Can investors hedge residential price dynamics of Australia's capital cities?

The study described in this paper focuses on testing the short-run and
long-run relationships between house price and consumer price indices in Australia’s capital cities from 1998 to 2008. The autoregressive distributed lag model is adopted to obtain the estimates of the short-run relationships, while the error correction model is used to investigate the long-run relationships. The t-statistic is used to compute the significance of these relationships. The research results give no evidence that house price indices are correlated with consumer price indices in the short run. However, the long-run relationships between house and consumer price indices exist in most of the cities.

Atmospheric pollution: influence on hospital admissions in paediatric rheumatic diseases

Objective: To investigate the lag structure effects from exposure to atmospheric pollution in acute outbursts in hospital admissions of paediatric rheumatic diseases (PRDs). Methods: Morbidity data were obtained from the Brazilian Hospital Information System in seven consecutive years, including admissions due to seven PRDs (juvenile idiopathic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, dermatomyositis, Henoch-Schonlein purpura, polyarteritis nodosa, systemic sclerosis and ankylosing spondylitis). Cases with secondary diagnosis of respiratory diseases were excluded. Daily concentrations of inhaled particulate matter (PM10), sulphur dioxide (SO2) nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O-3) and carbon monoxide (CO) were evaluated. Generalized linear Poisson regression models controlling for short-term trend, seasonality, holidays, temperature and humidity were used. Lag structures and magnitude of air pollutants' effects were adopted to estimate restricted polynomial distributed lag models. Results: The total number of admissions due to acute outbursts PRD was 1,821. The SO2 interquartile range (7.79 mu g/m(3)) was associated with an increase of 1.98% (confidence interval 0.25-3.69) in the number of hospital admissions due to outcome studied after 14 days of exposure. This effect was maintained until day 17. Of note, the other pollutants, with the exception of O-3, showed an increase in the number of hospital admissions from the second week. Conclusion: This study is the first to demonstrate a delayed association between SO2 and PRD outburst, suggesting that oxidative stress reaction could trigger the inflammation of these diseases. Lupus (2012) 21, 526-533.

O nexo causal entre crédito rural e crescimento do produto agropecuário na economia brasileira

O nexo causal entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico vem ganhando destaque na literatura desde o início dos anos 1990. As principais linhas teóricas nessa área buscam demonstrar qual a significância da relação e o sentido da causalidade, se houver. Causalidade unidirecional no sentido do desenvolvimento financeiro para o crescimento econômico, bicausalidade entre ambos, e causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento para o desenvolvimento financeiro, são as principais hipóteses testadas nas pesquisas empíricas. O presente trabalho de tese tem por objetivo avaliar o nexo causal entre crédito (como um indicador do desenvolvimento financeiro) e crescimento no setor agropecuário brasileiro. O crédito rural como proporção do PIB agropecuário cresceu substancialmente desde meados da década de 90, passando de 15,44% em 1996 para 65,24% em 2014. Ao longo do período 1969-2014, a razão média anual entre crédito rural e PIB agropecuário foi de 43,87%. No mesmo período, o produto agropecuário cresceu em média 3,76% ao ano. Questiona-se se no mercado rural o crédito causa o crescimento agropecuário, se ocorre causalidade reversa ou se se opera a hipótese de bicausalidade. Para avaliar o nexo causal entre essas duas variáveis econômica foram empregados quatro procedimentos metodológicos: teste de causalidade de Granger em uma representação VAR com a abordagem de Toda e Yamamoto, teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS), teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) e teste de causalidade de Granger no domínio da frequência, com o uso do método de Breitung e Candelon. Os resultados mostram de forma uniforme a presença de causalidade unidirecional do crédito rural para o crescimento do produto agropecuário. Causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento agropecuário para o crédito rural, não foi detectada de forma significativa em nenhum dos quatro métodos empregados. A não detecção de bicausalidade pode ser uma evidência do impacto da forte política de subsídio governamental ao crédito rural. A decisão do Governo quanto ao montante anual de crédito rural disponível a taxas de juros subsidiadas pode estar impedindo que o desempenho do setor, medido pela sua taxa de crescimento, exerça uma influência significativa na dinâmica do crédito rural. Os resultados também abrem a possibilidade a testar a hipótese de exogeneidade do crédito rural, o que seria uma extensão direta dos resultados obtidos.

