Desire for fertility and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in selected antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, North West Oromia, Ethiopia- A cross sectional study

Background: Most recently fertility issues in HIV positive men and women are becoming increasingly important. Because of ART access and its good life effect, it is expected that the need and desire to get married, to have children and to have sexual partners for PLWHA would change with the regard to reproductive health. In Ethiopia HIV positive individuals may or may not have desire to have children. And the extent of this desire and how it varies by individual, health and demographic characteristics is not well known.

Objective: the aim of the study was to assess desire for fertility and associated factors among PLWHA in selected ART clinics of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia.

Methods: A cross-sectional, institutional-based study that employed quantitative and qualitative in-depth interviews was conducted. Three hundred twenty one study subjects were selected using systematic random sampling technique and the data was collected using interviewer administered structured questionnaire. Data entry and analysis were performed using EPI Info version 3.5.1 and SPSS version 16. P-value <0.05 was taken as statistically significant and logistic regression was used to control potential confounding factors.

Results: Seventy three (57.9%) of the males and seventy six (39%) of the females desired to have children, giving a total of 149(46.4%) of all study participants. PLWHA who desired children were younger (AOR:3.3, 95%CI: 1.3-8.9), married (AOR: 5.8, 95%CI: 2.7-12.8), had no children (AOR: 75, 95%CI: 20.1-273.3) and males (AOR; 1.9, 95%CI: 1.02-3.62) compared with their counter parts. The major reason for those people who did not desire children were having desired number of children 80 (46.5%) followed by fear of HIV transmission to child reported by 42 (24.4%) of them.

Conclusion: A considerable number of PLWHA wants to have a child currently or in the near future. Many variables like socio demography, partner related, number of alive children and HIV related disease condition were significantly associated with fertility desire.

Root Cause Analysis by a Combined Sparse Classification and Monte Carlo Approach

Classification methods with embedded feature selection capability are very appealing for the analysis of complex processes since they allow the analysis of root causes even when the number of input variables is high. In this work, we investigate the performance of three techniques for classification within a Monte Carlo strategy with the aim of root cause analysis. We consider the naive bayes classifier and the logistic regression model with two different implementations for controlling model complexity, namely, a LASSO-like implementation with a L1 norm regularization and a fully Bayesian implementation of the logistic model, the so called relevance vector machine. Several challenges can arise when estimating such models mainly linked to the characteristics of the data: a large number of input variables, high correlation among subsets of variables, the situation where the number of variables is higher than the number of available data points and the case of unbalanced datasets. Using an ecological and a semiconductor manufacturing dataset, we show advantages and drawbacks of each method, highlighting the superior performance in term of classification accuracy for the relevance vector machine with respect to the other classifiers. Moreover, we show how the combination of the proposed techniques and the Monte Carlo approach can be used to get more robust insights into the problem under analysis when faced with challenging modelling conditions.

On Regression Methods for Virtual Metrology in Semiconductor Manufacturing

Virtual metrology (VM) aims to predict metrology values using sensor data from production equipment and physical metrology values of preceding samples. VM is a promising technology for the semiconductor manufacturing industry as it can reduce the frequency of in-line metrology operations and provide supportive information for other operations such as fault detection, predictive maintenance and run-to-run control. The prediction models for VM can be from a large variety of linear and nonlinear regression methods and the selection of a proper regression method for a specific VM problem is not straightforward, especially when the candidate predictor set is of high dimension, correlated and noisy. Using process data from a benchmark semiconductor manufacturing process, this paper evaluates the performance of four typical regression methods for VM: multiple linear regression (MLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), neural networks (NN) and Gaussian process regression (GPR). It is observed that GPR performs the best among the four methods and that, remarkably, the performance of linear regression approaches that of GPR as the subset of selected input variables is increased. The observed competitiveness of high-dimensional linear regression models, which does not hold true in general, is explained in the context of extreme learning machines and functional link neural networks.

Large panel-survey data demonstrated country-level and ethnic minority variation in consent for health record linkage

Objectives
To investigate individual, household and country variation in consent to health record linkage.

Study Design and Setting
Data from 50,994 individuals aged 16-74 years recruited to wave 1 of a large UK general purpose household survey (January 2009 – December 2010) were analysed using multi-level logistic regression models.

