How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Ungdomars fysiska aktivitet och dess betydelse för prestationen i skolan

This study where designed to investigate if there are any positive relationship between the extent of physical activity during adolescent's leisure time and the academic performance, and also if there are any negative relationship between the academic performance and the time spent in front of the television or computers. Another part of the study tried to find out if physical activity has a direct and immediate influence on the performance in school. 91 pupils (51 girls and 40 boys) in the 8:th year of the Swedish primary school, from three different schools participated in the study. All 91 pupils first responded to a questionnaire concerning there activities in leisure time. They where then tested in a mathematical test and the results where compared with the extent of physical activity and TV/computer time they had stated in the questionnaire. 53 of the pupils also participated in the part of the study where direct and immediate influences of physical activity where tested. They where tested in two different but similar mathematical tests. Before the first test all pupils had a walk for about 3 km. The second test where accomplished whiteout preceding walk.Pupils who spend one hour or less/week on physical activity had significant lower mean score on the mathematical test then the pupils who spend more than one hour/week on physical activities, (Mann-Whitney U-test: Z= -2,486, p= 0,0129). Boys who spent 10,5 hours or less/week in front of the TV/computer had significant higher mean score than the boys who spent more than 10,5 hours/week in front of the TV/computer. No significant differences in the results of the two different tests, one white and one whiteout preceding walk, were observed.

Kan ett synintryck upphäva en ljudillusion? : En undersökning av oktavillusionen kopplad till visuella stimuli i form av noter

The present study origins from Diana Deutschs work with the octave illusion and investigates if musically trained subjects can give a more correct perception of the octave illusion if their visual senses also get stimulated in form of scores.Ten subjects, with over 20 years experience playing an instrument, participated in the investigation. The result shows that a more correct perception of the octave illusion depends on the educational level in scorereading. Four out of five subjects who valued their knowledge in scorereading as being good or very good reported that the score corresponded to what they could hear in the right ear, which is connected to the dominant hemisphere. When they were instructed to focus on both ears three of these subjects reported that the score corresponded to what they could hear in the left ear, but that they could not hear the lower tone in the right ear. As the scores for the right ear were equal for the identical soundexamples this perception could be an indication that stimuli are percieved as being complex and the interpretation is alternated to the non dominant hemisphere.

Muntlig framställning : att tolka och förstå kunskapskraven i nationellt prov SVA 1

Den här studien har haft som syfte att studera om kvalitetskraven i betygsskalan stämmer överens mellan nationellt prov i SVA1 och motsvarande kursplan svenska som andraspråk 1 (SVA1) samt på vilket sätt det nationella provet underlättar tolkningen av kunskapskraven i kursplanen för SVA1. Undersökningen begränsar sig till att omfatta enbart den muntliga delen, delprov A muntlig framställning. För att beskriva och analysera vilka kunskaper som anses vara eftersträvansvärda i muntlig framställning har en kvalitativ innehållsanalys genomförts som ger en grundmodell till den efterföljande kunskapsanalysen. Resultaten från studiens innehållsanalys visar fram en hur processen kring den muntliga framställningen utgår från den retoriska arbetsmodellen med ett gediget förberedande arbete som följs upp med anförande och avslutas med elevresponser. Resultatet från kunskapsanalysen visar hur eleverna behöver behärska en kombination av kunskapsformerna episteme, techné och fronesis för att uppfylla betygskraven på de högre nivåerna. Studiens slutsatser är att kvalitetskraven stämmer överens mellan det nationella provets bedömningsmatris och kursplanen i svenska som andraspråk 1 (SVA 1) vad gäller bedömningen av elevens språkliga kvaliteter. Dessutom går det att dra slutsatsen att de krav på anpassning till det retoriska sammanhanget också är krav som återfinns i kursplanen men beskrivs mer allmänt i ett språkutvecklande perspektiv vilket underlättar tolkningen av kunskapskraven i kursplanen. Studien visar hur eleven för att få det lägsta betyget (E) behöver kunskaper om en retorisk framställning och att eleven kan presentera ett förberett innehåll inför en publik.

