An observer-based vaccination control law for an SEIR epidemic model based on feedback linearization techniques for nonlinear systems

This paper presents a vaccination strategy for fighting against the propagation of epidemic diseases. The disease propagation is described by an SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) epidemic model. The model takes into account the total population amounts as a refrain for the illness transmission since its increase makes the contacts among susceptible and infected more difficult. The vaccination strategy is based on a continuous-time nonlinear control law synthesised via an exact feedback input-output linearization approach. An observer is incorporated into the control scheme to provide online estimates for the susceptible and infected populations in the case when their values are not available from online measurement but they are necessary to implement the control law. The vaccination control is generated based on the information provided by the observer. The control objective is to asymptotically eradicate the infection from the population so that the removed-by-immunity population asymptotically tracks the whole one without precise knowledge of the partial populations. The model positivity, the eradication of the infection under feedback vaccination laws and the stability properties as well as the asymptotic convergence of the estimation errors to zero as time tends to infinity are investigated.

Early astrocytic atrophy in the entorhinal cortex of a triple transgenic animal model of Alzheimer's disease

The EC (entorhinal cortex) is fundamental for cognitive and mnesic functions. Thus damage to this area appears as a key element in the progression of AD (Alzheimer's disease), resulting in memory deficits arising from neuronal and synaptic alterations as well as glial malfunction. In this paper, we have performed an in-depth analysis of astroglial morphology in the EC by measuring the surface and volume of the GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein) profiles in a triple transgenic mouse model of AD [3xTg-AD (triple transgenic mice of AD)]. We found significant reduction in both the surface and volume of GFAP-labelled profiles in 3xTg-AD animals from very early ages (1 month) when compared with non-Tg (non-transgenic) controls (48 and 54%, reduction respectively), which was sustained for up to 12 months (33 and 45% reduction respectively). The appearance of Lambda beta (amyloid beta-peptide) depositions at 12 months of age did not trigger astroglial hypertrophy; nor did it result in the close association of astrocytes with senile plaques. Our results suggest that the AD progressive cognitive deterioration can be associated with an early reduction of astrocytic arborization and shrinkage of the astroglial domain, which may affect synaptic connectivity within the EC and between the EC and other brain regions. In addition, the EC seems to be particularly vulnerable to AD pathology because of the absence of evident astrogliosis in response to A beta accumulation. Thus we can consider that targeting astroglial atrophy may represent a therapeutic strategy which might slow down the progression of AD.

Microscopic Model Of Nano-Scale Particles Removal In High Pressure Co2-Based Solvents

A physical model is presented to describe the kinds of static forces responsible for adhesion of nano-scale copper metal particles to silicon surface with a fluid layer. To demonstrate the extent of particle cleaning, Received in revised form equilibrium separation distance (ESD) and net adhesion force (NAF) of a regulated metal particle with different radii (10-300 nm) on the silicon surface in CO2-based cleaning systems under different pressures were simulated. Generally, increasing the pressure of the cleaning system decreased the net adhesion force between spherical copper particle and silicon surface entrapped with medium. For CO2 + isopropanol cleaning system, the equilibrium separation distance exhibited a maximum at temperature 313.15 K in the Equilibrium separation distance regions of pressure space (1.84-8.02 MPa). When the dimension of copper particle was given, for example, High pressure 50 nm radius particles, the net adhesion force decreased and equilibrium separation distance increased with increased pressure in the CO2 + H2O cleaning system at temperature 348.15 K under 2.50-12.67 MPa pressure range. However, the net adhesion force and equilibrium separation distance both decreased with an increase in surfactant concentration at given pressure (27.6 or 27.5 MPa) and temperature (318 or 298 K) for CO2 + H2O with surfactant PFPE COO-NH4+ or DiF(8)-PO4-Na+. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of rainfall infiltration on deep slope failure

With the finite element method and the limit equilibrium method, a numerical model has been estab-lished for examining the effects of rainfall infiltration on the stability of slopes. This model is able to reflect the variations in pore water pressure field in slopes, dead weight of the soil, and soil softening caused by rainfall infiltration. As a case study, an actual landslide located at the Nongji Jixiao in Chongqing was studied to analyze the effects of rainfall infiltration on the seepage field and slope sta-bility. The simulated results showed that a deep slope failure is prone to occur when rainfall infiltration leads to a remarkable variation in the seepage field, especially when the pore water pressure in slopes increases in a large range.

