Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

The prevention and diagnosis of central venous catheter-related infection

The potential source of CVC colonisation was assessed. Isolates of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) recovered from the skin and CVC components of 3 cardiothoracic surgery patients were characterised by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The genetic heterogeneity of CoNS isolated from the skin was demonstrated and specific genotypes implicated in catheter colonisation. In addition, phenotypic and genotypic typing techniques were assessed for their ability to characterise strains of CoNS recovered from 33 patients who developed catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI) on a bone marrow transplant (BMT) unit and Siaphylococcus aureus recovered from 6 cardiothoracic surgery patients with surgical site infection (SSI) following median sternotomy. This epidemiological investigation revealed that common strains of CoNS and 51 aureus where not associated with infection in patients with CR-BSI or sternal SSI during the study period. Furthermore, there was no correlation between phenotypic and genotypic characterisation results. The variable expression of phenotypic traits within strains of staphylococci was evident whilst PFGE and randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) were highly discriminatory for the molecular characterisation of S. aureus and CoNS. This was highlighted in 8 stem cell transplant (SCT) patients whereby it was demonstrated that routine identification and characterisation of CoNS by phenotypic techniques may not be adequate for the diagnosis of CR-BSI by current guidelines. The potential of the lipid S ELISA to facilitate the diagnosis of CR-BSI in 38 haematology/SCT patients and sternal SSI in 57 cardiothoracic surgery patients was also assessed. The ELISA proved to be a sensitive test for the rapid serodiagnosis of infection due to staphylococci in immunocompetent patients. The acridine orange leucocyte cytospin test (AOLC) was also evaluated for the rapid diagnosis of CR-BSI in 16 haematology/SCT patients with Hickman CVC in situ. Although the sensitivity of the test was low, it may provide a useful adjunct to conventional methods for the in situ sampling of catheters to predict and diagnose CR-BSI, preventing the unnecessary removal of CVC.

Aspects of the design and control of manufacturing systems subject to demand uncertainty

The recent explosive growth in advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and continued development of sophisticated information technologies (IT) is expected to have a profound effect on the way we design and operate manufacturing businesses. Furthermore, the escalating capital requirements associated with these developments have significantly increased the level of risk associated with initial design, ongoing development and operation. This dissertation has examined the integration of two key sub-elements of the Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) system, namely the manufacturing facility and the production control system. This research has concentrated on the interactions between production control (MRP) and an AMT based production facility. The disappointing performance of such systems has been discussed in the context of a number of potential technological and performance incompatibilities between these two elements. It was argued that the design and selection of operating policies for both is the key to successful integration. Furthermore, policy decisions are shown to play an important role in matching the performance of the total system to the demands of the marketplace. It is demonstrated that a holistic approach to policy design must be adopted if successful integration is to be achieved. It is shown that the complexity of the issues resulting from such an approach required the formulation of a structured design methodology. Such a methodology was subsequently developed and discussed. This combined a first principles approach to the behaviour of system elements with the specification of a detailed holistic model for use in the policy design environment. The methodology aimed to make full use of the `low inertia' characteristics of AMT, whilst adopting a JIT configuration of MRP and re-coupling the total system to the market demands. This dissertation discussed the application of the methodology to an industrial case study and the subsequent design of operational policies. Consequently a novel approach to production control resulted. A central feature of which was a move toward reduced manual intervention in the MRP processing and scheduling logic with increased human involvement and motivation in the management of work-flow on the shopfloor. Experimental results indicated that significant performance advantages would result from the adoption of the recommended policy set.

Computer-assisted production scheduling, planning and control in foundries

The present study describes a pragmatic approach to the implementation of production planning and scheduling techniques in foundries of all types and looks at the use of `state-of-the-art' management control and information systems. Following a review of systems for the classification of manufacturing companies, a definitive statement is made which highlights the important differences between foundries (i.e. `component makers') and other manufacturing companies (i.e. `component buyers'). An investigation of the manual procedures which are used to plan and control the manufacture of components reveals the inherent problems facing foundry production management staff, which suggests the unsuitability of many manufacturing techniques which have been applied to general engineering companies. From the literature it was discovered that computer-assisted systems are required which are primarily `information-based' rather than `decision based', whilst the availability of low-cost computers and `packaged-software' has enabled foundries to `get their feet wet' without the financial penalties which characterized many of the early attempts at computer-assistance (i.e. pre-1980). Moreover, no evidence of a single methodology for foundry scheduling emerged from the review. A philosophy for the development of a CAPM system is presented, which details the essential information requirements and puts forward proposals for the subsequent interactions between types of information and the sub-system of CAPM which they support. The work developed was oriented specifically at the functions of production planning and scheduling and introduces the concept of `manual interaction' for effective scheduling. The techniques developed were designed to use the information which is readily available in foundries and were found to be practically successful following the implementation of the techniques into a wide variety of foundries. The limitations of the techniques developed are subsequently discussed within the wider issues which form a CAPM system, prior to a presentation of the conclusions which can be drawn from the study.