Population structure of the peridomestic mosquito Ochlerotatus notoscriptus in Australia

Ochlerotatus notoscriptus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the predominant peridomestic mosquito in Australia where it is the primary vector of dog heartworm, Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy), and a potentially important vector of arboviruses (Barmah Forest, Ross River) with geographical variation of vector competence. Although widespread, Oc. notoscriptus has low dispersal ability, so it may have isolated subpopulations. The identification of gene flow barriers may assist in understanding arbovirus epidemiology and disease risk, and for developing control strategies for this species. We investigated the population structure of Oc. notoscriptus from 17 sites around Australia, using up to 31 putative allozyme loci, 11 of which were polymorphic. We investigated the effect of larval environment and adult morphology on genetic variation. At least five subpopulations were found, four in New South Wales (NSW) and one unique to Darwin. Perth samples appear to be a product of recent colonization from the Australian east coast. For NSW sites, a Mantel test revealed an isolation by distance effect and spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed an area of effective gene flow of 67 km, which is high given the limited dispersal ability of this species. No consistent difference was observed between 'urban' and 'sylvan' habitats, which suggests frequent movement between these sites. However, a finer-scaled habitat study at Darwin revealed small but significant allele frequency differences, including for Gpi. No fixed allozyme differences were detected for sex, size, integument colour or the colour of species-diagnostic pale scales on the scutum. The domestic habit of Oc. notoscriptus and assisted dispersal have helped to homogenize this species geographically but population structure is still detectable on several levels associated with geographical variation of vector competence.

Spatial and temporal definition of Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus (Thomson) (Diptera : Culicidae) in the Gippsland Lakes system of eastern Victoria

The confirmed vector of Ross River virus, Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus (Thomson), is the dominant mosquito species inhabiting saline marshes in coastal Victoria. This paper re-examines previously published data on Oc. camptorhynchus, plus additional data collected since that time, and provides greater spatial and temporal definition of Oc. camptorhynchus numbers at seven sites across the Gippsland Lakes system of eastern Victoria. A total of 357 672 Oc. camptorhynchus was captured from 1188 trap-nights across the seven trap sites during trapping seasons from 1990 to 2001. The dominance of Oc. camptorhynchus across the seven sites averaged 75%, with significant differences in mean abundance of Oc. camptorhynchus found between all trap sites. Significant differences in monthly abundance of Oc. camptorhynchus were observed for Wellington Shire. Increase in populations of Oc. camptorhynchus was associated with increases in rainfall at all trap sites, higher minimum temperatures at two of the seven trap sites, and wind speed at one trap site. Prioritisation of mosquito control may be applied based on spatial and temporal factors according to the findings of this study.

Development time and survival of Verrallina funerea (Theobald) (Diptera : Culicidae) immatures and other brackish water mosquito species in southeast Queensland, Australia

