Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

Validation and application of reporter gene assays for the determination of estrogenic and androgenic endocrine disruptor activity in sport supplements.

Previously developed estrogen and androgen mammalian reporter gene assays (RGAs) were assessed for their potential use as a quantitative screening method in the detection of estrogenic and androgenic endocrine disruptors (EDs) in sport supplements. The validation of both RGAs coupled with dispersive solid phase extraction (dSPE) was performed in accordance with European Commission Decision EC/2002/6579 for biological screening methods. Decision limits (CCa) and detection capabilities (CCß) were established for both the estrogen and androgen RGAs. All samples were compliant with CCa and CCß in both bioassays. Recovery rates were 96 % for 17ß-estradiol and 115 % for dihydrotestosterone as obtained in their corresponding RGA. Both estrogens and androgens were stable in samples for more than 3 weeks, when stored at -20 °C. Specificity, good repeatability (coefficients of variation (CV), 12–25 %), reproducibility and robustness of both bioassays were also observed. Four different ED modes of action were determined for estrogens and androgens in 53 sport supplements, using the validated RGAs. This study revealed that 89 % of the investigated sport supplements contained estrogenic EDs and 51 % contained androgenic compounds. In conclusion, both bioassays are suitable for sport supplement screening of estrogenic and androgenic EDs.

Treatment Foster Care for improving outcomes in children and young people (Review)

Background: Treatment foster care (TFC) is a foster family-based intervention that aims to provide young people (and, where appropriate, their families) with a tailored programme designed to effect positive changes in their lives. TFC was designed specifically to cater for the needs of children whose difficulties or circumstances place them at risk of multiple placements and/or more restrictive placements such as hospital or secure residential or youth justice settings.

Objectives: To assess the impact of TFC on psychosocial and behavioural outcomes, delinquency, placement stability, and discharge status for children and adolescents who require out-of-home placement.

Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CENTRAL) 2006 (Issue 4), MEDLINE (1966 to January 2007), CINAHL (1982 to December 2006), PsycINFO (1872 to January 2007), ASSIA (1987 to January 2007), LILACS (1982 to January 2007), ERIC (1966 to January 2007), Sociological Abstracts (1963 to January 2007), and the National Research Register 2006 (Issue 4).

Selection criteria: Included studies were randomised controlled trials investigating the effectiveness of TFC with children and young people up to the age of 18 who, for reasons of severe medical, social, psychological and behavioural problems, were placed in out of home care in restrictive settings (e.g. secure residential care, psychiatric hospital) or at risk of placement in such settings.

Data collection and analysis: Titles and abstracts identified in the search were independently assessed for eligibility by the two authors (GM and WT) who also extracted and entered into REVMAN. Date were synthesised on the few occasions where this was possible. Results are presented in tabular, graphical (forest plots) and textual form.

Main results: Five studies including 390 participants were included in this review. Data suggest that treatment foster care may be a useful intervention for children and young people with complex emotional, psychological and behavioural need, who are at risk of placements in nonfamily settings that restrict their liberty and opportunities for social inclusion.

Authors’ conclusions: Although the inclusion criteria for this systematic review set a study design threshold higher than that of previous reviews, the results mirror those of earlier reviews but also highlights the tendency of the perceived effectiveness of popular interventions to outstrip their evidence base. Whilst the results of individual studies generally indicate that TFC is a promising intervention for children and youth experiencing mental health problems, behavioural problems or problems of delinquency, the evidence base is less robust than that usually reported.The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews is a peer reviewed, international journal, published electronically each month. The 2010 Inpact Factor for the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was 6.185.The CDSR is now ranked in the top 10 of the 151 in the Medicine, General & Internal category.

Global change alters the stability of food webs

Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However 'change' is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties as precipitation, nutrient cycling and temperature. How such changes might affect species interactions is important, not just through the presence or absence of interactions, but also because the patterning of interaction strengths among species is intimately associated with community stability. Interaction strengths encompass such properties as feeding rates and assimilation efficiencies, and encapsulate functionally important information with regard to ecosystem processes. Interaction strengths represent the pathways and transfer of energy through an ecosystem. We review the best empirical data available detailing the frequency distribution of interaction strengths in communities. We present the underlying (but consistent) pattern of species interactions and discuss the implications of this patterning. We then examine how such a basic pattern might be affected given various scenarios of 'change' and discuss the consequences for community stability and ecosystem functioning.

