Tropical palaeoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)simulations and paleodata.

Seventeen simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO2, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs.

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the inter-annual signature of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Sea Surface Temperature (SST), on to which the ozone-hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone-hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow-timescale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea-ice cover year-round. This two-timescale behavior - rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming - is found in the two coupled models analysed, one with an idealized geometry, the other a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the timescale of the transition from cooling to warming, and their uncertainties are described. Finally we discuss the implications of our results for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone-hole on SST and sea-ice extent. %Interannual variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea ice covary such that an increase and southward shift in the surface westerlies (a positive phase of the SAM) coincides with a cooling of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around 70-50$^\circ$S and an expansion of the sea ice cover, as seen in observations and models alike. Yet, in modeling studies, the Southern Ocean warms and sea ice extent decreases in response to sustained, multi-decadal positive SAM-like wind anomalies driven by 20th century ozone depletion. Why does the Southern Ocean appear to have disparate responses to SAM-like variability on interannual and multidecadal timescales? Here it is demonstrated that the response of the Southern Ocean to ozone depletion has a fast and a slow response. The fast response is similar to the interannual variability signature of the SAM. It is dominated by an enhanced northward Ekman drift, which transports heat northward and causes negative SST anomalies in summertime, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift causes a region of Ekman divergence around 70-50$^\circ$S, which results in upwelling of warmer waters from below the mixed layer. With sustained westerly wind enhancement in that latitudinal band, the warming due to the anomalous upwelling of warm waters eventually dominates over the cooling from the anomalous Ekman drift. Hence, the slow response ultimately results in a positive SST anomaly and a reduction in the sea ice cover year round. We demonstrate this behavior in two models: one with an idealized geometry and another, more detailed, global climate model. However, the models disagree on the timescale of transition from the fast (cooling) to the slow (warming) response. Processes that controls this transition and their uncertainties are discussed.

Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

Regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 1. Description and validation

The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller-scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. The goal of this paper is to introduce the global ocean-regional atmosphere coupling concept and to show the potential benefits of this model system to simulate present-day climate. A global ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model (REMO) and global terrestrial hydrology model (HD) via the OASIS coupler. Moreover, results obtained with ROM using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ECHAM5/MPIOM CMIP3 historical simulations as boundary conditions are presented and discussed for the North Atlantic and North European region. The validation of all the model components, i.e., ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial hydrology, and ocean biogeochemistry is performed and discussed. The careful and detailed validation of ROM provides evidence that the proposed model system improves the simulation of many aspects of the regional climate, remarkably the ocean, even though some biases persist in other model components, thus leaving potential for future improvement. We conclude that ROM is a powerful tool to estimate possible impacts of climate change on the regional scale.

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

Impact of atmospheric forcing data on simulations of the Laptev Sea polynya dynamics using the sea-ice ocean model FESOM

The polynyas of the Laptev Sea are regions of particular interest due to the strong formation of Arctic sea-ice. In order to simulate the polynya dynamics and to quantify ice production, we apply the Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model FESOM. In previous simulations FESOM has been forced with daily atmospheric NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) 1. For the periods 1 April to 9 May 2008 and 1 January to 8 February 2009 we examine the impact of different forcing data: daily and 6-hourly NCEP reanalyses 1 (1.875° x 1.875°), 6-hourly NCEP reanalyses 2 (1.875° x 1.875°), 6-hourly analyses from the GME (Global Model of the German Weather Service) (0.5° x 0.5°) and high-resolution hourly COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) data (5 km x 5 km). In all FESOM simulations, except for those with 6-hourly and daily NCEP 1 data, the openings and closings of polynyas are simulated in principle agreement with satellite products. Over the fast-ice area the wind fields of all atmospheric data are similar and close to in situ measurements. Over the polynya areas, however, there are strong differences between the forcing data with respect to air temperature and turbulent heat flux. These differences have a strong impact on sea-ice production rates. Depending on the forcing fields polynya ice production ranges from 1.4 km3 to 7.8 km3 during 1 April to 9 May 2011 and from 25.7 km3 to 66.2 km3 during 1 January to 8 February 2009. Therefore, atmospheric forcing data with high spatial and temporal resolution which account for the presence of the polynyas are needed to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying ice production in polynyas.