Verrallina funerea (Theobald) is a brackish water mosquito that is recognised as an important pest and vector in southeast Queensland, Australia. Immature development time and survival of Ve. funerea was defined in the laboratory in response to a range of temperatures (17-34 degrees C) and salinities (0-35 parts per thousand (p.p.t)). The expression of autogeny in this species was also assessed. Salinity only had a slight effect on mean development time from hatching to adult emergence (7.0-7.4 d at salinities of 0, 17.5 and 31.5 p.p.t) and survival was uniformly high (97.5-99.0%). Mean development times were shorter at 26, 29 and 32 degrees C (7.0, 6.8 and 6.8 d, respectively) and longest at 17 degrees C (12.2 d). The threshold temperature (t) was 5.8 degrees C and the thermal constant (K) was 142.9 degree-days above t. Survival to adulthood decreased from > 95% (at 17-29 degrees C) to 78% (at 32 degrees C) and 0% (at 34 degrees C). No expression of autogeny was observed. Immature development times of Ve. funerea, Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse) and Oc. procax (Skuse) were then determined under field conditions at Maroochy Shire. Following tide and rain inundation, cohorts of newly hatched larvae were monitored daily by dipping, and time until pupation was noted. Tidal inundation triggered hatching of Ve. funerea and Oc. vigilax larvae whereas Oc. procax larvae were found only after rain inundation. Estimates of Ve. funerea and Oc. vigilax field development times were similar (8-9 d) while Oc. procax development time was slightly longer (9-10 d). Based on these survey results, control activities targeting Ve. funerea must be initiated 4 d (if using Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis de Barjac) or 5 d (if using s-methoprene) after inundation. However, Casuarina glauca Sieber canopy and branchlets covering breeding habitats may present a problem for the penetration of such treatments.

Evaluation of Melanotaenia duboulayi (Atheriniformes : Melanotaeniidae), Hypseleotris galii (Perciformes : Eleotridae), and larvicide Vectolex (R) WG (Bacillus sphaericus) for integrated control of Culex annulirostris

Australian freshwater fish species Melanotaenia duboulayi and Hypseleotris galii were selected for a small plot field evaluation of an integrated pest management strategy using native fish and VectoLex® WG (Bacillus sphaericus) for the control of Culex annulirostris Skuse, the principal freshwater vector of arbovirus Ross River virus in Australia. When tested alone, the level of control afforded by M. duboulayi and H. galii was highly dependent on the prerelease density of mosquito larvae; and even when stocking rates as high as 10 g per pond (>30 kg/ha) were used, larval abundance was too high to attain adequate control from fish alone. In contrast, treatment with VectoLex WG at 500 g/ha resulted in 100% mortality of Cx. annulirostris immatures, but no residual activity was evident. The delayed reduction of Cx. annulirostris immatures in ponds stocked with fish alone, and the recolonization by Cx. annulirostris in ponds after treatment with B. sphaericus, did not occur when both treatments were combined.

Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

Multiple alignment and sorting of peptides derived from phage-displayed random peptide libraries with polyclonal sera allows discrimination of relevant phagotopes

Biopanning of phage-displayed random peptide libraries is a powerful technique for identifying peptides that mimic epitopes (mimotopes) for monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). However, peptides derived using polyclonal antisera may represent epitopes for a diverse range of antibodies. Hence following screening of phage libraries with polyclonal antisera, including autoimmune disease sera, a procedure is required to distinguish relevant from irrelevant phagotopes. We therefore applied the multiple sequence alignment algorithm PILEUP together with a matrix for scoring amino acid substitutions based on physicochemical properties to generate guide trees depicting relatedness of selected peptides. A random heptapeptide library was biopanned nine times using no selecting antibodies, immunoglobulin G (IgG) from sera of subjects with autoimmune diseases (primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and type 1 diabetes) and three murine ascites fluids that contained mAbs to overlapping epitope(s) on the Ross River Virus envelope protein 2. Peptides randomly sampled from the library were distributed throughout the guide tree of the total set of peptides whilst many of the peptides derived in the absence of selecting antibody aligned to a single cluster. Moreover peptides selected by different sources of IgG aligned to separate clusters, each with a different amino acid motif. These alignments were validated by testing all of the 53 phagotopes derived using IgG from PBC sera for reactivity by capture ELISA with antibodies affinity purified on the E2 subunit of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDC-E2), the major autoantigen in PBC: only those phagotopes that aligned to PBC-associated clusters were reactive. Hence the multiple sequence alignment procedure discriminates relevant from irrelevant phagotopes and thus a major difficulty with biopanning phage-displayed random peptide libraries with polyclonal antibodies is surmounted.

