Comparing population attributable risks for heart disease across the adult lifespan in women

Background Recent estimates suggest that high body mass index (BMI), smoking, high blood pressure (BP) and physical inactivity are leading risk factors for the overall burden of disease in Australia. The aim was to examine the population attributable risk (PAR) of heart disease for each of these risk factors, across the adult lifespan in Australian women. Methods PARs were estimated using relative risks (RRs) for each of the four risk factors, as used in the Global Burden of Disease Study, and prevalence estimates from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, in 15 age groups from 22–27 (N=9608) to 85–90 (N=3901). Results RRs and prevalence estimates varied across the lifespan. RRs ranged from 6.15 for smoking in the younger women to 1.20 for high BMI and high BP in the older women. Prevalence of risk exposure ranged from 2% for high BP in the younger women to 79% for high BMI in mid-age women. In young adult women up to age 30, the highest population risk was attributed to smoking. From age 31 to 90, PARs were highest for physical inactivity. Conclusions From about age 30, the population risk of heart disease attributable to inactivity outweighs that of other risk factors, including high BMI. Programmes for the promotion and maintenance of physical activity deserve to be a much higher public health priority for women than they are now, across the adult lifespan.

Past-day recall of sedentary time: Validity of a self-reported measure of sedentary time in a university population

Background Sedentary behaviour is associated with several deleterious health consequences. Although device-based measures of sedentary time are available, they are costly and do not provide a measure of domain specific sedentary time. High quality self-report measures are necessary to accurately capture domain specific sedentary time, and to provide an alternative to devices when cost is an issue. In this study, the Past-day Adults’ Sedentary Time (PAST) questionnaire, previously shown to have acceptable validity and reliability in a sample of breast cancer survivors, was modified for a university sample and validity of the modified questionnaire was examined compared with activPAL. Methods Participants (n = 58, age = 18–55 years, 48% female, 66% students) were recruited from the University of Queensland (students and staff). They answered the PAST questionnaire, which asked about time spent sitting or lying down for work, study, travel, television viewing, leisure-time computer use, reading, eating, socialising and other purposes, during the previous day. Time reported for these questions was summed to provide a measure of total sedentary time. Participants also wore an activPAL device for the full day prior to completing the questionnaire and recorded their wake and sleep times in an activity log. Total waking sedentary time derived from the activPAL was used as the criterion measure. Correlation (Pearson's r) and agreement (Bland–Altman plots) between PAST and activPAL sedentary time were examined. Results Participants were sedentary (activPAL-determined) for approximately 66% of waking hours. The correlation between PAST and activPAL sedentary time for the whole sample was r = 0.50 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.28–0.67]; and higher for non-students (r = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.26–0.84) than students (r = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.16–0.68). Bland–Altman plots revealed that the mean difference between the two measures was 19 min although limits of agreement were wide (95% limits of agreement −4.1 to 4.7 h). Discussion The PAST questionnaire provides an acceptable measure of sedentary time in this population, which included students and adults with high workplace sitting. These findings support earlier research that questionnaires employing past-day recall of sedentary time provide a viable alternative to existing sedentary behaviour questionnaires.

Managing glyphosate resistance in Australian cotton farming: modelling shows how to delay evolution and maintain long-term population control

