Association of nutritional risk and adverse medical outcomes across different medical inpatient populations

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of nutritional risk and its association with multiple adverse clinical outcomes in a large cohort of acutely ill medical inpatients from a Swiss tertiary care hospital. METHODS We prospectively followed consecutive adult medical inpatients for 30 d. Multivariate regression models were used to investigate the association of the initial Nutritional Risk Score (NRS 2002) with mortality, impairment in activities of daily living (Barthel Index <95 points), hospital length of stay, hospital readmission rates, and quality of life (QoL; adapted from EQ5 D); all parameters were measured at 30 d. RESULTS Of 3186 patients (mean age 71 y, 44.7% women), 887 (27.8%) were at risk for malnutrition with an NRS ≥3 points. We found strong associations (odds ratio/hazard ratio [OR/HR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) between nutritional risk and mortality (OR/HR, 7.82; 95% CI, 6.04-10.12), impaired Barthel Index (OR/HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.12-3.09), time to hospital discharge (OR/HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.43-0.52), hospital readmission (OR/HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.08-1.97), and all five dimensions of QoL measures. Associations remained significant after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and medical diagnoses. Results were robust in subgroup analysis with evidence of effect modification (P for interaction < 0.05) based on age and main diagnosis groups. CONCLUSION Nutritional risk is significant in acutely ill medical inpatients and is associated with increased medical resource use, adverse clinical outcomes, and impairments in functional ability and QoL. Randomized trials are needed to evaluate evidence-based preventive and treatment strategies focusing on nutritional factors to improve outcomes in these high-risk patients.

Evaluation of farm-level parameters derived from animal movements for use in risk-based surveillance programmes of cattle in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: This study focused on the descriptive analysis of cattle movements and farm-level parameters derived from cattle movements, which are considered to be generically suitable for risk-based surveillance systems in Switzerland for diseases where animal movements constitute an important risk pathway. METHODS: A framework was developed to select farms for surveillance based on a risk score summarizing 5 parameters. The proposed framework was validated using data from the bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) surveillance programme in 2013. RESULTS: A cumulative score was calculated per farm, including the following parameters; the maximum monthly ingoing contact chain (in 2012), the average number of animals per incoming movement, use of mixed alpine pastures and the number of weeks in 2012 a farm had movements registered. The final score for the farm depended on the distribution of the parameters. Different cut offs; 50, 90, 95 and 99%, were explored. The final scores ranged between 0 and 5. Validation of the scores against results from the BVD surveillance programme 2013 gave promising results for setting the cut off for each of the five selected farm level criteria at the 50th percentile. Restricting testing to farms with a score ≥ 2 would have resulted in the same number of detected BVD positive farms as testing all farms, i.e., the outcome of the 2013 surveillance programme could have been reached with a smaller survey. CONCLUSIONS: The seasonality and time dependency of the activity of single farms in the networks requires a careful assessment of the actual time period included to determine farm level criteria. However, selecting farms in the sample for risk-based surveillance can be optimized with the proposed scoring system. The system was validated using data from the BVD eradication program. The proposed method is a promising framework for the selection of farms according to the risk of infection based on animal movements.

Score de riesgo para recién nacidos prematuros.

En países en vías de desarrollo como Argentina, la sobrevida de prematuros de peso inferior a 1000 gramos dista mucho de los resultados reportados por países desarrolladas. Controles prenatales deficitarios, recursos técnicos limitados y la saturación de los servicios de Neonatología son en parte responsables de estas diferencias. Una de las situaciones frecuentemente asociada a decisiones éticas en neonatología se produce en torno al prematuro extremo. Las preguntas más difíciles de responder son si existe un límite de peso o edad gestacional por debajo del cual no se deban iniciar o agregar terapéuticas encaminadas a salvar la vida, por considerarlas inútiles para el niño, prolongan sin esperanza la vida, hacen sufrir al paciente y su familia y ocupar una unidad que priva de atención a otro niño con mayores posibilidades de sobrevida. En el presente estudio se elaboró un score de riesgo neonatal constituido por variables que caracterizan a muchas poblaciones de nuestros países latinoamericanos y que fue validado estadísticamente.El score es de rápida y fácil realización. Permite predecir si el prematuro grave es recuperable o no, posibilitando tomar decisiones éticas basadas en una técnica validada, que permite actuar en el mayor beneficio del niño y su familia, al mismo tiempo que se hace un uso más equitativo de los recursos.

