Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

The Relationship Between Solar Coronal X-Ray Brightness and Active Region Magnetic Fields: A Study Using High-Resolution Hinode Observations

By using high-resolution observations of nearly co-temporal and co-spatial Solar Optical Telescope spectropolarimeter and X-Ray Telescope coronal X-ray data onboard Hinode, we revisit the problematic relationship between global magnetic quantities and coronal X-ray brightness. Co-aligned vector magnetogram and X-ray data were used for this study. The total X-ray brightness over active regions is well correlated with integrated magnetic quantities such as the total unsigned magnetic flux, the total unsigned vertical current, and the area-integrated square of the vertical and horizontal magnetic fields. On accounting for the inter-dependence of the magnetic quantities, we inferred that the total magnetic flux is the primary determinant of the observed integrated X-ray brightness. Our observations indicate that a stronger coronal X-ray flux is not related to a higher non-potentiality of active-region magnetic fields. The data even suggest a slightly negative correlation between X-ray brightness and a proxy of active-region non-potentiality. Although there are small numerical differences in the established correlations, the main conclusions are qualitatively consistent over two different X-ray filters, the Al-poly and Ti-poly filters, which confirms the strength of our conclusions and validate and extend earlier studies that used low-resolution data. We discuss the implications of our results and the constraints they set on theories of solar coronal heating.

Performance of WRF-Chem over Indian region: Comparison with measurements

The aerosol mass concentrations over several Indian regions have been simulated using the online chemistry transport model, WRF-Chem, for two distinct seasons of 2011, representing the pre-monsoon (May) and post-monsoon (October) periods during the Indo-US joint experiment `Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX)'. The simulated values were compared with concurrent measurements. It is found that the model systematically underestimates near-surface BC mass concentrations as well as columnar Aerosol Optical Depths (AODs) from the measurements. Examining this in the light of the model-simulated meteorological parameters, we notice the model overestimates both planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and surface wind speeds, leading to deeper mixing and dispersion and hence lower surface concentrations of aerosols. Shortcoming in simulating rainfall pattern also has an impact through the scavenging effect. It also appears that the columnar AODs are influenced by the unrealistic emission scenarios in the model. Comparison with vertical profiles of BC obtained from aircraft-based measurements also shows a systematic underestimation by the model at all levels. It is seen that concentration of other aerosols, viz., dust and sea-salt are closely linked with meteorological conditions prevailing over the region. Dust is higher during pre-monsoon periods due to the prevalence of north-westerly winds that advect dust from deserts of west Asia into the Indo-Gangetic plain. Winds and rainfall influence sea-salt concentrations. Thus, the unrealistic simulation of wind and rainfall leads to model simulated dust and sea-salt also to deviate from the real values; which together with BC also causes underperformance of the model with regard to columnar AOD. It appears that for better simulations of aerosols over Indian region, the model needs an improvement in the simulation of the meteorology.

Retrieval and Multi-scale Validation of Soil Moisture from Multi-temporal SAR Data in a Semi-Arid Tropical Region

The current study presents an algorithm to retrieve surface Soil Moisture (SM) from multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The developed algorithm is based on the Cumulative Density Function (CDF) transformation of multi-temporal RADARSAT-2 backscatter coefficient (BC) to obtain relative SM values, and then converts relative SM values into absolute SM values using soil information. The algorithm is tested in a semi-arid tropical region in South India using 30 satellite images of RADARSAT-2, SMOS L2 SM products, and 1262 SM field measurements in 50 plots spanning over 4 years. The validation with the field data showed the ability of the developed algorithm to retrieve SM with RMSE ranging from 0.02 to 0.06 m(3)/m(3) for the majority of plots. Comparison with the SMOS SM showed a good temporal behaviour with RMSE of approximately 0.05 m(3)/m(3) and a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.9. The developed model is compared and found to be better than the change detection and delta index model. The approach does not require calibration of any parameter to obtain relative SM and hence can easily be extended to any region having time series of SAR data available.

