Statistical modelling and power analysis for detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads

The export of sediments from coastal catchments can have detrimental impacts on estuaries and near shore reef ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef. Catchment management approaches aimed at reducing sediment loads require monitoring to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing loads over time. However, load estimation is not a trivial task due to the complex behaviour of constituents in natural streams, the variability of water flows and often a limited amount of data. Regression is commonly used for load estimation and provides a fundamental tool for trend estimation by standardising the other time specific covariates such as flow. This study investigates whether load estimates and resultant power to detect trends can be enhanced by (i) modelling the error structure so that temporal correlation can be better quantified, (ii) making use of predictive variables, and (iii) by identifying an efficient and feasible sampling strategy that may be used to reduce sampling error. To achieve this, we propose a new regression model that includes an innovative compounding errors model structure and uses two additional predictive variables (average discounted flow and turbidity). By combining this modelling approach with a new, regularly optimised, sampling strategy, which adds uniformity to the event sampling strategy, the predictive power was increased to 90%. Using the enhanced regression model proposed here, it was possible to detect a trend of 20% over 20 years. This result is in stark contrast to previous conclusions presented in the literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

Rank regression analysis of correlated water quality data from South East Queensland

With growing population and fast urbanization in Australia, it is a challenging task to maintain our water quality. It is essential to develop an appropriate statistical methodology in analyzing water quality data in order to draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advices in water management. This paper is to develop robust rank-based procedures for analyzing nonnormally distributed data collected over time at different sites. To take account of temporal correlations of the observations within sites, we consider the optimally combined estimating functions proposed by Wang and Zhu (Biometrika, 93:459-464, 2006) which leads to more efficient parameter estimation. Furthermore, we apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Smoothing leads to easy calculation of the parameter estimates and their variance-covariance matrix. Analysis of water quality data from Total Iron and Total Cyanophytes shows the differences between the traditional generalized linear mixed models and rank regression models. Our analysis also demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models for analyzing nonnormal data.

Wavelet-based multiresolution analysis of Wivenhoe Dam water temperatures

Water temperature measurements from Wivenhoe Dam offer a unique opportunity for studying fluctuations of temperatures in a subtropical dam as a function of time and depth. Cursory examination of the data indicate a complicated structure across both time and depth. We propose simplifying the task of describing these data by breaking the time series at each depth into physically meaningful components that individually capture daily, subannual, and annual (DSA) variations. Precise definitions for each component are formulated in terms of a wavelet-based multiresolution analysis. The DSA components are approximately pairwise uncorrelated within a given depth and between different depths. They also satisfy an additive property in that their sum is exactly equal to the original time series. Each component is based upon a set of coefficients that decomposes the sample variance of each time series exactly across time and that can be used to study both time-varying variances of water temperature at each depth and time-varying correlations between temperatures at different depths. Each DSA component is amenable for studying a certain aspect of the relationship between the series at different depths. The daily component in general is weakly correlated between depths, including those that are adjacent to one another. The subannual component quantifies seasonal effects and in particular isolates phenomena associated with the thermocline, thus simplifying its study across time. The annual component can be used for a trend analysis. The descriptive analysis provided by the DSA decomposition is a useful precursor to a more formal statistical analysis.

Nonparametric rank regression for analyzing water quality concentration data with multiple detection limits

Environmental data usually include measurements, such as water quality data, which fall below detection limits, because of limitations of the instruments or of certain analytical methods used. The fact that some responses are not detected needs to be properly taken into account in statistical analysis of such data. However, it is well-known that it is challenging to analyze a data set with detection limits, and we often have to rely on the traditional parametric methods or simple imputation methods. Distributional assumptions can lead to biased inference and justification of distributions is often not possible when the data are correlated and there is a large proportion of data below detection limits. The extent of bias is usually unknown. To draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advice for environmental management authorities, it is essential to develop and apply an appropriate statistical methodology. This paper proposes rank-based procedures for analyzing non-normally distributed data collected at different sites over a period of time in the presence of multiple detection limits. To take account of temporal correlations within each site, we propose an optimal linear combination of estimating functions and apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Finally, we apply the proposed method to the water quality data collected at Susquehanna River Basin in United States of America, which dearly demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models.

Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry in Studies of Drug Metabolism and Permeability