Glyphosate resistance is a rapidly developing threat to profitability in Australian cotton farming. Resistance causes an immediate reduction in the effectiveness of in-crop weed control in glyphosate-resistant transgenic cotton and summer fallows. Although strategies for delaying glyphosate resistance and those for managing resistant populations are qualitatively similar, the longer resistance can be delayed, the longer cotton growers will have choice over which tactics to apply and when to apply them. Effective strategies to avoid, delay, and manage resistance are thus of substantial value. We used a model of glyphosate resistance dynamics to perform simulations of resistance evolution in Sonchus oleraceus (common sowthistle) and Echinochloa colona (awnless barnyard grass) under a range of resistance prevention, delaying, and management strategies. From these simulations, we identified several elements that could contribute to effective glyphosate resistance prevention and management strategies. (i) Controlling glyphosate survivors is the most robust approach to delaying or preventing resistance. High-efficacy, high-frequency survivor control almost doubled the useful lifespan of glyphosate from 13 to 25 years even with glyphosate alone used in summer fallows. (ii) Two non-glyphosate tactics in-crop plus two in-summer fallows is the minimum intervention required for long-term delays in resistance evolution. (iii) Pre-emergence herbicides are important, but should be backed up with non-glyphosate knockdowns and strategic tillage; replacing a late-season, pre-emergence herbicide with inter-row tillage was predicted to delay glyphosate resistance by 4 years in awnless barnyard grass. (iv) Weed species' ecological characteristics, particularly seed bank dynamics, have an impact on the effectiveness of resistance strategies; S. oleraceus, because of its propensity to emerge year-round, was less exposed to selection with glyphosate than E. colona, resulting in an extra 5 years of glyphosate usefulness (18 v. 13 years) even in the most rapid cases of resistance evolution. Delaying tactics are thus available that can provide some or many years of continued glyphosate efficacy. If glyphosate-resistant cotton cropping is to remain profitable in Australian farming systems in the long-term, however, growers must adapt to the probability that they will have to deal with summer weeds that are no longer susceptible to glyphosate. Robust resistance management systems will need to include a diversity of weed control options, used appropriately.

Recrudescent Infection Supports Hendra Virus Persistence in Australian Flying-Fox Populations

Zoonoses from wildlife threaten global public health. Hendra virus is one of several zoonotic viral diseases that have recently emerged from Pteropus species fruit-bats (flying-foxes). Most hypotheses regarding persistence of Hendra virus within flying-fox populations emphasize horizontal transmission within local populations (colonies) via urine and other secretions, and transmission among colonies via migration. As an alternative hypothesis, we explore the role of recrudescence in persistence of Hendra virus in flying-fox populations via computer simulation using a model that integrates published information on the ecology of flying-foxes, and the ecology and epidemiology of Hendra virus. Simulated infection patterns agree with infection patterns observed in the field and suggest that Hendra virus could be maintained in an isolated flying-fox population indefinitely via periodic recrudescence in a manner indistinguishable from maintenance via periodic immigration of infected individuals. Further, post-recrudescence pulses of infectious flying-foxes provide a plausible basis for the observed seasonal clustering of equine cases. Correct understanding of the infection dynamics of Hendra virus in flying-foxes is fundamental to effectively managing risk of infection in horses and humans. Given the lack of clear empirical evidence on how the virus is maintained within populations, the role of recrudescence merits increased attention.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February-April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November-January) for the Zululand site and spring (August-October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Considering gambling involvement in the understanding of problem gambling: A large cross-sectional study of an Australian population

Instead of regarding a particular type of gambling activity (for example, electronic gambling machines, table games) as an isolated factor for problem gambling, recent research suggests that gambling involvement (for example, as measured by the number of different types of gambling activities played) should also be considered. Using a large sample of the Victorian adult population, this study found that the strength of association between problem gambling and the type of gambling reduced after adjusting for gambling involvement. This finding supports recent research that gambling involvement is an important factor in assessing the risk of problem gambling. The study also provides insights into the measurements of gambling involvement and provides alternative statistical modelling to analyse problem gambling.

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

Ecology, Behaviour and Control of Apis cerana with a Focus on Relevance to the Australian Incursion

Apis cerana Fabricius is endemic to most of Asia, where it has been used for honey production and pollination services for thousands of years. Since the 1980s, A. cerana has been introduced to areas outside its natural range (namely New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Australia), which sparked fears that it may become a pest species that could compete with, and negatively affect, native Australian fauna and flora, as well as commercially kept A. mellifera and commercial crops. This literature review is a response to these concerns and reviews what is known about the ecology and behaviour of A. cerana. Differences between temperate and tropical strains of A. cerana are reviewed, as are A. cerana pollination, competition between A. cerana and A. mellifera, and the impact and control strategies of introduced A. cerana, with a particular focus on gaps of current knowledge.

