900 resultados para UNCERTAINTY


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The adoption of e-business by the Australian construction industry lags other service and product industries. It is assumed that slow adoption rate does not reflect the maturity of the technology but is due to adoption impediments peculiar to the nature of construction. This chapter examines impediments to the uptake of e-business nationally and internationally. A systematic and extensive literature search of impediments (also referred to as obstacles, impediments or hindrances) to adoption has been undertaken and the findings discussed in this chapter. This review included more that 200 documents and these have been published in a searchable database as part of a larger research initiative funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The influence of levels of e-business maturity seen in other sectors such as retail, tourism and manufacturing was also captured and a number of major impediments were identified some including: privacy, trust, uncertainty of financial returns, lack of reliable measurement, fraud, lack of support and system maintenance. A total of 23 impediments were assessed in terms of impact to organisational type and size across reviewed documents. With this information it was possible to develop a reference framework for measuring maturity levels and readiness to uptake e-business in construction. Results have also shown that impediments to e-business adoption work differently according to organisational type and culture. Areas of training and people development need to be addressed. This would include a more sensitive approach to the nature of construction organisations, especially to those small and medium enterprises. Raising levels of awareness and creating trust for on-line collaboration are other aspects that need attention, which current studies confirm as lacking. An empirical study within construction, to validate these findings, forms the subsequent phase of this research.

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The decision as to which procurement system to adopt is a complex and challenging task for clients of construction projects. Despite a plethora of tools and techniques available for selecting a procurement method, clients are still uncertain about what method to adopt for a given construction project to achieve success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ procurement methods are selected by public sector clients in Queensland (QLD) and Western Australia (WA). Findings from workshops with senior managers in procurement selection revealed that traditional lump sum methods (TLS) are preferred even though alternative forms could be better suited for a given project. Participants of the workshops agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered for projects but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance meant the selection of TLS methods. It was perceived that only a limited number of contractors operating in the marketplace have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the non-traditional methods.

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The adoption of e-business by the Australian construction industry lags other service and product industries. It is assumed that slow adoption rate does not reflect the maturity of the technology but is due to adoption barriers peculiar to the nature of construction. This paper examines impediments to the uptake of e-business nationally and internationally. A systematic and extensive literature search of barriers (also referred to as obstacles, impediments or hindrances) to adoption has been undertaken and the findings discussed in this paper. This review included more that 200 documents and these have been published in a searchable database as part of a larger research initiative funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The influence of levels of e-business maturity seen in other sectors such as retail, tourism and manufacturing was also captured and a number of major barriers were identified some including: privacy, trust, uncertainty of financial returns, lack of reliable measurement, fraud, lack of support and system maintenance. A total of 23 barriers were assessed in terms of impact to organisational type and size across reviewed documents. With this information it was possible to develop a reference framework for measuring maturity levels and readiness to uptake e-business in construction. Results have also shown that barriers to e-business adoption work differently according to organisational type and culture. Areas of training and people development need to be addressed. This would include a more sensitive approach to the nature of construction organisations, especially to those small and medium enterprises. Raising levels of awareness and creating trust for on-line collaboration are other aspects that need attention, which current studies confirm as lacking. An empirical study within construction, to validate these findings, forms the subsequent phase of this research.

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This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.

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Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

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This study is an inquiry into the professional identity constructions of early childhood educators, where identity is conceptualised as social and contextual. Through a genealogical analysis of narratives of four Queensland early childhood teachers, the thesis renders as problematic universal and fixed notions of what it is to be an early childhood professional. The data are the four teachers’ professional life history narratives recounted through a series of conversational interviews with each participant. As they spoke about professionalism and ethics, these teachers struggled to locate themselves as professionals, as they drew on a number of dominant discourses available to them. These dominant discourses were located and mapped through analysis of the participants’ talk about relationships with parents, colleagues and authorities. Genealogical analysis enabled multiple readings of the ways in which the participants’ talk held together certainties and uncertainties, as they recounted their experiences and spoke of early childhood expertise, relational engagement and ethics. The thesis concludes with suggestions for ways to support early childhood teachers and pre-service teachers to both engage with and resist normative processes and expectations of professional identity construction. In so doing, multiple and contextual opportunities can be made available when it comes to being professional and ‘doing’ ethics. The thesis makes an argument for new possibilities for thinking and speaking professional identities that include both certainty and uncertainty, comfort and discomfort, and these seemingly oppositional terms are held together in tension, with an insistence that both are necessary and true. The use of provocations offers tools through which pre-service teachers, teachers and teacher educators can access new positions associated with certainties and uncertainties in professional identities. These new positions call for work that supports experiences of ‘de-comfort’ – that is, experiences that encourage early childhood educators to step away from the comfort zones that can become part of expertise, professional relationships and ethics embedded within normative representations of what it is to be an early childhood professional.

