Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation

Vintage-based vector autoregressive models of a single macroeconomic variable are shown to be a useful vehicle for obtaining forecasts of different maturities of future and past observations, including estimates of post-revision values. The forecasting performance of models which include information on annual revisions is superior to that of models which only include the first two data releases. However, the empirical results indicate that a model which reflects the seasonal nature of data releases more closely does not offer much improvement over an unrestricted vintage-based model which includes three rounds of annual revisions.

Evidence that nematodes may vector the soft rot-causing enterobacterial phytopathogens

Bacterial soft rot is a globally significant plant disease that causes major losses in the production of many popular crops, such as potato. Little is known about the dispersal and ecology of soft-rot enterobacteria, and few animals have been identified as vectors for these pathogens. This study investigates whether soil-living and bacterial-feeding nematodes could act as vectors for the dispersal of soft-rot enterobacteria to plants. Soft-rot enterobacteria associated with nematodes were quantified and visualized through bacterial enumeration, GFP-tagging, and confocal and electron scanning microscopy. Soft-rot enterobacteria were able to withstand nematode grazing, colonize the gut of Caenorhabditis elegans and subsequently disperse to plant material while remaining virulent. Two nematode species were also isolated from a rotten potato sample obtained from a potato storage facility in Finland. Furthermore, one of these isolates (Pristionchus sp. FIN-1) was shown to be able to disperse soft-rot enterobacteria to plant material. The interaction of nematodes and soft-rot enterobacteria seems to be more mutualistic rather than pathogenic, but more research is needed to explain how soft-rot enterobacteria remain viable inside nematodes.

The role of the harmonic vector average in motion integration

The local speeds of object contours vary systematically with the cosine of the angle between the normal component of the local velocity and the global object motion direction. An array of Gabor elements whose speed changes with local spatial orientation in accordance with this pattern can appear to move as a single surface. The apparent direction of motion of plaids and Gabor arrays has variously been proposed to result from feature tracking, vector addition and vector averaging in addition to the geometrically correct global velocity as indicated by the intersection of constraints (IOC) solution. Here a new combination rule, the harmonic vector average (HVA), is introduced, as well as a new algorithm for computing the IOC solution. The vector sum can be discounted as an integration strategy as it increases with the number of elements. The vector average over local vectors that vary in direction always provides an underestimate of the true global speed. The HVA, however, provides the correct global speed and direction for an unbiased sample of local velocities with respect to the global motion direction, as is the case for a simple closed contour. The HVA over biased samples provides an aggregate velocity estimate that can still be combined through an IOC computation to give an accurate estimate of the global velocity, which is not true of the vector average. Psychophysical results for type II Gabor arrays show perceived direction and speed falls close to the IOC direction for Gabor arrays having a wide range of orientations but the IOC prediction fails as the mean orientation shifts away from the global motion direction and the orientation range narrows. In this case perceived velocity generally defaults to the HVA.

Asset recombination in international partnerships as a source of improved innovation capabilities in China

Purpose This paper examines how multinational enterprises (MNEs) and local partners, including suppliers, customers, and competitors in China, improve their innovation capabilities through collaboration. We analyse this collaboration as a three-way interaction between the ownership-specific (O) advantages or firm-specific assets (FSAs) of the MNE subsidiary, the FSAs of the local partner, and the location-specific assets of the host location. Design/methodology/approach Our propositions are examined through a survey of 320 firms, supplemented with 30 in-depth case studies, based in mainland China. Findings We find that the recombination of asset-type (Oa) FSAs and transaction-type (Ot) FSAs from both partners leads to new innovation-related ownership advantages, or ‘recombinant advantages’. Ot FSAs, in the form of access to local suppliers, customers or government networks are particularly important for reducing the liability of foreignness for MNEs. Originality/value The study reveals important patterns of reciprocal transfer, sharing, and integration for different asset categories (tacit, codified) and different forms of FSA and explicitly links these to different innovation performance outcomes. The paper reports on these findings, making an empirical contribution in an important context (China-based partnerships). We also contribute to conceptual developments, connecting various kinds of FSA, tacit and codifiable assets and ‘recombinant advantages’. Limited conceptual, methodological, and empirical contributions are made in linking asset integration with (measurable) innovation performance outcomes in international partnerships.