The implications of cost behaviour for profit planning and control

The work described in the following pages was carried out at various sites in the Rod Division of the Delta Metal Company. Extensive variation in the level of activity in the industry during the years 1974 to I975 had led to certain inadequacies being observed 1n the traditional cost control procedure. In an attempt to remedy this situation it was suggested that a method be found of constructing a system to improve the flexibility of cost control procedures. The work involved an assimilation of the industrial and financial environment via pilot studies which would later prove invaluable to home in on the really interesting and important areas. Weaknesses in the current systems which came to light made the methodology of data collection and the improvement of cost control and profit planning procedures easier to adopt. Because of the requirements of the project to investigate the implications of Cost behaviour for profit planning and control, the next stage of the research work was to utilise the on-site experience to examine at a detailed level the nature of cost behaviour. The analysis of factory costs then showed that certain costs, which were the most significant exhibited a stable relationship with respect to some known variable, usually a specific measure of Output. These costs were then formulated in a cost model, to establish accurate standards in a complex industrial setting in order to provide a meaningful comparison against which to judge actual performance. The necessity of a cost model was •reinforced by the fact that the cost behaviour found to exist was, in the main, a step function, and this complex cost behaviour, the traditional cost and profit planning procedures could not possibly incorporate. Already implemented from this work is the establishment of the post of information officer to co-ordinate data collection and information provision.

Public ownership and control in the private sector

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The role of accounting in planning and control: with special reference to the Egyptian iron and steel company Hadisolb

This thesis investigates the role of accounting in planning and control in the Egyptian Iron and Steel Company "Hadisolb". The hypothesis is that there should be planning and control at appropriate levels, with a significant accounting involvement, In an organisation such as the Egyptian Iron and Steel Company "Hadisolb" . Part One of the thesis explains the role of accounting in planning and control, with special emphasis on its role in long-range corporate planning and control. Parts Two and Three review the history of the Egyptian Iron and Steel Company "Hadisolb", its organisation and structure, also the role of accounting in its planning and control arrangements, together with comments and criticisms concerning this. Part Four is mainly recommendations for alterations or improvements in planning and control in Hadisolb. This includes a suggested planning and organisation structure, physical and cost control reporting structures.

Design, implementation and control of a small industrial manufacturing system

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Aspects of the prevention and repair of chloride-induced corrosion of steel in concrete

Sodium formate, potassium acetate and a mixture of calcium and magnesium acetate (CMA) have all been identified as effective de-icing agents. In this project an attempt has been made to elucidate potentially deleterious effects of these substances on the durability of reinforced concrete. Aspects involving the corrosion behaviour of embedded steel along with the chemical and physical degradation of the cementitious matrix were studied. Ionic diffusion characteristics of deicer/pore solution systems in hardened cement paste were also studied since rates of ingress of deleterious agents into cement paste are commonly diffusion-controlled. It was found that all the compounds tested were generally non-corrosive to embedded steel, however, in a small number of cases potassium acetate did cause corrosion. Potassium acetate was also found to cause cracking in concrete and cement paste samples. CMA appeared to degrade hydrated cement paste although this was apparently less of a problem when commercial grade CMA was used in place of the reagent grade chemical. This was thought to be due to the insoluble material present in the commercial formulation forming a physical barrier between the concrete and the de-icing solution. With the test regimes used sodium formate was not seen to have any deleterious effect on the integrity of reinforced concrete. As a means of restoring the corrosion protective character of chloride-contaminated concrete the process of electrochemical chloride removal has been previously developed. Potential side-effects of this method and the effect of external electrolyte composition on chloride removal efficiency were investigated. It was seen that the composition of the external electrolyte has a significant effect on the amount of chloride removed. It was also found that, due to alterations to the composition of the C3A hydration reaction products, it was possible to remove bound chloride as well as that in the pore solution. The use of an external electrolyte containing lithium ions was also tried as a means of preventing cathodically-induced alkali-silica reaction in concretes containing potentially reactive aggregates. The results obtained were inconclusive and further practical development of this approach is needed.

The dynamics and control of a remotely piloted plan-symmetric helicopter

Prior to the development of a production standard control system for ML Aviation's plan-symmetric remotely piloted helicopter system, SPRITE, optimum solutions to technical requirements had yet to be found for some aspects of the work. This thesis describes an industrial project where solutions to real problems have been provided within strict timescale constraints. Use has been made of published material wherever appropriate, new solutions have been contributed where none existed previously. A lack of clearly defined user requirements from potential Remotely Piloted Air Vehicle (RPAV) system users is identified, A simulation package is defined to enable the RPAV designer to progress with air vehicle and control system design, development and evaluation studies and to assist the user to investigate his applications. The theoretical basis of this simulation package is developed including Co-axial Contra-rotating Twin Rotor (CCTR), six degrees of freedom motion, fuselage aerodynamics and sensor and control system models. A compatible system of equations is derived for modelling a miniature plan-symmetric helicopter. Rigorous searches revealed a lack of CCTR models, based on closed form expressions to obviate integration along the rotor blade, for stabilisation and navigation studies through simulation. An economic CCTR simulation model is developed and validated by comparison with published work and practical tests. Confusion in published work between attitude and Euler angles is clarified. The implementation of package is discussed. dynamic adjustment of assessment. the theory into a high integrity software Use is made of a novel technique basing the integration time step size on error Simulation output for control system stability verification, cross coupling of motion between control channels and air vehicle response to demands and horizontal wind gusts studies are presented. Contra-Rotating Twin Rotor Flight Control System Remotely Piloted Plan-Symmetric Helicopter Simulation Six Degrees of Freedom Motion ( i i)