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Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is increasingly seen as an imperative for sustainable business and there is a growing literature on the effect of CSR on corporate reputation. Despite this, a pall of ambiguity and uncertainty remains around what CSR means and how it should be practiced. This paper offers a unique addition to the body of literature to date by revealing that CSR is an emerging industry in Australia, which is in the process of developing its own reputation as a set of business practices. The paper is based on exploratory qualitative research using a case study methodology. Interviews were conducted with key actors within the industry to investigate shared understandings of what CSR means, perceptions of CSR practice and of the industry as a whole, and who is involved in shaping these perceptions. The research revealed that the CSR industry in Australia is in its early stages of development and is therefore in need of increased internal cooperation if it is to develop a strong reputation.

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President’s Message AITPM President’s Message, July 2009 Hello fellow AITPM members, It’s now very early July so many Australians are going to experience a range of new, or increases in, fees, charges, and perhaps taxes by State and local governments. For example, Queenslanders are to be hit at the petrol pump, no longer living with the luxury of the State’s previous 8c per litre fuel subsidy, bringing general motorists’ fuel costs into line with the other States. A consolation is that they now don’t have to live with the real or perceived “price gouging” that has appeared in the past to make Queensland prices much closer than 8c to those in other States. Environmental lobbyists argue that this Government’s decision brings public transport costs closer to parity with private transport. However, my sense from sloppy petrol price elasticities is that the State’s motorists will get used to the reversal of what was a reverse tax pretty quickly, an amount which can be less than day-of-the week fluctuation. On the other hand, withholding this State revenue may help in some way the funding of the several major public transport infrastructure projects in progress; not to mention some of the cost of running the Transit Authority’s expanding service commitments. Other policy actions, such as a Federal Government review of taxation on employees’ package vehicles, which might discourage rather than encourage excess kilometres travelled, may have a greater environmental benefit. Of course, a downside is that many vehicles used so are Australian built, and discouraging fleet turnover may damage an industry which faces ever increasing uncertainty, and particularly at the present, is in need of some care and attention. I for one hope to this end that the new 4 cylinder (1.8L petrol or 2L diesel) so called “true Holden” Cruze and Toyota’s pending Camry Hybrid are both roaring successes, and will be taken up in droves as fleet and employee use vehicles. I’m not sure what drive-trains Ford and Holden plan to drop into their next full sized models but even if they’re not Australian sourced, let’s hope they coordinate the requisite performance expected by the “Aussie Battler” with suitable green credentials. I am also encouraged to see that already many Government fleet vehicles are smaller in size, but still fit for purpose. For instance, my local police station uses the Camry based Aurion as a district car. I close again in reminding everyone that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