Kvinnans tillit till amning : En enkätstudie på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland

Amningsfrekvensen i Värmland sjunker och är låg jämfört med riket. En bidragande faktor till den sjunkande amningsfrekvensen är bristen på tillit till amning. Det är viktigt att kunna identifiera kvinnor med låg tillit till amning för att vända den sjunkande amningsfrekvensen och stärka kvinnan i rollen som moder. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka kvinnors tillit till amning på Barnbördshuset (BB) och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland. Med enkäten BSES-SF identifieras kvinnor med låg tillit till amning och kvinnor som behöver ett ökat amningsstöd efter förlossning. Design/Metod: Studien utfördes med kvantitativ ansats. Data inhämtades från enkäten BSES-SF som besvarats av 70 kvinnor på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland. All data analyserades genom SPSS. Resultat: De flesta kvinnor ansåg att det var mycket viktigt med en fungerande amning och när kvinnorna skattade amningens betydelse framkom ett medelvärde på 8,66 där 0=inte alls viktigt och 10=mycket viktigt. Kvinnor som ammat tidigare skattade sin upplevda amningserfarenhet som mycket god. Varje enskild fråga på BSES-SF jämfördes mellan kvinnorna som vårdats på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen. Det framkom en skillnad på åtta frågor där kvinnorna på Eftervårdsmottagningen skattade en högre tillit till amning jämfört med kvinnorna på BB. Utifrån totalsumman på BSES-SF med ett poängintervall mellan 14-70, framkom det att tilliten till amning skattades högre hos kvinnorna på Eftervårdsmottagningen (M=56,54) än på BB (M=49,88). Slutsats och klinisk tillämpbarhet: BSES-SF kan utifrån studiens resultat vara ett användbart verktyg, framförallt på BB där kvinnorna skattat en lägre tillit till amning. Förstföderskor och omföderskor som upplevt en komplicerad förlossning kan vara i behov av större insatser av amningsstöd. Studiens resultat kan medföra att barnmorskan blir extra uppmärksam på de kvinnor vars amning inte fungerar och där extra stöd behövs för att öka tilliten.

Sexscener med filmmusik av kvinnliga kompositörer : En undersökning av filmmusik i sexscener i fyra moderna västerländska filmer, där USA är ett av produktionsländerna

I detta arbete analyseras filmmusiken, skriven av kvinnliga kompositörer, som spelas i sexscener i fyra moderna spelfilmer där USA är ett av produktionsländerna. Vassili Neplokhs analysmetod består av fem musikaliska parametrar. Författaren sammanställer även forskning som berör ämnet inom bland annat musikpsykologi och utökar en redan fungerande metod med fler parametrar som grundar sig i musikpsykologi. Avslutningsvis jämförs studiens resultat med resultat av en tidigare utförd undersökning av manliga kompositörers filmmusik i sexscener.

The body keeps the score

American animator Robert Breer has been credited in introducing the first visual bomb to cinema in his loop film Image by Images I (1954), Two abstract animated films by Robert Breer are examined: 69 (1968 5 minutes) and Fuji (1974 10 minutes). Using Merleau-Ponty’s phenomenological perspective, though these films are not representational or photographic in the traditional sense it is argued that they are still able to talk to us about real experiences because ‘the lived perspective, that which we actually perceive, is not a geometric or photographic one.’(Merleau-Ponty, 1964b: 14) 69 provides a metaphor for a system that collapses and Fuji as an articulation of that embodied seeing required for train travel. It is argued that Breer’s work in its explorations of style ahead of content is research into an act of viewing that offers a contemporary simulation of the impact of a traumatic experience on the body. Just as one cannot grab each object in the landscape at the speed of train travel nor can one grab or understand each frame that is presented to the retina of a Robert Breer film. What is required to attain “stillness” is a more dissociated way of looking that allows the images to wash over you. Such a “stillness” may be more about suppression than contemplation and could involve a process of metamorphosis.

Parental use of restrictive feeding practices and child BMI z-score. A 3-year prospective cohort study

This study examines associations between parental feeding restriction at baseline and child body mass index (BMI) z-score at 3-year follow-up. Parents of 204 5–6-year-old and 188 10–12-year-old children completed the Child Feeding Questionnaire at baseline (2002/3). In 2002/3 and 2005/6, children's BMI z-score was calculated from measured height and weight. Analyses were stratified by age-group. The association of follow-up zBMI and baseline feeding restriction score was explored using (i) linear regression with adjustment for baseline zBMI and (ii) with further adjustments for baseline maternal BMI, maternal education level and child sex. Baseline restriction was associated with follow-up zBMI at 3 years in 5–6-year-old children and was largely unchanged when adjusting for child sex, maternal BMI and education. Restriction was not associated with follow-up zBMI in 10–12-year-old children. This longitudinal study adds important depth to our understanding of associations between restrictive feeding and change in zBMI, suggesting that restriction of energy-dense foods and drinks may be protective of unhealthy weight gain in younger children but may have no effect among older children. These findings support a reconsideration of the notion that restriction is likely to result in increased child weight.

