Half the burden of fragility fractures in the community occur in women without osteoporosis. When is fracture prevention cost-effective?

To determine the age- and BMD-specific burden of fractures in the community and the cost-effectiveness of targeted drug therapy, we studied a demographically well-categorized population with a single main health provider. Of 1224 women over 50 years of age sustaining fractures during 2 years, the distribution of all fractures was 11%, 20%, 33%, and 36% in those aged 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, and 80+ years, respectively. Osteoporosis (T score < −2.5) was present in 20%, 46%, 59%, and 69% in the respective age groups. Based on this sample and census data for the whole country, treating all women over 50 years of age in Australia with a drug that halves fracture risk in osteoporotic women and reduces fractures in those without osteoporosis by 20%, was estimated to prevent 18,000 or 36% of the 50,000 fractures per year at a total cost of $573 million (AUD). Screening using a bone mineral density of T score of −2.5 as a cutoff, misses 80%, 54%, 41%, and 31% of fractures in women in the respective age groups. An analysis of cost per averted fracture by age group suggests that treating women in the 50- to 59-year age group with osteoporosis alone costs $156,400 per averted fracture. However, in women aged over 80 years, the cost per averted fracture is $28,500. We infer that treating all women over 50 years of age is not feasible. Using osteoporosis and age (>60 years) as criteria for intervention reduces the population burden of fractures by 28% and is cost-effective but solutions to the prevention of the remaining 72% of fragility fractures remain unavailable.

Development and validation of the Diet Quality Tool for use in cardiovascular disease prevention settings

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a dietary screening tool for use in a secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention setting to identify an individual’s overall dietary quality. The Diet Quality Tool (DQT) was validated against a 4-day food diary for 37 individuals with established CVD attending cardiac rehabilitation. Construct validity was demonstrated for % energy from saturated fat (P = 0.002, r = –0.500), dietary fibre (P < 0.001, r = 0.559) and omega-3 fatty acids (P = 0.048, r = 0.327). Criterion validity was established with a significant difference found between mean (95% CI) dietary intakes of fibre (28.2 g, 4.4 to 17.3) and % total energy from saturated fat (10.6%, –4.8 to –0.8) for those with better DQT scores (>60%) versus those with poorer scores (≤60%) when compared with 4-day food diary nutrient values. The usefulness of the DQT was confirmed by both patients (n = 25) and cardiac rehabilitation health professionals (n = 8). The DQT was found to be a valid and useful dietary assessment tool with potential for use in a secondary CVD prevention setting. The tool has the capacity to be used in a wider variety of settings and further refinement of the tool would enable a greater amount of nutrients to be reliably screened.

The role of reducing intakes of saturated fat in the prevention of cardiovascular disease : where does the evidence stand in 2010?

Current dietary recommendations advise reducing the intake of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but recent findings question the role of SFAs. This expert panel reviewed the evidence and reached the following conclusions: the evidence from epidemiologic, clinical, and mechanistic studies is consistent in finding that the risk of CHD is reduced when SFAs are replaced with polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). In populations who consume a Western diet, the replacement of 1% of energy from SFAs with PUFAs lowers LDL cholesterol and is likely to produce a reduction in CHD incidence of >2–3%. No clear benefit of substituting carbohydrates for SFAs has been shown, although there might be a benefit if the carbohydrate is unrefined and has a low glycemic index. Insufficient evidence exists to judge the effect on CHD risk of replacing SFAs with MUFAs. No clear association between SFA intake relative to refined carbohydrates and the risk of insulin resistance and diabetes has been shown. The effect of diet on a single biomarker is insufficient evidence to assess CHD risk. The combination of multiple biomarkers and the use of clinical endpoints could help substantiate the effects on CHD. Furthermore, the effect of particular foods on CHD cannot be predicted solely by their content of total SFAs because individual SFAs may have different cardiovascular effects and major SFA food sources contain other constituents that could influence CHD risk. Research is needed to clarify the role of SFAs compared with specific forms of carbohydrates in CHD risk and to compare specific foods with appropriate alternatives.

Predicting changes in lifestyle and clinical outcomes in preventing diabetes : The Greater Green Triangle Diabetes Prevention Project

Objectives : To analyse how psychosocial determinants of lifestyle changes targeted in the Greater Green Triangle Diabetes Prevention Project conducted in Southeast Australia in 2004–2006 predict changes in dietary behaviour and clinical risk factors.

