Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM

The processes that govern the predictability of decadal variations in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are investigated in a long control simulation of the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere–ocean model. We elucidate the roles of local stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, and other potential ocean processes, and use our results to build a predictive regression model. The primary influence on MOC variability is found to come from air–sea heat fluxes over the Eastern Labrador Sea. The maximum correlation between such anomalies and the variations in the MOC occurs at a lead time of 2 years, but we demonstrate that the MOC integrates the heat flux variations over a period of 10 years. The corresponding univariate regression model accounts for 74.5% of the interannual variability in the MOC (after the Ekman component has been removed). Dense anomalies to the south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge are also shown to precede the overturning variations by 4–6 years, and provide a second predictor. With the inclusion of this second predictor the resulting regression model explains 82.8% of the total variance of the MOC. This final bivariate model is also tested during large rapid decadal overturning events. The sign of the rapid change is always well represented by the bivariate model, but the magnitude is usually underestimated, suggesting that other processes are also important for these large rapid decadal changes in the MOC.

On the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport to climate change in coupled climate models

The CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) models show a consistent intensification and poleward shift of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean during the 21st century. However, the responses of the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents (ACC) show great diversity in these models, with many even showing reductions in transport. To obtain some understanding of diverse responses in the ACC transport, we investigate both external atmospheric and internal oceanic processes that control the ACC transport responses in these models. While the strengthened westerlies act to increase the tilt of isopycnal surfaces and hence the ACC transport through Ekman pumping effects, the associated changes in buoyancy forcing generally tend to reduce the surface meridional density gradient. The steepening of isopycnal surfaces induced by increased wind forcing leads to enhanced (parameterized) eddy-induced transports that act to reduce the isopycnal slopes. There is also considerable narrowing of the ACC that tends to reduce the ACC transport, caused mainly by the poleward shifts of the subtropical gyres and to a lesser extent by the equatorward expansions of the subpolar gyres in some models. If the combined effect of these retarding processes is larger than that of enhanced Ekman pumping, the ACC transport will be reduced. In addition, the effect of Ekman pumping on the ACC is reduced in weakly stratified models. These findings give insight into the reliability of IPCC-class model predictions of the Southern Ocean circulation, and into the observed decadal-scale steady ACC transport.

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales, from five-daily to interannual. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the time-mean is within about 10% of the observational estimate. The amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations, but the shape of the annual cycle shows a spread among the models. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. The time-mean of the western boundary current near the latitude of the RAPID/MOCHA array has a much wider model spread than the AMOC does, indicating large differences among models in the simulation of the wind-driven gyre circulation, and its variability is unrealistically small in the models. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15--45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N, where it is particularly relevant to European climate, is not well-correlated with that of the AMOC at 26N, where it is monitored by the RAPID/MOCHA array.