Weak interactions, omnivory and emergent food-web properties

Empirical studies have shown that, in real ecosystems, species-interaction strengths are generally skewed in their distribution towards weak interactions. Some theoretical work also suggests that weak interactions, especially in omnivorous links, are important for the local stability of a community at equilibrium. However, the majority of theoretical studies use uniform distributions of interaction strengths to generate artificial communities for study. We investigate the effects of the underlying interaction-strength distribution upon the return time, permanence and feasibility of simple Lotka-Volterra equilibrium communities. We show that a skew towards weak interactions promotes local and global stability only when omnivory is present. It is found that skewed interaction strengths are an emergent property of stable omnivorous communities, and that this skew towards weak interactions creates a dynamic constraint maintaining omnivory. Omnivory is more likely to occur when omnivorous interactions are skewed towards weak interactions. However, a skew towards weak interactions increases the return time to equilibrium, delays the recovery of ecosystems and hence decreases the stability of a community. When no skew is imposed, the set of stable omnivorous communities shows an emergent distribution of skewed interaction strengths. Our results apply to both local and global concepts of stability and are robust to the definition of a feasible community. These results are discussed in the light of empirical data and other theoretical studies, in conjunction with their broader implications for community assembly.

2D silhouette and 3D skeletal models for human detection and tracking

In this paper we propose a statistical model for detection and tracking of human silhouette and the corresponding 3D skeletal structure in gait sequences. We follow a point distribution model (PDM) approach using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The problem of non-lineal PCA is partially resolved by applying a different PDM depending of pose estimation; frontal, lateral and diagonal, estimated by Fisher's linear discriminant. Additionally, the fitting is carried out by selecting the closest allowable shape from the training set by means of a nearest neighbor classifier. To improve the performance of the model we develop a human gait analysis to take into account temporal dynamic to track the human body. The incorporation of temporal constraints on the model increase reliability and robustness.

Quantitative and qualitative trapping of volatile methylated selenium species entrained through nitric acid

Quantification and speciation of volatile selenium (Se) fluxes in remote areas has not been feasible previously, due to the absence of a simple and easily transportable trapping technique that preserves speciation. This paper presents a chemo-trapping method with nitric acid (HNO3) for volatile Se species, which preserves speciation of trapped compounds. The recovery and speciation of dimethylselenide (DMSe) and dimethyl diselenide (DMDSe) entrained through both concentrated nitric acid and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) were compared by HPLC-ICP-MS and HPLC-HG-AFS analyses. It was demonstrated that trap reproducibility was better for nitric acid and a recovery of 65.2 +/- 1.9% for DMSe and 81.3 +/- 3.9% for DMDSe was found in nitric acid traps. HPLC-ES-MS identified dimethyl selenoxide (DMSeO) as the trapped product of DMSe. Methylseleninic acid (MSA) was identified to be the single product of DMDSe trapping. These oxidized derivatives have a high stability and low volatility, which makes nitric acid a highly attractive trapping liquid for volatile Se species and enables reconstruction of the speciation of those species. The presented trapping method is simple, quantifiable, reproducible, and robust and can potentially be applied to qualitatively and quantitatively study Se volatilization in a wide range of natural environments.

Centres, Peripheries and Party Systems: nested secession processes in Great Britain and Ireland

The seminal work of Lipset and Rokkan, which explores how party systems evolved organically from nineteenth-century roots, has generally been applied in states which have enjoyed a long-standing territorial identity. Their model's emphasis on stability and predictability can, however, be reconciled with circumstances where the very identity of the state itself is an issue. This article explores the capacity of the model to explain party divisions in three nested contexts: the pre-1922 United Kingdom, which encountered problems with its Celtic peripheries, and especially with Ireland; independent Ireland, where a unique party system developed, largely in response to a broader historical and geographical context; and Northern Ireland, where party politics fossilised in the 1880s, and began to unfreeze only in the 1970s. The article argues that the Lipset–Rokkan model casts valuable light on these processes, which in turn contribute to the theoretical richness of the model.

Implementation and testing of Lanczos-based algorithms for Random-Phase Approximation eigenproblems

The treatment of the Random-Phase Approximation Hamiltonians, encountered in different frameworks, like time-dependent density functional theory or Bethe-Salpeter equation, is complicated by their non-Hermicity. Compared to their Hermitian Hamiltonian counterparts, computational methods for the treatment of non-Hermitian Hamiltonians are often less efficient and less stable, sometimes leading to the breakdown of the method. Recently [Gruning et al. Nano Lett. 8 (2009) 28201, we have identified that such Hamiltonians are usually pseudo-Hermitian. Exploiting this property, we have implemented an algorithm of the Lanczos type for Random-Phase Approximation Hamiltonians that benefits from the same stability and computational load as its Hermitian counterpart, and applied it to the study of the optical response of carbon nanotubes. We present here the related theoretical grounds and technical details, and study the performance of the algorithm for the calculation of the optical absorption of a molecule within the Bethe-Salpeter equation framework. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reactions of nitrogen and oxygen surface groups in nanoporous carbons under inert and reducing atmospheres