Space-resolved spectral diagnosis of line-shaped laser-produced magnesium plasmas

Space-resolved spectra of line-shaped laser-produced magnesium plasmas in the normal direction of the target have been obtained using a pinhole crystal spectrograph. These spectra are treated by a spectrum analyzing code for obtaining the true spectra and fine structures of overlapped lines. The spatial distributions of electron temperature and density along the normal direction of the target surface have been obtained with different spectral diagnostic techniques. Especially, the electron density plateaus beyond the critical surface in line-shaped magnesium plasmas have been obtained with a fitting technique applied to the Stark-broadened Ly-alpha wings of hydrogenic ions. The difference of plasma parameters between those obtained by different diagnostic techniques is discussed. Other phenomena, such as plasma satellites, population inversion, etc., which are observed in magnesium plasmas, are also presented.

Part 1: Longitudinal static and dynamic effects in semiconductor lasers. Part II: Spectral characteristics of passively mode-locked quantum well lasers

In the first part of this thesis a study of the effect of the longitudinal distribution of optical intensity and electron density on the static and dynamic behavior of semiconductor lasers is performed. A static model for above threshold operation of a single mode laser, consisting of multiple active and passive sections, is developed by calculating the longitudinal optical intensity distribution and electron density distribution in a self-consistent manner. Feedback from an index and gain Bragg grating is included, as well as feedback from discrete reflections at interfaces and facets. Longitudinal spatial holeburning is analyzed by including the dependence of the gain and the refractive index on the electron density. The mechanisms of spatial holeburning in quarter wave shifted DFB lasers are analyzed. A new laser structure with a uniform optical intensity distribution is introduced and an implementation is simulated, resulting in a large reduction of the longitudinal spatial holeburning effect.

A dynamic small-signal model is then developed by including the optical intensity and electron density distribution, as well as the dependence of the grating coupling coefficients on the electron density. Expressions are derived for the intensity and frequency noise spectrum, the spontaneous emission rate into the lasing mode, the linewidth enhancement factor, and the AM and FM modulation response. Different chirp components are identified in the FM response, and a new adiabatic chirp component is discovered. This new adiabatic chirp component is caused by the nonuniform longitudinal distributions, and is found to dominate at low frequencies. Distributed feedback lasers with partial gain coupling are analyzed, and it is shown how the dependence of the grating coupling coefficients on the electron density can result in an enhancement of the differential gain with an associated enhancement in modulation bandwidth and a reduction in chirp.

In the second part, spectral characteristics of passively mode-locked two-section multiple quantum well laser coupled to an external cavity are studied. Broad-band wavelength tuning using an external grating is demonstrated for the first time in passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers. A record tuning range of 26 nm is measured, with pulse widths of typically a few picosecond and time-bandwidth products of more than 10 times the transform limit. It is then demonstrated that these large time-bandwidth products are due to a strong linear upchirp, by performing pulse compression by a factor of 15 to a record pulse widths as low 320 fs.

A model for pulse propagation through a saturable medium with self-phase-modulation, due to the a-parameter, is developed for quantum well material, including the frequency dependence of the gain medium. This model is used to simulate two-section devices coupled to an external cavity. When no self-phase-modulation is present, it is found that the pulses are asymmetric with a sharper rising edge, that the pulse tails have an exponential behavior, and that the transform limit is 0.3. Inclusion of self-phase-modulation results in a linear upchirp imprinted on the pulse after each round-trip. This linear upchirp is due to a combination of self-phase-modulation in a gain section and absorption of the leading edge of the pulse in the saturable absorber.

