The FGM bivariate lifetime copula model: a bayesian approach

In this paper, we propose a bivariate distribution for the bivariate survival times based on Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula to model the dependence on a bivariate survival data. The proposed model allows for the presence of censored data and covariates. For inferential purpose a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is considered. Further, some discussions on the model selection criteria are given. In order to examine outlying and influential observations, we present a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The newly developed procedures are illustrated via a simulation study and a real dataset.

A log-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with asymmetric errors

This paper introduces a skewed log-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model based on the skewed sinh-normal distribution proposed by Leiva et al. [A skewed sinh-normal distribution and its properties and application to air pollution, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 39 (2010), pp. 426-443]. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and generalized leverage, are presented. Additionally, we derived the normal curvatures of local influence under some perturbation schemes. An empirical application to a real data set is presented in order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

International openness in transition countries: further evidence on foreign direct investment

The thesis focuses on the process of international openness of Transition Countries. This study provides a theoretical analysis based on reference literature, and an empirical analysis which is aimed at estimating some main effects of Foreign Direct Investment. Transition has represented a highly complex phenomenon, characterized by several aspects, whose interaction has shaped the developmental path of each country involved. Although the thesis focuses on economic issues it is outstanding to underline that Transition implies political, institutional, and even social deep changes, which must be taken into consideration in the general overview of the contex. The empirical part has been developed along two different ways: a country analysis and a firm analysis, thus allowing to widen the study and delve deeper into the use of econometric instruments. More specifically, in the first empirical stage both static (Fixed Effects) and dynamic (LSDV Corrected) methodologies have been implemented, whereas in the second stage the Cox Proportional Function has been chosen in order to handle with censored data.

Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.

Markers Models in Survival Analysis and Applications to Issues Associated with AIDS

Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) consider the use of marker processes for applications related to estimation of the survival distribution of time to failure. Marker processes were assumed to be stochastic processes that, at a given point in time, provide information about the current hazard and consequently on the remaining time to failure. Particular attention was paid to calculations based on a simple additive model for the relationship between the hazard function at time t and the history of the marker process up until time t. Specific applications to the analysis of AIDS data included the use of markers as surrogate responses for onset of AIDS with censored data and as predictors of the time elapsed since infection in prevalent individuals. Here we review recent work on the use of marker data to tackle these kinds of problems with AIDS data. The Poisson marker process with an additive model, introduced in Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) may be a useful "test" example for comparison of various procedures.

Information as Property

Information is widely regarded as one of the key concepts of modern society. The production, distribution and use of information are some of the key aspects of modern economies. Driven by technological progress information has become a good in its own right. This established an information economy and challenged the law to provide an apt framework suitable to promote the production of information, enable its distribution and efficient allocation, and deal with the risks inherent in information technology. Property rights are a major component of such a framework. However, information as an object of property rights is not limited to intellectual property but may also occur as personality aspects or even tangible property. Accordingly, information as property can be found in the area of intellectual property, personality protection and other property rights. This essay attempts to categorize three different types of information that can be understood as a good in the economic sense and an object in the legal sense: semantic information, syntactic information and structural information. It shows how legal ownership of such information is established by different subjective rights. In addition the widespread debate regarding the justification of intellectual property rights is demonstrated from the wider perspective of informational property in general. Finally, in light of current debates, this essay explores whether “data producers” shall have a new kind of property right in data.

Proportion of bryozoa, isopoda and ostracoda, and bryozoan species richness on the Antarctic continental shelf, slope and abyss