Influence of stocking rate and mixed grazing of Angora goats and Merino sheep on animal and pasture production in southern Australia : 2 : liveweight, body condition score, carcass yield and mortality

The effects of animal species (AS; Angora goats, Merino sheep, mixed-grazed goats and sheep at the ratio of 1:1) and stocking rate (SR; 7.5, 10 and 12.5 animals/ha) on the liveweight, body condition score, carcass yield and mortality of goats and sheep were determined in a replicated experiment on improved annual temperate pastures in southern Australia from 1981 to 1984. The pattern of liveweight change was similar for both species with growth from pasture germination in autumn until maturation in late spring followed by weight loss. In winter, sheep grew faster than goats (65 versus 10 g/day, <i>Pi> < 0.05). In mixed-grazed treatments between November and December goats either grew when sheep were losing weight or goats lost less weight than sheep (<i>Pi> < 0.01). Both AS (<i>Pi> < 0.001) and SR (<i>Pi> < 0.001) affected liveweight of sheep and an AS SR interaction (<i>P < i> 0.05) affected liveweight of goats. Mixed-grazed sheep were heavier than separately grazed sheep at all SR with a mean difference at 10 and 12.5/ha of 4.6 kg. Mixed-grazed goats at 10/ha were heavier than separately grazed goats from the end of the second year of the experiment, but at 12.5/ha, separately grazed goats maintained an advantage over mixed-grazed goats, with a 9.4-kg mean difference in December (<i>Pi> < 0.05). Body condition scores of goats and sheep declined with increasing SR; they were highest in late spring and were highly correlated with liveweight (<i>ri>² > 0.8). Both AS and SR affected (<i>Pi> < 0.001) carcass weight and GR tissue depth as a direct result of differences in liveweight. Adjusting for differences in carcass weight negated AS effects on GR tissue depth. The carcass weights of sheep and goats increased by similar amounts for each 1-kg increase in liveweight. Mortality of sheep (3.1% p.a.) was unaffected by AS or SR. An AS SR interaction indicated mortality of separately grazed goats at 12.5/ha and mixed-grazed goats at 10 and 12.5/ha were higher (<i>Pi> < 0.05) than all other goat (29 versus 9%) and sheep treatments, primarily because of increased susceptibility to cold stress. Disease prevalence differed between sheep and goats. Mixed grazing of Merino sheep and Angora goats produced complementary and competitive effects depending upon the SR. Goats used summer pasture better but winter pasture less well for liveweight gain than sheep. Angora goats should not be grazed alone or mixed grazed with sheep on annual temperate pastures at SR greater than that recommended for Merino sheep and the evidence indicates a lower SR will reduce risks associated with mortality.

Whole grain consumption is inversely associated with BMI Z-score in rural school-aged children

Objective To examine the relationship between intake of whole grains and BMI Z-score in rural children.

Design General linear models and logistic regression were used to examine the cross-sectional associations between whole grain intake and BMI Z-score, prevalence and odds ratios of overweight and obesity. Dietary intake was assessed using the Block Food Screener for ages 2–17 years. Children were classified into three categories according to servings of whole grain intake: <1&middot;0 serving/d, 1&middot;0–1&middot;5 servings/d and >1&middot;5 servings/d.

Setting The CHANGE (Creating Healthy, Active and Nurturing Growing-up Environments) study, an obesity prevention intervention in elementary schools in eight rural US communities in California, Mississippi, Kentucky and South Carolina.

Subjects Seven hundred and ninety-two children attending 3rd–6th grade.

Results After adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, physical activity and state of residence, whole grain intake was inversely associated with BMI Z-score (0&middot;90 v. 0&middot;61 in the lowest v. the highest whole grain intake category; P trend = 0&middot;01). Children who consumed >1&middot;5 servings of whole grains/d had a 40 % lower risk of being obese (OR = 0&middot;60; 95 % CI 0&middot;38, 0&middot;95, P = 0&middot;02) compared with children who consumed <1&middot;0 serving/d. Further adjustment for potential dietary predictors of body weight (fruit, vegetable and dairy intakes) did not change the observed associations.

Conclusions Increasing the intake of whole grains as part of an overall healthy lifestyle may be beneficial for children to achieve and maintain a healthy weight.

