiquitous across much of the UK. Another type of advanced resistance, the Y139F mutation, is present in Kent and Sussex. This means that Norway rats, carrying some degree of resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, are now found from the south coast of Kent, west into the city of Bristol, to Yorkshire in the north-east and to the south-west of Scotland. This difficult situation can only deteriorate further where these three genotypes exist and resisted anticoagulants are predominantly used against them. Resistance in house mice: House mouse is not so well understood but the presence in the UK of two resistant genotypes, L128S and Y139C, is confirmed. House mice are naturally tolerant to anticoagulants and such is the nature of this tolerance, and the presence of genetical resistance, that house mice resistant to the first-generation anticoagulants are considered to be widespread in the UK. Consequently, baits containing warfarin, sodium warfarin, chlorophacinone and coumatetralyl are not approved for use against mice. This regulatory position is endorsed by RRAG. Baits containing brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against house mice and may be applied in practice because house mouse infestations are predominantly indoors. There are some reports of resistance among mice in some areas to the second-generation anticoagulant bromadiolone, while difenacoum remains largely efficacious. Alternatives to anticoagulants: The use of habitat manipulation, that is the removal of harbourage, denial of the availability of food and the prevention of ingress to structures, is an essential component of sustainable rodent pest management. All are of importance in the management of resistant rodents and have the advantage of not selecting for resistant genotypes. The use of these techniques may be particularly valuable in preventing the build-up of rat infestations. However, none can be used to remove any sizeable extant rat infestation and for practical reasons their use against house mice is problematic. Few alternative chemical interventions are available in the European Union because of the removal from the market of zinc phosphide, calciferol and bromethalin. Our virtual complete reliance on the use of anticoagulants for the chemical control of rodents in the UK, and more widely in the EU, calls for improved schemes for resistance management. Of course, these might involve the use of alternatives to anticoagulant rodenticides. Also important is an increasing knowledge of the distribution of resistance mutations in rats and mice and the use of only fully effective anticoagulants against them.

The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro area

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that the housing market in one country is then important when its mortgage market is well developed. The countries in the euro area follow unitary monetary policy, however, their housing and mortgage markets show some heterogeneity, which may lead to different policy effects on aggregate consumption through the housing market. Design/methodology/approach – The housing market can act as a channel of monetary policy shocks to household consumption through changes in house prices and residential investment – the housing market channel. We estimate vector autoregressive models for each country and conduct a counterfactual analysis in order to disentangle the housing market channel and assess its importance across the euro area member states. Findings – We find little evidence for heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission through house prices across the euro area countries. Housing market variations in the euro area seem to be better captured by changes in residential investment rather than by changes in house prices. As a result we do not find significantly large house price channels. For some of the countries however, we observe a monetary policy channel through residential investment. The existence of a housing channel may depend on institutional features of both the labour market or with institutional factors capturing the degree of household debt as is the LTV ratio. Originality/value – The study contributes to the existing literature by assessing whether a unitary monetary policy has a different impact on consumption across the euro area countries through their housing and mortgage markets. We disentangle monetary-policy-induced effects on consumption associated with variations on the housing markets due to either house price variations or residential investment changes. We show that the housing market can play a role in the monetary transmission mechanism even in countries with less developed mortgage markets through variations in residential investment.

A Comparative Study of the Frequency of Antibody and Titers Against Human Herpesvirus 8 Latent and Lytic Antigens in ""At-Risk"" Individuals and Among Patients With Kaposi`s Sarcoma

Differences in the prevalence of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) and Kaposi`s sarcoma (KS) have been described, depending on the study population and their geographic origin. A cross-sectional study aimed at detecting the frequency and titers of antibodies against HHV-8 latent and lytic antigens in serum samples from individuals with different risk-factors for HHV-8 infection, as well as predictive marker identification in patients with KS, was conducted. Serum samples were collected from seven groups of individuals: 75 patients with AIDS-KS, 5 with classic KS, 16 with African KS, 495 with HIV/AIDS, 805 patients with chronic kidney disease, 683 handicapped individuals, and 757 health care workers. Samples were evaluated for the presence and titers of HHV-8-specific antibodies to latent and lytic antigens using ""in house"" immunofluorescence assays. The results were analyzed by the Chi-square, Fisher`s exact test, Kruskal-Wallis and/or Mann-Whitney U-tests. The frequencies of HHV-8 antibodies were as follows: 87.5-100% in patients with KS, 20.4% in patients with HIV/AIDS, 18% in patients with chronic kidney disease, 1.6% in handicapped individuals, and 1.1% in health care workers. A greater number of samples were antibody positive to lytic antigens. Elevated titers of antibodies to latent and lytic antigens, mostly among patients with KS, were detected. Using established serological assays, different ""at-risk"" populations for HHV-8 infection/disease were detected in this geographic area, confirming HIV/AIDS and identifying patients with chronic kidney disease as high-risk groups. It is suggested that a longitudinal evaluation of antibody titers in patients with chronic kidney disease be undertaken to confirm their predictive value in the development of KS. J. Med. Virol. 81: 1292-1297, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