Results
Overall, 70.7% of respondents consented to record linkage. Younger age, marriage, tenure, car ownership and education were all significantly associated with consent, though there was little deviation from 70% in subgroups defined by these variables. There were small increases in consent rates in individuals with poor health when defined by self-reported long term limiting illness (adjusted OR 1.11; 95%CIs 1.06, 1.16), less so when defined by General Health Questionnaire score (adjusted OR=1.05; 95%CIs 1.00, 1.10), but the range in absolute consent rates between categories was generally less than 10%. Larger differences were observed for those of non-white ethnicity who were 38% less likely to consent (adjusted OR 0.62; 95%CIs 0.59, 0.66). Consent was higher in Scotland than England (adjusted OR 1.17; 95%CIs 1.06, 1.29) but lower in Northern Ireland (adjusted OR 0.56; 95%CIs 0.50, 0.63).

Conclusion
The modest overall level of systematic bias in consent to record linkage provides reassurance for record linkage potential in general purpose household surveys. However, the low consent rates amongst non-white ethnic minority survey respondents will further compound their low survey participation rates. The reason for the country-level variation requires further study.

Characterisation of the frequent exacerbator phenotype in COPD patients in a large UK primary care population

BACKGROUND: The 'frequent exacerbator' is recognised as an important phenotype in COPD. Current understanding about this phenotype comes from prospective longitudinal clinical trials in secondary/tertiary care with little information reported in primary care populations.

AIMS: To characterize the frequent-exacerbator phenotype and identify associated risk factors in a large UK primary care COPD population.

METHODS: Using a large database of primary care patients from 80 UK general practices, patients were categorised using GOLD 2014 criteria into high and low risk groups based on exacerbation history. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to investigate covariates associated with the frequent-exacerbator phenotype and risk of experiencing a severe exacerbation (leading to hospitalisation).

RESULTS: Of the total study population (n = 9219), 2612 (28%) fulfilled the criteria for high risk frequent-exacerbators. Independent risk factors (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]) for ≥2 exacerbations were: most severely impaired modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea score (mMRC grade 4: 4.37 [2.64-7.23]), lower FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1 <30%: 2.42 [1.61-3.65]), co-morbid cardiovascular disease (1.42 [1.19-1.68]), depression (1.56 [1.22-1.99]) or osteoporosis (1.54 [1.19-2.01]), and female gender (1.20 [1.01-1.43]). Older patients (≥75 years), those with most severe lung impairment (FEV1 <30%), those with highest mMRC score and those with co-morbid osteoporosis were identified as most at risk of experiencing exacerbations requiring hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS: Although COPD exacerbations occur across all grades of disease severity, female patients with high dyspnoea scores, more severely impaired lung function and co-morbidities are at greatest risk. Elderly patients, with severely impaired lung function, high mMRC scores and osteoporosis are associated with experience of severe exacerbations requiring hospitalisation.

Two-year survival of ART restorations placed in elderly patients: A randomised controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVES: Older dentate adults are a high caries risk group who could potentially benefit from the use of the atraumatic restorative treatment (ART). This study aimed to compare the survival of ART and a conventional restorative technique (CT) using rotary instruments and a resin-modified glass-ionomer for restoring carious lesions as part of a preventive and restorative programme for older adults after 2 years.

METHODS: In this randomised controlled clinical trial, 99 independently living adults (65-90 years) with carious lesions were randomly allocated to receive either ART or conventional restorations. The survival of restorations was assessed by an independent and blinded examiner 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after restoration placement.

RESULTS: Ninety-six (67.6%) and 121 (76.6%) restorations were assessed in the ART and CT groups, respectively, after 2 years. The cumulative restoration survival percentages after 2 years were 85.4% in the ART and 90.9% in the CT group. No statistically significant between group differences were detected (p=0.2050, logistic regression analysis).

CONCLUSIONS: In terms of restoration survival, ART was as effective as a conventional restorative approach to treat older adults after 2 years. This technique could be a useful tool to provide dental care for older adults particularly in the non-clinical setting. (Trial Registration number: ISRCTN 76299321).

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: The results of this study show that ART presented survival rates similar to conventional restorations in older adults. ART appears to be a cost-effective way to provide dental care to elderly patients, particularly in out of surgery facilities, such as nursing homes.