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 degrees C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1 mg Chlm(-3). Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades: A case study at BATS and HOT

The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ (14)C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-alpha was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-alpha time series were available.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling physiological processes in plankton on enzyme kinetic principles

[EN] Many ecologically important chemical transformations in the ocean are controlled by biochemical enzyme reactions in plankton. Nitrogenase regulates the transformation of N2 to ammonium in some cyanobacteria and serves as the entryway for N2 into the ocean biosphere. Nitrate reductase controls the reduction of NO3 to NO2 and hence new production in phytoplankton. The respiratory electron transfer system in all organisms links the carbon oxidation reactions of intermediary metabolism with the reduction of oxygen in respiration. Rubisco controls the fixation of CO2 into organic matter in phytoplankton and thus is the major entry point of carbon into the oceanic biosphere. In addition to these, there are the enzymes that control CO2 production, NH4 excretion and the fluxes of phosphate. Some of these enzymes have been recognized and researched by marine scientists in the last thirty years. However, until recently the kinetic principles of enzyme control have not been exploited to formulate accurate mathematical equations of the controlling physiological expressions. Were such expressions available they would increase our power to predict the rates of chemical transformations in the extracellular environment of microbial populations whether this extracellular environment is culture media or the ocean. Here we formulate from the principles of bisubstrate enzyme kinetics, mathematical expressions for the processes of NO3 reduction, O2 consumption, N2 fixation, total nitrogen uptake.

Modeling the gas and aqueous phase chemistry of the marine boundary layer

Ein eindimensionales numerisches Modell der maritimenGrenzschicht (MBL) wurde erweitert, um chemische Reaktionenin der Gasphase, von Aerosolpartikeln und Wolkentropfen zu beschreiben. Ein Schwerpunkt war dabei die Betrachtung derReaktionszyklen von Halogenen. Soweit Ergebnisse vonMesskampagnen zur Verfuegung standen, wurden diese zurValidierung des Modells benutzt. Die Ergebnisse von frueheren Boxmodellstudien konntenbestaetigt werden. Diese zeigten die saeurekatalysierteAktivierung von Brom aus Seesalzaerosolen, die Bedeutung vonHalogenradikalen fuer die Zerstoerung von O3, diepotentielle Rolle von BrO bei der Oxidation von DMS und dievon HOBr und HOCl in der Oxidation von S(IV). Es wurde gezeigt, dass die Beruecksichtigung derVertikalprofile von meteorologischen und chemischen Groessenvon grosser Bedeutung ist. Dies spiegelt sich darin wider,dass Maxima des Saeuregehaltes von Seesalzaerosolen und vonreaktiven Halogenen am Oberrand der MBL gefunden wurden.Darueber hinaus wurde die Bedeutung von Sulfataerosolen beidem aktiven Recyceln von weniger aktiven zu photolysierbarenBromspezies gezeigt. Wolken haben grosse Auswirkungen auf die Evolution und denTagesgang der Halogene. Dies ist nicht auf Wolkenschichtenbeschraenkt. Der Tagesgang der meisten Halogene ist aufgrundeiner erhoehten Aufnahme der chemischen Substanzen in die Fluessigphase veraendert. Diese Ergebnisse betonen dieWichtigkeit der genauen Dokumentation der meteorologischenBedingungen bei Messkampagnen (besonders Wolkenbedeckungsgrad und Fluessigwassergehalt), um dieErgebnisse richtig interpretieren und mit Modellresultatenvergleichen zu koennen. Dieses eindimensionale Modell wurde zusammen mit einemBoxmodell der MBL verwendet, um die Auswirkungen vonSchiffemissionen auf die MBL abzuschaetzen, wobei dieVerduennung der Abgasfahne parameterisiert wurde. DieAuswirkungen der Emissionen sind am staerksten, wenn sie insauberen Gebieten stattfinden, die Hoehe der MBL gering istund das Einmischen von Hintergrundluft schwach ist.Chemische Reaktionen auf Hintergrundaerosolen spielen nureine geringe Rolle. In Ozeangebieten mit schwachemSchiffsverkehr sind die Auswirkungen auf die Chemie der MBL beschraenkt. In staerker befahrenen Gebieten ueberlappensich die Abgasfahnen mehrerer Schiffe und sorgen fuerdeutliche Auswirkungen. Diese Abschaetzung wurde mitSimulationen verglichen, bei denen die Emissionen alskontinuierliche Quellen behandelt wurden, wie das inglobalen Chemiemodellen der Fall ist. Wenn die Entwicklungder Abgasfahne beruecksichtigt wird, sind die Auswirkungendeutlich geringer da die Lebenszeit der Abgase in der erstenPhase nach Emission deutlich reduziert ist.