In vitro basal cytotoxicity assay applied to estimate acute oral systemic toxicity of grandisin and its major metabolite

Preclinical investigations can start with preliminary in vitro studies before using animal models. Following this approach, the number of animals used in preclinical acute toxicity testing can be reduced. In this study, we employed an in-house validated in vitro cytotoxicity test based on the Spielmann approach for toxicity evaluation of the lignan grandisin, a candidate anticancer agent, and its major metabolite. the 4-O-demethylgrandisin, by neutral red uptake (NRU) assay, on mouse fibroblasts Balb/c 3T3 cell line. Using different concentrations of grandisin and its major metabolite (2.31; 1.16; 0.58; 0.29; 0.14; 0.07; 0.04; 0.002 mu M) in Balb/c 3T3-A31 NRU cytotoxicity assay, after incubation for 48 h, we obtained IC(50) values for grandisin and its metabolite of 0.078 and 0.043 mu M, respectively. The computed LD(50) of grandisin and 4-O-demethylgrandisin were 617.72 and 429.95 mg/kg, respectively. Both were classified under the Globally Harmonized System as category 4. Since pharmacological and toxicological data are crucial in the developmental stages of drug discovery, using an in vitro assay we demonstrated that grandisin and its metabolite exhibit distinct toxicity profiles. Furthermore, results presented in this work can contribute to reduce the number of animals required in subsequent pharmacological/toxicological studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Minimising risks in IT outsourcing: choosing target services

This paper provides a risk-based framework for deciding on which IT services to outsource and which to keep in-house. This framework considers the probabilities both of negative outcomes, and of failing to achieve positive outcomes. The authors examine the major components of outsourcing risk and their drivers, and from this derive a series of questions decision-makers can ask when deciding what sourcing options to adopt for different services. The framework was developed on the basis of five years of qualitative and quantitative research into the experiences of organizations involved in outsourcing IT.

Conservation management and diets of Powerful Owls (Ninox strenua) in outer urban Melbourne, Australia

The Powerful Owl Ninox strenua is Australia’s largest owl, and is mainly found east of the Great Dividing Range on the mainland in tall-open forests. The species is considered rare, both nationally and in the State of Victoria; and threatened in the Greater Melbourne area. Recovery plans for the future conservation management of N. strenua are being prepared in 2 states.

Historically, Powerful Owls have been thought to require large homes ranges (about 1000 ha per pair) in suitable old-growth forest, which provides nest hollows for the owls and their arboreal marsupial prey. Recent research, however, has found N. strenua may be more numerous and breed more successfully in a wider range of habitats than previously believed. In particular, the birds have been found living in forests and woodlands within the greater metropolitan areas of cities. The most extreme case is where a nest tree has been found within 800m of urban settlement and 6km from the centre of Brisbane.

In this paper we report on the diet, habitat use, and conservation management by a number of breeding pairs of owls in outer urban Melbourne. Study sites range from a relatively undisturbed rainforest habitat 80km from central Melbourne, through dry sclerophyll, eucalyptus-dominated open forest with some disturbance to a site 8km from central Melbourne in highly disturbed urban parkland.

Diets of the families of owls were determined by analyzing remains in regurgitated pellets. The data confirm that arboreal marsupials constitute the major prey items, especially the Common Ringtail Possum Pseudocheirus peregrinus. There were differences in diets depending on the availability of prey species, which suggest a level of opportunism not previously suspected. Our study is also the first to confirm the owls capture adult Common Brushtail Possums Trichosurus vulpecula (15% of pellets containing the remains of this large opossum have bones of mature adults at 1 site) and thus take prey up to two and a half times their own weight. As well our data suggest Powerful Owls are not restricted to hollow-dwelling prey, as in some sites the marsupials rested during the day either in leafy nests called dreys (P. peregrinus) or in house roofs (T. vulpecula).

