Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.

Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land

A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a “wet gets wetter” signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

The impact of climate variability and change on cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis rates in New Zealand

Aim: To investigate the spatial relationship between climate variability and cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis notifications in New Zealand between 1997 and 2006.

Methods: Negative binomial regression was used to analyse spatial relationships between cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis notifications in New Zealand between 1997 and 2006, and climatological average rainfall and temperature at the Census Area Unit (CAU) level. The quality of domestic water supplies, urban-rural status and deprivation were included as covariates.

Main results: Giardiasis: There was a positive association between rainfall and giardiasis and between temperature and giardiasis.

Cryptosporidiosis: There was a positive association between rainfall and cryptosporidiosis and a negative association between temperature and cryptosporidiosis. The effect of rainfall was modified by the quality of the domestic water supply.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that climate variability affects protozoan disease rates in New Zealand. However, predicting the effect of climate change from this study is difficult, as these results suggest that the projected increases in temperature and rainfall may have opposing effects on cryptosporidiosis rates. Nevertheless, water supply quality appeared to modify the impact of increased rainfall on cryptosporidiosis rates. This finding suggests that improving water supply quality in New Zealand could reduce vulnerability to the impact of climate change on protozoan diseases.

Holocene record of Tuggerah Lake estuary development on the Australian east coast: sedimentary responses to sea-level fluctuations and climate variability

We investigated the Holocene palaeo-environmental record of the Tuggerah Lake barrier estuary on the south-east coast of Australia to determine the influence of local, regional and global environmental changes on estuary development. Using multi-proxy approaches, we identified significant down-core variation in sediment cores relating to sea-level rise and regional climate change. Following erosion of the antecedent land surface during the post-glacial marine transgression, sediment began to accumulate at the more seaward location at ~8500. years before present, some 1500. years prior to barrier emplacement and ~4000. years earlier than at the landward site. The delay in sediment accumulation at the landward site was a consequence of exposure to wave action prior to barrier emplacement, and due to high river flows of the mid-Holocene post-barrier emplacement. As a consequence of the mid-Holocene reduction in river flows, coupled with a moderate decline in sea-level, the lake experienced major changes in conditions at ~4000. years before present. The entrance channel connecting the lake with the ocean became periodically constricted, producing cyclic alternation between intervals of fluvial- and marine-dominated conditions. Overall, this study provides a detailed, multi-proxy investigation of the physical evolution of Tuggerah Lake with causative environmental processes that have influenced development of the estuary.

The effects of climate change on the coasts of Latin America and the Caribbean: Climate variability, dynamics and trends

This effort to study the effects of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean has been divided into four main parts in line with the comprehensive risk-assessment methodology developed. The outputs of this regional study are presented in four core documents: an analysis of coastal dynamics and climate variability, a study on the vulnerability of coastal areas, an evaluation of the impacts of climate change and an exploration of how all these different factors can be brought together in an assessment of the risks of the impacts of climate change on the region’s coastal areas. The overall objective of this study is to compile the specific types of information required in order to analyse the economic impacts of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The area covered by the study encompasses the coastlines of Latin America and the Caribbean (an area totalling approximately 72,182 km in length).

Millennial-Scale Climate Variability during the Last Glacial Period in the Tropical Andes

Millennial-scale climate variation during the Last Glacial period is evident in many locations worldwide, but it is unclear if such variation occurred in the interior of tropical South America, and, if so, how the low-latitude variation was related to its high-latitude counterpart. A high-resolution record, derived from the deep drilling of sediments on the floor of Lake Titicaca in the southern tropical Andes, is presented that shows clear evidence of millennial-scale climate variation between ~60 and 20 ka BP. This variation is manifested by alternations of two interbedded sedimentary units. The two units have distinctive sedimentary, geochemical, and paleobiotic properties that are controlled by the relative abundance of terrigenous or nearshore components versus pelagic components. The sediments of more terrigenous or nearshore nature likely were deposited during regionally wetter climates when river transport of water and sediment was higher, whereas the sediments of more pelagic character were deposited during somewhat drier climates regionally. The majority of the wet periods inferred from the Lake Titicaca sediment record are correlated with the cold events in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, indicating that increased intensity of the South American summer monsoon was part of near-global scale climate excursions.

Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records

We present the first high resolution, approximately similar to 4 years sample spacing, precipitation record from northeastern Brazil (hereafter referred to as 'Nordeste') covering the last similar to 3000 yrs from Th-230-dated stalagmites oxygen isotope records. Our record shows abrupt fluctuations in rainfall tied to variations in the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), including the periods corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and an event around 2800 yr B.P. Unlike other monsoon records in southern tropical South America, dry conditions prevailed during the LIA in the Nordeste. Our record suggests that the region is currently undergoing drought conditions that are unprecedented over the past 3 millennia, rivaled only by the LIA period. Using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses we show that changes in SASM activity in the region are mainly associated with variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and to a lesser degree caused by fluctuations in tropical Pacific SST. Our record also shows a distinct periodicity around 210 years, which has been linked to solar variability. Citation: Novello, V. F., et al. (2012), Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23706, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053936.

Recent and historical climate variability effects on the population dynamics of several marine species

Eliminadas las páginas en blanco

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

An Innovation System Perspective on Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability and Water Management in India

Government policies play a critical role in influencing market conditions, institutions and overall agricultural productivity. The thesis therefore looks into the history of agriculture development in India. Taking a political economy perspective, the historical account looks at significant institutional and technological innovations carried out in pre- independent and post independent India. It further focuses on the Green Revolution in Asia, as forty years after; the agricultural community still faces the task of addressing recurrent issue of food security amidst emerging challenges, such as climate change. It examines the Green Revolution that took place in India during the late 1960s and 70s in a historical perspective, identifying two factors of institutional change and political leadership. Climate change in agriculture development has become a major concern to farmers, researchers and policy makers alike. However, there is little knowledge on the farmers’ perception to climate change and to the extent they coincide with actual climatic data. Using a qualitative approach,it looks into the perceptions of the farmers in four villages in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. While exploring the adaptation strategies, the chapter looks into the dynamics of who can afford a particular technology and who cannot and what leads to a particular adaptation decision thus determining the adaptive capacity in water management. The final section looks into the devolution of authority for natural resource management to local user groups through the Water Users’ Associations as an important approach to overcome the long-standing challenges of centralized state bureaucracies in India. It addresses the knowledge gap of why some local user groups are able to overcome governance challenges such as elite capture, while others-that work under the design principles developed by Elinor Ostrom. It draws conclusions on how local leadership, can be promoted to facilitate participatory irrigation management.