The Antarctic continental slope spans the depths from the shelf break (usually between 500 and 1000 m) to ~3000 m, is very steep, overlain by 'warm' (2-2.5 °C) Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), and life there is poorly studied. This study investigates whether life on Antarctica's continental slope is essentially an extension of the shelf or the abyssal fauna, a transition zone between these or clearly distinct in its own right. Using data from several cruises to the Weddell Sea and Scotia Sea, including the ANDEEP (ANtarctic benthic DEEP-sea biodiversity, colonisation history and recent community patterns) I-III, BIOPEARL (Biodiversity, Phylogeny, Evolution and Adaptive Radiation of Life in Antarctica) 1 and EASIZ (Ecology of the Antarctic Sea Ice Zone) II cruises as well as current databases (SOMBASE, SCAR-MarBIN), four different taxa were selected (i.e. cheilostome bryozoans, isopod and ostracod crustaceans and echinoid echinoderms) and two areas, the Weddell Sea and the Scotia Sea, to examine faunal composition, richness and affinities. The answer has important ramifications to the link between physical oceanography and ecology, and the potential of the slope to act as a refuge and resupply zone to the shelf during glaciations. Benthic samples were collected using Agassiz trawl, epibenthic sledge and Rauschert sled. By bathymetric definition, these data suggest that despite eurybathy in some of the groups examined and apparent similarity of physical conditions in the Antarctic, the shelf, slope and abyssal faunas were clearly separated in the Weddell Sea. However, no such separation of faunas was apparent in the Scotia Sea (except in echinoids). Using a geomorphological definition of the slope, shelf-slope-abyss similarity only changed significantly in the bryozoans. Our results did not support the presence of a homogenous and unique Antarctic slope fauna despite a high number of species being restricted to the slope. However, it remains the case that there may be a unique Antarctic slope fauna, but the paucity of our samples could not demonstrate this in the Scotia Sea. It is very likely that various ecological and evolutionary factors (such as topography, water-mass and sediment characteristics, input of particulate organic carbon (POC) and glaciological history) drive slope distinctness. Isopods showed greatest species richness at slope depths, whereas bryozoans and ostracods were more speciose at shelf depths; however, significance varied across Weddell Sea and Scotia Sea and depending on bathymetric vs. geomorphological definitions. Whilst the slope may harbour some source populations for localised shelf recolonisation, the absence of many shelf species, genera and even families (in a poorly dispersing taxon) from the continental slope indicate that it was not a universal refuge for Antarctic shelf fauna.

Estimadores bayesianos de la fiabilidad con muestreo censurado

El estudio de la fiabilidad de componentes y sistemas tiene gran importancia en diversos campos de la ingenieria, y muy concretamente en el de la informatica. Al analizar la duracion de los elementos de la muestra hay que tener en cuenta los elementos que no fallan en el tiempo que dure el experimento, o bien los que fallen por causas distintas a la que es objeto de estudio. Por ello surgen nuevos tipos de muestreo que contemplan estos casos. El mas general de ellos, el muestreo censurado, es el que consideramos en nuestro trabajo. En este muestreo tanto el tiempo hasta que falla el componente como el tiempo de censura son variables aleatorias. Con la hipotesis de que ambos tiempos se distribuyen exponencialmente, el profesor Hurt estudio el comportamiento asintotico del estimador de maxima verosimilitud de la funcion de fiabilidad. En principio parece interesante utilizar metodos Bayesianos en el estudio de la fiabilidad porque incorporan al analisis la informacion a priori de la que se dispone normalmente en problemas reales. Por ello hemos considerado dos estimadores Bayesianos de la fiabilidad de una distribucion exponencial que son la media y la moda de la distribucion a posteriori. Hemos calculado la expansion asint6tica de la media, varianza y error cuadratico medio de ambos estimadores cuando la distribuci6n de censura es exponencial. Hemos obtenido tambien la distribucion asintotica de los estimadores para el caso m3s general de que la distribucion de censura sea de Weibull. Dos tipos de intervalos de confianza para muestras grandes se han propuesto para cada estimador. Los resultados se han comparado con los del estimador de maxima verosimilitud, y con los de dos estimadores no parametricos: limite producto y Bayesiano, resultando un comportamiento superior por parte de uno de nuestros estimadores. Finalmente nemos comprobado mediante simulacion que nuestros estimadores son robustos frente a la supuesta distribuci6n de censura, y que uno de los intervalos de confianza propuestos es valido con muestras pequenas. Este estudio ha servido tambien para confirmar el mejor comportamiento de uno de nuestros estimadores. SETTING OUT AND SUMMARY OF THE THESIS When we study the lifetime of components it's necessary to take into account the elements that don't fail during the experiment, or those that fail by reasons which are desirable to exclude from consideration. The model of random censorship is very usefull for analysing these data. In this model the time to failure and the time censor are random variables. We obtain two Bayes estimators of the reliability function of an exponential distribution based on randomly censored data. We have calculated the asymptotic expansion of the mean, variance and mean square error of both estimators, when the censor's distribution is exponential. We have obtained also the asymptotic distribution of the estimators for the more general case of censor's Weibull distribution. Two large-sample confidence bands have been proposed for each estimator. The results have been compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator, and with those of two non parametric estimators: Product-limit and Bayesian. One of our estimators has the best behaviour. Finally we have shown by simulation, that our estimators are robust against the assumed censor's distribution, and that one of our intervals does well in small sample situation.

