Understanding lake and catchment history as a tool for integrated lake management

Sustainable lake management for nutrient-enriched lakes must be underpinned by an understanding of both the functioning of the lake, and the origins of changes in nutrient loading from the catchment. To date, limnologists have tended to focus on studying the impact of nutrient enrichment on the lake biota, and the dynamics of nutrient cycling between the water column, biota and sediments within the lake. Relatively less attention has been paid to understanding the specific origins of nutrient loading from the catchment and nutrient transport pathways linking the lake to its catchment. As such, when devising catchment management strategies to reduce nutrient loading on enriched lakes, assumptions have been made regarding the relative significance of non-point versus point sources in the catchment. These are not always supported by research conducted on catchment nutrient dynamics in other fields of freshwater science. Studies on nutrient enrichment in lakes need to take account of the history of catchment use and management specific to each lake in order to devise targeted and sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient loading to enriched lakes. Here a modelling approach which allows quantification of the relative contribution of nutrients from each specific point and non-point catchment source over the course of catchment history is presented. The approach has been applied to three contrasting catchments in the U.K. for the period 1931 to present. These are the catchment of Slapton Ley in south Devon, the River Esk in Cumbria and the Deben Estuary in Suffolk. Each catchment showed marked variations in the nature and intensity of land use and management. The model output quantifies the relative importance of point source versus non-point livestock and land use sources in each of the catchments, and demonstrates the necessity for an understanding of site-specific catchment history in devising suitable management strategies for the reduction of nutrient loading on enriched lakes.

The multisensory attentional consequences of tool use: a functional magnetic resonance imaging study

Background: Tool use in humans requires that multisensory information is integrated across different locations, from objects seen to be distant from the hand, but felt indirectly at the hand via the tool. We tested the hypothesis that using a simple tool to perceive vibrotactile stimuli results in the enhanced processing of visual stimuli presented at the distal, functional part of the tool. Such a finding would be consistent with a shift of spatial attention to the location where the tool is used. Methodology/Principal Findings: We tested this hypothesis by scanning healthy human participants' brains using functional magnetic resonance imaging, while they used a simple tool to discriminate between target vibrations, accompanied by congruent or incongruent visual distractors, on the same or opposite side to the tool. The attentional hypothesis was supported: BOLD response in occipital cortex, particularly in the right hemisphere lingual gyrus, varied significantly as a function of tool position, increasing contralaterally, and decreasing ipsilaterally to the tool. Furthermore, these modulations occurred despite the fact that participants were repeatedly instructed to ignore the visual stimuli, to respond only to the vibrotactile stimuli, and to maintain visual fixation centrally. In addition, the magnitude of multisensory (visual-vibrotactile) interactions in participants' behavioural responses significantly predicted the BOLD response in occipital cortical areas that were also modulated as a function of both visual stimulus position and tool position. Conclusions/Significance: These results show that using a simple tool to locate and to perceive vibrotactile stimuli is accompanied by a shift of spatial attention to the location where the functional part of the tool is used, resulting in enhanced processing of visual stimuli at that location, and decreased processing at other locations. This was most clearly observed in the right hemisphere lingual gyrus. Such modulations of visual processing may reflect the functional importance of visuospatial information during human tool use

An extratropical cyclone database: A tool for illustrating cyclone structure and evolution characteristics

Extratropical cyclone lifecycles have been studied extensively with the aim of understanding the dynamical mechanisms involved in their development. Previous work has often been based on subjective analysis of individual case studies. Such case studies have contributed heavily to the generation of conceptual models of extratropical cyclones that provide a framework for understanding the dynamical evolution of cyclones. These conceptual models are widely used in educational meteorology courses throughout the world to illustrate the basic structure and evolution of extratropical cyclones. This article presents a database of extratropical cyclone composites which highlight the average structure and evolution of 20 years of extratropical cyclones, as opposed to individual case studies. The composite fields are achieved by combining a database containing cyclone tracks from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2009, 6 hourly) with the full 3D ERA-Interim reanalysis fields. Vertical and horizontal composites of cyclone structure for cyclones generated in the Atlantic and Pacific regions identifying features such as the relative positions of cold, warm and occluded fronts and their associated wind and cloud patterns are shown. In addition the evolution of cyclonic flows such as the warm and cold conveyor belts and dry intrusion are illustrated. A webpage containing an archive of the composited data is freely available for educational purposes.