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.

A general geomorphological recession flow model for river basins

Recession flows in a basin are controlled by the temporal evolution of its active drainage network (ADN). The geomorphological recession flow model (GRFM) assumes that both the rate of flow generation per unit ADN length (q) and the speed at which ADN heads move downstream (c) remain constant during a recession event. Thereby, it connects the power law exponent of -dQ/dt versus Q (discharge at the outlet at time t) curve, , with the structure of the drainage network, a fixed entity. In this study, we first reformulate the GRFM for Horton-Strahler networks and show that the geomorphic ((g)) is equal to D/(D-1), where D is the fractal dimension of the drainage network. We then propose a more general recession flow model by expressing both q and c as functions of Horton-Strahler stream order. We show that it is possible to have = (g) for a recession event even when q and c do not remain constant. The modified GRFM suggests that is controlled by the spatial distribution of subsurface storage within the basin. By analyzing streamflow data from 39 U.S. Geological Survey basins, we show that is having a power law relationship with recession curve peak, which indicates that the spatial distribution of subsurface storage varies across recession events. Key Points The GRFM is reformulated for Horton-Strahler networks. The GRFM is modified by allowing its parameters to vary along streams. Sub-surface storage distribution controls recession flow characteristics.

Imunocompetent Mice Model for Dengue Virus Infection

Dengue fever is a noncontagious infectious disease caused by dengue virus (DENV). DENV belongs to the family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, and is classified into four antigenically distinct serotypes: DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4. The number of nations and people affected has increased steadily and today is considered the most widely spread arbovirus (arthropod-borne viral disease) in the world. The absence of an appropriate animal model for studying the disease has hindered the understanding of dengue pathogenesis. In our study, we have found that immunocompetent C57BL/6 mice infected intraperitoneally with DENV-1 presented some signs of dengue disease such as thrombocytopenia, spleen hemorrhage, liver damage, and increase in production of IFN gamma and TNF alpha cytokines. Moreover, the animals became viremic and the virus was detected in several organs by real-time RT-PCR. Thus, this animal model could be used to study mechanism of dengue virus infection, to test antiviral drugs, as well as to evaluate candidate vaccines.

Lineage replacement accompanying duplication and rapid fixation of an RNA element in the nsP3 gene in a species of alphavirus

A sequence of thirty-six nucleotides in the nsP3 gene of Ross River virus (RRV), coding for the amino acid sequence HADTVSLDSTVS, was duplicated some time between 1969 and 1979 coinciding with the appearance of a new lineage of this virus and with a major outbreak of Epidemic Polyarthritis among residents of the Pacific Islands. This lineage of RRV continues to circulate throughout Australia and both earlier lineages, which lacked the duplicated element, now are extinct. Multiple copies of several other elements also were observed in this region of the nsP3 gene in all lineages of RRV. Multiple copies of one of these, coding for the amino acid sequence P*P*PR, were detected in the C-terminal region of the nsP3 protein of all alphaviruses except those of African origin. The fixation of duplications and insertions in 3' region of nsP3 genes from all lineages of alphaviruses, suggests they provide some fitness advantage

An arthritogenic alphavirus uses the α1β1 integrin collagen receptor

Ross River (RR) virus is an alphavirus endemic to Australia and New Guinea and is the aetiological agent of epidemic polyarthritis or RR virus disease. Here we provide evidence that RR virus uses the collagen-binding α1β1 integrin as a cellular receptor. Infection could be inhibited by collagen IV and antibodies specific for the β1 and α1 integrin proteins, and fibroblasts from α1-integrin-/- mice were less efficiently infected than wild-type fibroblasts. Soluble α1β1 integrin bound immobilized RR virus, and peptides representing the α1β1 integrin binding-site on collagen IV inhibited virus binding to cells. We speculate that two highly conserved regions within the cell-receptor binding domain of E2 mimic collagen and provide access to cellular collagen-binding receptors.