Towards identifying salient patterns in genetic programming individuals

This thesis addresses the problem of offline identification of salient patterns in genetic programming individuals. It discusses the main issues related to automatic pattern identification systems, namely that these (a) should help in understanding the final solutions of the evolutionary run, (b) should give insight into the course of evolution and (c) should be helpful in optimizing future runs. Moreover, it proposes an algorithm, Extended Pattern Growing Algorithm ([E]PGA) to extract, filter and sort the identified patterns so that these fulfill as many as possible of the following criteria: (a) they are representative for the evolutionary run and/or search space, (b) they are human-friendly and (c) their numbers are within reasonable limits. The results are demonstrated on six problems from different domains.

Emergence in genetic programming:let's exploit it!

Banzhaf explores the concept of emergence and how and where it happens in genetic programming [1]. Here we consider the question: what shall we do with it? We argue that given our ultimate goal to produce genetic programming systems that solve new and difficult problems, we should take advantage of emergence to get closer to this goal. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Evolution of lace knitting stitch patterns by genetic programming

In this paper we study the generation of lace knitting stitch patterns by using genetic programming. We devise a genetic representation of knitting charts that accurately reflects their usage for hand knitting the pattern. We apply a basic evolutionary algorithm for generating the patterns, where the key of success is evaluation. We propose automatic evaluation of the patterns, without interaction with the user. We present some patterns generated by the method and then discuss further possibilities for bringing automatic evaluation closer to human evaluation. Copyright 2007 ACM.

Study of the uncertainty of angle measurement for a rotary-laser automatic theodolite (R-LAT)

This paper shows how the angular uncertainties can be determined for a rotary-laser automatic theodolite of the type used in (indoor-GPS) iGPS networks. Initially, the fundamental physics of the rotating head device is used to propagate uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulation. This theoretical element of the study shows how the angular uncertainty is affected by internal parameters, the actual values of which are estimated. Experiments are then carried out to determine the actual uncertainty in the azimuth angle. Results are presented that show that uncertainty decreases with sampling duration. Other significant findings are that uncertainty is relatively constant throughout the working volume and that the uncertainty value is not dependent on the size of the reference angle. © 2009 IMechE.

Automatically Evolving Rotation-invariant Texture Image Descriptors by Genetic Programming

In computer vision, training a model that performs classification effectively is highly dependent on the extracted features, and the number of training instances. Conventionally, feature detection and extraction are performed by a domain-expert who, in many cases, is expensive to employ and hard to find. Therefore, image descriptors have emerged to automate these tasks. However, designing an image descriptor still requires domain-expert intervention. Moreover, the majority of machine learning algorithms require a large number of training examples to perform well. However, labelled data is not always available or easy to acquire, and dealing with a large dataset can dramatically slow down the training process. In this paper, we propose a novel Genetic Programming based method that automatically synthesises a descriptor using only two training instances per class. The proposed method combines arithmetic operators to evolve a model that takes an image and generates a feature vector. The performance of the proposed method is assessed using six datasets for texture classification with different degrees of rotation, and is compared with seven domain-expert designed descriptors. The results show that the proposed method is robust to rotation, and has significantly outperformed, or achieved a comparable performance to, the baseline methods.

Evolution of classifiers for pitch estimation of piano music using cartesian genetic programming

Pitch Estimation, also known as Fundamental Frequency (F0) estimation, has been a popular research topic for many years, and is still investigated nowadays. The goal of Pitch Estimation is to find the pitch or fundamental frequency of a digital recording of a speech or musical notes. It plays an important role, because it is the key to identify which notes are being played and at what time. Pitch Estimation of real instruments is a very hard task to address. Each instrument has its own physical characteristics, which reflects in different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, the recording conditions can vary from studio to studio and background noises must be considered. This dissertation presents a novel approach to the problem of Pitch Estimation, using Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP).We take advantage of evolutionary algorithms, in particular CGP, to explore and evolve complex mathematical functions that act as classifiers. These classifiers are used to identify piano notes pitches in an audio signal. To help us with the codification of the problem, we built a highly flexible CGP Toolbox, generic enough to encode different kind of programs. The encoded evolutionary algorithm is the one known as 1 + , and we can choose the value for . The toolbox is very simple to use. Settings such as the mutation probability, number of runs and generations are configurable. The cartesian representation of CGP can take multiple forms and it is able to encode function parameters. It is prepared to handle with different type of fitness functions: minimization of f(x) and maximization of f(x) and has a useful system of callbacks. We trained 61 classifiers corresponding to 61 piano notes. A training set of audio signals was used for each of the classifiers: half were signals with the same pitch as the classifier (true positive signals) and the other half were signals with different pitches (true negative signals). F-measure was used for the fitness function. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were correctly identified by the classifier, count as a true positives. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were not correctly identified by the classifier, count as a false negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were not identified by the classifier, count as a true negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were identified by the classifier, count as a false positives. Our first approach was to evolve classifiers for identifying artifical signals, created by mathematical functions: sine, sawtooth and square waves. Our function set is basically composed by filtering operations on vectors and by arithmetic operations with constants and vectors. All the classifiers correctly identified true positive signals and did not identify true negative signals. We then moved to real audio recordings. For testing the classifiers, we picked different audio signals from the ones used during the training phase. For a first approach, the obtained results were very promising, but could be improved. We have made slight changes to our approach and the number of false positives reduced 33%, compared to the first approach. We then applied the evolved classifiers to polyphonic audio signals, and the results indicate that our approach is a good starting point for addressing the problem of Pitch Estimation.