Seismic hazard maps and spectrum for Patna considering region-specific seismotectonic parameters

The objective of this paper was to develop the seismic hazard maps of Patna district considering the region-specific maximum magnitude and ground motion prediction equation (GMPEs) by worst-case deterministic and classical probabilistic approaches. Patna, located near Himalayan active seismic region has been subjected to destructive earthquakes such as 1803 and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes. Based on the past seismicity and earthquake damage distribution, linear sources and seismic events have been considered at radius of about 500 km around Patna district center. Maximum magnitude (M (max)) has been estimated based on the conventional approaches such as maximum observed magnitude (M (max) (obs) ) and/or increment of 0.5, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics. Maximum of these three is taken as maximum probable magnitude for each source. Twenty-seven ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are found applicable for Patna region. Of these, suitable region-specific GMPEs are selected by performing the `efficacy test,' which makes use of log-likelihood. Maximum magnitude and selected GMPEs are used to estimate PGA and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1 s and mapped for worst-case deterministic approach and 2 and 10 % period of exceedance in 50 years. Furthermore, seismic hazard results are used to develop the deaggregation plot to quantify the contribution of seismic sources in terms of magnitude and distance. In this study, normalized site-specific design spectrum has been developed by dividing the hazard map into four zones based on the peak ground acceleration values. This site-specific response spectrum has been compared with recent Sikkim 2011 earthquake and Indian seismic code IS1893.

An approximation to the QoS aware throughput region of a tree network under IEEE 802.15.4 CSMA/CA with application to wireless sensor network design

In the context of wireless sensor networks, we are motivated by the design of a tree network spanning a set of source nodes that generate packets, a set of additional relay nodes that only forward packets from the sources, and a data sink. We assume that the paths from the sources to the sink have bounded hop count, that the nodes use the IEEE 802.15.4 CSMA/CA for medium access control, and that there are no hidden terminals. In this setting, starting with a set of simple fixed point equations, we derive explicit conditions on the packet generation rates at the sources, so that the tree network approximately provides certain quality of service (QoS) such as end-to-end delivery probability and mean delay. The structures of our conditions provide insight on the dependence of the network performance on the arrival rate vector, and the topological properties of the tree network. Our numerical experiments suggest that our approximations are able to capture a significant part of the QoS aware throughput region (of a tree network), that is adequate for many sensor network applications. Furthermore, for the special case of equal arrival rates, default backoff parameters, and for a range of values of target QoS, we show that among all path-length-bounded trees (spanning a given set of sources and the data sink) that meet the conditions derived in the paper, a shortest path tree achieves the maximum throughput. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel pppGpp binding site at the C-terminal region of the Rel enzyme from Mycobacterium smegmatis

Mycobacterium tuberculosis elicits the stringent response under unfavorable growth conditions, such as those encountered by the pathogen inside the host. The hallmark of this response is production of guanosine tetra-and pentaphosphates, collectively termed (p)ppGpp, which have pleiotropic effects on the bacterial physiology. As the stringent response is connected to survival under stress, it is now being targeted for developing inhibitors against bacterial persistence. The Rel enzyme in mycobacteria has two catalytic domains at its N-terminus that are involved in the synthesis and hydrolysis of (p)ppGpp, respectively. However, the function of the C-terminal region of the protein remained unknown. Here, we have identified a binding site for pppGpp in the C-terminal region of Rel. The binding affinity of pppGpp was quantified by isothermal titration calorimetry. The binding site was determined by crosslinking using the nucleotide analog azido-pppGpp, and examining the crosslink product by mass spectrometry. Additionally, mutations in the Rel protein were created to confirm the site of pppGpp binding by isothermal titration calorimetry. These mutants showed increased pppGpp synthesis and reduced hydrolytic activity. We believe that binding of pppGpp to Rel provides a feedback mechanism that allows the protein to detect and adjust the (p)ppGpp level in the cell. Our work suggests that such sites should also be considered while designing inhibitors to target the stringent response.

