Second-order quantile methods for experts and combinatorial games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles.

An introduction to education research methods: Exploring the learning journey of pre-service teachers in a transnational programme

Internationally there is interest in developing the research skills of pre-service teachers as a means of ongoing professional renewal with a distinct need for systematic and longitudinal investigation of student learning. The current study takes a unique perspective by exploring the research learning journey of pre-service teachers participating in a transnational degree programme. Using a case-study design that includes both a self-reported and direct measure of research knowledge, the results indicate a progression in learning, as well as evidence that this research knowledge is continued or maintained when the pre-service teachers return to their home university. The findings of this study have implications for both pre-service teacher research training and transnational programmes.

Machine learning approaches to analysing textual injury surveillance data: A systematic review

Objective To synthesise recent research on the use of machine learning approaches to mining textual injury surveillance data. Design Systematic review. Data sources The electronic databases which were searched included PubMed, Cinahl, Medline, Google Scholar, and Proquest. The bibliography of all relevant articles was examined and associated articles were identified using a snowballing technique. Selection criteria For inclusion, articles were required to meet the following criteria: (a) used a health-related database, (b) focused on injury-related cases, AND used machine learning approaches to analyse textual data. Methods The papers identified through the search were screened resulting in 16 papers selected for review. Articles were reviewed to describe the databases and methodology used, the strength and limitations of different techniques, and quality assurance approaches used. Due to heterogeneity between studies meta-analysis was not performed. Results Occupational injuries were the focus of half of the machine learning studies and the most common methods described were Bayesian probability or Bayesian network based methods to either predict injury categories or extract common injury scenarios. Models were evaluated through either comparison with gold standard data or content expert evaluation or statistical measures of quality. Machine learning was found to provide high precision and accuracy when predicting a small number of categories, was valuable for visualisation of injury patterns and prediction of future outcomes. However, difficulties related to generalizability, source data quality, complexity of models and integration of content and technical knowledge were discussed. Conclusions The use of narrative text for injury surveillance has grown in popularity, complexity and quality over recent years. With advances in data mining techniques, increased capacity for analysis of large databases, and involvement of computer scientists in the injury prevention field, along with more comprehensive use and description of quality assurance methods in text mining approaches, it is likely that we will see a continued growth and advancement in knowledge of text mining in the injury field.

Informing methods for preparing public health overviews of reviews: a comparison of public health overviews with Cochrane Overviews published between 1999 and 2014

Background: Overviews of systematic reviews (SRs) are useful for public health policy; however there is an absence of Cochrane Overviews covering public health (PH) topics. Objectives: We sought to analyze the methodological approaches used in existing Cochrane Overviews and Protocols for overviews (primarily clinical in nature), and compare these to the methods and approaches used in PH overviews (non-Cochrane). The intent was to identify issues that would be relevant for undertaking Cochrane overviews. Methods: We conducted a descriptive analysis of overviews published between 1999 and 2014. We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for Cochrane Protocols for overviews and Cochrane Overviews, and the HealthEvidence.org for PH overviews. The primary characteristics of the overviews and elements of the methodology were extracted and compared. Results: A total of 61 overviews of SRs were included in our analysis; specifically, this included 21 Cochrane Protocols for overviews, 15 Cochrane Overviews, and 27 non-Cochrane PH overviews. Amongst the overviews, the most significant differences are that PH overviews (non-Cochrane) tend to: include earlier and more reviews, greater number of participants, allow lower levels of evidence, use assessment tools other than AMSTAR (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews, i.e. a tool for assessing quality of SRs), not assess quality of evidence in reviews, search more databases overall, specify search limits including English-only reviews, and not consider recent primary studies for inclusion. Some of these differences clearly related to quality, however many relate to the nuances of PH interventions. Conclusions: The methodology in Cochrane overviews and PH overviews varies widely. Future PH overviews may benefit from the Cochrane methodology but the Cochrane approach requires modification to accommodate PH research methodology. Additionally, the use of databases that pre-screen and quality assess relevant PH systematic reviews may help expedite the search process.

Valuation of hospital bed-days released by infection control programs: A comparison of methods

We performed a contingent valuation survey to elicit the opportunity cost of bed-days consumed by healthcare-associated infections in 11 European hospitals. The opportunity cost of a bed-day was significantly lower than the accounting cost; median values were i72 and i929, respectively (P ! .001). Accounting methods overestimate the opportunity cost of bed-days...

Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

A comparison of methods to estimate the extent of unlicensed driving: Literature review. Final report to Queensland Transport

Unlicensed driving is a serious problem in many countries, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. The term ‘unlicensed driver' is generally used to refer to people who operate a motor vehicle or motorcycle without a valid driver's licence, including those who: • have let their licence expire; • have been disqualified or suspended from driving; • hold an inappropriate class of licence for the vehicle they drive; • drive outside the restrictions of a special licence; • don’t currently hold a licence; or • have never held a licence.

Uptake of influenza vaccination in pregnancy amongst Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women: A mixed-methods pilot study

Background Influenza infection during pregnancy is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Immunisation against influenza is recommended during pregnancy in several countries but uptake of vaccine is poor. There are limited data on vaccine uptake, and the determinants of vaccination, in Australian Aboriginal and/or Torres Islander women during pregnancy. This study aimed to establish an appropriate methodology and collect pilot data on vaccine uptake and attitudes towards, and perceptions of, maternal influenza vaccination in that population in order to inform the development of larger studies. Methods A mixed-methods study comprised of a cross-sectional survey and yarning circles (focus groups) amongst Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women attending two primary health care services. The women were between 28 weeks gestation and less than 16 weeks post-birth. These data were supplemented by data collected in an ongoing national Australian study of maternal influenza vaccination. Aboriginal research officers collected community data and data from the yarning circles which were based on a narrative enquiry framework. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse quantitative data and thematic analyses were applied to qualitative data. Results Quantitative data were available for 53 women and seven of these women participated in the yarning circles. The proportion of women who reported receipt of an influenza vaccine during their pregnancy was 9/53. Less than half of the participants (21/53) reported they had been offered the vaccine in pregnancy. Forty-three percent reported they would get a vaccine if they became pregnant again. Qualitative data suggested perceived benefits to themselves and their infants were important factors in the decision to be vaccinated but there was insufficient information available to women to make that choice. Conclusions The rates of influenza immunisation may continue to remain low for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women during pregnancy. Access to services and recommendations by a health care worker may be factors in the lower rates. Our findings support the need for larger studies directed at monitoring and understanding the determinants of maternal influenza vaccine uptake during pregnancy in Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women. This research will best be achieved using methods that account for the social and cultural contexts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in Australia.

Methods for the illumination of multilevel buildings with vertical light pipes

This paper examines the feasibility of using vertical light pipes to naturally illuminate the central core of a multilevel building not reached by window light. The challenges addressed were finding a method to extract and distribute equal amounts of light at each level and designing collectors to improve the effectiveness of vertical light pipes in delivering low elevation sunlight to the interior. Extraction was achieved by inserting partially reflecting cones within transparent sections of the pipes at each floor level. Theory was formulated to estimate the partial reflectance necessary to provide equal light extraction at each level. Designs for daylight collectors formed from laser cut panels tilted above the light pipe were developed and the benefits and limitations of static collectors as opposed to collectors that follow the sun azimuth investigated. Performance was assessed with both basic and detailed mathematical simulation and by observations made with a five level model building under clear sky conditions.

Melanoma cell colony expansion parameters revealed by approximate Bayesian computation

In vitro studies and mathematical models are now being widely used to study the underlying mechanisms driving the expansion of cell colonies. This can improve our understanding of cancer formation and progression. Although much progress has been made in terms of developing and analysing mathematical models, far less progress has been made in terms of understanding how to estimate model parameters using experimental in vitro image-based data. To address this issue, a new approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is proposed to estimate key parameters governing the expansion of melanoma cell (MM127) colonies, including cell diffusivity, D, cell proliferation rate, λ, and cell-to-cell adhesion, q, in two experimental scenarios, namely with and without a chemical treatment to suppress cell proliferation. Even when little prior biological knowledge about the parameters is assumed, all parameters are precisely inferred with a small posterior coefficient of variation, approximately 2–12%. The ABC analyses reveal that the posterior distributions of D and q depend on the experimental elapsed time, whereas the posterior distribution of λ does not. The posterior mean values of D and q are in the ranges 226–268 µm2h−1, 311–351 µm2h−1 and 0.23–0.39, 0.32–0.61 for the experimental periods of 0–24 h and 24–48 h, respectively. Furthermore, we found that the posterior distribution of q also depends on the initial cell density, whereas the posterior distributions of D and λ do not. The ABC approach also enables information from the two experiments to be combined, resulting in greater precision for all estimates of D and λ.

