Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.

The relationship between media reporting of suicide and actual suicide in Australia

This study aimed to determine whether media items about suicide were associated with differential increases in actual suicides. Data were available on 4635 suicide-related items appearing in Australian newspapers and on radio and television news and current affairs shows between March 2000 and February 2001. These data were combined with national data on completed suicides occurring during the same period, by a process that involved identifying the date and geographical reach of the media items and determining the number of suicides occurring in the same location in selected weeks pre- and post-item. Regression analyses were conducted to determine whether the likelihood of an increase in post-item suicides could be explained by particular item characteristics. We found that 39% of media items were followed by an increase in mate suicides, and 31% by an increase in female suicides. Media items were more likely to be associated with increases in both male and female suicides if they occurred in the context of multiple other reports on suicide (versus occurring in isolation), if they were broadcast on television (versus other media), and if they were about completed suicide (versus attempted suicide or suicidal ideation). Different item content appeared to be influential for males and females, with an increase in male suicides being associated with items about an individual's experience of suicide and opinion pieces, and an increase in female suicides being associated with items about mass- or murder-suicide. Item prominence and quality were not differentially associated with increases in male or female suicides. Further research on this topic is required, but in the meantime there is a need to remain vigilant about how suicide news is reported. Mental health professionals and suicide experts should collaborate with media professionals to try to balance 'public interest' against the risk of harm. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reduced nephron number and glomerulomegaly in Australian Aborigines: A group at high risk for renal disease and hypertension

Aborigines in remote areas of Australia have much higher rates of renal disease, as well as hypertension and cardiovascular disease, than non-Aboriginal Australians. We compared kidney findings in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in one remote region. Glomerular number and mean glomerular volume were estimated with the disector/fractionator combination in the right kidney of 19 Aborigines and 24 non-Aboriginal people undergoing forensic autopsy for sudden or unexpected death in the Top End of the Northern Territory. Aborigines had 30% fewer glomeruli than non-Aborigines-202000 fewer glomeruli per kidney, or an estimated 404000 fewer per person (P=0.036). Their mean glomerular volume was 27% larger (P=0.016). Glomerular number was significantly correlated with adult height, inferring a relationship with birthweight, which, on average, is much lower in Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people. Aboriginal people with a history of hypertension had 30% fewer glomeruli than those without-250000 fewer per kidney (P=0.03), or 500000 fewer per person, and their mean glomerular volume was about 25% larger. The lower nephron number in Aboriginal people is compatible with their susceptibility to renal failure. The additional nephron deficit associated with hypertension is compatible with other reports. Lower nephron numbers are probably due in part to reduced nephron endowment, which is related to a suboptimal intrauterine environment. Compensatory glomerular hypertrophy in people with fewer nephrons, while minimizing loss of total filtering surface area, might be exacerbating nephron loss. Optimization of fetal growth should ultimately reduce the florid epidemic of renal disease, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease.

Seropositivity to Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus in non-target mammals during periods of viral activity in a population of wild rabbits in New Zealand

As part of a longitudinal study of the epidemiology of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand, serum samples were obtained from trapped feral animals that may have consumed European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) carcasses (non-target species). During a 21-month period when RHDV infection was monitored in a defined wild rabbit population, 16 feral house cats (Felis catus), 11 stoats (Mustela erminea), four ferrets (Mustela furo) and 126 hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were incidentally captured in the rabbit traps. The proportions of samples that were seropositive to RHDV were 38% for cats, 18% for stoats, 25% for ferrets and 4% for hedgehogs. Seropositive non-target species were trapped in April 2000, in the absence of an overt epidemic of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in the rabbit population, but evidence of recent infection in rabbits was shown. Seropositive non-target species were found up to 2.5 months before and 1 month after this RHDV activity in wild rabbits was detected. Seropositive predators were also trapped on the site between 1 and 4.5 months after a dramatic RHD epidemic in February 2001. This study has shown that high antibody titres can be found in non-target species when there is no overt evidence of RHDV infection in the rabbit population, although a temporal relationship could not be assessed statistically owning to the small sample sizes. Predators and scavengers might be able to contribute to localised spread of RHDV through their movements.

Temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus infection in a low-density population of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in New Zealand

A longitudinal capture-mark-recapture study was conducted to determine the temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in a European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) population of low to moderate density on sand-hill country in the lower North Island of New Zealand. A combination of sampling ( trapping and radio-tracking) and diagnostic (cELISA, PCR and isotype ELISA) methods was employed to obtain data weekly from May 1998 until June 2001. Although rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus ( RHDV) infection was detected in the study population in all 3 years, disease epidemics were evident only in the late summer or autumn months in 1999 and 2001. Overall, 20% of 385 samples obtained from adult animals older than 11 weeks were seropositive. An RHD outbreak in 1999 contributed to an estimated population decline of 26%. A second RHD epidemic in February 2001 was associated with a population decline of 52% over the subsequent month. Following the outbreaks, the seroprevalence in adult survivors was between 40% and 50%. During 2000, no deaths from RHDV were confirmed and mortalities were predominantly attributed to predation. Influx of seronegative immigrants was greatest in the 1999 and 2001 breeding seasons, and preceded the RHD epidemics in those years. Our data suggest that RHD epidemics require the population immunity level to fall below a threshold where propagation of infection can be maintained through the population.

Specific detection of enterovirus 71 directly from clinical specimens using real-time RT-PCR hybridization probe assay

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is one of the main causative agents of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in young children. Infections caused by EV71 could lead to many complications, ranging from brainstem encephalitis to pulmonary oedema, resulting in high mortality. Thus, rapid detection of the virus is required to enable measures to be implemented in preventing widespread transmission. Based on primers and probes targeting at the VP1 region, a real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) hybridization probe assay was developed for specific detection of EV71 from clinical specimens. Quantitative analysis showed that the assay was able to detect as low as 5 EV71 viral copies and EV71 was detected from 46 of the 55 clinical specimens obtained from pediatric patients suffering from HFMD during the period from 2000 to 2003 in Singapore. This study showed that the single tube real-time RT-PCR assay developed in this study can be applied as a rapid and sensitive method for specific detection of EV71 directly from clinical specimens. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent changes in heart failure hospitalisations in Australia

Aim: To assess trends in admissions of patients with heart failure (HF) to all hospitals in Australia between 1996-1997 and 2003-2004. Methods and results: We carried out a retrospective analysis of the official population-based National Hospital Morbidity Data in Australia. Although the absolute number of separations with a principal diagnosis of HF remained stable, the age- and sex-standardized separation rate for HF recorded as principal diagnosis decreased from 2.0 per 1000 population in 1996-1997 to 1.6 per 1000 population in 2003-2004. The corresponding values for HF recorded in any diagnostic position were 7.7 and 4.7 per 1000 population. Men had higher in-hospital mortality than women (8.9% versus 8.1%,p < 0.001) and also a larger decrease in this measure over the study period (21.9% versus 14.4%). While the geometric mean length of stay for HF as principal diagnosis fell from 5.4 days in 1996-1997 to 4.9 days in 2003-2004, the proportion of bed-days related to such diagnoses relative to total bed days attributed to circulatory diseases increased from 12.8% to 13.7% (p < 0.001). Conclusion: There were no increase in number of admissions involving HF and standardized rates of hospital separations with HF fell in Australia between 1996 and 2004. The explanation for the observed declines in in-hospital case fatality and the separation rates should be sought in whole-of-community studies. (c) 2006 European Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The fraction of ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to smoking in the WHO Pacific and South-East Asian regions

Background: Tobacco will soon be the biggest cause of death worldwide, with the greatest burden being borne by low and middle-income countries where 8/10 smokers now live. Objective: This study aimed to quantify the direct burden of smoking for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by calculating the population attributable fractions (PAF) for fatal ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke (haemorrhagic and ischaemic) for all 38 countries in the World Health Organization Western Pacific and South East Asian regions. Design and subjects: Sex-specific prevalence of smoking was obtained from existing data. Estimates of the hazard ratio (HR) for IHD and stroke with smoking as an independent risk factor were obtained from the,600 000 adult subjects in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC). HR estimates and prevalence were then used to calculate sex-specific PAF for IHD and stroke by country. Results: The prevalence of smoking in the 33 countries, for which relevant data could be obtained, ranged from 28-82% in males and from 1-65% in females. The fraction of IHD attributable to smoking ranged from 13-33% in males and from < 1-28% in females. The percentage of haemorrhagic stroke attributable to smoking ranged from 4-12% in males and from < 1-9% in females. Corresponding figures for ischaemic stroke were 11-27% in males and < 1-22% in females. Conclusions: Up to 30% of some cardiovascular fatalities can be attributed to smoking. This is likely an underestimate of the current burden of smoking on CVD, given that the smoking epidemic has developed further since many of the studies were conducted.

