Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Women are people too : the problem of designing for gender

Cultural theory breaks with Modern analysis by rejecting traditional notions of race, gender, class and sexuality. In doing so, alternative frameworks such as Post-Feminism emerge which are useful for thinking about culture, technology and what our interactions with it mean. From a Post-Feminist perspective it can be seen how in our multi-cultural, post-industrial, digitized world, there is space to move beyond traditional ways of dividing up society such as ‘male’ and ‘female’. We are then free to re-construct our identity in light of a rich diversity of individually relevant experiences. Therefore, in order to get a better understanding of the highly nuanced cultural interactions that characterize our use of technology, this paper argues against using the inherently stereotyped lens of gender and allowing a new set of user needs to emerge.

Petri net modeling of spatial and temporal constraints in track allocation problem at railway stations

The track allocation problem (TAP) at a multi-track, multi-platform mainline railway station is defined by the station track layout and service timetable, which implies combinations of spatial and temporal conflicts. Feasible solutions are available from either traditional planning or advanced intelligent searching methods and their evaluations with respect to operational requirements are essential for the operators. To facilitate thorough analysis, a timed Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) model is presented here to encapsulate the inter-relationships of the spatial and temporal constraints in the TAP.

Validation of the Chinese version of the Problem Areas in Diabetes (PAID-C) scale

OBJECTIVE To examine the psychometric properties of a Chinese version of the Problem Areas In Diabetes (PAID-C) scale. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The reliability and validity of the PAID-C were evaluated in a convenience sample of 205 outpatients with type 2 diabetes. Confirmatory factor analysis, Bland-Altman analysis, and Spearman's correlations facilitated the psychometric evaluation. RESULTS Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed a one-factor structure of the PAID-C (χ2/df ratio = 1.894, goodness-of-fit index = 0.901, comparative fit index = 0.905, root mean square error of approximation = 0.066). The PAID-C was associated with A1C (rs = 0.15; P < 0.05) and diabetes self-care behaviors in general diet (rs = −0.17; P < 0.05) and exercise (rs = −0.17; P < 0.05). The 4-week test-retest reliability demonstrated satisfactory stability (rs = 0.83; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS The PAID-C is a reliable and valid measure to determine diabetes-related emotional distress in Chinese people with type 2 diabetes.

Airborne engineered nanoparticles : are they a health problem?

This article focuses on airborne engineered nanoparticles generated in a growing number of commercial and research facilities. Despite their presence in the air of many such facilities, there are currently no established and validated measurement methods to detect them, characterise their properties or quantify their concentrations. In relation to their possible health impacts, the key questions include: (i) Are the particles in the nano-size range are more toxic than larger particles of the same material? (ii) Does the surface chemistry of the lung alters the toxicity of inhaled nanoparticles? (iii) Do nano-fibers pose the same risk as asbestos? and (iv) Are the methods for assessing the health risk are appropriate? This article summarises the state of knowledge in relation to these issues.

Dealing with the problem of cybercrime

Lack of a universally accepted and comprehensive taxonomy of cybercrime seriously impedes international efforts to accurately identify, report and monitor cybercrime trends. There is, not surprisingly, a corresponding disconnect internationally on the cybercrime legislation front, a much more serious problem and one which the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) says requires „the urgent attention of all nations‟. Yet, and despite the existence of the Council of Europe Convention on Cybercrime, a proposal for a global cybercrime treaty was rejected by the United Nations (UN) as recently as April 2010. This paper presents a refined and comprehensive taxonomy of cybercrime and demonstrates its utility for widespread use. It analyses how the USA, the UK, Australia and the UAE align with the CoE Convention and finds that more needs to be done to achieve conformance. We conclude with an analysis of the approaches used in Australia, in Queensland, and in the UAE, in Abu Dhabi, to fight cybercrime and identify a number of shared problems.

Empathy, neutrality and emotional intelligence: a balancing act for the emotional Einstein

Emotions play a central role in mediation as they help to define the scope and direction of a conflict. When a party to mediation expresses (and hence entrusts) their emotions to those present in a mediation, a mediator must do more than simply listen - they must attend to these emotions. Mediator empathy is an essential skill for communicating to a party that their feelings have been heard and understood, but it can lead mediators into trouble. Whilst there might exist a theoretical divide between the notions of empathy and sympathy, the very best characteristics of mediators (caring and compassionate nature) may see empathy and sympathy merge - resulting in challenges to mediator neutrality. This article first outlines the semantic difference between empathy and sympathy and the role that intrapsychic conflict can play in the convergence of these behavioural phenomena. It then defines emotional intelligence in the context of a mediation, suggesting that only the most emotionally intelligent mediators are able to emotionally connect with the parties, but maintain an impression of impartiality – the quality of remaining ‘attached yet detached’ to the process. It is argued that these emotionally intelligent mediators have the common qualities of strong self-awareness and emotional self-regulation.

Kidlit from a graduate student's perspective : a problem in theory?