Using Brain Data for Sentiment Analysis

We present the results of exploratory experiments using lexical valence extracted from brain using electroencephalography (EEG) for sentiment analysis. We selected 78 English words (36 for training and 42 for testing), presented as stimuli to 3 English native speakers. EEG signals were recorded from the subjects while they performed a mental imaging task for each word stimulus. Wavelet decomposition was employed to extract EEG features from the time-frequency domain. The extracted features were used as inputs to a sparse multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) classifier for valence classification, after univariate ANOVA feature selection. After mapping EEG signals to sentiment valences, we exploited the lexical polarity extracted from brain data for the prediction of the valence of 12 sentences taken from the SemEval-2007 shared task, and compared it against existing lexical resources.

Metastatic non-small cell lung cancer: a benchmark for quality end-of-life cancer care?

Objectives: To investigate the quality of end-of-life care for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Design and participants: Retrospective cohort study of patients from first hospitalisation for metastatic disease until death, using hospital, emergency department and death registration data from Victoria, Australia, between 1 July 2003 and 30 June 2010. Main outcome measures: Emergency department and hospital use; aggressiveness of care including intensive care and chemotherapy in last 30 days; palliative and supportive care provision; and place of death. Results: Metastatic NSCLC patients underwent limited aggressive treatment such as intensive care (5%) and chemotherapy (< 1%) at the end of life; however, high numbers died in acute hospitals (42%) and 61% had a length of stay of greater than 14 days in the last month of life. Although 62% were referred to palliative care services, this occurred late in the illness. In a logistic regression model adjusted for year of metastasis, age, sex, metastatic site and survival, the odds ratio (OR) of dying in an acute hospital bed compared with death at home or in a hospice unit decreased with receipt of palliative care (OR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.21–0.30) and multimodality supportive care (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.56–0.75). Conclusion: Because early palliative care for patients with metastatic NSCLC is recommended, we propose that this group be considered a benchmark of quality end-of-life care. Future work is required to determine appropriate quality-of-care targets in this and other cancer patient cohorts, with particular focus on the timeliness of palliative care engagement.

Transform both sides model: A parametric approach

A parametric regression model for right-censored data with a log-linear median regression function and a transformation in both response and regression parts, named parametric Transform-Both-Sides (TBS) model, is presented. The TBS model has a parameter that handles data asymmetry while allowing various different distributions for the error, as long as they are unimodal symmetric distributions centered at zero. The discussion is focused on the estimation procedure with five important error distributions (normal, double-exponential, Student's t, Cauchy and logistic) and presents properties, associated functions (that is, survival and hazard functions) and estimation methods based on maximum likelihood and on the Bayesian paradigm. These procedures are implemented in TBSSurvival, an open-source fully documented R package. The use of the package is illustrated and the performance of the model is analyzed using both simulated and real data sets.

Susceptibility to Invasive Meningococcal Disease: Polymorphism of Complement System Genes and Neisseria meningitidis Factor H Binding Protein

BACKGROUND: Neisseria meningitidis can cause severe infection in humans. Polymorphism of Complement Factor H (CFH) is associated with altered risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). We aimed to find whether polymorphism of other complement genes altered risk and whether variation of N. meningitidis factor H binding protein (fHBP) affected the risk association.

METHODS: We undertook a case-control study with 309 European cases and 5,200 1958 Birth Cohort and National Blood Service cohort controls. We used additive model logistic regression, accepting P<0.05 as significant after correction for multiple testing. The effects of fHBP subfamily on the age at infection and severity of disease was tested using the independent samples median test and Student's T test. The effect of CFH polymorphism on the N. meningitidis fHBP subfamily was investigated by logistic regression and Chi squared test.

RESULTS: Rs12085435 A in C8B was associated with odds ratio (OR) of IMD (0.35 [95% CI 0.19-0.67]; P = 0.03 after correction). A CFH haplotype tagged by rs3753396 G was associated with IMD (OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.42-0.76], P = 1.6x10-4). There was no bacterial load (CtrA cycle threshold) difference associated with carriage of this haplotype. Host CFH haplotype and meningococcal fHBP subfamily were not associated. Individuals infected with meningococci expressing subfamily A fHBP were younger than those with subfamily B fHBP meningococci (median 1 vs 2 years; P = 0.025).