The Köppen climate classification as a diagnostic tool for general circulation models

Koppen climate classification was applied to the output of atmospheric general circulation models and coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The classification was used to validate model control runs of the present climate and to analyse greenhouse gas warming simulations The most prominent results of the global warming con~putationsw ere a retreat of regions of permafrost and the increase of areas with tropical rainy climates and dry climates.

The Empirical Forcing Function as a tool for the diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric anomalies

The time-mean quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equation of the atmospheric flow on isobaric surfaces can explicitly include an atmospheric (internal) forcing term of the stationary-eddy flow. In fact, neglecting some non-linear terms in this equation, this forcing can be mathematically expressed as a single function, called Empirical Forcing Function (EFF), which is equal to the material derivative of the time-mean potential vorticity. Furthermore, the EFF can be decomposed as a sum of seven components, each one representing a forcing mechanism of different nature. These mechanisms include diabatic components associated with the radiative forcing, latent heat release and frictional dissipation, and components related to transient eddy transports of heat and momentum. All these factors quantify the role of the transient eddies in forcing the atmospheric circulation. In order to assess the relevance of the EFF in diagnosing large-scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation, the relationship between the EFF and the occurrence of strong North Atlantic ridges over the Eastern North Atlantic is analyzed, which are often precursors of severe droughts over Western Iberia. For such events, the EFF pattern depicts a clear dipolar structure over the North Atlantic; cyclonic (anticyclonic) forcing of potential vorticity is found upstream (downstream) of the anomalously strong ridges. Results also show that the most significant components are related to the diabatic processes. Lastly, these results highlight the relevance of the EFF in diagnosing large-scale anomalies, also providing some insight into their interaction with different physical mechanisms.

DK-1D: a drift-kinetic simulation tool for modelling the shear Alfvén wave and its interaction with collisionless plasma

We present a highly accurate tool for the simulation of shear Alfven waves (SAW) in collisionless plasma. SAW are important in space plasma environments because for small perpendicular scale lengths they can support an electric field parallel to the ambient magnetic field. Electrons can be accelerated by the parallel electric field and these waves have been implicated as the source of vibrant auroral displays. However, the parallel electric field carried by SAW is small in comparison to the perpendicular electric field of the wave, making it difficult to measure directly in the laboratory, or by satellites in the near-Earth plasma environment. In this paper, we present a simulation code that provides a means to study in detail the SAW-particle interaction in both space and laboratory plasma. Using idealised, small-amplitude propagating waves with a single perpendicular wavenumber, the simulation code accurately reproduces the damping rates and parallel electric field amplitudes predicted by linear theory for varying temperatures and perpendicular scale lengths. We present a rigorous kinetic derivation of the parallel electric field strength for small-amplitude SAW and show that commonly-used inertial and kinetic approximations are valid except for where the ratio of thermal to Alfv\'{e}n speed is between 0.7 and 1.0. We also present nonlinear simulations of large-amplitude waves and show that in cases of strong damping, the damping rates and parallel electric field strength deviate from linear predictions when wave energies are greater than only a few percent of the plasma kinetic energy, a situation which is often observed in the magnetosphere. The drift-kinetic code provides reliable, testable predictions of the parallel electric field strength which can be investigated directly in the laboratory, and will help to bridge the gap between studies of SAW in man-made and naturally occuring plasma.