Genetic analysis of West Nile New York 1999 encephalitis virus

Analysis of the genome of the flavivirus responsible for the 1999 New York City encephalitis epidemic cloned from human brain by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction indicates its identity as a lineage I West Nile virus (WNV; WNV-NY1999) closely related to WNVs previously isolated in the Middle East.

Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with memory and heterogeneous activation pattern

In this thesis work we develop a new generative model of social networks belonging to the family of Time Varying Networks. The importance of correctly modelling the mechanisms shaping the growth of a network and the dynamics of the edges activation and inactivation are of central importance in network science. Indeed, by means of generative models that mimic the real-world dynamics of contacts in social networks it is possible to forecast the outcome of an epidemic process, optimize the immunization campaign or optimally spread an information among individuals. This task can now be tackled taking advantage of the recent availability of large-scale, high-quality and time-resolved datasets. This wealth of digital data has allowed to deepen our understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. Moreover, the empirical evidence of a temporal dimension in networks prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of graphs to a time varying one. In this work we exploit the Activity-Driven paradigm (a modeling tool belonging to the family of Time-Varying-Networks) to develop a general dynamical model that encodes fundamental mechanism shaping the social networks' topology and its temporal structure: social capital allocation and burstiness. The former accounts for the fact that individuals does not randomly invest their time and social interactions but they rather allocate it toward already known nodes of the network. The latter accounts for the heavy-tailed distributions of the inter-event time in social networks. We then empirically measure the properties of these two mechanisms from seven real-world datasets and develop a data-driven model, analytically solving it. We then check the results against numerical simulations and test our predictions with real-world datasets, finding a good agreement between the two. Moreover, we find and characterize a non-trivial interplay between burstiness and social capital allocation in the parameters phase space. Finally, we present a novel approach to the development of a complete generative model of Time-Varying-Networks. This model is inspired by the Kaufman's adjacent possible theory and is based on a generalized version of the Polya's urn. Remarkably, most of the complex and heterogeneous feature of real-world social networks are naturally reproduced by this dynamical model, together with many high-order topological properties (clustering coefficient, community structure etc.).

ASPECTOS PSICOLÓGICOS DE PACIENTES COM HIV/AIDS E LIPODISTROFIA ATENDIDOS NO HOSPITAL HELIÓPOLIS

A epidemia da Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida (aids) é, atualmente, um fenômeno de grande magnitude e extensão na saúde mundial. A síndrome de lipodistrofia é uma alteração que afeta a autoimagem corporal e a sexualidade, aumentando o estigma da doença e ocasionando dificuldades na adesão ao tratamento e nas relações sociais. OBJETIVOS: a) descrever aspectos da psicodinâmica de pacientes HIV/aids acometidos e não acometidos pela lipodistrofia, dando enfoque aos mecanismos de defesa utilizados ; b) investigar a percepção de imagem corporal em pacientes HIV/aids acometidos e não acometidos pela síndrome de lipodistrofia; c) identificar semelhanças e diferenças de percepção de imagem corporal em pacientes HIV/aids acometidos pela lipodistrofia com aqueles não acometidos. MÉTODO: Foram selecionados oito pacientes por critério de conveniência do ambulatório da Clínica de Infectologia do Hospital Heliópolis. Foram utilizados um Roteiro de Entrevista e o Desenho da Figura Humana DFH teste projetivo gráfico de personalidade; a análise dos dados foram submetidos à análise qualitativa conforme indicação do instrumental, auxiliados pela leitura do conteúdo clinico-diagnóstico psicológico. RESULTADOS: Nos dois grupos os dados apontaram para características em comum quanto à psicodinâmica interna e à percepção de imagem corporal. Recursos defensivos primitivos foram os mais utilizados caracterizando a presença de disfunção da imagem corporal e um controle egóico rígido, embora frágil. Percebeu-se o quanto é angustiante, para estas pacientes, lidar não somente com a autoimagem como também com a sexualidade. CONCLUSÕES: Os programas de acompanhamento ao HIV/aids devem considerar o quanto essas pacientes necessitam de ser acompanhadas em psicoterapia. A promoção de saúde deve levar em conta não somente a melhora da qualidade de vida, mas também buscar compreender como estas mulheres se relacionam e de que forma exercem a sua sexualidade.