Poor pharmacokinetics is one of the reasons for the withdrawal of drug candidates from clinical trials. There is an urgent need for investigating in vitro ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion) properties and recognising unsuitable drug candidates as early as possible in the drug development process. Current throughput of in vitro ADME profiling is insufficient because effective new synthesis techniques, such as drug design in silico and combinatorial synthesis, have vastly increased the number of drug candidates. Assay technologies for larger sets of compounds than are currently feasible are critically needed. The first part of this work focused on the evaluation of cocktail strategy in studies of drug permeability and metabolic stability. N-in-one liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) methods were developed and validated for the multiple component analysis of samples in cocktail experiments. Together, cocktail dosing and LC/MS/MS were found to form an effective tool for increasing throughput. First, cocktail dosing, i.e. the use of a mixture of many test compounds, was applied in permeability experiments with Caco-2 cell culture, which is a widely used in vitro model for small intestinal absorption. A cocktail of 7-10 reference compounds was successfully evaluated for standardization and routine testing of the performance of Caco-2 cell cultures. Secondly, cocktail strategy was used in metabolic stability studies of drugs with UGT isoenzymes, which are one of the most important phase II drug metabolizing enzymes. The study confirmed that the determination of intrinsic clearance (Clint) as a cocktail of seven substrates is possible. The LC/MS/MS methods that were developed were fast and reliable for the quantitative analysis of a heterogenous set of drugs from Caco-2 permeability experiments and the set of glucuronides from in vitro stability experiments. The performance of a new ionization technique, atmospheric pressure photoionization (APPI), was evaluated through comparison with electrospray ionization (ESI), where both techniques were used for the analysis of Caco-2 samples. Like ESI, also APPI proved to be a reliable technique for the analysis of Caco-2 samples and even more flexible than ESI because of the wider dynamic linear range. The second part of the experimental study focused on metabolite profiling. Different mass spectrometric instruments and commercially available software tools were investigated for profiling metabolites in urine and hepatocyte samples. All the instruments tested (triple quadrupole, quadrupole time-of-flight, ion trap) exhibited some good and some bad features in searching for and identifying of expected and non-expected metabolites. Although, current profiling software is helpful, it is still insufficient. Thus a time-consuming largely manual approach is still required for metabolite profiling from complex biological matrices.

Fluidity, Permeability And Antioxidant Behavior Of Model Membranes Incorporated With Alpha-Tocopherol And Vitamin-E Acetate

Magnetic resonance studies reveal a marked difference between the binding of α-tocopherol and that of the corresponding acetate (vitamin E acetate) with dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) vesicles. This is reflected in differences in the phase-transition curves of the DPPC vesicles incorporated with the two compounds, as well as in the 13C relaxation times and line widths. A model for the incorporation of these molecules in lipid bilayers has been suggested. α-Tocopherol binds strongly with the lipids, possibly through a hydrogen bond formation between the hydroxyl group of the former and one of the oxygen atoms of the latter. The possibility of such a hydrogen bond formation is excluded in vitamin E acetate, which binds loosely through the normal hydrophobic interaction. The model for lipid-vitamin interaction explains the in vitro decomposition of H2O2 by α-tocopherol. α-Tocopherol in conjuction with H2O2 can also act as a free-radical scavenger in the lipid phase. The incorporation of α-tocopherol and vitamin E acetate in DPPC vesicles enhances the permeability of lipid bilayers for small molecules such as sodium ascorbate.

Drops That Open Worlds : Image of Water in the Poetry of Euphrase Kezilahabi

Euphrase Kezilahabi on tansanialainen kirjailija, joka ensimmäisenä julkaisi swahilinkielisen vapaalla mitalla kirjoitetun runokokoelman. Perinteisessä swahilirunoudessa tiukat muotosäännöt ovat tärkeitä, ja teos synnytti kiivasta keskustelua. Runoteokset Kichomi ( Viilto , Kipu , 1974) ja Karibu Ndani ( Tervetuloa sisään , 1988) sekä Kezilahabin muu tuotanto voidaan nähdä uuden sukupolven taiteena. Kezilahabi on arvostettu runoilija, mutta hänen runojaan ei aiemmin ole käännetty englanniksi (yksittäisiä säkeitä lukuunottamatta), eikä juurikaan tutkittu yksityiskohtaisesti. Yleiskuvaan pyrkivissä lausunnoissa Kezilahabin runouden on hyvin usein määritelty olevan poliittista. Monet Kezilahabin runoista ottavatkin kantaa yhteiskunnallisiin kysymyksiin, mutta niiden pohdinta on kuitenkin runoissa vain yksi taso. Sen lisäksi Kezilahabin lyriikassa on paljon muuta ennen kartoittamatonta tämä tutkimus keskittyy veden kuvaan (the image of water). Kezilahabi vietti lapsuutensa saarella Victoria-järven keskellä, ja hänen vesikuvastonsa on rikasta. Tutkimuskysymyksenä on, mitä veden kuva runoteoksissa Kichomi ja Karibu Ndani esittää. Runojen analysoinnissa ja tulkinnassa on tarkasteltu myös sitä, miten äänteellinen taso osallistuu kuvien luomiseen. Tutkimuksen määritelmä kuvasta pohjautuu osittain Hugh Kennerin näkemykseen, jonka mukaan oleellista kuvassa on kirjaimellinen taso. Kennerin lähtökohtaan on yhdistetty John Shoptawin teoriaa, joka korostaa runon äänteellisen puolen tärkeyttä merkityksen muodostumisessa. Foneemien analyysissä vaikutteena on ollut Reuven Tsurin teoria. Analyysiosio osoittaa, että veden kuva edustaa ja käsittelee teoksissa lukuisia teemoja: elämää, kuolemaa, fyysistä vetovoimaa, runoutta, mielikuvitusta ja (ali)tajuntaa sekä moraalia. Veden kuvan tutkimuksen pohjalta on nähtävissä, että Kezilahabin filosofia asettuu elävä/kuollut- ja elämä/kuolema dikotomioiden ulkopuolelle.