Viscous coupling of shear-free turbulence across nearly flat fluid interfaces

The interactions between shear-free turbulence in two regions (denoted as + and − on either side of a nearly flat horizontal interface are shown here to be controlled by several mechanisms, which depend on the magnitudes of the ratios of the densities, ρ+/ρ−, and kinematic viscosities of the fluids, μ+/μ−, and the root mean square (r.m.s.) velocities of the turbulence, u0+/u0−, above and below the interface. This study focuses on gas–liquid interfaces so that ρ+/ρ− ≪ 1 and also on where turbulence is generated either above or below the interface so that u0+/u0− is either very large or very small. It is assumed that vertical buoyancy forces across the interface are much larger than internal forces so that the interface is nearly flat, and coupling between turbulence on either side of the interface is determined by viscous stresses. A formal linearized rapid-distortion analysis with viscous effects is developed by extending the previous study by Hunt & Graham (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 84, 1978, pp. 209–235) of shear-free turbulence near rigid plane boundaries. The physical processes accounted for in our model include both the blocking effect of the interface on normal components of the turbulence and the viscous coupling of the horizontal field across thin interfacial viscous boundary layers. The horizontal divergence in the perturbation velocity field in the viscous layer drives weak inviscid irrotational velocity fluctuations outside the viscous boundary layers in a mechanism analogous to Ekman pumping. The analysis shows the following. (i) The blocking effects are similar to those near rigid boundaries on each side of the interface, but through the action of the thin viscous layers above and below the interface, the horizontal and vertical velocity components differ from those near a rigid surface and are correlated or anti-correlated respectively. (ii) Because of the growth of the viscous layers on either side of the interface, the ratio uI/u0, where uI is the r.m.s. of the interfacial velocity fluctuations and u0 the r.m.s. of the homogeneous turbulence far from the interface, does not vary with time. If the turbulence is driven in the lower layer with ρ+/ρ− ≪ 1 and u0+/u0− ≪ 1, then uI/u0− ~ 1 when Re (=u0−L−/ν−) ≫ 1 and R = (ρ−/ρ+)(v−/v+)1/2 ≫ 1. If the turbulence is driven in the upper layer with ρ+/ρ− ≪ 1 and u0+/u0− ≫ 1, then uI/u0+ ~ 1/(1 + R). (iii) Nonlinear effects become significant over periods greater than Lagrangian time scales. When turbulence is generated in the lower layer, and the Reynolds number is high enough, motions in the upper viscous layer are turbulent. The horizontal vorticity tends to decrease, and the vertical vorticity of the eddies dominates their asymptotic structure. When turbulence is generated in the upper layer, and the Reynolds number is less than about 106–107, the fluctuations in the viscous layer do not become turbulent. Nonlinear processes at the interface increase the ratio uI/u0+ for sheared or shear-free turbulence in the gas above its linear value of uI/u0+ ~ 1/(1 + R) to (ρ+/ρ−)1/2 ~ 1/30 for air–water interfaces. This estimate agrees with the direct numerical simulation results from Lombardi, De Angelis & Bannerjee (Phys. Fluids, vol. 8, no. 6, 1996, pp. 1643–1665). Because the linear viscous–inertial coupling mechanism is still significant, the eddy motions on either side of the interface have a similar horizontal structure, although their vertical structure differs.

Boundary-layer friction in midlatitude cyclone

Results from an idealized three-dimensional baroclinic life-cycle model are interpreted in a potential vorticity (PV) framework to identify the physical mechanisms by which frictional processes acting in the atmospheric boundary layer modify and reduce the baroclinic development of a midlatitude storm. Considering a life cycle where the only non-conservative process acting is boundary-layer friction, the rate of change of depth-averaged PV within the boundary layer is governed by frictional generation of PV and the flux of PV into the free troposphere. Frictional generation of PV has two contributions: Ekman generation, which is directly analogous to the well-known Ekman-pumping mechanism for barotropic vortices, and baroclinic generation, which depends on the turning of the wind in the boundary layer and low-level horizontal temperature gradients. It is usually assumed, at least implicitly, that an Ekman process of negative PV generation is the mechanism whereby friction reduces the strength and growth rates of baroclinic systems. Although there is evidence for this mechanism, it is shown that baroclinic generation of PV dominates, producing positive PV anomalies downstream of the low centre, close to developing warm and cold fronts. These PV anomalies are advected by the large-scale warm conveyor belt flow upwards and polewards, fluxed into the troposphere near the warm front, and then advected westwards relative to the system. The result is a thin band of positive PV in the lower troposphere above the surface low centre. This PV is shown to be associated with a positive static stability anomaly, which Rossby edge wave theory suggests reduces the strength of the coupling between the upper- and lower-level PV anomalies, thereby reducing the rate of baroclinic development. This mechanism, which is a result of the baroclinic dynamics in the frontal regions, is in marked contrast with simple barotropic spin-down ideas. Finally we note the implications of these frictionally generated PV anomalies for cyclone forecasting.

Atlantic meridional heat transports in two ocean reanalyes evaluated against the RAPID array

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in two versions of the NEMO ¼° global ocean model has been compared with the RAPID transport array at 26oN. Both model versions reproduce the mean MOC strength well although the Florida Straits flows differ because the pathway of the Gulf Stream is not strongly constrained at this resolution. Both models however have a mean meridional heat transport of 1.07PW, much lower than the 1.35PW from RAPID observations in Apr04-Oct07. Much of the heat transport discrepancy is due to lower transports in summer across the MidOcean (Bahamas-Africa) section, due to stronger southward geostrophic flows in the top 100m where the water is warmest. Seasonal thermocline changes increase temperature differences across the basin driving stronger geostrophic shear, but this effect is much weaker in the top 100m of the RAPID velocity data. The effect accounts for a reduction of 1.1Sv in MOC and 0.1PW in heat transports. The rest of the discrepancy comes from lower Ekman transports from using ERAInterim winds instead of QuikSCAT, a smaller zonally-varying “Eddy” heat transport component, estimated from repeat XBT sections in the observations, and the southward throughflow in the model. Other differences in depth structure of the model MOC and RAPID observations are described but have much less impact on heat transports.

Constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy dissipation in forced two-dimensional turbulence

We study two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in a doubly periodic domain driven by a monoscale-like forcing and damped by various dissipation mechanisms of the form νμ(−Δ)μ. By “monoscale-like” we mean that the forcing is applied over a finite range of wavenumbers kmin≤k≤kmax, and that the ratio of enstrophy injection η≥0 to energy injection ε≥0 is bounded by kmin2ε≤η≤kmax2ε. Such a forcing is frequently considered in theoretical and numerical studies of 2D turbulence. It is shown that for μ≥0 the asymptotic behaviour satisfies ∥u∥12≤kmax2∥u∥2, where ∥u∥2 and ∥u∥12 are the energy and enstrophy, respectively. If the condition of monoscale-like forcing holds only in a time-mean sense, then the inequality holds in the time mean. It is also shown that for Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1), the time-mean enstrophy dissipation rate is bounded from above by 2ν1kmax2. These results place strong constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy and of their dissipation, and thereby on the existence of energy and enstrophy cascades, in such systems. In particular, the classical dual cascade picture is shown to be invalid for forced 2D Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1) when it is forced in this manner. Inclusion of Ekman drag (μ=0) along with molecular viscosity permits a dual cascade, but is incompatible with the log-modified −3 power law for the energy spectrum in the enstrophy-cascading inertial range. In order to achieve the latter, it is necessary to invoke an inverse viscosity (μ<0). These constraints on permissible power laws apply for any spectrally localized forcing, not just for monoscale-like forcing.

The dependence of southern ocean meridional overturning on wind stress

An eddy-resolving numerical model of a zonal flow, meant to resemble the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is described and analyzed using the framework of J. Marshall and T. Radko. In addition to wind and buoyancy forcing at the surface, the model contains a sponge layer at the northern boundary that permits a residual meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to exist at depth. The strength of the residual MOC is diagnosed for different strengths of surface wind stress. It is found that the eddy circulation largely compensates for the changes in Ekman circulation. The extent of the compensation and thus the sensitivity of the MOC to the winds depend on the surface boundary condition. A fixed-heat-flux surface boundary severely limits the ability of the MOC to change. An interactive heat flux leads to greater sensitivity. To explain the MOC sensitivity to the wind strength under the interactive heat flux, transformed Eulerian-mean theory is applied, in which the eddy diffusivity plays a central role in determining the eddy response. A scaling theory for the eddy diffusivity, based on the mechanical energy balance, is developed and tested; the average magnitude of the diffusivity is found to be proportional to the square root of the wind stress. The MOC sensitivity to the winds based on this scaling is compared with the true sensitivity diagnosed from the experiments.

Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

The RAPID-MOCHA array has observed the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N since 2004. During 2009/2010, there was a transient 30% weakening of the AMOC driven by anomalies in geostrophic and Ekman transports. Here, we use simulations based on the Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) to diagnose the relative importance of atmospheric forcings and internal ocean dynamics in driving the anomalous geostrophic circulation of 2009/10. Data assimilating experiments with FOAM accurately reproduce the mean strength and depth of the AMOC at 26.5°N. In addition, agreement between simulated and observed stream functions in the deep ocean is improved when we calculate the AMOC using a method that approximates the RAPID observations. The main features of the geostrophic circulation anomaly are captured by an ensemble of simulations without data-assimilation. These model results suggest that the atmosphere played a dominant role in driving recent interannual variability of the AMOC.

Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate

The summertime variability of the extratropical storm track over the Atlantic sector and its links to European climate have been analysed for the period 1948–2011 using observations and reanalyses. The main results are as follows. (1) The dominant mode of the summer storm track density variability is characterized by a meridional shift of the storm track between two distinct paths and is related to a bimodal distribution in the climatology for this region. It is also closely related to the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). (2) A southward shift is associated with a downstream extension of the storm track and a decrease in blocking frequency over the UK and northwestern Europe. (3) The southward shift is associated with enhanced precipitation over the UK and northwestern Europe and decreased precipitation over southern Europe (contrary to the behaviour in winter). (4) There are strong ocean–atmosphere interactions related to the dominant mode of storm track variability. The atmosphere forces the ocean through anomalous surface fluxes and Ekman currents, but there is also some evidence consistent with an ocean influence on the atmosphere, and that coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks might play a role. The ocean influence on the atmosphere may be particularly important on decadal timescales, related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

[Global climate] global aerosols [in state of the climate in 2008]

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland. The year 2008 was also characterized by heavy precipitation in a number of regions of northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. In contrast, a prolonged and intense drought occurred during most of 2008 in northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, causing severe impacts to agriculture and affecting many communities. The year began with a strong La Niña episode that ended in June. Eastward surface current anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean in early 2008 played a major role in adjusting the basin from strong La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions by July–August, followed by a return to La Niña conditions late in December. The La Niña conditions resulted in far-reaching anomalies such as a cooling in the central tropical Pacific, Arctic Ocean, and the regions extending from the Gulf of Alaska to the west coast of North America; changes in the sea surface salinity and heat content anomalies in the tropics; and total column water vapor, cloud cover, tropospheric temperature, and precipitation patterns typical of a La Niña. Anomalously salty ocean surface salinity values in climatologically drier locations and anomalously fresh values in rainier locations observed in recent years generally persisted in 2008, suggesting an increase in the hydrological cycle. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the 14th busiest on record and the only season ever recorded with major hurricanes each month from July through November. Conversely, activity in the northwest Pacific was considerably below normal during 2008. While activity in the north Indian Ocean was only slightly above average, the season was punctuated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 145,000 people; in addition, it was the seventh-strongest cyclone ever in the basin and the most devastating to hit Asia since 1991. Greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, increasing by more than expected based on with CO2 the 1979 to 2007 trend. In the oceans, the global mean uptake for 2007 is estimated to be 1.67 Pg-C, about CO2 0.07 Pg-C lower than the long-term average, making it the third-largest anomaly determined with this method since 1983, with the largest uptake of carbon over the past decade coming from the eastern Indian Ocean. Global phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations were slightly elevated in 2008 relative to 2007, but regional changes were substantial (ranging to about 50%) and followed long-term patterns of net decreases in chlorophyll with increasing sea surface temperature. Ozone-depleting gas concentrations continued to fall globally to about 4% below the peak levels of the 2000–02 period. Total column ozone concentrations remain well below pre-1980, levels and the 2008 ozone hole was unusually large (sixth worst on record) and persistent, with low ozone values extending into the late December period. In fact the polar vortex in 2008 persisted longer than for any previous year since 1979. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for the year was well below average due in large part to the record-low ice extent in March and despite the record-maximum coverage in January and the shortest snow cover duration on record (which started in 1966) in the North American Arctic. Limited preliminary data imply that in 2008 glaciers continued to lose mass, and full data for 2007 show it was the 17th consecutive year of loss. The northern region of Greenland and adjacent areas of Arctic Canada experienced a particularly intense melt season, even though there was an abnormally cold winter across Greenland's southern half. One of the most dramatic signals of the general warming trend was the continued significant reduction in the extent of the summer sea-ice cover and, importantly, the decrease in the amount of relatively older, thicker ice. The extent of the 2008 summer sea-ice cover was the second-lowest value of the satellite record (which started in 1979) and 36% below the 1979–2000 average. Significant losses in the mass of ice sheets and the area of ice shelves continued, with several fjords on the northern coast of Ellesmere Island being ice free for the first time in 3,000–5,500 years. In Antarctica, the positive phase of the SAM led to record-high total sea ice extent for much of early 2008 through enhanced equatorward Ekman transport. With colder continental temperatures at this time, the 2007–08 austral summer snowmelt season was dramatically weakened, making it the second shortest melt season since 1978 (when the record began). There was strong warming and increased precipitation along the Antarctic Peninsula and west Antarctica in 2008, and also pockets of warming along coastal east Antarctica, in concert with continued declines in sea-ice concentration in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas. One significant event indicative of this warming was the disintegration and retreat of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in the southwest peninsula area of Antarctica.