Impacts of level of utilisation by grazing on an Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grassland in north-western Queensland between 1984 and 2010. 1. Herbage mass and population dynamics of Astrebla spp

Managing large variations in herbage production, resulting from highly variable seasonal rainfall, provides a major challenge for the sustainable management of Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grasslands in Australia. A grazing study with sheep was conducted between 1984 and 2010 on an Astrebla grassland in northern Queensland to describe the effects of a range of levels of utilisation of the herbage at the end of the summer growing season (April–May in northern Australia) on the sustainability of these grasslands. In unreplicated paddocks, sheep numbers were adjusted annually to achieve 0, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 80% utilisation of the herbage mass at the end of the summer over the ensuing 12 months. Higher levels of utilisation reduced both total and Astrebla spp. herbage mass because of the effects of higher utilisation on Astrebla spp. and this effect was accentuated by drought. The tussock density of Astrebla spp. varied widely among years but with few treatment differences until 2005 when density was reduced at the 50% level of utilisation. A major change in density resulted from a large recruitment of Astrebla spp. in 1989 that influenced its density for the remainder of the study. Basal area of the tussocks fluctuated among years, with increases due to rainfall and decreases during droughts. Seasonal rainfall was more influential than level of utilisation in changes to the basal area of perennial grasses. Drought resulted in the death of Astrebla spp. tussocks and this effect was accentuated at higher levels of utilisation. A series of three grazing exclosures were used to examine the recovery of the density and basal area of Astrebla spp. after it had been reduced by 80% utilisation over the preceding 9 years. This recovery study indicated that, although grazing exclusion was useful in the recovery of Astrebla spp., above-average rainfall was the major factor driving increases in the basal area of perennial grasses. Spring values of the Southern Oscillation Index and associated rainfall probabilities were considered to have potential for understanding the dynamics of Astrebla spp. It was concluded that Astrebla grassland remained sustainable after 26 years when grazed at up to 30% utilisation, while, at 50% utilisation, they became unsustainable after 20 years. Results from this study emphasised the need to maintain the population of Astrebla spp. tussocks.

Impacts on nontarget avian species from aerial meat baiting for feral pigs

Bait containing sodium fluoroacetate (1080) is widely used for the routine control of feral pigs in Australia. In Queensland, meat baits are popular in western and northern pastoral areas where they are readily accepted by feral pigs and can be distributed aerially. Field studies have indicated some levels of interference and consumption of baits by nontarget species and, based on toxicity data and the 1080 content of baits, many nontarget species (particularly birds and varanids) are potentially at risk through primary poisoning. While occasional deaths of species have been recorded, it remains unclear whether the level of mortality is sufficient to threaten the viability or ecological function of species. A series of field trials at Culgoa National Park in south-western Queensland was conducted to determine the effect of broadscale aerial baiting (1.7 baits per km2) on the density of nontarget avian species that may consume baits. Counts of susceptible bird species were conducted prior to and following aerial baiting, and on three nearby unbaited properties, in May and November 2011, and May 2012. A sample of baits was monitored with remote cameras in the November 2011 and May 2012 trials. Over the three baiting campaigns, there was no evidence of a population-level decline among the seven avian nontarget species that were monitored. Thirty per cent and 15% of baits monitored by remote cameras in the November 2011 and May 2012 trials were sampled by birds, varanids or other reptiles. These results support the continued use of 1080 meat baits for feral pig management in western Queensland and similar environs.

Does lethal control of top-predators release mesopredators? A re-evaluation of three Australian case studies

Top-predators can sometimes be important for structuring fauna assemblages in terrestrial ecosystems. Through a complex trophic cascade, the lethal control of top-predators has been predicted to elicit positive population responses from mesopredators that may in turn increase predation pressure on prey species of concern. In support of this hypothesis, many relevant research papers, opinion pieces and literature reviews identify three particular case studies as supporting evidence for top-predator control-induced release of mesopredators in Australia. However, many fundamental details essential for supporting this hypothesis are missing from these case studies, which were each designed to investigate alternative aims. Here, we re-evaluate the strength of evidence for top-predator control-induced mesopredator release from these three studies after comprehensive analyses of associated unpublished correlative and experimental data. Circumstantial evidence alluded to mesopredator releases of either the European Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) or feral Cat (Felis catus) coinciding with Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) control in each case. Importantly, however, substantial limitations in predator population sampling techniques and/or experimental designs preclude strong assertions about the effect of lethal control on mesopredator populations from these studies. In all cases, multiple confounding factors and plausible alternative explanations for observed changes in predator populations exist. In accord with several critical reviews and a growing body of demonstrated experimental evidence on the subject, we conclude that there is an absence of reliable evidence for top-predator control-induced mesopredator release from these three case studies. Well-designed and executed studies are critical for investigating potential top-predator control-induced mesopredator release.