A towed instrument package for fisheries research in great barrier reef waters

A tethered remote instrument package (TRIP) has been developed for biological surveys over Queensland's continental shelf and slope. The present system, evolved from an earlier sled configuration, is suspended above the sea bed and towed at low speeds. Survey information is collected through video and film cameras while instrument and environmental variables are handled by a minicomputer. The operator was able to "fly" the instrument package above the substrate by using an altitude echosounder, forward-looking sonar and real-time television viewing. Unwanted movements of the viewing system were stabilized through a gyro-controlled camera-head panning system. the hydrodynamic drag of the umbilical presented a major control problem which could be overcome only by a reduction in towing speed. Despite the constraints of towing a device such as this through the coral reef environment, the package performed well during a recent biological survey where it was worked at 50% of its 350 m design depth.

Stretching water - Queensland’s water use efficiency cotton and grains adoption program

The Cotton and Grain Adoption Program of the Queensland Rural Water Use Efficiency Initiative is targeting five major irrigation regions in the state with the objective to develop better irrigation water use efficiency (WUE) through the adoption of best management practices in irrigation. The major beneficiaries of the program will be industries, irrigators and local communities. The benefits will flow via two avenues: increased production and profit resulting from improved WUE and improved environmental health as a consequence of greatly reduced runoff of irrigation tailwater into rivers and streams. This in turn will reduce the risk of nutrient and pesticide contamination of waterways. As a side effect, the work is likely to contribute to an improved public image of the cotton and grain industries. In each of the five regions, WUE officers have established grower groups to assist in providing local input into the specific objectives of extension and demonstration activities. The groups also assist in developing growers' perceptions of ownership of the work. Activities are based around four on-farm demonstration sites in each region where irrigation management techniques and hardware are showcased. A key theme of the program is monitoring water use. This is applied both to on-farm storage and distribution as well as to application methods and in-field management. This paper describes the project, its activities and successes.

ESR measurements of the partitioning of some new spin probes in n-octanol-water

The stable free radical 1,1,3,3-tetramethylisoindolin-2-yloxyl (TMIO) has proved to be very suitable for use as a spin probe for a number of applications. Because it is soluble mainly in non-polar liquids, there is a need for new derivatives that can be used in a variety of environments. This has been done by introducing substituents in the 5-position of the aromatic ring, namely carboxyl (CTMIO), trimethylamino (TMTMIOI) and sodium sulphonate (NaTMIOS). An accurate ESR method was developed for the measurement of partition coefficients in n-octanol–water. For comparison purposes the method was also applied to some Tempo derivatives. The effect of temperature on the rotational correlation times and the nitrogen-14 hyperfine coupling constant of some of the spin probes was investigated. There is evidence for dimerization of CTMIO to form a biradical

A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model of penaeid (shrimp) distribution on the Australian Great Barrier Reef

A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model was developed for meta-populations of prawns (shrimp) occupying habitat patches across the Great Barrier Reef, where dispersal was localised and dispersal rates varied between species. Prawns were modelled as individuals moving to and from patches or cells according to pre-set decision rules. The landscape was simulated as a matrix of cells with each cell having a spatially explicit survival index for each species. Mixed species prawn assemblages moved over this simplified spatially explicit landscape. A low level of chronic random environmental disturbance was assumed (cyclone and tropical storm damage) with additional acute spatially confined disturbance due to commercial trawling, modelled as an increase in mortality affecting inter-specific competition. The general form of the results was for increased disturbance to favour good-colonising "generalist" species at the expense of good-competitor "specialists". Increasing fishing mortality (local patch extinctions) combined with poor colonising ability resulted in low equilibrium abundance for even the best competitor, while in the same circumstances the poorest competitor but best coloniser could have the highest equilibrium abundance. This mimics the switch from high-value prawn species to lower-value prawn species as trawl effort increases, reflected in historic catch and effort logbook data and reported anecdotaly from the north Queensland trawl fleet. To match the observed distribution and behaviour of prawn assemblages, a combination inter-species competition, a spatially explicit landscape, and a defined pattern of disturbance (trawling) was required. Modelling this combination could simulate not only general trends in spatial distribution of each of prawn species but also localised concentrations observed in the survey data

Reproductive biology of the red throat emperor Lethrinus miniatus (Pisces : Lethrinidae) from the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The reproductive biology of the red throat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus (Schneider, 1801) was examined in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. The species was found to display the characteristics of an incomplete metagynous hermaphrodite based on histological evidence and size frequency information. Over 95% of functional males possessed a remnant lumen, but there was no evidence of oocytes in the testes of males. A single transitional fish was sampled which had both ovarian and testicular tissue present in its gonad. Size frequency data showed that females dominated the smaller size classes with the majority of fish < 40 cm being females. Lethrinus miniatus had an extended spawning season from July-November, although spawning was more pronounced during the spring. Spawning was initiated earlier at lower latitudes. There was no particular size or age when sex change occurred since females older than 20 and males as young as 2-yrs old were sampled.