The effect of a new drag-law parameterization on ice shelf water plume dynamics

A drag law accounting for Ekman rotation adjacent to a flat, horizontal bou ndary is proposed for use in a plume model that is written in terms of the depth-mean velocity. The drag l aw contains a variable turning angle between the mean velocity and the drag imposed by the turbulent bound ary layer. The effect of the variable turning angle in the drag law is studied for a plume of ice shelf wat er (ISW) ascending and turning beneath an Antarctic ice shelf with draft decreasing away from the groundi ng line. As the ISW plume ascends the sloping ice shelf–ocean boundary, it can melt the ice shelf, wh ich alters the buoyancy forcing driving the plume motion. Under these conditions, the typical turning ang le is of order 10° over most of the plume area for a range of drag coefficients (the minus sign arises for th e Southern Hemisphere). The rotation of the drag with respect to the mean velocity is found to be signifi cant if the drag coefficient exceeds 0.003; in this case the plume body propagates farther along and across the b ase of the ice shelf than a plume with the standard quadratic drag law with no turning angle.

A multi-model analysis of the role of the ocean on the African and Indian monsoon during mid-Holocene

We investigate the role of the ocean feedback on the climate in response to insolation forcing during the mid-Holocene (6,000 year BP) using results from seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. We examine how the dipole in late summer sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic increases the length of the African monsoon, how this dipole structure is created and maintained, and how the late summer SST warming in the northwest Indian Ocean affects the monsoon retreat in this sector. Similar mechanisms are found in all of the models, including a strong wind evaporation feedback and changes in the mixed layer depth that enhance the insolation forcing, as well as increased Ekman transport in the Atlantic that sharpens the Atlantic dipole pattern. We also consider changes in interannual variability over West Africa and the Indian Ocean. The teleconnection between variations in SST and Sahelian precipitation favor a larger impact of the Atlantic dipole mode in this region. In the Indian Ocean, the strengthening of the Indian dipole structure in autumn has a damping effect on the Indian dipole mode at the interannual time scale

Mechanisms for AMOC variability simulated by the NEMO model

We have investigated mechanisms for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability at 26.5° N (other than the Ekman component) that can be related to external forcings, in particular wind variability. Resolution dependence is studied using identical experiments with 1° and 1/4° NEMO model runs over 1960–2010. The analysis shows that much of the variability in the AMOC at 26° N can be related to the wind strength over the North Atlantic, through mechanisms lagged on different timescales. At ~ 1-year lag the January–June difference of mean sea level pressure between high and mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic explains 35–50% of the interannual AMOC variability (with negative correlation between wind strength and AMOC). At longer lead timescales ~ 4 years, strong (weak) winds over the northern North Atlantic (specifically linked to the NAO index) are followed by higher (lower) AMOC transport, but this mechanism only works in the 1/4° model. Analysis of the density correlations suggests an increase (decrease) in deep water formation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to be the cause. Therefore another 30% of the AMOC variability at 26° N can be related to density changes in the top 1000 m in the Labrador and Irminger seas occurring ~ 4 years earlier.

The importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for the boundary density variations and the geostrophic component of the AMOC at 26°N

It is widely thought that changes in both the surface buoyancy fluxes and wind stress drive variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but that they drive variability on different time scales. For example, wind forcing dominates short-term variability through its effects on Ekman currents and coastal upwelling, whereas buoyancy forcing is important for longer time scales (multiannual and decadal). However, the role of the wind forcing on multiannual to decadal time scales is less clear. Here the authors present an analysis of simulations with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with the aim of explaining the important drivers of the zonal density gradient at 26°N, which is directly related to the AMOC. In the experiments, only one of either the wind stress or the buoyancy forcing is allowed to vary in time, whereas the other remains at its seasonally varying climatology. On subannual time scales, variations in the density gradient, and in the AMOC minus Ekman, are driven largely by local wind-forced coastal upwelling at both the western and eastern boundaries. On decadal time scales, buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation dominates variability in the AMOC. Interestingly, however, it is found that wind forcing also plays a role at longer time scales, primarily impacting the interannual variability through the excitation of Rossby waves in the central Atlantic, which propagate westward to interact with the western boundary, but also by modulating the decadal time-scale response to buoyancy forcing.