Contribution of Genetic Background and Clinical Risk Factors to Low-Trauma Fractures in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Background.  The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods.  In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results.  A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions.  Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls.

Systemic circulatory influences on retinal microvascular function in middle-age individuals with low to moderate cardiovascular risk

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between retinal microvascular reactivity, circulatory markers for CVD risk and systemic antioxidative defence capacity in healthy middle-aged individuals with low to moderate risk of CVD. Methods: Retinal vascular reactivity to flickering light was assessed in 102 healthy participants (46-60 years) by means of dynamic retinal vessel analysis (DVA). Other vascular assessments included carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) and blood pressure (BP) measurements. Total cholesterol (CHOL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG) and blood glutathione levels in its reduced (GSH) and oxidized (GSSG) forms were also determined for each participant, along with Framingham risk scores (FRS). Results: Retinal arterial baseline diameter fluctuation (BDF) was independently, significantly and negatively influenced by LDL-C levels (β = -0.53, p = 0.027). Moreover, the arterial dilation slope (SlopeAD) was independently, significantly and positively associated with redox index (GSH: GSSG ratio, β = 0.28, p = 0.016), while the arterial constriction slope (SlopeAC) was significantly and negatively influenced by blood GSH levels (β = -0.20, p = 0.042), and positively associated with FRS (β = 0.25, p = 0.009). Venous BDF and dilation amplitude (DA) were also negatively influenced by plasma LDL-C levels (β = -0.83, p = 0.013; and β = -0.22, p = 0.028, respectively). Conclusions: In otherwise healthy individuals with low to moderate cardiovascular risk, retinal microvascular dilation and constriction responses to stress levels are influenced by systemic antioxidant capacity, and circulating markers for cardiovascular risk.

Simplified Predictive Instrument to Rule Out Acute Coronary Syndromes in a High-Risk Population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diagnostic protocols based on cardiac markers to identify low-risk chest pain patients suitable for early release from the emergency department can be applied to patients older than 65 years or with traditional cardiac risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single-center retrospective study of 231 consecutive patients with high-risk factor burden in which a first cardiac troponin (cTn) level was measured in the emergency department and a second cTn sample was drawn 4 to 14 hours later, we compared the performance of a modified 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) rule to a new risk classification scheme that identifies patients as low risk if they have no known coronary artery disease, a nonischemic electrocardiogram, and 2 cTn levels below the assay's limit of detection. Demographic and outcome data were abstracted through chart review. The median age of our population was 64 years, and 75% had Thrombosis In Myocardial Infarction risk score ≥2. Using our risk classification rule, 53 (23%) patients were low risk with a negative predictive value for 30-day cardiac events of 98%. Applying a modified ADAPT rule to our cohort, 18 (8%) patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 100%. In a sensitivity analysis, the negative predictive value of our risk algorithm did not change when we relied only on undetectable baseline cTn and eliminated the second cTn assessment. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed in prospective studies, this less-restrictive risk classification strategy could be used to safely identify chest pain patients with more traditional cardiac risk factors for early emergency department release.

