Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.

Changes in frost frequency and desert vegetation assemblages in Grand Canyon, Arizona

The effect of decreasing frost frequency on desert vegetation was documented in Grand Canyon by replication of historical photographs. Although views by numerous photographers of Grand Canyon have been examined, 400 Robert Brewster Stanton and Franklin A. Nims views taken in the winter of 1889-1890 provide the best information on recent plant distribution. In Grand Canyon, where grazing is limited by the rugged topography, vegetation dynamics are controlled by climate and by demographic processes such as seed productivity, recruitment, longevity and mortality. The replicated photographs show distribution and abundance of several species were limited by severe frost before 1889. Two of these, brittlebush (Encelia farinosa) and barrel cactus (Ferocactus cylindraceus), have clearly expanded their ranges up-canyon and have increased their densities at sites where they were present in 1890. In 1890, brittlebush was present in warm microhabitats that provided refugia from frost damage. Views showing desert vegetation in 1923 indicate that Encelia expanded rapidly to near its current distribution between 1890 and 1923, whereas the expansion of Ferocactus occurred more slowly. The higher frequency of frost was probably related to an anomalous increase in winter storms between 1878 (and possibly 1862) and 1891 in the southwestern United States.