Algunos retos de la protección de datos en la sociedad del conocimiento. Especial detenimiento en la computación en la nube (cloud computing).

Los continuos avances tecnológicos están trayendo consigo nuevas formas de almacenar, tratar y comunicar datos personales. Es necesario repensar el derecho fundamental a la protección de datos, y arbitrar mecanismos para adaptarlo a las nuevas formas de tratamiento. a nivel europeo se está trabajando en una nueva propuesta de regulación que consideramos, en general, muy apropiada para afrontar los nuevos retos en esta materia. para ejemplificar todo esto, en el presente estudio se plantea de forma detallada el caso de la computación en nube, sus principales características y algunas preocupaciones acerca de los riesgos potenciales que su utilización trae consigo. Abstract: Rapid technological developments are bringing new ways to store, process and communicate personal data. We need to rethink the fundamental right to data protection and adapt it to new forms of treatment. there is a new «european» proposal for a regulation on the protection of individuals with regard to the processing of personal data, well suited to meet the new challenges. this study offers one example of this: the cloud computing, its main characteristics and some concerns about the potential risks that its use entails.

A nova família de distribuições odd log-logística: teoria e aplicações

Neste trabalho, foi proposta uma nova família de distribuições, a qual permite modelar dados de sobrevivência quando a função de risco tem formas unimodal e U (banheira). Ainda, foram consideradas as modificações das distribuições Weibull, Fréchet, half-normal generalizada, log-logística e lognormal. Tomando dados não-censurados e censurados, considerou-se os estimadores de máxima verossimilhança para o modelo proposto, a fim de verificar a flexibilidade da nova família. Além disso, um modelo de regressão locação-escala foi utilizado para verificar a influência de covariáveis nos tempos de sobrevida. Adicionalmente, conduziu-se uma análise de resíduos baseada nos resíduos deviance modificada. Estudos de simulação, utilizando-se de diferentes atribuições dos parâmetros, porcentagens de censura e tamanhos amostrais, foram conduzidos com o objetivo de verificar a distribuição empírica dos resíduos tipo martingale e deviance modificada. Para detectar observações influentes, foram utilizadas medidas de influência local, que são medidas de diagnóstico baseadas em pequenas perturbações nos dados ou no modelo proposto. Podem ocorrer situações em que a suposição de independência entre os tempos de falha e censura não seja válida. Assim, outro objetivo desse trabalho é considerar o mecanismo de censura informativa, baseado na verossimilhança marginal, considerando a distribuição log-odd log-logística Weibull na modelagem. Por fim, as metodologias descritas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados reais.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Measurement of scleral thickness in humans using anterior segment optical coherent tomography

Anterior segment optical coherent tomography (AS-OCT, Visante; Zeiss) is used to examine meridional variation in anterior scleral thickness (AST) and its association with refractive error, ethnicity and gender. Scleral cross-sections of 74 individuals (28 males; 46 females; aged between 18-40 years (27.7±5.3)) were sampled twice in random order in 8 meridians: [superior (S), inferior (I), nasal (N), temporal (T), superior-temporal (ST), superior-nasal (SN), inferior-temporal (IT) and inferior-nasal (IN)]. AST was measured in 1mm anterior-toposterior increments (designated the A-P distance) from the scleral spur (SS) over a 6mm distance. Axial length and refractive error were measured with a Zeiss IOLMaster biometer and an open-view binocular Shin-Nippon autorefractor. Intra- And inter-observer variability of AST was assessed for each of the 8 meridians. Mixed repeated measures ANOVAs tested meridional and A-P distance differences in AST with refractive error, gender and ethnicity. Only right eye data were analysed. AST (mean±SD) across all meridians and A-P distances was 725±46μm. Meridian SN was the thinnest (662±57μm) and I the thickest (806 ±60μm). Significant differences were found between all meridians (p<0.001), except S:ST, IT:IN, IT:N and IN:N. Significant differences between A-P distances were found except between SS and 6 mm and between 2 and 4mm. AST measurements at 1mm (682±48 μm) were the thinnest and at 6mm (818±49 μm) the thickest (p<0.001); a significant interaction occurred between meridians and A-P distances (p<0.001). AST was significantly greater (p<0.001) in male subjects but no significant differences were found between refractive error or ethnicity. Significant variations in AST occur with regard to meridian and distance from the SS and may have utility in selecting optimum sites for pharmaceutical or surgical intervention.