A novel framework for predicting patients at risk of readmission

Uncertainty in decision-making for patients’ risk of re-admission arises due to non-uniform data and lack of knowledge in health system variables. The knowledge of the impact of risk factors will provide clinicians better decision-making and in reducing the number of patients admitted to the hospital. Traditional approaches are not capable to account for the uncertain nature of risk of hospital re-admissions. More problems arise due to large amount of uncertain information. Patients can be at high, medium or low risk of re-admission, and these strata have ill-defined boundaries. We believe that our model that adapts fuzzy regression method will start a novel approach to handle uncertain data, uncertain relationships between health system variables and the risk of re-admission. Because of nature of ill-defined boundaries of risk bands, this approach does allow the clinicians to target individuals at boundaries. Targeting individuals at boundaries and providing them proper care may provide some ability to move patients from high risk to low risk band. In developing this algorithm, we aimed to help potential users to assess the patients for various risk score thresholds and avoid readmission of high risk patients with proper interventions. A model for predicting patients at high risk of re-admission will enable interventions to be targeted before costs have been incurred and health status have deteriorated. A risk score cut off level would flag patients and result in net savings where intervention costs are much higher per patient. Preventing hospital re-admissions is important for patients, and our algorithm may also impact hospital income.

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

AIMS: Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

CONCLUSION: In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.

Alleles that increase risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus are not associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease

Although epidemiological studies suggest that type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD), the biological basis of this relationship is not well understood. The aim of this study was to examine the genetic comorbidity between the 2 disorders and to investigate whether genetic liability to T2DM, estimated by a genotype risk scores based on T2DM associated loci, is associated with increased risk of LOAD. This study was performed in 2 stages. In stage 1, we combined genotypes for the top 15 T2DM-associated polymorphisms drawn from approximately 3000 individuals (1349 cases and 1351 control subjects) with extracted and/or imputed data from 6 genome-wide studies (>10,000 individuals; 4507 cases, 2183 controls, 4989 population controls) to form a genotype risk score and examined if this was associated with increased LOAD risk in a combined meta-analysis. In stage 2, we investigated the association of LOAD with an expanded T2DM score made of 45 well-established variants drawn from the 6 genome-wide studies. Results were combined in a meta-analysis. Both stage 1 and stage 2 T2DM risk scores were not associated with LOAD risk (odds ratio = 0.988; 95% confidence interval, 0.972-1.004; p = 0.144 and odds ratio = 0.993; 95% confidence interval, 0.983-1.003; p = 0.149 per allele, respectively). Contrary to expectation, genotype risk scores based on established T2DM candidates were not associated with increased risk of LOAD. The observed epidemiological associations between T2DM and LOAD could therefore be a consequence of secondary disease processes, pleiotropic mechanisms, and/or common environmental risk factors. Future work should focus on well-characterized longitudinal cohorts with extensive phenotypic and genetic data relevant to both LOAD and T2DM.

Evaluating statistical and machine learning methods to predict risk of in-hospital child mortality in Uganda

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

How do the Australian guidelines for lipid-lowering drugs perform in practice? Cardiovascular disease risk in the AusDiab Study, 1999-2000

OBJECTIVE: To determine how well the current Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) eligibility criteria for subsidy of lipid-lowering drugs compare with current national guidelines for determining the population at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Analyses of the population-based, cross-sectional Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, conducted in 1999-2000. The 1991 Framingham risk prediction equation was used to compute 5-year risk of developing first-time CVD in 8286 participants aged 30-74 years with neither CVD nor diabetes. Based on the National Heart Foundation of Australia and Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand guidelines, people with either 5-year CVD risk > or = 15% or with 5-year CVD risk of 10%-< 15% and the metabolic syndrome were defined as having estimated high absolute CVD risk. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 5-year CVD risk; estimated population with high CVD risk. RESULTS: Among participants without prevalent CVD or diabetes, 7.9% of men and 1.5% of women had a 5-year CVD risk > or = 15%. Of the estimated residential Australian population in 2000 aged 30-74 years without CVD or diabetes, 717 000 people were considered to be at high absolute CVD risk. Among the high-risk AusDiab participants without CVD or diabetes, only 16.9% of men and 15.4% of women were being treated with lipid-lowering drugs. Of the 9.6% of participants free of CVD and diabetes who were untreated but eligible for subsidy under PBS criteria, only 27.4% had an estimated high absolute CVD risk. CONCLUSION: Strategies for CVD prevention using lipid-lowering medications can be improved by adoption of the absolute-risk approach.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BACKGROUND The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. RESULTS The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). CONCLUSIONS The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