Comparison of Body Composition Assessment Methods in Breast Cancer Survivors

Purpose/Objectives: To examine and compare the reliability of four body composition methods commonly used in assessing breast cancer survivors. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: A rehabilitation facility at a university-based comprehensive cancer center in the southeastern United States. Sample: 14 breast cancer survivors aged 40-71 years. Methods: Body fat (BF) percentage was estimated via bioelectric impedance analysis (BIA), air displacement plethysmography (ADP), and skinfold thickness (SKF) using both three- and seven-site algorithms, where reliability of the methods was evaluated by conducting two tests for each method (test 1 and test 2), one immediately after the other. An analysis of variance was used to compare the results of BF percentage among the four methods. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to test the reliability of each method. Main Research Variable: BF percentage. Findings: Significant differences in BF percentage were observed between BIA and all other methods (three-site SKF, p < 0.001; seven-site SKF, p < 0.001; ADP, p = 0.002). No significant differences (p > 0.05) in BF percentage between three-site SKF, seven-site SKF, and ADP were observed. ICCs between test 1 and test 2 for each method were BIA = 1, ADP = 0.98, three-site SKF = 0.99, and seven-site SKF = 0.94. Conclusions: ADP and both SKF methods produce similar estimates of BF percentage in all participants, whereas BIA overestimated BF percentage relative to the other measures. Caution is recommended when using BIA as the body composition method for breast cancer survivors who have completed treatment but are still undergoing adjuvant hormonal therapy. Implications for Nursing: Measurements of body composition can be implemented very easily as part of usual care and should serve as an objective outcome measure for interventions designed to promote healthy behaviors among breast cancer survivors. - See more at: https://onf.ons.org/onf/38/4/comparison-body-composition-assessment-methods-breast-cancer-survivors#sthash.5djfTS1Q.dpuf

Effectiveness of two forms of grouted reinforced confinement methods to hollow concrete masonry panels

This paper presents a study on the effectiveness of two forms of reinforced grout confining systems for hollow concrete block masonry. The systems considered are: (1) a layer of grout directly confining the unreinforced masonry, and (2) a layer of grout indirectly confining the unreinforced masonry through block shells. The study involves experimental testing and finite-element (FE) modeling of six diagonally loaded masonry panels containing the two confining systems. The failure mode, the ultimate load, and the load-deformation behaviors of the diagonally loaded panels were successfully simulated using the finite-element model. In-plane shear strength and stiffness of the masonry thus determined are used to evaluate some selected models of the confined masonry shear including the strut-and-tie model reported in the literature. The evaluated strut width is compared with the prediction of the FE model and then extended for rational prediction of the strength of confined masonry shear walls.

Focusing on what counts: Using exploratory focus groups to enhance the development of an electronic survey in a mixed-methods research design

This paper describes the use of exploratory focus groups to inform the development of a survey instrument in a sequential phase mixed methods study investigating differences in secondary students’ career choice capability. Five focus groups were conducted with 23 year 10 students in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Analysis of the focus group data informed the design of the instrument for the second phase of the research project: a large-scale cross-sectional survey. In this paper, we discuss the benefits of using sequential phase mixed method approaches when inquiring into complex phenomena such as human capability.

How European public sector agencies innovate: The use of bottom-up, policy-dependent and knowledge-scanning innovation methods

Factor and cluster analysis are used to identify different methods that public sector agencies in Europeuse to innovate, based on data from a 2010 survey of 3273 agencies. The analyses identify three types ofinnovative agencies: bottom-up, knowledge-scanning, and policy-dependent. The distribution of bottom-up agencies across European countries is positively correlated with average per capita incomes while thedistribution of knowledge-scanning agencies is negatively correlated with income. In contrast, there isno consistent pattern by country in the distribution of policy-dependent agencies. Regression resultsthat control for agency characteristics find that innovation methods are significantly correlated with thebeneficial outcomes of innovation, with bottom-up and knowledge-scanning agencies out-performingpolicy-dependent agencies.

Evolution of self-reporting methods for identifying discrete emotions in science classrooms

Emotion researchers have grappled with challenging methodological issues in capturing emotions of participants in naturalistic settings such as school or university classrooms. Self-reporting methods have been used frequently, yet these methods are inadequate when used alone. We argue that the self-reporting methods of emotion diaries and cogenerative dialogues can be helpful in identifying in-the-moment emotions when used in conjunction with the microanalysis of video recordings of classroom events. We trace the evolution of our use of innovative self-reporting methods through three cases from our research projects, and propose new directions for our ongoing development and application of these methods in both school and university classrooms.