In the most heavily disturbed sites, breeding success has been reduced, and we have evidence that in one particular year the young were eaten by one of the parents. This followed construction of a bicycle track under the nest during the breeding season. Recommendations are made for the future conservation and habitat management of Powerful Owls in the Yarra Valley corridor.

Challenges facing housing affordability in Beijing in the Twenty-first century

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is analyse to what extent the high price had led to low levels of housing affordability in the period 2002-2006 in Beijing. Due to the importance of housing for local residents and the crucial position that real estate market in the Chinese economy is currently in, research into the housing affordability issues is now essential. It is important to consider the social circumstances that are predominantly related to both the standard of living and the national economy in Beijing.

Design/methodology/approach – The housing price to income ratio (PIR) method and Housing Affordability Index (HAI) model are used to measure housing affordability in Beijing. Then, the reasons for the high housing prices in Beijing are discussed and government homeownership-oriented policies to help citizen on housing issues are examined. Finally, future proposals which can contribute to ease the housing affordability problem are recommended.

Findings – The main findings in this research are that the PIR in the Beijing housing market (based on an average gross floor area of 60?m2) fluctuated between 6.69 and 9.12, respectively, between 2002 and 2006. Over the same period, the HAI was approximately 75 between 2002 and 2004, although decreasing sharply in 2005 (65.78) and 2006 (51.33). It appears that the Chinese government's new housing provision policies may be able to ease this affordability problem, especially with regards to the economic housing scheme.

Originality/value – China has experienced rapid growth in gross domestic product (GDP) with a substantial increase in house prices which have affected housing affordability for typical Beijing households. Since the housing reform in China commenced in 1998, Beijing residents, government officers and academics have been concerned about high housing prices in the city, which is considered beyond the buying capability of the ordinary residents. The results are designed to provide an insight into the level of housing affordability in Beijing and whether a trend exists.

Occupational health provision in UK universities

Background Very few studies have been done of occupational health provision across an entire employment sector and universities are particularly understudied. The British government published updated guidance on university occupational health in 2006.

Aim To describe the occupational health services to all the universities in the UK.

Methods All 117 universities in the UK were included. Detailed surveys were carried out in 2002, 2003 and 2004 requesting self-completed information from each university occupational health service. This paper presents information on general characteristics of the service, staffing, services provided and outcome reporting.

Results There was variation in the type of occupational health provision; half the universities had an in-house occupational health service, 32% used a contractor, 9% relied on the campus primary care or student health service and 9% had ad hoc or no arrangements. In all, 93 of the 117 (79%) universities responded to the detailed questionnaire, the response rate being higher from in-house services and from larger universities. There was a wide variation in staffing levels but the average service was small, staffed by one full-time nurse with one half-day of doctor time per week and a part-time clerical or administrative member of staff. A range of services was provided but, again, there was wide variation between universities.

Conclusions It is unclear if the occupational health provision to universities is proportional to their needs. The wide variation suggests that some universities may have less adequate services than others.

Occupational health services in higher education : second annual report : summary

The second of three surveys of occupational health provision in UK higher education institutions was carried out in March 2003.

Information was collected on occupational health provision arrangements for all 193 members of UUK, other HEIs funded by HEFCE, constituent parts of the University of London and the University of Wales, and degree awarding bodies in the UK. There was a wide variety of arrangements. Thirty-eight percent had in-house services, 33% contracted with external providers for occupational health services, 13% made use of a local general practice or student health service, 6% had other or ad hoc arrangements and 9% had no occupational health service.

