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Obesity has been posited as an independent risk factor for diabetic kidney disease (DKD), but establishing causality from observational data is problematic. We aimed to test whether obesity is causally related to DKD using Mendelian randomization, which exploits the random assortment of genes during meiosis. In 6,049 subjects with type 1 diabetes, we used a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 32 validated BMI loci as an instrument to test the relationship of BMI with macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or DKD defined as presence of macroalbuminuria or ESRD. We compared these results with cross-sectional and longitudinal observational associations. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a U-shaped relationship of BMI with development of macroalbuminuria, ESRD, or DKD over time. Cross-sectional observational analysis showed no association with overall DKD, higher odds of macroalbuminuria (for every 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI, odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001), and lower odds of ESRD (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97, P < 0.001). Mendelian randomization analysis showed a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI conferring an increased risk in macroalbuminuria (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.45, P = 0.001), ESRD (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.72, P < 0.001), and DKD (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.51, P < 0.001). Our results provide genetic evidence for a causal link between obesity and DKD in type 1 diabetes. As obesity prevalence rises, this finding predicts an increase in DKD prevalence unless intervention should occur.

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Introduction
Despite excellent first year outcomes in kidney transplantation, there remain significant long-term complications related to new-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT). The purpose of this study was to validate the findings of previous investigations of candidate gene variants in patients undergoing a protocolised, contemporary immunosuppression regimen, using detailed serial biochemical testing to identify NODAT development.

Methods
One hundred twelve live and deceased donor renal transplant recipients were prospectively followed-up for NODAT onset, biochemical testing at days 7, 90, and 365 after transplantation. Sixty-eight patients were included after exclusion for non-white ethnicity and pre-transplant diabetes. Literature review to identify candidate gene variants was undertaken as described previously.

Results
Over 25% of patients developed NODAT. In an adjusted model for age, sex, BMI, and BMI change over 12 months, five out of the studied 37 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were significantly associated with NODAT: rs16936667:PRDM14 OR 10.57;95% CI 1.8–63.0;p = 0.01, rs1801282:PPARG OR 8.5; 95% CI 1.4–52.7; p = 0.02, rs8192678:PPARGC1A OR 0.26; 95% CI 0.08–0.91; p = 0.03, rs2144908:HNF4A OR 7.0; 95% CI 1.1–45.0;p = 0.04 and rs2340721:ATF6 OR 0.21; 95%CI 0.04–1.0; p = 0.05.

Conclusion
This study represents a replication study of candidate SNPs associated with developing NODAT and implicates mTOR as the central regulator via altered insulin sensitivity, pancreatic β cell, and mitochondrial survival and dysfunction as evidenced by the five SNPs.

General significance
1) Highlights the importance of careful biochemical phenotyping with oral glucose tolerance tests to diagnose NODAT in reducing time to diagnosis and missed cases.
2)This alters potential genotype:phenotype association.
3)The replication study generates the hypothesis that mTOR signalling pathway may be involved in NODAT development.