Asymptotic scaling in the two-dimensional O(3) Nonlinear sigma model: a Monte Carlo study on parallel computers

We investigate the 2d O(3) model with the standard action by Monte Carlo simulation at couplings β up to 2.05. We measure the energy density, mass gap and susceptibility of the model, and gather high statistics on lattices of size L ≤ 1024 using the Floating Point Systems T-series vector hypercube and the Thinking Machines Corp.'s Connection Machine 2. Asymptotic scaling does not appear to set in for this action, even at β = 2.10, where the correlation length is 420. We observe a 20% difference between our estimate m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.52(6) at this β and the recent exact analytical result . We use the overrelaxation algorithm interleaved with Metropolis updates and show that decorrelation time scales with the correlation length and the number of overrelaxation steps per sweep. We determine its effective dynamical critical exponent to be z' = 1.079(10); thus critical slowing down is reduced significantly for this local algorithm that is vectorizable and parallelizable.

We also use the cluster Monte Carlo algorithms, which are non-local Monte Carlo update schemes which can greatly increase the efficiency of computer simulations of spin models. The major computational task in these algorithms is connected component labeling, to identify clusters of connected sites on a lattice. We have devised some new SIMD component labeling algorithms, and implemented them on the Connection Machine. We investigate their performance when applied to the cluster update of the two dimensional Ising spin model.

Finally we use a Monte Carlo Renormalization Group method to directly measure the couplings of block Hamiltonians at different blocking levels. For the usual averaging block transformation we confirm the renormalized trajectory (RT) observed by Okawa. For another improved probabilistic block transformation we find the RT, showing that it is much closer to the Standard Action. We then use this block transformation to obtain the discrete β-function of the model which we compare to the perturbative result. We do not see convergence, except when using a rescaled coupling β_E to effectively resum the series. For the latter case we see agreement for m/ Λ^─_(Ms) at , β = 2.14, 2.26, 2.38 and 2.50. To three loops m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.047(35) at β = 2.50, which is very close to the exact value m/ Λ^─_(Ms) = 2.943. Our last point at β = 2.62 disagrees with this estimate however.

The relationship between the radio and gamma-ray emission of blazars

Blazars are active galaxies with a jet closely oriented to our line of sight. They are powerful, variable emitters from radio to gamma-ray wavelengths. Although the general picture of synchrotron emission at low energies and inverse Compton at high energies is well established, important aspects of blazars are not well understood. In particular, the location of the gamma-ray emission region is not clearly established, with some theories favoring a location close to the central engine, while others place it at parsec scales in the radio jet.

We developed a program to locate the gamma-ray emission site in blazars, through the study of correlated variations between their gamma-ray and radio-wave emission. Correlated variations are expected when there is a relation between emission processes at both bands, while delays tell us about the relative location of their energy generation zones. Monitoring at 15 GHz using the Owens Valley Radio Observatory 40 meter telescope started in mid-2007. The program monitors 1593 blazars twice per week, including all blazars detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) north of -20 degrees declination. This program complements the continuous monitoring of gamma-rays by Fermi.

Three year long gamma-ray light curves for bright Fermi blazars are cross-correlated with four years of radio monitoring. The significance of cross-correlation peaks is investigated using simulations that account for the uneven sampling and noise properties of the light curves, which are modeled as red-noise processes with a simple power-law power spectral density. We found that out of 86 sources with high quality data, only three show significant correlations (AO 0235+164, B2 2308+34 and PKS 1502+106). Additionally, we find a significant correlation for Mrk 421 when including the strong gamma-ray/radio flare of late 2012. In all four cases radio variations lag gamma-ray variations, suggesting that the gamma-ray emission originates upstream of the radio emission. For PKS 1502+106 we locate the gamma-ray emission site parsecs away from the central engine, thus disfavoring the model of Blandford and Levinson (1995), while other cases are inconclusive. These findings show that continuous monitoring over long time periods is required to understand the cross-correlation between gamma-ray and radio-wave variability in most blazars.