Understanding residential house prices : examining the contribution of social area analysis

A complete understanding of residential housing markets, particularly in relation to variations in house prices both within and between suburbs, continues to present challenges to property researchers and forecasters. Factors affecting changes in housing demand are not yet completely understood, and accordingly market changes cannot always be confidently predicted. Most urban cities contain precincts that have high or low house values at the same time, regardless of characteristics such as distance to the city centre, location of transport or topography. Exactly why these variations in suburb values occur is often unclear, although local residents are able to easily identify differences between the status of each suburb, especially when one area is clearly perceived as superior to another. Consequently, houses in premium suburbs are sold for substantially more than houses in other areas, primarily due to this perceived higher demand. An understanding of reasons behind varying levels of buyer demand has always been difficult to fully encapsulate in housing studies, even though clear links have been observed between housing affordability and the type of inhabitant that would live in a particular area. This study confirms that traditional economic indicators can not always observe the degree of purchaser and vendor willingness in the residential property market, as per the International Valuation Standards Committee definition of market value, and substantial consideration must also be given to characteristics of individual buyers and sellers within the marketplace. No longer can the focus be narrowly focussed just on endogenous factors such as interest rates and inflation levels.
Accordingly, this research draws the disciplines of demography and housing research closer together and looks to social indicators for an insight into the level of house prices. To establish this link, a two-stage process is adopted where social area analysis initially identifies the characteristics of suburbs within an urban area. This information is then used to examine variations in suburb values, resulting in a clearer understanding of the relationship between demographic variables and house prices. This research analysed changes in the value of established residential house prices in Melbourne, Australia as well as the relationship with social structure. The added dimension of time highlighted change, with data drawn from 1996 and 2001. The results confirmed the existence of strong linkages between social constructs and established house prices. Whilst acknowledging that the overall level of house values is influenced by external economic and political factors, differences between suburb values can be explained by demographic variables. The results confirm that increased emphasis must be placed upon demography when seeking to understand variations in residential property values between urban areas.

Provision of meals on wheels to the elderly : case studies in the era of local government reform

Australia’s ageing population is on the increase. It is predicted that by 2021 one quarter of Victoria’s elderly population will be aged 60 and over. Not only are people living longer, but they also wish to remain living in the community. The Home and Community Care (HACC) Program was established in 1985 to facilitate and assist the elderly and disabled to remain in their home. In Victoria around 51% of HACC funds are managed by local governments, a level of government that has recently undergone major reforms, which ultimately impacted on the manner in which services were provided. The HACC program funds Meals on Wheels, a service that provides meals for those elderly who no longer can prepare their own meals. The aim of this study was to assess the Meals on Wheels service provided by two Melbourne councils with different service philosophies. The study has four main components: (1) Menu analysis by food and variety; (2) Analysis of actual meals; (3) Clients assessment of Food Services; and (4) Client assessment of the organoleptic qualities of Meals on Wheels. Two Melbourne councils were chosen for their different approaches to service delivery. The City of South tendered out both meal production and delivery, while the City of North maintained its MOW service in-house. The case study method of research allowed for each council’s service to be assessed objectively and without comparison. Several methodologies were used for collecting data in this study. Menu analysis was carried out by comparing the MOW menus with the HACC menu planning guidelines together with general menu planning principles. Analysis of actual meals was in two stages. The weights of the meals were recorded and compared with the HACC recommended food serving portions and meal combinations over a five-day period were analysed for their nutrient contents. Face to face interviews were conducted with clients for their assessment of MOW and the assessment of the organoleptic qualities of the meals was carried out over a five-day period. The results concluded that both councils menus were based on sound menu planning principles, but did not conform with Home and Community Care menu planning guidelines fully and did not include a serve of bread, fruit and milk. The weight analysis of the meal combinations revealed some discrepancies between actual meals and Home and Community Care guidelines by not meeting the recommended serving sizes. Meal combinations generally met Home and Community Care standard for kilojoule and protein, but other nutrients, such as thiamin, riboflavin, magnesium, calcium and zinc were generally below the recommended levels for Meals On Wheels. The majority of study group lived alone and received four to five meals per week. Delivery times of meals, selective menus and food quality were issues raised by clients. Whilst the quality and variety of vegetables was raised by clients they generally rated the organoleptic qualities of the meals as satisfactory. This study examined the four components of the service. A simple method of evaluation the service was developed, which highlight discrepancies with HACC standards and encouraged the councils to set a customer satisfaction standard. A number of recommendations are made to ensure that meals are aesthetically pleasing, including a list of different methods for preparing vegetables. The provision of additional foods, such as a “snack pack” is recommended to improve the supply of essential nutrients that were below the Home and Community Care standards. Meals on Wheels is a vital support service for the elderly living in the community and as such should aim to provide a high quality service that meets the needs of its clients.