Modelling personal thermal sensations using C-Support Vector Classification (C-SVC) algorithm

The personalised conditioning system (PCS) is widely studied. Potentially, it is able to reduce energy consumption while securing occupants’ thermal comfort requirements. It has been suggested that automatic optimised operation schemes for PCS should be introduced to avoid energy wastage and discomfort caused by inappropriate operation. In certain automatic operation schemes, personalised thermal sensation models are applied as key components to help in setting targets for PCS operation. In this research, a novel personal thermal sensation modelling method based on the C-Support Vector Classification (C-SVC) algorithm has been developed for PCS control. The personal thermal sensation modelling has been regarded as a classification problem. During the modelling process, the method ‘learns’ an occupant’s thermal preferences from his/her feedback, environmental parameters and personal physiological and behavioural factors. The modelling method has been verified by comparing the actual thermal sensation vote (TSV) with the modelled one based on 20 individual cases. Furthermore, the accuracy of each individual thermal sensation model has been compared with the outcomes of the PMV model. The results indicate that the modelling method presented in this paper is an effective tool to model personal thermal sensations and could be integrated within the PCS for optimised system operation and control.

Spatial expansion and population structure of the neotropical malaria vector, Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae)

Extensive population structuring is known to occur in Anopheles darlingi, the primary malaria vector of the Neotropics. We analysed the phylogeographic structure of the species using the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I marker. Diversity is divided into six main population groups in South America: Colombia, central Amazonia, southern Brazil, south-eastern Brazil, and two groups in north-east Brazil. The ancestral distribution of the taxon is hypothesized to be central Amazonia, and there is evidence of expansion from this region during the late Pleistocene. The expansion was not a homogeneous front, however, with at least four subgroups being formed due to geographic barriers. As the species spread, populations became isolated from each other by the Amazon River and the coastal mountain ranges of south-eastern Brazil and the Andes. Analyses incorporating distances around these barriers suggest that the entire South American range of An. darlingi is at mutation-dispersal-drift equilibrium. Because the species is distributed throughout such a broad area, the limited dispersal across some landscape types promotes differentiation between otherwise proximate populations. Moreover, samples from the An. darlingi holotype location in Rio de Janeiro State are substantially derived from all other populations, implying that there may be additional genetic differences of epidemiological relevance. The results obtained contribute to our understanding of gene flow in this species and allow the formulation of human mosquito health protocols in light of the potential population differences in vector capacity or tolerance to control strategies. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 97, 854-866.

High homologous gene conservation despite extreme autopolyploid redundancy in sugarcane

P>Modern sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) is the leading sugar crop and a primary energy crop. It has the highest level of `vertical` redundancy (2n = 12x = 120) of all polyploid plants studied to date. It was produced about a century ago through hybridization between two autopolyploid species, namely S. officinarum and S. spontaneum. In order to investigate the genome dynamics in this highly polyploid context, we sequenced and compared seven hom(oe)ologous haplotypes (bacterial artificial chromosome clones). Our analysis revealed a high level of gene retention and colinearity, as well as high gene structure and sequence conservation, with an average sequence divergence of 4% for exons. Remarkably, all of the hom(oe)ologous genes were predicted as being functional (except for one gene fragment) and showed signs of evolving under purifying selection, with the exception of genes within segmental duplications. By contrast, transposable elements displayed a general absence of colinearity among hom(oe)ologous haplotypes and appeared to have undergone dynamic expansion in Saccharum, compared with sorghum, its close relative in the Andropogonea tribe. These results reinforce the general trend emerging from recent studies indicating the diverse and nuanced effect of polyploidy on genome dynamics.

Non-homologous sex chromosomes in two species of the genus Eigenmannia (Teleostei : Gymnotiformes)

The Neotropical genus Eigenmannia is a fish group with unknown species diversity where representatives possess a broad range of chromosomal sex determining systems namely XY/XX, X1X2Y/X1X1X2X2, ZZ/ZW as well as homomorphic sex chromosomes. To test the homology of two heteromorphic XY sex chromosome systems present in two sympatric populations, reciprocal cross-species FISH experiments were performed using probes derived by microdissection of X and Y chromosomes present in analyzed specimens of Eigenmannia virescens and Eigenmannia sp.2, respectively. While X and Y paint probes hybridized to species-specific sex chromosomes, in reciprocal cross-FISH both probes hybridized exclusively to autosomes. The result suggests multiple independent origins of the XY systems in the analyzed populations. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.