On erasure coding for distributed storage and streaming communications

The work presented in this thesis revolves around erasure correction coding, as applied to distributed data storage and real-time streaming communications.

First, we examine the problem of allocating a given storage budget over a set of nodes for maximum reliability. The objective is to find an allocation of the budget that maximizes the probability of successful recovery by a data collector accessing a random subset of the nodes. This optimization problem is challenging in general because of its combinatorial nature, despite its simple formulation. We study several variations of the problem, assuming different allocation models and access models, and determine the optimal allocation and the optimal symmetric allocation (in which all nonempty nodes store the same amount of data) for a variety of cases. Although the optimal allocation can have nonintuitive structure and can be difficult to find in general, our results suggest that, as a simple heuristic, reliable storage can be achieved by spreading the budget maximally over all nodes when the budget is large, and spreading it minimally over a few nodes when it is small. Coding would therefore be beneficial in the former case, while uncoded replication would suffice in the latter case.

Second, we study how distributed storage allocations affect the recovery delay in a mobile setting. Specifically, two recovery delay optimization problems are considered for a network of mobile storage nodes: the maximization of the probability of successful recovery by a given deadline, and the minimization of the expected recovery delay. We show that the first problem is closely related to the earlier allocation problem, and solve the second problem completely for the case of symmetric allocations. It turns out that the optimal allocations for the two problems can be quite different. In a simulation study, we evaluated the performance of a simple data dissemination and storage protocol for mobile delay-tolerant networks, and observed that the choice of allocation can have a significant impact on the recovery delay under a variety of scenarios.

Third, we consider a real-time streaming system where messages created at regular time intervals at a source are encoded for transmission to a receiver over a packet erasure link; the receiver must subsequently decode each message within a given delay from its creation time. For erasure models containing a limited number of erasures per coding window, per sliding window, and containing erasure bursts whose maximum length is sufficiently short or long, we show that a time-invariant intrasession code asymptotically achieves the maximum message size among all codes that allow decoding under all admissible erasure patterns. For the bursty erasure model, we also show that diagonally interleaved codes derived from specific systematic block codes are asymptotically optimal over all codes in certain cases. We also study an i.i.d. erasure model in which each transmitted packet is erased independently with the same probability; the objective is to maximize the decoding probability for a given message size. We derive an upper bound on the decoding probability for any time-invariant code, and show that the gap between this bound and the performance of a family of time-invariant intrasession codes is small when the message size and packet erasure probability are small. In a simulation study, these codes performed well against a family of random time-invariant convolutional codes under a number of scenarios.

Finally, we consider the joint problems of routing and caching for named data networking. We propose a backpressure-based policy that employs virtual interest packets to make routing and caching decisions. In a packet-level simulation, the proposed policy outperformed a basic protocol that combines shortest-path routing with least-recently-used (LRU) cache replacement.

The deep ocean density structure at the Last Glacial Maximum : What was it and why?

The search for reliable proxies of past deep ocean temperature and salinity has proved difficult, thereby limiting our ability to understand the coupling of ocean circulation and climate over glacial-interglacial timescales. Previous inferences of deep ocean temperature and salinity from sediment pore fluid oxygen isotopes and chlorinity indicate that the deep ocean density structure at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 20,000 years BP) was set by salinity, and that the density contrast between northern and southern sourced deep waters was markedly greater than in the modern ocean. High density stratification could help explain the marked contrast in carbon isotope distribution recorded in the LGM ocean relative to that we observe today, but what made the ocean's density structure so different at the LGM? How did it evolve from one state to another? Further, given the sparsity of the LGM temperature and salinity data set, what else can we learn by increasing the spatial density of proxy records?