The influence of petrogenetic processes on the composition of Ocean Island Basalts

Ocean Island Basalts (OIB) provide important information on the chemical and physical characteristics of their mantle sources. However, the geochemical composition of a generated magma is significantly affected by partial melting and/or subsequent fractional crystallization processes. In addition, the isotopic composition of an ascending magma may be modified during transport through the oceanic crust. The influence of these different processes on the chemical and isotopic composition of OIB from two different localities, Hawaii and Tubuai in the Pacific Ocean, are investigated here. In a first chapter, the Os-isotope variations in suites of lavas from Kohala Volcano, Hawaii, are examined to constrain the role of melt/crust interactions on the evolution of these lavas. As 187Os/188Os sensitivity to any radiogenic contaminant strongly depend on the Os content in the melt, Os and other PGE variations are investigated first. This study reveals that Os and other PGE behavior change during the Hawaiian magma differentiation. While PGE concentrations are relatively constant in lavas with relatively primitive compositions, all PGE contents strongly decrease in the melt as it evolved through ~ 8% MgO. This likely reflects the sulfur saturation of the Hawaiian magma and the onset of sulfide fractionation at around 8% MgO. Kohala tholeiites with more than 8% MgO and rich in Os have homogeneous 187Os/188Os values likely to represent the mantle signature of Kohala lavas. However, Os isotopic ratios become more radiogenic with decreasing MgO and Os contents in the lavas, which reflects assimilation of local crust material during fractional crystallization processes. Less than 8% upper oceanic crust assimilation could have produced the most radiogenic Os-isotope ratios recorded in the shield lavas. However, these small amounts of upper crust assimilation have only negligible effects on Sr and Nd isotopic ratios and therefore, are not responsible for the Sr and Nd isotopic heterogeneities observed in Kohala lavas. In a second chapter, fractional crystallization and partial melting processes are constrained using major and trace element variations in the same suites of lavas from Kohala Volcano, Hawaii. This inverse modeling approach allows the estimation of most of the trace element composition of the Hawaiian mantle source. The calculated initial trace element pattern shows slight depletion of the concentrations from LREE to the most incompatible elements, which indicates that the incompatible element enrichments described by the Hawaiian melt patterns are entirely produced by partial melting processes. The “Kea trend” signature of lavas from Kohala Volcano is also confirmed, with Kohala lavas having lower Sr/Nd and La/Th ratios than lavas from Mauna Loa Volcano. Finally, the magmatic evolution of Tubuai Island is investigated in a last chapter using the trace element and Sr, Nd, Hf isotopic variations in mafic lava suites. The Sr, Nd and Hf isotopic data are homogeneous and typical for the HIMU-type OIB and confirms the cogenetic nature of the different mafic lavas from Tubuai Island. The trace element patterns show progressive enrichment of incompatible trace elements with increasing alkali content in the lavas, which reflect progressive decrease in the degree of partial melting towards the later volcanic events. In addition, this enrichment of incompatible trace elements is associated with relative depletion of Rb, Ba, K, Nb, Ta and Ti in the lavas, which require the presence of small amount of residual phlogopite and of a Ti-bearing phase (ilmenite or rutile) during formation of the younger analcitic and nephelinitic magmas.

Observations and modeling of the Marginal Ice Zone

Global climate change in recent decades has strongly influenced the Arctic generating pronounced warming accompanied by significant reduction of sea ice in seasonally ice-covered seas and a dramatic increase of open water regions exposed to wind [Stephenson et al., 2011]. By strongly scattering the wave energy, thick multiyear ice prevents swell from penetrating deeply into the Arctic pack ice. However, with the recent changes affecting Arctic sea ice, waves gain more energy from the extended fetch and can therefore penetrate further into the pack ice. Arctic sea ice also appears weaker during melt season, extending the transition zone between thick multi-year ice and the open ocean. This region is called the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In the Arctic, the MIZ is mainly encountered in the marginal seas, such as the Nordic Seas, the Barents Sea, the Beaufort Sea and the Labrador Sea. Formed by numerous blocks of sea ice of various diameters (floes) the MIZ, under certain conditions, allows maritime transportation stimulating dreams of industrial and touristic exploitation of these regions and possibly allowing, in the next future, a maritime connection between the Atlantic and the Pacific. With the increasing human presence in the Arctic, waves pose security and safety issues. As marginal seas are targeted for oil and gas exploitation, understanding and predicting ocean waves and their effects on sea ice become crucial for structure design and for real time safety of operations. The juxtaposition of waves and sea ice represents a risk for personnel and equipment deployed on ice, and may complicate critical operations such as platform evacuations. The risk is difficult to evaluate because there are no long-term observations of waves in ice, swell events are difficult to predict from local conditions, ice breakup can occur on very short time-scales and wave-ice interactions are beyond the scope of current forecasting models [Liu and Mollo-Christensen, 1988,Marko, 2003]. In this thesis, a newly developed Waves in Ice Model (WIM) [Williams et al., 2013a,Williams et al., 2013b] and its related Ocean and Sea Ice model (OSIM) will be used to study the MIZ and the improvements of wave modeling in ice infested waters. The following work has been conducted in collaboration with the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and within the SWARP project which aims to extend operational services supporting human activity in the Arctic by including forecast of waves in ice-covered seas, forecast of sea-ice in the presence of waves and remote sensing of both waves and sea ice conditions. The WIM will be included in the downstream forecasting services provided by Copernicus marine environment monitoring service.