DISCUSSION: The protective CFH haplotype alters odds of IMD without affecting bacterial load for affected heterozygotes. CFH haplotype did not affect the likelihood of infecting meningococci having either fHBP subfamily. The association between C8B rs12085435 and IMD requires independent replication. The CFH association is of interest because it is independent of known functional polymorphisms in CFH. As fHBP-containing vaccines are now in use, relationships between CFH polymorphism and vaccine effectiveness and side-effects may become important.

The British conservative party and Europe:The choosing of John Major

This article provides an empirical analysis of voting behaviour in the second ballot of the 1990 Conservative leadership contest that resulted in John Major becoming party leader and prime minister. Seven hypotheses of voting behaviour are generated from the extant literature relating voting to socio-economic variables (occupational and educational background), political variables (parliamentary experience, career status, age and electoral marginality) and ideological variables (drawn from survey data on MPs' positions on economic, European and moral issues). These hypotheses are tested using data on voting intentions gathered from published lists of MPs' declarations, interviews with each of the leadership campaign teams, and correspondence with MPs. Bivariate relationships are presented, followed by logistic regression analysis to isolate the unique impact that each variable had on voting. This shows that educational background, parliamentary experience and (especially) attitudes to Europe were the key factors determining voting. The importance of Europe in the contest is particularly instructive: the severe problems for Major's leadership which were caused by the issue can be attributed to, and understood in the context of, the 1990 contest in which he became leader.

Nanoscale reinforced orthopaedic bone cement with graphene oxide - a possible solution to aseptic loosening of cemented hip implants? Preliminary results of an ongoing study

Hip replacement surgery is amongst the most common orthopaedic operations performed in the UK. Aseptic loosening is responsible for 40% of hip revision procedures. Aseptic loosening is a result of cement mantle fatigue. The aim of the current study is to analyse the effect of nanoscale Graphene Oxide (GO) on the mechanical properties of orthopaedic bone cement. Study Design A experimental thermal and mechanical analysis was conducted in a laboratory set up conforming to international standards for bone cement testing according to ISO 5583. Testing was performed on control cement samples of Colacryl bone cement, and additional samples reinforced with variable wt% of Graphene Oxide containing composites – 0.1%, 0.25%, 0.5% and 1.0% GO loading. Pilot Data Porosity demonstrated a linear relationship with increasing wt% loading compared to control (p<0.001). Thermal characterisation demonstrated maximal temperature during polymerization, and generated exotherm were inversely proportional to w%t loading (p<0.05) Fatigue strength performed on the control and 0.1 and 0.25%wt loadings of GO demonstrate increased average cycles to failure compared to control specimens. A right shift of the Weibull curve was demonstrated for both wt% available currently. Logistic regression analysis for failure demonstrated significant increases in number of cycles to failure for both specimens compared to a control (p<0.001). Forward Plan Early results convey positive benefits at low wt% loadings of GO containing bone cement. Study completion and further analysis is required in order to elude to the optimum w%t of GO which conveys the greatest mechanical advantage.

Are Alaskan trees found in locally more favourable sites in marginal areas?

Aim Species generally become rarer and more patchily distributed as the margins of their ranges are approached. We predicted that in such marginal sites, tree species would tend to occur where some key environmental factors are at particularly favourable levels, compensating in part for the low overall suitability of marginal sites.

Location The article considers the spatial distributions of trees in Southeast Alaska (the Alaskan 'panhandle').

Methods We quantified range marginality using spatial distributions of eight tree species across more than one thousand surveyed sites in Southeast Alaska. For each species we derived a site core/margin index using a three-dimensional trend surface generated from logistic regression on site coordinates. For each species, the relationships between the environmental factors slope, aspect and site marginality were then compared for occupied and unoccupied sets of sites.

Results We found that site slope is important for more Alaskan tree species than aspect. Three out of eight had a significant core/margin by occupied/unoccupied interaction, tending to be present in significantly shallower-sloped (more favourable) sites in the marginal areas than the simple core/margin trend predicted. For site aspect, one species had a significant interaction, selecting potentially more favourable northerly aspects in marginal areas. A finer-scale analysis based on the same data came to the same overall conclusions.

Conclusions There is evidence that several tree species in Alaska tend to occur in especially favourable sites in marginal areas. In these marginal areas, these species amplify habitat preferences shown in core areas.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.