CONHECIMENTOS E PREVENÇÃO DE DST/AIDS EM ADOLESCENTES

A Psicologia da Saúde vem se desdobrando para atender a demanda da saúde pública, principalmente sobre prevenção de doenças e promoção da saúde. No que se refere a epidemia da AIDS e outras doenças sexualmente transmissíveis, o adolescente tem sido o público mais vulnerável. A adolescência é considerada uma fase perturbada e perturbadora. Nesse período da vida o adolescente está mais sujeito à contaminação das DST/AIDS em razão da instabilidade emocional e sua postura frente a valores e padrões de conduta. Este estudo tem por objetivo descrever conhecimentos e comportamentos de proteção e risco de práticas sexuais de adolescentes; descrever dados sócio-econômicos e demográficos desses adolescentes, descrever o conhecimento dos adolescentes em relação as DST/AIDS e descrever os comportamentos de proteção e riscos a respeito das DST/AIDS. A população deste estudo foi constituída por 95 adolescentes de ambos os gêneros, com um predomínio do gênero masculino, faixa etária entre 14 e 21 anos e com renda familiar média de 4 (quatro) salários mínimos. Trata-se de pesquisa descritiva, para o qual utilizou-se um questionário de autopreenchimento composto por questões norteadas ao tema. A coleta de dados ocorreu em sala de aula no período noturno, de uma escola estadual do município de Guarulhos. Após o término do preenchimento do questionário, os adolescentes assistiram uma palestra de prevenção e orientação sobre DST/AIDS, onde elucidaram dúvidas. Os resultados demonstram 67,4% dos adolescentes, tanto o gênero feminino quanto o gênero masculino, tem dificuldades de definir o conceito de sexualidade e 84,2% sabem corretamente a definição de doenças sexualmente transmissíveis. A maioria dos adolescentes (67,4%) respondeu conhecer algum tipo de doença sexualmente transmissível, destacando-se aqui a AIDS e a gonorréia. O gênero masculino teve início da vida sexual aos 10 anos e o gênero feminino aos 13 anos, representando 53,7% com vida sexual ativa. Neste estudo 58,9% informam saber quais são os comportamentos de proteção, porém entre estes, apenas 55,8% utilizam o preservativo masculino (camisinha). Não há diferenças significativas quanto à modalidade de relacionamento e o uso constante do preservativo masculino. Verificou-se que 63,1% dos adolescentes obtém informações e conhecimentos sobre as DST/AIDS através dos profissionais da educação e da saúde. Portanto, a sala de aula passa a ser um fator de proteção. Esse estudo confirma que parte dos adolescentes tem conhecimento e informações sobre conceitos relativos as DST/AIDS, porém quanto às práticas para um comportamento de proteção frente às mesmas apresentam conhecimentos frágeis, gerando assim comportamentos de risco. Estas situações comprometem a tomada de comportamentos de proteção. Portanto, um programa contínuo da área da saúde e da educação dentro da escola que desenvolva atividades interativas a fim de transformar o comportamento do adolescente sobre informações e conhecimentos em consciência de comportamentos de proteção efetivas poderá melhorar essa relação entre ter o conhecimento e utilizá-lo na prática.(AU)

PADRÕES DE PRODUTIVIDADE EM PESQUISA NA LITERATURA DE FINANÇAS: UM ESTUDO BIBLIOMÉTRICO NOS PRINCIPAIS PERIÓDICOS CIENTÍFICOS NACIONAIS NO PERÍODO DE 2005 A 2014

A Administração Financeira surge no início do século XIX juntamente com o movimento de consolidação das grandes empresas e a formação dos mercados nacionais americano enquanto que no Brasil os primeiros estudos ocorrem a partir da segunda metade do século XX. Desde entãoo país conseguiu consolidar alguns centros de excelência em pesquisa, formar grupo significativo de pesquisadores seniores e expandir as áreas de pesquisa no campo, contudo, ainda são poucos os trabalhos que buscam retratar as características da produtividade científica em Finanças. Buscando contribuir para a melhor compreensão do comportamento produtivo dessa área a presente pesquisa estuda sua produção científica, materializada na forma de artigos digitais, publicados em 24 conceituados periódicos nacionais classificados nos estratos Qualis/CAPES A2, B1 e B2 da Área de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo. Para tanto são aplicadas a Lei de Bradford, Lei do Elitismo de Price e Lei de Lotka. Pela Lei de Bradford são identificadas três zonas de produtividade sendo o núcleo formado por três revistas, estando uma delas classificada no estrato Qualis/CAPES B2, o que evidencia a limitação de um recorte tendo como único critério a classificação Qualis/CAPES. Para a Lei do Elitismo de Price, seja pela contagem direta ou completa, não identificamos comportamento de uma elite semelhante ao apontado pela teoria e que conta com grande número de autores com apenas uma publicação.Aplicando-se o modelo do Poder Inverso Generalizado, calculado por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO), verificamos que produtividade dos pesquisadores, quando feita pela contagem direta, se adequa àquela definida pela Lei de Lotka ao nível de α = 0,01 de significância, contudo, pela contagem completa não podemos confirmar a hipótese de homogeneidade das distribuições, além do fato de que nas duas contagens a produtividade analisada pelo parâmetro n é maior que 2 e, portanto, a produtividade do pesquisadores de finanças é menor que a defendida pela teoria.