We investigate the cause and feasibility of a highly and salinity stratified deep ocean at the LGM and we work to increase the amount of information we can glean about the past ocean from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride. Using a coupled ocean--sea ice--ice shelf cavity model we test whether the deep ocean density structure at the LGM can be explained by ice--ocean interactions over the Antarctic continental shelves, and show that a large contribution of the LGM salinity stratification can be explained through lower ocean temperature. In order to extract the maximum information from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride we evaluate several inverse methods for ill-posed problems and their ability to recover bottom water histories from sediment pore fluid profiles. We demonstrate that Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation techniques enable us to robustly recover the full solution space of bottom water histories, not only at the LGM, but through the most recent deglaciation and the Holocene up to the present. Finally, we evaluate a non-destructive pore fluid sampling technique, Rhizon samplers, in comparison to traditional squeezing methods and show that despite their promise, Rhizons are unlikely to be a good sampling tool for pore fluid measurements of oxygen isotopes and chloride.

Application of microwave diagnostics to copper chloride and carbon dioxide lasers

Part A

A problem restricting the development of the CuCl laser has been the decrease in output power with increases of tube temperature above 400°C. At that temperature the CuCl vapor pressure is about .1 torr. This is a small fraction of the buffer gas pressure (He at 10 torr).

The aim of the project was to measure the peak radiation temperature (assumed related to the mean energy of electrons) in the laser discharge as a function of the tube temperature. A 24 gHz gated microwave radiometer was used.

It was found that at the tube temperatures at which the output power began to deteriorate, the electron radiation temperature showed a sharp increase (compared with radiation temperature in pure buffer).

Using the above result, we have postulated that this sudden increase is a result of Penning ionization of the Cu atoms. As a consequence of this process the number of Cu atoms available for lasing decrease.

PART B

The aim of the project was to study the dissociation of CO₂ in the glow discharge of flowing CO₂ lasers.

A TM₀₁₁ microwave (3 gHz) cavity was used to measure the radially averaged electron density n_e and the electron-neutral collision frequency in the laser discharge. An estimate of the electric field is made from these two measurements. A gas chromatograph was used to measure the chemical composition of the gases after going through the discharge. This instrument was checked against a mass spectrometer for accuracy and sensitivity.

Several typical laser mixtures were .used: CO₂-N₂-He (1,3,16), (1,3,0), (1,0,16), (1,2,10), (1,2,0), (1,0,10), (2,3,15), (2,3,0), (2,0,15), (1,3,16)+ H₂O and pure CO₂. Results show that for the conditions studied the dissociation as a function of the electron density is uniquely determined by the STP partial flow rate of CO₂, regardless of the amount of N₂ and/or He present. The presence of water vapor in the discharge decreased the degree of dissociation.

A simple theoretical model was developed using thermodynamic equilibrium. The electrons were replaced in the calculations by a distributed heat source.

The results are analyzed with a simple kinetic model.

Short-pulse laser absorption in very steep plasma density gradients

An analytical fluid model for resonance absorption during the oblique incidence by femtosecond laser pulses on a small-scale-length density plasma [k(0)L is an element of(0.1,10)] is proposed. The physics of resonance absorption is analyzed more clearly as we separate the electric field into an electromagnetic part and an electrostatic part. It is found that the characteristics of the physical quantities (fractional absorption, optimum angle, etc.) in a small-scale-length plasma are quite different from the predictions of classical theory. Absorption processes are generally dependent on the density scale length. For shorter scale length or higher laser intensity, vacuum heating tends to be dominant. It is shown that the electrons being pulled out and then returned to the plasma at the interface layer by the wave field can lead to a phenomenon like wave breaking. This can lead to heating of the plasma at the expanse of the wave energy. It is found that the optimum angle is independent of the laser intensity while the absorption rate increases with the laser intensity, and the absorption rate can reach as high as 25%. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

Modelagem do potencial elétrico através da membrana do neurônio ganglionar e células de neuroblastoma: efeitos das cargas superficiais.