Damage assessment of structures with uncertainty by using mode-shape curvatures and fuzzy logic

Uncertainties associated with the structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage detection. In this paper, we show that geometric and measurement uncertainty cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can be alleviated by using a fuzzy logic-based approach for damage detection. Curvature damage factor (CDF) of a tapered cantilever beam are used as damage indicators. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to study the changes in the damage indicator due to uncertainty in the geometric properties of the beam. Variation in these CDF measures due to randomness in structural parameter, further contaminated with measurement noise, are used for developing and testing a fuzzy logic system (FLS). Results show that the method correctly identifies both single and multiple damages in the structure. For example, the FLS detects damage with an average accuracy of about 95 percent in a beam having geometric uncertainty of 1 percent COV and measurement noise of 10 percent in single damage scenario. For multiple damage case, the FLS identifies damages in the beam with an average accuracy of about 94 percent in the presence of above mentioned uncertainties. The paper brings together the disparate areas of probabilistic analysis and fuzzy logic to address uncertainty in structural damage detection.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

HABITAT : a longitudinal multilevel study of physical acitvity change in mid-aged adults

Purpose. To explore the role of the neighborhood environment in supporting walking Design. Cross sectional study of 10,286 residents of 200 neighborhoods. Participants were selected using a stratified two-stage cluster design. Data were collected by mail survey (68.5% response rate). Setting. The Brisbane City Local Government Area, Australia, 2007. Subjects. Brisbane residents aged 40 to 65 years. Measures. Environmental: street connectivity, residential density, hilliness, tree coverage, bikeways, and street lights within a one kilometer circular buffer from each resident’s home; and network distance to nearest river or coast, public transport, shop, and park. Walking: minutes in the previous week categorized as < 30 minutes, ≥ 30 < 90 minutes, ≥ 90 < 150 minutes, ≥ 150 < 300 minutes, and ≥ 300 minutes. Analysis. The association between each neighborhood characteristic and walking was examined using multilevel multinomial logistic regression and the model parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Results. After adjustment for individual factors, the likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes (relative to <30 minutes) was highest in areas with the most connectivity (OR=1.93, 99% CI 1.32-2.80), the greatest residential density (OR=1.47, 99% CI 1.02-2.12), the least tree coverage (OR=1.69, 99% CI 1.13-2.51), the most bikeways (OR=1.60, 99% CI 1.16-2.21), and the most street lights (OR=1.50, 99% CI 1.07-2.11). The likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes was also higher among those who lived closest to a river or the coast (OR=2.06, 99% CI 1.41-3.02). Conclusion. The likelihood of meeting (and exceeding) physical activity recommendations on the basis of walking was higher in neighborhoods with greater street connectivity and residential density, more street lights and bikeways, closer proximity to waterways, and less tree coverage. Interventions targeting these neighborhood characteristics may lead to improved environmental quality as well as lower rates of overweight and obesity and associated chromic disease.

The association between objectively measured neighborhood features and walking in middle-aged adults

Purpose: To explore the role of the neighborhood environment in supporting walking Design: Cross sectional study of 10,286 residents of 200 neighborhoods. Participants were selected using a stratified two-stage cluster design. Data were collected by mail survey (68.5% response rate). Setting: The Brisbane City Local Government Area, Australia, 2007. Subjects: Brisbane residents aged 40 to 65 years. Measures Environmental: street connectivity, residential density, hilliness, tree coverage, bikeways, and street lights within a one kilometer circular buffer from each resident’s home; and network distance to nearest river or coast, public transport, shop, and park. Walking: minutes in the previous week categorized as < 30 minutes, ≥ 30 < 90 minutes, ≥ 90 < 150 minutes, ≥ 150 < 300 minutes, and ≥ 300 minutes. Analysis: The association between each neighborhood characteristic and walking was examined using multilevel multinomial logistic regression and the model parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Results: After adjustment for individual factors, the likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes (relative to <30 minutes) was highest in areas with the most connectivity (OR=1.93, 99% CI 1.32-2.80), the greatest residential density (OR=1.47, 99% CI 1.02-2.12), the least tree coverage (OR=1.69, 99% CI 1.13-2.51), the most bikeways (OR=1.60, 99% CI 1.16-2.21), and the most street lights (OR=1.50, 99% CI 1.07-2.11). The likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes was also higher among those who lived closest to a river or the coast (OR=2.06, 99% CI 1.41-3.02). Conclusion: The likelihood of meeting (and exceeding) physical activity recommendations on the basis of walking was higher in neighborhoods with greater street connectivity and residential density, more street lights and bikeways, closer proximity to waterways, and less tree coverage. Interventions targeting these neighborhood characteristics may lead to improved environmental quality as well as lower rates of overweight and obesity and associated chromic disease.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.