Plenary Session: "New Voices in Children's Literature"

Working together for Toby : early childhood student teachers engaging in collaborative problem-based learning around child abuse and neglect

Early childhood teacher education programs have a responsibility, amongst many, to prepare teachers for decision-making on real world issues, such as child abuse and neglect. Their repertoire of skills can be enhanced by engaging with others, either face-to-face or online, in authentic problem-based learning. This paper draws on a study of early childhood student teachers who engaged in an authentic learning experience, which was to consider and to suggest how they would act upon a real-life case of child abuse encountered in an early childhood classroom in Queensland. This was the case of Toby (a pseudonym), who was suspected of being physically abused at home. Students drew upon relevant legislation, policy and resource materials to tackle Toby’s case. The paper provides evidence of students grappling with the complexity of a child abuse case and establishing, through collaboration with others, a proactive course of action. The paper has a dual focus. First, it discusses the pedagogical context in which early childhood student teachers deal with issues of child abuse and neglect in the course of their teacher education program. Second, it examines evidence of students engaging in collaborative problem-solving around issues of child abuse and neglect and teachers’ responsibilities, both legal and professional, to the children and families they work with. Early childhood policy-makers, practitioners and teacher educators are challenged to consider how early childhood teachers are best equipped to deal with child protection and early intervention.

Defending the patch : a labour geography analysis of unions’ construction of and responses to the problem of declining union membership amongst youth

If the trade union movement is to remain an influential force in the industrial, economic and socio/political arenas of industrialised nations it is vital that its recruitment of young members improve dramatically. Australian union membership levels have declined markedly over the last three decades and youth union membership levels have decreased more than any age group. Currently around 10% of young workers aged between 16-24 years are members of unions in Australia compared to 26% of workers aged 45-58 (Oliver, 2008). This decline has occurred throughout the union movement, in all states and in almost all industries and occupations. This research, which consists of interviews with union organisers and union officials, draws on perspectives from the labour geography literature to explore how union personnel located in various places, spaces and scales construct the issue of declining youth union membership. It explores the scale of connections within the labour movement and the extent to which these connections are leveraged to address the problem of youth union membership decline. To offer the reader a sense of context and perspective, the thesis firstly outlines the historical development of the union movement. It also reviews the literature on youth membership decline. Labour geography offers a rich and apposite analytical tool for investigation of this area. The notion of ‘scale’ as a dynamic, interactive, constructed and reconstructed entity (Ellem, 2006) is an appropriate lens for viewing youth-union membership issues. In this non-linear view, scale is a relational element which interplays with space, place and the environment (Howett, in Marston, 2000) rather than being ‘sequential’ and hierarchical. Importantly, the thesis investigates the notion of unions as ‘spaces of dependence’ (Cox, 1998a, p.2), organisations whose space is centred upon realising essential interests. It also considers the quality of unions’ interactions with others – their ‘spaces of engagement‘(Cox, 1998a, p.2), and the impact that this has upon their ability to recruit youth. The findings reveal that most respondents across the spectrum of the union movement attribute the decline in youth membership levels to factors external to the movement itself, such as changes to industrial relations legislation and the impact of globalisation on employment markets. However, participants also attribute responsibility for declining membership levels to the union movement itself, citing factors such as a lack of resourcing and a need to change unions’ perceived identity and methods of operation. The research further determined that networks of connections across the union movement are tenuous and, to date, are not being fully utilised to assist unions to overcome the youth recruitment dilemma. The study concludes that potential connections between unions are hampered by poor resourcing, workload issues and some deeply entrenched attitudes related to unions ‘defending (and maintaining) their patch’.

A geometrical approach to the motion planning problem for a submerged rigid body

The main focus of this paper is the motion planning problem for a deeply submerged rigid body. The equations of motion are formulated and presented by use of the framework of differential geometry and these equations incorporate external dissipative and restoring forces. We consider a kinematic reduction of the affine connection control system for the rigid body submerged in an ideal fluid, and present an extension of this reduction to the forced affine connection control system for the rigid body submerged in a viscous fluid. The motion planning strategy is based on kinematic motions; the integral curves of rank one kinematic reductions. This method is of particular interest to autonomous underwater vehicles which can not directly control all six degrees of freedom (such as torpedo shaped AUVs) or in case of actuator failure (i.e., under-actuated scenario). A practical example is included to illustrate our technique.

Using Association Rules to Solve the Cold-Start Problem in Recommender Systems

Recommender systems are widely used online to help users find other products, items etc that they may be interested in based on what is known about that user in their profile. Often however user profiles may be short on information and thus it is difficult for a recommender system to make quality recommendations. This problem is known as the cold-start problem. Here we investigate using association rules as a source of information to expand a user profile and thus avoid this problem. Our experiments show that it is possible to use association rules to noticeably improve the performance of a recommender system under the cold-start situation. Furthermore, we also show that the improvement in performance obtained can be achieved while using non-redundant rule sets. This shows that non-redundant rules do not cause a loss of information and are just as informative as a set of association rules that contain redundancy.