Studies of the nature of Burkholderia cepacia in cystic fibrosis

Burkholderia cepacia is an opportunistic pathogen that colonises of the lungs of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients, with a frequently fatal outcome. Antibiotic resistance is common and highly transmissible epidemic strains have been described in the UK. 37 B. cepacia isolates from clinical and botanical sources were characterised via metabolic capabilities, antibiotic sensitivity, fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles restriction digest analysis of chromosomal DNA by pulsed-gel electrophoresis (PFGE) (with the use of two separate restriction enzymes) and outer membrane protein (OMP) profiles. This revealed isolates of the UK CF epidemic strain to form a distinct group with a specific OMP profile. Cluster analysis of PFGE and FAME profiles revealed the species Burkholderia gladioli and Burkholderia vietnamiensis to be more closely related to each other and to laboratory strains of B. cepacia than to the CF epidemic strain considered a member of the latter species. The epidemic strain of B. cepacia may therefore be worthy of species definition in its own right. All the strains studied showed a high level of resistance to antibiotics, including the carbapenems. Considering this, carbapenemase production by isolates of B. cepacia was investigated. A metallo-β-lactamase from a clinical strain of B. cepacia was isolated and partially purified of using Cibacron blue F3GA-coupled agarose. The resulting preparation showed a single band of β-lactamase activity (pI 8.45) after analytical isoelectric focusing. The enzyme was particularly effective in the hydrolysis of imipenem. Meropenem, biapenem, cephaloridine, ceftazidime, benzylpenicillin, ampicillin and carbenicillin were hydrolysed at a lower rate. An unusual inhibition profile was noted. Inhibition by the metal ion chelators ethylene diamine tetra acetic acid and o-phenanthroline was reversed by addition of zinc, indicating a metallo-enzyme, whilst >90% inhibition was attainable with 0.1mM concentrations of tazobactam and clavulanic acid. A study of 8 other clinical isolates showed an enzyme of pI 8.45 to be present and inducible by imipenem in each case. This enzyme was assigned PCM-I (Pseudomonas cepacia metalloenzyme I).

Sensing and control of adipocyte function

Obesity has become a global epidemic. Approximately 15% of the world population is either overweight or obese. This figure rises to 75% in many westernised countries including the United Kingdom. Health costs in the UK to treat obesity and associated disease are conservatively estimated at 6% of the National Health Service (NHS) budget equating to 3.33 billion Euros. Excess adiposity, especially in visceral depots, increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, gall stones, hypertension and cancer. Type 2 diabetes mellitus accounts for >90% of all cases of diabetes of which the majority can be attributed to increased adiposity, and approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease has been attributed to obesity in the US. Weight loss reduces risk of these complications and in some cases can eliminate the condition. However, weight loss by conventional non-medicated methods is often unsuccessful or promptly followed by weight regain. This thesis has investigated adipocytes development and adipokine signalling with a view to enhance the understanding of tissue functionality and to identify possible targets or pathways for therapeutic intervention. Adipocyte isolation from human tissue samples was undertaken for these investigative studies, and the methodology was optimised. The resulting isolates of pre-adipocytes and mature adipocytes were characterised and evaluated. Major findings from these studies indicate that mature adipocytes undergo cell division post terminal differentiation. Gene studies indicated that subcutaneous adipose tissue exuded greater concentrations and fluctuations of adipokine levels than visceral adipose tissue, indicating an important adiposensing role of subcutaneous adipose tissue. It was subsequently postulated that the subcutaneous depot may provide the major focus for control of overall energy balance and by extension weight control. One potential therapeutic target, 11ß-hydrosteroid dehydrogenase (11ß-HSD1) was investigated, and prospective inhibitors of its action were considered (BVT1, BVT2 and AZ121). Selective reduction of adiposity of the visceral depot was desired due to its correlation with the detrimental effects of obesity. However, studies indicated that although the visceral depot tissue was not unaffected, the subcutaneous depot was more susceptible to therapeutic inhibition by these compounds. This was determined to be a potentially valuable therapeutic intervention in light of previous postulations regarding long-term energy control via the subcutaneous tissue depot.