O objetivo do presente trabalho é comparar, do ponto de vista elétrico, a membrana do neurônio ganglionar com a da célula de neuroblastoma, analisando os efeitos das cargas fixas sobre o potencial elétrico nas superfícies da bicamada lipídica e também sobre o comportamento do perfil de potencial através da membrana, considerando as condiçõesfísico-químicas do estado de repouso e do estado de potencial de ação. As condições para a ocorrência dos referidos estados foram baseadas em valores numéricos de parâmetros elétricos e químicos, característicos dessas células, obtidos na literatura. O neurônio ganglionar exemplifica um neurônio sadio, e a célula de neuroblastoma, que é uma célula tumoral, exemplifica um neurônio patológico, alterado por esta condição. O neuroblastoma é um tumor que se origina das células da crista neural (neuroblastos), que é uma estrutura embrionária que dá origem a muitas partes do sistema nervoso, podendo surgir em diversos locais do organismo, desde a região do crânio até a área mais inferior da coluna. O modelo adotado para simular a membrana de neurônio inclui: (a) as distribuições espaciais de cargas elétricas fixas no glicocálix e na rede de proteínas citoplasmáticas; (b) as distribuições de cargas na solução eletrolítica dos meios externo e interno; e (c) as cargas superficiais da bicamada lipídica. Os resultados que obtivemos mostraram que, nos estados de repouso e de ação, os potenciais superficiais da bicamada interno (ÁSbc) e externo (ÁSgb) da célula de neuroblastoma não sofrem alteração mensurável, quando a densidade de carga na superfície interna (QSbc) torna-se 50 vezes mais negativa, tanto para uma densidade de carga na superfície externa da bicamada nula (QSgb = 0), como para um valor de QSgb 6= 0. Porém, no estado de repouso, uma leve queda em ÁSbc do neur^onio ganglionar pode ser observada com este nível de variação de carga, sendo que ÁSgb do neurônio ganglionar é mais negativo quando QSgb = 1=1100 e/A2. No estado de ação, para QSgb = 0, o aumento da negatividade de QSbc não provoca alteração detectável de ÁSbc e ÁSgb para os dois neurônios. Quando consideramos QSgb = 1=1100 e/A2, ÁSgb do neurônio ganglionar se torna mais negativo, não se observando variações detectáveis nos potenciais superficiais da célula de neuroblastoma. Tanto no repouso quanto no estado de ação, ÁSgb das duas células não sofre variação sensível com o aumento da negatividade da carga fixa distribuída espacialmente no citoplasma. Já a ÁSbc sofre uma queda gradativa nos dois tipos celulares; porém, no estado de ação, esta queda é mais rápida. Descobrimos diferenças importantes nos perfis de potencial das duas células, especialmente na região do glicocálix.

Model predictive control for deferrable loads scheduling

Real-time demand response is essential for handling the uncertainties of renewable generation. Traditionally, demand response has been focused on large industrial and commercial loads, however it is expected that a large number of small residential loads such as air conditioners, dish washers, and electric vehicles will also participate in the coming years. The electricity consumption of these smaller loads, which we call deferrable loads, can be shifted over time, and thus be used (in aggregate) to compensate for the random fluctuations in renewable generation.

In this thesis, we propose a real-time distributed deferrable load control algorithm to reduce the variance of aggregate load (load minus renewable generation) by shifting the power consumption of deferrable loads to periods with high renewable generation. The algorithm is model predictive in nature, i.e., at every time step, the algorithm minimizes the expected variance to go with updated predictions. We prove that suboptimality of this model predictive algorithm vanishes as time horizon expands in the average case analysis. Further, we prove strong concentration results on the distribution of the load variance obtained by model predictive deferrable load control. These concentration results highlight that the typical performance of model predictive deferrable load control is tightly concentrated around the average-case performance. Finally, we evaluate the algorithm via trace-based simulations.