HuR Displaces Polypyrimidine Tract Binding Protein To Facilitate La Binding to the 3 ` Untranslated Region and Enhances Hepatitis C Virus Replication

HuR is a ubiquitous, RNA binding protein that influences the stability and translation of several cellular mRNAs. Here, we report a novel role for HuR, as a regulator of proteins assembling at the 3' untranslated region (UTR) of viral RNA in the context of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. HuR relocalizes from the nucleus to the cytoplasm upon HCV infection, interacts with the viral polymerase (NS5B), and gets redistributed into compartments of viral RNA synthesis. Depletion in HuR levels leads to a significant reduction in viral RNA synthesis. We further demonstrate that the interaction of HuR with the 3' UTR of the viral RNA affects the interaction of two host proteins, La and polypyrimidine tract binding protein (PTB), at this site. HuR interacts with La and facilitates La binding to the 3' UTR, enhancing La-mediated circularization of the HCV genome and thus viral replication. In addition, it competes with PTB for association with the 3' UTR, which might stimulate viral replication. Results suggest that HuR influences the formation of a cellular/viral ribonucleoprotein complex, which is important for efficient initiation of viral RNA replication. Our study unravels a novel strategy of regulation of HCV replication through an interplay of host and viral proteins, orchestrated by HuR. IMPORTANCE Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is highly dependent on various host factors for efficient replication of the viral RNA. Here, we have shown how a host factor (HuR) migrates from the nucleus to the cytoplasm and gets recruited in the protein complex assembling at the 3' untranslated region (UTR) of HCV RNA. At the 3' UTR, it facilitates circularization of the viral genome through interaction with another host factor, La, which is critical for replication. Also, it competes with the host protein PTB, which is a negative regulator of viral replication. Results demonstrate a unique strategy of regulation of HCV replication by a host protein through alteration of its subcellular localization and interacting partners. The study has advanced our knowledge of the molecular mechanism of HCV replication and unraveled the complex interplay between the host factors and viral RNA that could be targeted for therapeutic interventions.

A comprehensive analysis of the chorion locus in silkmoth

Despite more than 40 years of intense study, essential features of the silkmoth chorion (eggshell) are still not fully understood. To determine the precise structure of the chorion locus, we performed extensive EST analysis, constructed a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) contig, and obtained a continuous genomic sequence of 871,711 base pairs. We annotated 127 chorion genes in two segments interrupted by a 164 kb region with 5 non-chorion genes, orthologs of which were on chorion bearing scaffolds in 4 ditrysian families. Detailed transcriptome analysis revealed expression throughout choriogenesis of most chorion genes originally categorized as ``middle'', and evidence for diverse regulatory mechanisms including cis-elements, alternative splicing and promoter utilization, and antisense RNA. Phylogenetic analysis revealed multigene family associations and faster evolution of early chorion genes and transcriptionally active pseudogenes. Proteomics analysis identified 99 chorion proteins in the eggshell and micropyle localization of 1 early and 6 Hc chorion proteins.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Investigations of aerosol black carbon from a semi-urban site in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region

Long-term (2009-2012) data from ground-based measurements of aerosol black carbon (BC) from a semi-urban site, Pantnagar (29.0 degrees N, 79.5 degrees E, 231 m amsl), in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) near the Himalayan foothills are analyzed to study the regional characterization. Large variations are seen in BC at both diurnal and seasonal scales, associated with the mesoscale and synoptic meteorological processes, and local/regional anthropogenic activities. BC diurnal variations show two peaks (morning and evening) arising from the combined effects of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics and local emissions. The diurnal amplitudes as well as the rates of diurnal evolution are the highest in winter season, followed by autumn, and the lowest in summer-monsoon. BC exhibits nearly an inverse relation with mixing layer depth in all seasons; being strongest in winter (R-2 = 0.89) and weakest (R-2 = 0.33) in monsoon (July-August). Unlike BC, co-located aerosol optical depths (AOD) and aerosol absorption are highest in spring over IGP, probably due to the presence of higher abundances of aerosols (including dust) above the ABL (in the free troposphere). AOD (500 nm) showed annual peak (>0.6) in May-June, dominated by coarse mode, while fine mode aerosols dominated in late autumn and early winter. Aerosols profiles from CALIPSO show highest values close to the surface in winter/autumn, similar to the feature seen in surface BC, whereas at altitudes > 2 km, the extinction is maximum in spring/summer. WRF-Chem model is used to simulate BC temporal variations and then compared with observed BC. The model captures most of the important features of the diurnal and seasonal variations but significantly underestimated the observed BC levels, suggesting improvements in diurnal and seasonal varying BC emissions apart from the boundary layer processes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the under-estimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial pattern of mineral dust over the Indian region. We find that both meteorological forcing and emission formulation contribute to these differences. Since AOD is column integrated parameter, description of vertical profiles in both models, especially since elevated aerosol layers are often observed over Indian region, could be also a contributing factor. Additionally, differences in the prescription of the optical properties of BC between the models appear to affect the AOD simulations. We also compared simulation of sea-salt concentration in the two models and found that WRF-Chem underestimated its concentration vis-a-vis SPRINTARS. The differences in near-surface oceanic wind speeds appear to be the main source of this difference. In-spite of these differences, we note that there are similarities in their simulation of spatial patterns of various aerosol species (with each other and with observations) and hence models could be valuable tools for aerosol-related studies over the Indian region. Better estimation of emission inventories could improve aerosol-related simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Region-of-interest diffuse optical tomography system