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To navigate successfully in a previously unexplored environment, a mobile robot must be able to estimate the spatial relationships of the objects of interest accurately. A Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) sys- tem employs its sensors to build incrementally a map of its surroundings and to localize itself in the map simultaneously. The aim of this research project is to develop a SLAM system suitable for self propelled household lawnmowers. The proposed bearing-only SLAM system requires only an omnidirec- tional camera and some inexpensive landmarks. The main advantage of an omnidirectional camera is the panoramic view of all the landmarks in the scene. Placing landmarks in a lawn field to define the working domain is much easier and more flexible than installing the perimeter wire required by existing autonomous lawnmowers. The common approach of existing bearing-only SLAM methods relies on a motion model for predicting the robot’s pose and a sensor model for updating the pose. In the motion model, the error on the estimates of object positions is cumulated due mainly to the wheel slippage. Quantifying accu- rately the uncertainty of object positions is a fundamental requirement. In bearing-only SLAM, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of landmark position should be uniform along the observed bearing. Existing methods that approximate the PDF with a Gaussian estimation do not satisfy this uniformity requirement. This thesis introduces both geometric and proba- bilistic methods to address the above problems. The main novel contribu- tions of this thesis are: 1. A bearing-only SLAM method not requiring odometry. The proposed method relies solely on the sensor model (landmark bearings only) without relying on the motion model (odometry). The uncertainty of the estimated landmark positions depends on the vision error only, instead of the combination of both odometry and vision errors. 2. The transformation of the spatial uncertainty of objects. This thesis introduces a novel method for translating the spatial un- certainty of objects estimated from a moving frame attached to the robot into the global frame attached to the static landmarks in the environment. 3. The characterization of an improved PDF for representing landmark position in bearing-only SLAM. The proposed PDF is expressed in polar coordinates, and the marginal probability on range is constrained to be uniform. Compared to the PDF estimated from a mixture of Gaussians, the PDF developed here has far fewer parameters and can be easily adopted in a probabilistic framework, such as a particle filtering system. The main advantages of our proposed bearing-only SLAM system are its lower production cost and flexibility of use. The proposed system can be adopted in other domestic robots as well, such as vacuum cleaners or robotic toys when terrain is essentially 2D.

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Background: Blood for transfusion may become contaminated at any point between collection and transfusion and may result in bacteraemia (the presence of bacteria in the blood),severe illness or even death for the blood recipient. Donor arm skin is one potential source of blood contamination, so it is usual to cleanse the skin with an antiseptic before blood donation. One-step and two-step alcohol based antiseptic regimens are both commonly advocated but there is uncertainty as to which is most effective.----- Objectives: To assess the effects of cleansing the skin of blood donors with alcohol in a one-step compared with alcohol in a two-step procedure to prevent contamination of collected blood or bacteraemia in the recipient.----- Search strategy: We searched the Cochrane Wounds Group Specialised Register (March 10 2009); The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials(CENTRAL) The Cochrane Library 2009, Issue 1; Ovid MEDLINE - (1950 to February Week 4 2009); Ovid EMBASE - (1980 to 2009 Week 9); and EBSCO CINAHL - (1982 to February Week 4 2009). We also searched the reference lists of key papers.----- Selection criteria: All randomised trials (RCTs) comparing alcohol based donor skin cleansing in a one-step versus a two-step process that includes alcohol and any other antiseptic for pre-venepuncture skin cleansing were considered. Quasi randomised trials were to have been considered in the absence of RCTs.----- Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion.----- Main results: No studies (RCTs or quasi RCTs) met the inclusion criteria. Authors’ conclusions We did not identify any eligible studies for inclusion in this review. It is therefore unclear whether a two-step, alcohol followed by antiseptic skin cleansing process prior to blood donation confers any reduction in the risk of blood contamination or bacteraemia in blood recipients, or conversely whether a one-step process increases risk above that associated with a two-step process.

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Die Anforderungen an die Qualität der Messergebnisse steigen stetig. Insbesondere die Bestimmung der Messunsicherheit mikrobiologischer Analyseergebnisse, die von einigen Labors durchgeführt wird, aber noch nicht vorgeschrieben ist, stellt viele Mikrobiologielabors vor eine große Herausforderung. Ziel ist eine Vorgehensweise, die sowohl möglichst genau als auch zeit- und kosteneffizient ist.

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There is increasing agreement that understanding complexity is important for project management because of difficulties associated with decision-making and goal attainment which appear to stem from complexity. However the current operational definitions of complex projects, based upon size and budget, have been challenged and questions have been raised about how complexity can be measured in a robust manner that takes account of structural, dynamic and interaction elements. Thematic analysis of data from 25 in-depth interviews of project managers involved with complex projects, together with an exploration of the literature reveals a wide range of factors that may contribute to project complexity. We argue that these factors contributing to project complexity may define in terms of dimensions, or source characteristics, which are in turn subject to a range of severity factors. In addition to investigating definitions and models of complexity from the literature and in the field, this study also explores the problematic issues of ‘measuring’ or assessing complexity. A research agenda is proposed to further the investigation of phenomena reported in this initial study.