On the use of fuzzy inference techniques in assessment models : part I — theoretical properties

An assessment model is a mathematical model that produces a measuring index, either in the form of a numerical score or a category to a situation/object, with respect to the subject of measure. From the numerical score, decision can be made and action can be taken. To allow valid and useful comparisons among various situations/objects according to their associated numerical scores to be made, the monotone output property and the output resolution property are essential in fuzzy inference-based assessment problems. We investigate the conditions for a fuzzy assessment model to fulfill the monotone output property using a derivative approach. A guideline on how the input membership functions should be tuned is also provided. Besides, the output resolution property is defined as the derivative of the output of the assessment model with respect to its input. This derivative should be greater than the minimum resolution required. From the derivative, we suggest improvements to the output resolution property by refining the fuzzy production rules.

Effects of asenapine in bipolar I patients meeting proxy criteria for moderate-to-severe mixed major depressive episodes: a post hoc analysis

OBJECTIVE: Depression is the predominant psychosocial and suicide burden in bipolar disorder, yet there is a paucity of evidence-based treatments for bipolar depression. METHODS: This post hoc subgroup analysis of data pooled from two 3-week, randomized, placebo- and olanzapine-controlled trials (December 2004-April 2006, N = 489 and November 2004-April 2006, N = 488) examined a subgroup of patients meeting criteria for moderate-to-severe mixed major depressive episodes, defined using DSM-IV-TR criteria for mixed episodes (mania and major depression simultaneously) with a baseline Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score ≥ 20. RESULTS: Decreases in MADRS scores (least squares mean [SE]), the a priori primary outcome, were significantly greater in the asenapine group than in the placebo group from baseline to day 7 (-11.02 [1.82] vs -4.78 [1.89]; P = .0195), day 21 (-14.03 [2.01] vs -7.43 [2.09]; P = .0264), and endpoint (-10.71 [1.76] vs -5.19 [1.98]; P = .039). Decreases in MADRS scores with asenapine were significantly greater than with olanzapine from baseline to day 7 (-6.26 [1.47]; P = .0436). Decreases in Young Mania Rating Scale mean total score were greater with asenapine than with placebo or olanzapine at all time points assessed. A significantly greater reduction from baseline to day 21 in the Short Form-36 mental component summary score was observed with asenapine, but not olanzapine, compared with placebo (16.57 vs 5.97; P = .0093). Asenapine was generally well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide support for the potential efficacy of asenapine in mixed major depressive episodes; however, these data cannot be linearly extrapolated to nonmixed major depression.

Consenso em reumatologia pediátrica: parte I - definição dos critérios de doença inativa e remissão em artrite idiopática juvenil/artrite reumatóide juvenil

Não há critérios universalmente aceitos para a remissão clínica em artrite idiopática juvenil/artrite reumatóide juvenil (AIJ/ARJ). OBJETIVO: formar consenso sobre estes critérios. MÉTODOS: foi utilizado um inquérito pelo método Delphi para reunir os critérios vigentes e utilizados por especialistas em reumatologia pediátrica (RP) no mundo todo. A análise dos resultados constituiu a base para uma Consensus Conference utilizando a nominal group technique (NGT) para alcançar o consenso nas questões não resolvidas após a análise dos questionários deste inquérito. Cento e trinta RP de 34 países responderam ao inquérito e 20 RP de nove países elegeram os critérios durante dois dias, em processo de discussão estruturada, para formar consenso pela NGT. RESULTADOS: os critérios de doença inativa deveriam incluir: 1) nenhuma articulação com artrite em atividade; 2) ausência de febre, rash, serosite, esplenomegalia ou linfadenopatia generalizada atribuída à AIJ/ARJ; 3) ausência de uveíte em atividade; 4) VHS ou PCR negativas (se ambos forem testados, ambos devem ser normais); 5) a avaliação global pelo médico deve indicar o melhor escore possível, indicando doença inativa. CONCLUSÕES: de acordo com o voto de consenso, seis meses contínuos de doença inativa são necessários para se considerar um paciente em estado de remissão com medicação; 12 meses contínuos de doença inativa e sem medicação são necessários para considerar um paciente em estado de remissão sem medicação. O critério para remissão sem medicação deve prever com acurácia de 95% a probabilidade inferior a 20% de recaída em cinco anos.

Subsídios para a gênese da imprensa musical brasileira e para a história do Hino da Independência, de Dom Pedro I

Este artigo tem por objetivos rever, mediante análise bibliográfica e de fontes primárias, a história de um de nossos símbolos musicais pátrios, o Hino da Independência, de Dom Pedro I, bem como trazer novos subsídios para o estudo da gênese da imprensa musical brasileira. Tem, igualmente, por escopo divulgar peculiaridades de uma antiga e pouco conhecida partitura desse hino, já não mais presentes em modernas edições de tal composição.