The reactions of surface functional groups have an important role in controlling conversion of char nitrogen to NOx during coal combustion. This study involved an investigation of the thermal stability and reactions of nitrogen surface functional groups in nanoporous carbons. Four suites of carbons, which were used as models for coal chars, were prepared with a wide range of nitrogen and oxygen contents and types of functional groups. The porous structures of the carbons were characterized by gas adsorption methods while chemical analysis, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and X-ray near edge structure spectroscopy were used to characterize the surface functional groups. Temperature programmed desorption and temperature programmed reduction methods were used to study the reactivity of the surface functional groups during heat treatment under inert and reducing conditions. Heat treatment studies show that the order of stability of the functional groups is quaternary nitrogen > pyridinic > pyrrolic > pyridine N-oxide. Pyridine N-oxide surface groups desorb NO and form N-2 via surface reactions at low temperature. Pyrrolic and pyridinic functional groups decompose and react with surface species to give NH3, HCN, and N-2 as desorption products, but most pyrrolic groups are preferentially converted to pyridinic and quaternary nitrogen. The main desorption product is N-2. Approximately 15-40 wt % of the original nitrogen was retained in the carbons mainly as quaternary nitrogen after heat treatment to 1673 K. The results are discussed in terms of decomposition ranges for surface functional groups and reaction mechanisms of surface species.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Equal Security: Europe and the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, 1968-1976

SALT threatened to institutionalize a bipolar world order. NWS and NNWS alike feared that the US and SU will prioritize global security principles such as systemic stability and conflict stability to Atlantic and European security. Endangered was Europe’s security and position in the future world order. Parity in strategic weapons invalidated the US nuclear umbrella. An ABM deployment and a non-transfer regime threatened Europe’s nuclear defence options. The danger of a Limited War or a denuclearization of Central Europe led to a European co-ordination on nuclear arms control to assure the preservation of the West and the future of Europe.

Comparative performances of birnessite and cryptomelane MnO as electrode material in neutral aqueous lithium salt for supercapacitor application

Na-doped Birnessite-type manganese oxide (d-MnO) has been synthesized using the chemical method and characterized through X-ray diffraction and SEM, showing the lamellar structure and high crystal structure. A comparative study of the electrochemical performances of this material with those of the commercial Cryptomelane-type MnO has then been undertaken in ten neutral aqueous electrolytes for supercapacitor applications. Aqueous electrolytes, containing a lithium salt, LiX (where X = SO , NO, CHCO , CHSO, ClO , CHCO, TFSI, Beti, BOB, or Lact), have been first prepared under neutral pH conditions to reach the salt concentration, providing the maximum in conductivity. Their transport properties are then investigated through conductivities, viscosities, and self-diffusion coefficient measurements. Second, the thermal behaviors of these electrolytic aqueous solutions are then evaluated by using a differential scanning calorimeter from (213.15 to 473.15) K in order to access their liquid range temperatures. Cyclic voltammograms (CV) in three electrode configurations are thereafter investigated using Na Birnessite and Cryptomelane as working electrode material from (-0.05 to 1.5) V versus Ag/AgCl at various sweep rates from (2 to 100) mV·s. According to anion nature/structure and manganese oxide material type, different CV responses are observed, presenting a pure capacitive profile for Beti or CH CO and an additional pseudocapacitive signal for the smallest anions, such as ClO and NO . The capacitances, energies, and efficiencies are finally calculated. These results indicate clearly that electrolytes based on a mineral lithium salt under neutral pH condition and high salt concentration (up to 5 mol·L) have better electrochemical performances than organic ones, up to 1.4 V with good material stability and capacity retention. The relationship between transport properties, electrostatic and steric hindrance considerations of hydrated ions, and their electrochemical performances is discussed in order to understand further the lithium intercalation-deintercalation processes in the lamellar or tunnel structure of investigated MnO. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

Explaining Prolonged Silences in Transitional Justice: The Disappeared in Cyprus and Spain

The article examines why some postconflict societies defer the recovery of those who forcibly disappeared as a result of political violence, even after a fully fledged democratic regime is consolidated. The prolonged silences in Cyprus and Spain contradict the experience of other countries such as Bosnia, Guatemala, and South Africa, where truth recovery for disappeared or missing persons was a central element of the transition to peace and democracy. Exhumations of mass graves containing the victims from the two periods of violence in Cyprus (1963–1974) and the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) was delayed up until the early 2000s. Cyprus and Spain are well suited to explain both prolonged silences in transitional justice and the puzzling decision to become belated truth seekers. The article shows that in negotiated transitions, a subtle elite agreement links the non-instrumental use of the past with the imminent needs for political stability and nascent democratization. As time passes, selective silence becomes an entrenched feature of the political discourse and democratic institutions, acquiring a hegemonic status and prolonging the silencing of violence.

Analysis of Load Impact on Small-signal Stability based on Load Active Power Sensitivity

While load flow conditions vary with different loads, the small-signal stability of the entire system is closely related with to the locations, capacities and models of loads. In this paper, load impacts with different capacities and models on the small-signal stability are analysed. In the real large-scale power system case, the load sensitivity which denotes the sensitivity of the eigenvalue with respect to the load active power is introduced and applied to rank the loads. The loads with high sensitivity are also considered.