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This study explores whether the relation between internal audit quality and firm performance is associated with firm characteristics of information asymmetry and uncertainty (growth opportunities) and certain governance controls (audit committee effectiveness). The results from this preliminary study of 60 Malaysian companies show that the association between internal audit quality and firm performance is stronger for firms with high growth opportunities and that this positive association is weakened by increasing audit committee independence. These findings demonstrate the internal auditors conflicting roles and question the governance recommendations that require all members of the audit committee to be non-executive directors.

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Any cycle of production and exchange – be it economic, cultural or aesthetic – involves an element of risk. It involves uncertainty, unpredictability, and a potential for new insight and innovation (the boom) as well as blockages, crises and breakdown (the bust). In performance, the risks are plentiful – economic, political, social, physical and psychological. The risks people are willing to take depend on their position in the exchange (performer, producer, venue manager or spectator), and their aesthetic preferences. This paper considers the often uncertain, confronting or ‘risky’ moment of exchange between performer, spectator and culture in Live Art practices. Encompassing body art, autobiographical art, site-specific art and other sorts of performative intervention in the public sphere, Live Art eschews the artifice of theatre, breaking down barriers between art and life, artist and spectator, to speak back to the public sphere, and challenge assumptions about bodies, identities, memories, relationships and histories. In the process, Live Art frequently privileges an uncertain, confrontational or ‘risky’ mode of exchange between performer, spectator and culture, as a way of challenging power structures. This paper examines the moment of exchange in terms of risk, vulnerability, responsibility and ethics. Why the romance with ‘risky’ behaviours and exchanges? Who is really taking a risk? What risk? With whose permission (or lack thereof)? What potential does a ‘risky’ exchange hold to destabilise aesthetic, social or political norms? Where lies the fine line between subversive intervention in the public sphere and sheer self-indulgence? What are the social and ethical implications of a moment of exchange that puts bodies, beliefs or social boundaries at ‘risk’? In this paper, these questions are addressed with reference to historical and contemporary practices under the broadly defined banner of Live Art, from the early work of Abrovamic and Burden, through to contemporary Australian practitioners like Fiona McGregor.

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The evolution of organisms that cause healthcare acquired infections (HAI) puts extra stress on hospitals already struggling with rising costs and demands for greater productivity and cost containment. Infection control can save scarce resources, lives, and possibly a facility’s reputation, but statistics and epidemiology are not always sufficient to make the case for the added expense. Economics and Preventing Healthcare Acquired Infection presents a rigorous analytic framework for dealing with this increasingly serious problem. ----- Engagingly written for the economics non-specialist, and brimming with tables, charts, and case examples, the book lays out the concepts of economic analysis in clear, real-world terms so that infection control professionals or infection preventionists will gain competence in developing analyses of their own, and be confident in the arguments they present to decision-makers. The authors: ----- Ground the reader in the basic principles and language of economics. ----- Explain the role of health economists in general and in terms of infection prevention and control. ----- Introduce the concept of economic appraisal, showing how to frame the problem, evaluate and use data, and account for uncertainty. ----- Review methods of estimating and interpreting the costs and health benefits of HAI control programs and prevention methods. ----- Walk the reader through a published economic appraisal of an infection reduction program. ----- Identify current and emerging applications of economics in infection control. ---- Economics and Preventing Healthcare Acquired Infection is a unique resource for practitioners and researchers in infection prevention, control and healthcare economics. It offers valuable alternate perspective for professionals in health services research, healthcare epidemiology, healthcare management, and hospital administration. ----- Written for: Professionals and researchers in infection control, health services research, hospital epidemiology, healthcare economics, healthcare management, hospital administration; Association of Professionals in Infection Control (APIC), Society for Healthcare Epidemiologists of America (SHEA)