Software maintenance project delays prediction using Bayesian Networks

Managing software maintenance is rarely a precise task due to uncertainties concerned with resources and services descriptions. Even when a well-established maintenance process is followed, the risk of delaying tasks remains if the new services are not precisely described or when resources change during process execution. Also, the delay of a task at an early process stage may represent a different delay at the end of the process, depending on complexity or services reliability requirements. This paper presents a knowledge-based representation (Bayesian Networks) for maintenance project delays based on specialists experience and a corresponding tool to help in managing software maintenance projects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using ant colonies for solve the multiprocessor task graph scheduling

The problem of scheduling a parallel program presented by a weighted directed acyclic graph (DAG) to the set of homogeneous processors for minimizing the completion time of the program has been extensively studied as academic optimization problem which occurs in optimizing the execution time of parallel algorithm with parallel computer.In this paper, we propose an application of the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to a multiprocessor scheduling problem (MPSP). In the MPSP, no preemption is allowed and each operation demands a setup time on the machines. The problem seeks to compose a schedule that minimizes the total completion time.We therefore rely on heuristics to find solutions since solution methods are not feasible for most problems as such. This novel heuristic searching approach to the multiprocessor based on the ACO algorithm a collection of agents cooperate to effectively explore the search space.A computational experiment is conducted on a suit of benchmark application. By comparing our algorithm result obtained to that of previous heuristic algorithm, it is evince that the ACO algorithm exhibits competitive performance with small error ratio.

Optimization of query results in peer-to-peer database supported by semantics

The development of new technologies that use peer-to-peer networks grows every day, with the object to supply the need of sharing information, resources and services of databases around the world. Among them are the peer-to-peer databases that take advantage of peer-to-peer networks to manage distributed knowledge bases, allowing the sharing of information semantically related but syntactically heterogeneous. However, it is a challenge to ensure the efficient search for information without compromising the autonomy of each node and network flexibility, given the structural characteristics of these networks. On the other hand, some studies propose the use of ontology semantics by assigning standardized categorization of information. The main original contribution of this work is the approach of this problem with a proposal for optimization of queries supported by the Ant Colony algorithm and classification though ontologies. The results show that this strategy enables the semantic support to the searches in peer-to-peer databases, aiming to expand the results without compromising network performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Algoritmos de alinhamento múltiplo e técnicas de otimização para esses algoritmos utilizando Ant Colony

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Computação - IBILCE

Signal propagation in Bayesian networks and its relationship with intrinsically multivariate predictive variables

A set of predictor variables is said to be intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) for a target variable if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are poor predictors of the. target but the full set predicts the target with great accuracy. In a previous article, the main properties of IMP Boolean variables have been analytically described, including the introduction of the IMP score, a metric based on the coefficient of determination (CoD) as a measure of predictiveness with respect to the target variable. It was shown that the IMP score depends on four main properties: logic of connection, predictive power, covariance between predictors and marginal predictor probabilities (biases). This paper extends that work to a broader context, in an attempt to characterize properties of discrete Bayesian networks that contribute to the presence of variables (network nodes) with high IMP scores. We have found that there is a relationship between the IMP score of a node and its territory size, i.e., its position along a pathway with one source: nodes far from the source display larger IMP scores than those closer to the source, and longer pathways display larger maximum IMP scores. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that nodes with small territory have larger probability of having highly covariate predictors, which leads to smaller IMP scores. In addition, a larger number of XOR and NXOR predictive logic relationships has positive influence over the maximum IMP score found in the pathway. This work presents analytical results based on a simple structure network and an analysis involving random networks constructed by computational simulations. Finally, results from a real Bayesian network application are provided. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sequenzierung mit Ant-Colony-Systemen am Beispiel Querverteil-Wagen

Dieser Beitrag zeigt die Anwendung des Ant-Colony-System (ACS) Algorithmus auf die Sequenzierung von Querverteil-Wagen in einem Lager. Wir erweitern den Basisalgorithmus der Ant-Colony-Optimierung (ACO) für die Minimierung der Bearbeitungszeit einer Menge von Fahraufträgen für die Querverteil-Wagen. Im Vergleich zu dem Greedy-Algorithmus ist der ACO-Algorithmus wettbewerbsfähig und schnell. In vielen Lagerverwaltungssystemen werden die Fahraufträge nach dem FIFO-Prinzip (First-in-First-out) ausgeführt. In diesem Beitrag wird der ACO-Algorithmus genutzt, um eine optimale Sequenz der Fahraufträge zu bilden.

Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Prediction at ungauged sites is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. Regression models relate physiographic and climatic basin characteristics to flood quantiles, which can be estimated from observed data at gauged sites. However, these models assume linear relationships between variables Prediction intervals are estimated by the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Furthermore, the effect of the uncertainties in the explanatory variables on the dependent variable cannot be assessed. This paper presents a methodology to propagate the uncertainties that arise in the process of predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins by a regression model. In addition, Bayesian networks were explored as a feasible tool for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Bayesian networks benefit from taking into account uncertainties thanks to their probabilistic nature. They are able to capture non-linear relationships between variables and they give a probability distribution of discharges as result. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Tagus basin in Spain.

Regression models with MoPs Bayesian networks

We present a model of Bayesian network for continuous variables, where densities and conditional densities are estimated with B-spline MoPs. We use a novel approach to directly obtain conditional densities estimation using B-spline properties. In particular we implement naive Bayes and wrapper variables selection. Finally we apply our techniques to the problem of predicting neurons morphological variables from electrophysiological ones.

Expressive power of binary relevance and chain classifiers based on Bayesian Networks for multi-label classification

Bayesian network classifiers are widely used in machine learning because they intuitively represent causal relations. Multi-label classification problems require each instance to be assigned a subset of a defined set of h labels. This problem is equivalent to finding a multi-valued decision function that predicts a vector of h binary classes. In this paper we obtain the decision boundaries of two widely used Bayesian network approaches for building multi-label classifiers: Multi-label Bayesian network classifiers built using the binary relevance method and Bayesian network chain classifiers. We extend our previous single-label results to multi-label chain classifiers, and we prove that, as expected, chain classifiers provide a more expressive model than the binary relevance method.