Proportion of Jews to general population of the European provinces of Russia

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Population density of the European provinces of Russia

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Isotopic records of terrestrial ice age environments in mammoth bioapatite

Palaeoenvironments of the latter half of the Weichselian ice age and the transition to the Holocene, from ca. 52 to 4 ka, were investigated using isotopic analysis of oxygen, carbon and strontium in mammal skeletal apatite. The study material consisted predominantly of subfossil bones and teeth of the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius Blumenbach), collected from Europe and Wrangel Island, northeastern Siberia. All samples have been radiocarbon dated, and their ages range from >52 ka to 4 ka. Altogether, 100 specimens were sampled for the isotopic work. In Europe, the studies focused on the glacial palaeoclimate and habitat palaeoecology. To minimise the influence of possible diagenetic effects, the palaeoclimatological and ecological reconstructions were based on the enamel samples only. The results of the oxygen isotope analysis of mammoth enamel phosphate from Finland and adjacent nortwestern Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Denmark and Sweden provide the first estimate of oxygen isotope values in glacial precipitation in northern Europe. The glacial precipitation oxygen isotope values range from ca. -9.2±1.5 in western Denmark to -15.3 in Kirillov, northwestern Russia. These values are 0.6-4.1 lower than those in present-day precipitation, with the largest changes recorded in the currently marine influenced southern Sweden and the Baltic region. The new enamel-derived oxygen isotope data from this study, combined with oxygen isotope records from earlier investigations on mammoth tooth enamel and palaeogroundwaters, facilitate a reconstruction of the spatial patterns of the oxygen isotope values of precipitation and palaeotemperatures over much of Europe. The reconstructed geographic pattern of oxygen isotope levels in precipitation during 52-24 ka reflects the progressive isotopic depletion of air masses moving northeast, consistent with a westerly source of moisture for the entire region, and a circulation pattern similar to that of the present-day. The application of regionally varied δ/T-slopes, estimated from palaeogroundwater data and modern spatial correlations, yield reasonable estimates of glacial surface temperatures in Europe and imply 2-9°C lower long-term mean annual surface temperatures during the glacial period. The isotopic composition of carbon in the enamel samples indicates a pure C3 diet for the European mammoths, in agreement with previous investigations of mammoth ecology. A faint geographical gradient in the carbon isotope values of enamel is discernible, with more negative values in the northeast. The spatial trend is consistent with the climatic implications of the enamel oxygen isotope data, but may also suggest regional differences in habitat openness. The palaeogeographical changes caused by the eustatic rise of global sea level at the end of the Weichselian ice age was investigated on Wrangel Island, using the strontium isotope (Sr-87/Sr-86) ratios in the skeletal apatite of the local mammoth fauna. The diagenetic evaluations suggest good preservation of the original Sr isotope ratios, even in the bone specimens included in the study material. To estimate present-day environmental Sr isotope values on Wrangel Island, bioapatite samples from modern reindeer and muskoxen, as well as surface waters from rivers and ice wedges were analysed. A significant shift towards more radiogenic bioapatite Sr isotope ratios, from 0.71218 ± 0.00103 to 0.71491 ± 0.00138, marks the beginning of the Holocene. This implies a change in the migration patterns of the mammals, ultimately reflecting the inundation of the mainland connection and isolation of the population. The bioapatite Sr isotope data supports published coastline reconstructions placing the time of separation from the mainland to ca. 10-10.5 ka ago. The shift towards more radiogenic Sr isotope values in mid-Holocene subfossil remains after 8 ka ago reflects the rapid rise of the sea level from 10 to 8 ka, resulting in a considerable reduction of the accessible range area on the early Wrangel Island.