Bayesian and Frequentist Two-Sample Predictions of the Inverse Weibull Model Based on Generalized Order Statistics

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16,62F15, 62H12, 62M20.

Two years survival rate of Class II ART restorations in primary molars using two ways to avoid saliva contamination

AIM To compare the survival rates of Class II Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) restorations placed in primary molars using cotton rolls or rubber dam as isolation methods. METHODS A total of 232 children, 6-7 years old, both genders, were selected having one primary molar with proximal dentine lesion. The children were randomly assigned into two groups: control group with Class II ART restoration made using cotton rolls and experimental group using rubber dam. The restorations were evaluated by eight calibrated evaluators (Kappa > 0.8) after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. RESULTS A total of 48 (20.7%) children were considered dropout, after 24 months. The cumulative survival rate after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months was 61.4%, 39.0%, 29.1% and 18.0%, respectively for the control group, and 64.1%, 55.1%, 40.1% and 32.1%, respectively for the rubber dam group. The log rank test for censored data showed no statistical significant difference between the groups (P = 0.07). The univariate Cox Regression showed no statistical significant difference after adjusting for independent variables (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION Both groups had similar survival rates, and after 2 years, the use of rubber dam does not increase the success of Class II ART restorations significantly.

Is there a health risk concerning the children´s consumption of cereal-based products? A cumulative mycotoxin risk assessment approach

Historically, the health risk of mycotoxins had been evaluated on the basis of single-chemical and single-exposure pathway scenarios. However, the co-contamination of foodstuffs with these compounds is being reported at an increasing rate and a multiple-exposure scenario for humans and vulnerable population groups as children is urgently needed. Cereals are among the first solid foods eaten by child and thus constitute an important food group of their diet. Few data are available relatively to early stages child´s exposure to mycotoxins through consumption of cereal-based foods. The present study aims to perform the cumulative risk assessment of mycotoxins present in a set of cereal-based foods including breakfast cereals (BC), processed cereal-based foods (PCBF) and biscuits (BT), consumed by children (1 to 3 years old, n=75) from Lisbon region, Portugal. Children food consumption and occurrence of 12 mycotoxins (aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, fumonisins and trichothecenes) in cereal-based foods were combined to estimate the mycotoxin daily intake, using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Different strategies were used to treat the left censored data. For aflatoxins, as carcinogenic compounds, the margin of exposure (MoE) was calculated as a ratio of BMDL (benchmark dose lower confidence limit) and aflatoxin daily exposure. For the remaining mycotoxins, the output of exposure was compared to the dose reference values (TDI) in order to calculate the hazard quotients (HQ, ratio between exposure and a reference dose). The concentration addition (CA) concept was used for the cumulative risk assessment of multiple mycotoxins. The combined margin of exposure (MoET) and the hazard index (HI) were calculated for aflatoxins and the remaining mycotoxins, respectively. Main results revealed a significant health concern related to aflatoxins and especially aflatoxin M1 exposure according to the MoET and MoE values (below 10000), respectively. HQ and HI values for the remaining mycotoxins were below 1, revealing a low concern from a public health point of view. These are the first results on cumulative risk assessment of multiple mycotoxins present in cereal-based foods consumed by children. Considering the present results, more research studies are needed to provide the governmental regulatory bodies with data to develop an approach that contemplate the human exposure and, particularly, children, to multiple mycotoxins in food. The last issue is particularly important considering the potential synergistic effects that could occur between mycotoxins and its potential impact on human and, mainly, children health.