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) using near-infrared light is a promising tool for non-invasive imaging of deep tissue. This technique is capable of quantitative reconstruction of absorption (mu(a)) and scattering coefficient (mu(s)) inhomogeneities in the tissue. The rationale for reconstructing the optical property map is that the absorption coefficient variation provides diagnostic information about metabolic and disease states of the tissue. The aim of DOT is to reconstruct the internal tissue cross section with good spatial resolution and contrast from noisy measurements non-invasively. We develop a region-of-interest scanning system based on DOT principles. Modulated light is injected into the phantom/tissue through one of the four light emitting diode sources. The light traversing through the tissue gets partially absorbed and scattered multiple times. The intensity and phase of the exiting light are measured using a set of photodetectors. The light transport through a tissue is diffusive in nature and is modeled using radiative transfer equation. However, a simplified model based on diffusion equation (DE) can be used if the system satisfies following conditions: (a) the optical parameter of the inhomogeneity is close to the optical property of the background, and (b) mu(s) of the medium is much greater than mu(a) (mu(s) >> mu(a)). The light transport through a highly scattering tissue satisfies both of these conditions. A discrete version of DE based on finite element method is used for solving the inverse problem. The depth of probing light inside the tissue depends on the wavelength of light, absorption, and scattering coefficients of the medium and the separation between the source and detector locations. Extensive simulation studies have been carried out and the results are validated using two sets of experimental measurements. The utility of the system can be further improved by using multiple wavelength light sources. In such a scheme, the spectroscopic variation of absorption coefficient in the tissue can be used to arrive at the oxygenation changes in the tissue. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Anthropogenic aerosol fraction over the Indian region: model simulations versus multi-satellite data analysis

Anthropogenic aerosols play a crucial role in our environment, climate, and health. Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in anthropogenic aerosols is essential to determine their impact. Aerosols are of natural and anthropogenic origin and together constitute a composite aerosol system. Information about either component needs elimination of the other from the composite aerosol system. In the present work we estimated the anthropogenic aerosol fraction (AF) over the Indian region following two different approaches and inter-compared the estimates. We espouse multi-satellite data analysis and model simulations (using the CHIMERE Chemical transport model) to derive natural aerosol distribution, which was subsequently used to estimate AF over the Indian subcontinent. These two approaches are significantly different from each other. Natural aerosol satellite-derived information was extracted in terms of optical depth while model simulations yielded mass concentration. Anthropogenic aerosol fraction distribution was studied over two periods in 2008: premonsoon (March-May) and winter (November-February) in regard to the known distinct seasonality in aerosol loading and type over the Indian region. Although both techniques have derived the same property, considerable differences were noted in temporal and spatial distribution. Satellite retrieval of AF showed maximum values during the pre-monsoon and summer months while lowest values were observed in winter. On the other hand, model simulations showed the highest concentration of AF in winter and the lowest during pre-monsoon and summer months. Both techniques provided an annual average AF of comparable magnitude (similar to 0.43 +/- 0.06 from the satellite and similar to 0.48 +/- 0.19 from the model). For winter months the model-estimated AF was similar to 0.62 +/- 0.09, significantly higher than that (0.39 +/- 0.05) estimated from the satellite, while during pre-monsoon months satellite-estimated AF was similar to 0.46 +/- 0.06 and the model simulation estimation similar to 0.53 +/- 0.14. Preliminary results from this work indicate that model-simulated results are nearer to the actual variation as compared to satellite estimation in view of general seasonal variation in aerosol concentrations.