The inter-rater reliability of the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community

Predicting risk of adverse healthcare outcomes is important to enable targeted delivery of interventions. The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC), designed for use by public health nurses (PHNs), measures the one-year risk of hospitalisation, institutionalisation and death in community-dwelling older adults according to a five-point global risk score: from low (score 1,2), medium (3) and high (4,5). We examined the inter-rater reliability (IRR) of the RISC between student PHNs (n=32) and expert raters using six cases (two low, medium and high-risk), scored before and after RISC training. Correlations increased for each adverse outcome, statistically significantly for institutionalisation (r=0.72 to 0.80,p=0.04) and hospitalisation, (r=0.51 to 0.71,p<0.01) but not death. Training improved accuracy for low-risk but not all high-risk cases. Overall, the RISC showed good IRR, which increased after RISC training. That reliability reduced for some high-risk cases suggests that the training programme requires adjustment to further improve IRR.

Physical activity guidelines and cardiovascular risk in children: a cross sectional analysis to determine whether 60 minutes is enough

BACKGROUND: Physical activity reduces cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends children engage in 60 min daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). The effect of compliance with this recommendation on childhood cardiovascular risk has not been empirically tested. To evaluate whether achieving recommendations results in reduced composite-cardiovascular risk score (CCVR) in children, and to examine if vigorous PA (VPA) has independent risk-reduction effects.

METHODS: PA was measured using accelerometry in 182 children (9-11 years). Subjects were grouped according to achievement of 60 min daily MVPA (active) or not (inactive). CCVR was calculated (sum of z-scores: DXA body fat %, blood pressure, VO2peak, flow mediated dilation, left ventricular diastolic function; CVR score ≥ 1SD indicated 'higher risk'). The cohort was further split into quintiles for VPA and odds ratios (OR) calculated for each quintile.

RESULTS: Active children (92 (53 boys)) undertook more MVPA (38 ± 11 min, P < 0.001), had greater VO2peak (4.5 ± 0.8 ml/kg/min P < 0.001), and lower fat % (3.9 ± 1.1 %, P < 0.001) than inactive. No difference were observed between active and inactive for CCVR or OR (P > 0.05). CCVR in the lowest VPA quintile was significantly greater than the highest quintile (3.9 ± 0.6, P < 0.05), and the OR was 4.7 times higher.

CONCLUSION: Achievement of current guidelines has positive effects on body composition and cardiorespiratory fitness, but not CCVR. Vigorous physical activity appears to have beneficial effects on CVD risk, independent of moderate PA, implying a more prescriptive approach may be needed for future VPA guidelines.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiometabolic risk factors in schoolchildren from Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

The objectives of this study are to investigate the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiovascular risk factors in schoolchildren and to evaluate the degree of association between overall and abdominal adiposity and cardiorespiratory fitness. A total of 1,875 children and adolescents attending public schools in Bogota, Colombia (56.2% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years). A cardiovascular risk score (Z-score) was calculated and participants were divided into tertiles according to low and high levels of overall (sum of the skinfold thicknesses) and abdominal adiposity. Schoolchildren with a high level of overall adiposity demonstrated significant differences in seven of the 10 variables analyzed (i.e. systolic and diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, triglycerides/HDL-c ratio, total cholesterol, glucose and cardiovascular risk score). Schoolchildren with high levels of both overall and abdominal adiposity and low cardiorespiratory fitness had the least favorable cardiovascular risk factors score. These findings may be relevant to health promotion in Colombian youth.