Methods : A longitudinal pre-test and post-test study design was used. The group program was completed by 237 people at high risk of type 2 diabetes. Associations between changes in the variables were examined by structural equation modelling using a path model in which changes in psychological determinants for lifestyle predicted changes in dietary behaviours (fat and fibre intake), which subsequently predicted changes in waist circumference and other clinical outcomes. Standardised regression weights are presented, with β = ± 0.1 and β = ± 0.3 representing small and medium associations, respectively.

Results : Improvements in coping self-efficacy and planning predicted improvements in fat (β = − 0.15, p < 0.05 and β = − 0.32, p < 0.001, respectively) and fibre intake (β = 0.15, p < 0.05 and β = 0.23, p < 0.001, respectively) which in turn predicted improvements in waist circumference (β = 0.18, p < 0.01 and β = − 0.16, p < 0.05, respectively). Improvements in waist circumference predicted improvements in diastolic blood pressure (β = 0.13, p < 0.05), HDL (β = − 0.16, p < 0.05), triglycerides (β = 0.17, p < 0.01), and fasting glucose (β = 0.15, p < 0.05).

Conclusions : Psychological changes predicted behaviour changes, resulting in 12-month biophysical changes. The findings support the theoretical basis of the interventions.

The importance of long-term follow-up in child and adolescent obesity prevention interventions

Pediatric overweight and obesity continues to be a major public health concern. Once established it is diffi cult to treat; therefore well-designed and evaluated prevention interventions are vitally important. There is considerable evidence to suggest that obesity prevention initiatives can change children ’ s behaviours and weight status over the short- or mediumterm; however, there is far less evidence on which to judge the impact over the longer term. In response to the rise in short- and medium-term obesity prevention studies for children and adolescents over recent years, the Prevention Stream of the Australasian Child and Adolescent Obesity Research Network highlight fi ve points as to why the dearth of obesity prevention studies with long-term follow-up should be urgently addressed. Furthermore, recommendations to strengthen the evidence base and outline key implications for research design in this area and the support required for long-term follow-up studies are detailed.

The effects of testing procedure on critical fall height determination for third-generation synthetic turf

Test procedures and their accuracy in determining critical fall height (CFH) on sporting grounds are paramount to player safety. The procedure currently adopted for synthetic turf in Australian football [1] consists of four consecutive drops at various drop heights at three test locations on the sample. The quantity and packing of the infill in third-generation turf and the pooling effect of the rubber particles with consecutive drops suggests that the current standard protocol may need re-assessment. Therefore, the purpose of this pilot study was to investigate whether current methods of testing for CFH are appropriate for third-generation synthetic turf or whether an alternative or adapted method needs to be developed. CFH was measured, using a HISUN Uniaxe-II Impact Tester, on 12 combinations of synthetic turf samples (four different products with three shock pad options). Three conditions were investigated on each sample; the existing protocol; an alternative 12 single-drop protocol and four single drops from the CFH determined from the existing protocol. A significant difference was found for both absolute and percentage difference between the existing and 12 single-drop protocol, with p = 0.001 and t = 4.33 and p < 0.001 and t = 6.03, respectively. There was also a significant difference between the CFH reached with and without a shock pad for both the existing protocol and the 12 single-drop protocol. The results of this pilot study demonstrate that differences do occur with alterations to the existing protocol and highlight the need for a more detailed characterisation of testing methods on third-generation synthetic turf and the response of surfaces to them.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term.

Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year.

Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand.

Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

What is the optimal level of population alcohol consumption for chronic disease prevention in England? Modelling the impact of changes in average consumption levels

Objective To estimate the impact of achieving alternative average population alcohol consumption levels on chronic disease mortality in England.

Design A macro-simulation model was built to simultaneously estimate the number of deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertensive disease, diabetes, liver cirrhosis, epilepsy and five cancers that would be averted or delayed annually as a result of changes in alcohol consumption among English adults. Counterfactual scenarios assessed the impact on alcohol-related mortalities of changing (1) the median alcohol consumption of drinkers and (2) the percentage of non-drinkers.

Data sources Risk relationships were drawn from published meta-analyses. Age- and sex-specific distributions of alcohol consumption (grams per day) for the English population in 2006 were drawn from the General Household Survey 2006, and age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality data for 2006 were provided by the Office for National Statistics.

Results The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year. Approximately equal numbers of deaths from cancers and liver disease would be delayed or averted (∼2800 for each), while there was a small increase in cardiovascular mortality. The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.

Conclusions Current government recommendations for alcohol consumption are well above the level likely to minimise chronic disease. Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.