High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis is an efficient tool to genotype EMS mutants in complex crop genomes

Background: Targeted Induced Loci Lesions IN Genomes (TILLING) is increasingly being used to generate and identify mutations in target genes of crop genomes. TILLING populations of several thousand lines have been generated in a number of crop species including Brassica rapa. Genetic analysis of mutants identified by TILLING requires an efficient, high-throughput and cost effective genotyping method to track the mutations through numerous generations. High resolution melt (HRM) analysis has been used in a number of systems to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion/deletions (IN/DELs) enabling the genotyping of different types of samples. HRM is ideally suited to high-throughput genotyping of multiple TILLING mutants in complex crop genomes. To date it has been used to identify mutants and genotype single mutations. The aim of this study was to determine if HRM can facilitate downstream analysis of multiple mutant lines identified by TILLING in order to characterise allelic series of EMS induced mutations in target genes across a number of generations in complex crop genomes. Results: We demonstrate that HRM can be used to genotype allelic series of mutations in two genes, BraA.CAX1a and BraA.MET1.a in Brassica rapa. We analysed 12 mutations in BraA.CAX1.a and five in BraA.MET1.a over two generations including a back-cross to the wild-type. Using a commercially available HRM kit and the Lightscanner™ system we were able to detect mutations in heterozygous and homozygous states for both genes. Conclusions: Using HRM genotyping on TILLING derived mutants, it is possible to generate an allelic series of mutations within multiple target genes rapidly. Lines suitable for phenotypic analysis can be isolated approximately 8-9 months (3 generations) from receiving M3 seed of Brassica rapa from the RevGenUK TILLING service.

Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa

How effective are multi-stakeholder scenarios building processes to bring diverse actors together and create a policy-making tool to support sustainable development and promote food security in the developing world under climate change? The effectiveness of a participatory scenario development process highlights the importance of ‘boundary work’ that links actors and organizations involved in generating knowledge on the one hand, and practitioners and policymakers who take actions based on that knowledge on the other. This study reports on the application of criteria for effective boundary work to a multi-stakeholder scenarios process in East Africa that brought together a range of regional agriculture and food systems actors. This analysis has enabled us to evaluate the extent to which these scenarios were seen by the different actors as credible, legitimate and salient, and thus more likely to be useful. The analysis has shown gaps and opportunities for improvement on these criteria, such as the quantification of scenarios, attention to translating and communicating the results through various channels and new approaches to enable a more inclusive and diverse group of participants. We conclude that applying boundary work criteria to multi-stakeholder scenarios processes can do much to increase the likelihood of developing sustainable development and food security policies that are more appropriate.

The influence of a decision support tool on real estate valuations

An appraisal task involves the rendering of market value, an unobservable and hypothetical construct. Direct feedback against this objective is typically not possible, so alternative feedback such as confirmation of previous appraised values may be employed. This may alter the appraiser’s perception of the valuation objective leading to divergence from the appraisal normative model. The real estate literature suggests appraisers have been susceptible to the influence of previous appraised values, often resulting in biased valuations. This research focuses on the efficacy of a decision support tool in eliminating or subduing this bias in the appraisal process.

An environmental uncertainty-based diagnostic reference tool for evaluating the performance of supply chain value streams

This research has responded to the need for diagnostic reference tools explicitly linking the influence of environmental uncertainty and performance within the supply chain. Uncertainty is a key factor influencing performance and an important measure of the operating environment. We develop and demonstrate a novel reference methodology based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) for examining the performance of value streams within the supply chain with specific reference to the level of environmental uncertainty they face. In this paper, using real industrial data, 20 product supply value streams within the European automotive industry sector are evaluated. Two are found to be efficient. The peer reference groups for the underperforming value streams are identified and numerical improvement targets are derived. The paper demonstrates how DEA can be used to guide supply chain improvement efforts through role-model identification and target setting, in a way that recognises the multiple dimensions/outcomes of the supply chain process and the influence of its environmental conditions. We have facilitated the contextualisation of environmental uncertainty and its incorporation into a specific diagnostic reference tool.

Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

An analysis of UK policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool

This paper introduces a new agent-based model, which incorporates the actions of individual homeowners in a long-term domestic stock model, and details how it was applied in energy policy analysis. The results indicate that current policies are likely to fall significantly short of the 80% target and suggest that current subsidy levels need re-examining. In the model, current subsidy levels appear to offer too much support to some technologies, which in turn leads to the suppression of other technologies that have a greater energy saving potential. The model can be used by policy makers to develop further scenarios to find alternative, more effective, sets of policy measures. The model is currently limited to the owner-occupied stock in England, although it can be expanded, subject to the availability of data.