Model to predict inpatient mortality from information gathered at presentation to an emergency department: The Triage Information Mortality Model (TIMM)

OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a mortality prediction model from information available at ED triage. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression of variables from administrative datasets to predict inpatient mortality of patients admitted through an ED. Accuracy of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. The model was derived, internally validated and externally validated. Derivation and internal validation were in a tertiary referral hospital and external validation was in an urban community hospital. RESULTS: The ROC-AUC for the derivation set was 0.859 (95% CI 0.856-0.865), for the internal validation set was 0.848 (95% CI 0.840-0.856) and for the external validation set was 0.837 (95% CI 0.823-0.851). Calibration assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was good. CONCLUSIONS: The model successfully predicts inpatient mortality from information available at the point of triage in the ED.

Effect of maternal obesity on diabetes development in adult rat offspring

This study aimed to evaluate whether maternal obesity leads to the onset of diabetes in adult Wistar rats offspring. MSG solution neonatally administration induced obesity in rats (F(1)MSG group, n = 30); and saline solution was also administrated to control rats (F1CON group, n = 13). In 3rd month of age, both control and MS G groups were mated for offspring (generation FA named as F2CON, n = 28 and F(2)MSG groups, n = 15; and so both generations were studied until 7th month of life. Lee Index was measured for experimental obesity validation from 5th to 7th month. Glycemia was weekly determined during pregnancy and monthly from 3rd to 7th month. In the end of experimental period all rats were submitted to oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), with estimation of total area under the curve (AUC); and insulin tolerance test (ITT). Rats were then anesthetized and killed. Data were statistically analyzed with significance level of p < 0.05. Lee Index has confirmed obesity in all MSG rats. Glycemic levels comparisons between generations showed significant maternal interference in control and MSG groups. OGTT analysis showed higher glycemia in obese rats (F(1)MSG) and their offspring (F(2)MSG) as compared to their respective controls; and MSG groups increased AUC from OGTT. As regards ITT, F(2)MSG showed higher glycemia at 30 and 120 min, suggesting a delay of insulin action decreasing. Although glucose intolerance and insulin resistance clinical conditions represent as a factors for type 2 Diabetes mellitus development, this experimental model proposal was not efficient to induce type 2 Diabetes mellitus, but for obesity developing, glucose intolerance and insulin resistance in successive generations of rats. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mortalidade e prognóstico específico em pacientes com insuficiência renal aguda

A variety of systems of risk factor stratification have been studied to predict the outcome in acute renal failure (ARF). OBJECTIVES. Assess and compare mortality and the Acute Tubular Necrosis Individual Severity Score (ATN-ISS) in patients with AFR treated in a university hospital. METHODS. A prospective analysis was made of 103 patients with a diagnosis of intrinsic ARF admitted to the Hospital das Clinicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, UNESP. Patients were followed up until recovery of renal function or death. The Score ATN-ISS was recorded during the first hours of the assessment by a nephrologist. Results were reported as median or mean ± SD, with statistical significance of p<0.05. RESULTS. Fifty-one percent of patients were male with a mean age of 58 ± 36 years. Forty-four percent died in the hospital. Mortality was higher in patients from the surgical wards (52.7%) and in patients who were treated with dialysis (63.8%). The score ATN-ISS showed a good confidence level, with high discriminatory power (area under the curve of 0.95) and good accuracy. CONCLUSIONS. Mortality in this study was comparable to that found in literature. The ATN-ISS was shown to be a prognostic index with a high confidence level that could be routinely applied by nephrologists to patients with AFR.

Validation of the UNESP-Botucatu unidimensional composite pain scale for assessing postoperative pain in cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of dipyrone, meloxicam, or the combination on hemostasis in conscious dogs

To compare the effects of dipyrone, meloxicam, and of the combination of these drugs on hemostasis in dogs. Prospective, blinded, randomized crossover study. Research laboratory at a veterinary teaching hospital. Six adult dogs. Animals received 4 intravenous treatments with 15-day washout intervals: control (physiological saline, 0.1 mL/kg), meloxicam (0.2 mg/kg), dipyrone (25 mg/kg), and dipyrone-meloxicam (25 and 0.2 mg/kg, respectively). A jugular catheter was placed for drug injection and for collecting samples for whole blood platelet aggregation (WBPA) and thromboelastometry assays at baseline, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 8 hours after treatment administration. The percent change from baseline of lag time and of the area under the curve (AUC) of impedance changes in response to collagen-induced platelet activation were recorded during WBPA. Thromboelastometry-derived parameters included clotting time, clot formation time, alpha-angle, and maximum clot firmness. The buccal mucosal bleeding time was evaluated by a blinded observer at baseline, 1, 3, and 5 hours after treatment injection. No significant changes in WBPA and thromboelastometry were recorded in the control treatment. Dipyrone significantly (P < 0.05) increased the lag time for 2 hours and decreased the AUC for 3 hours after injection. Meloxicam did not alter WBPA. Dipyrone-meloxicam significantly increased lag time for 2 hours and decreased the AUC for 5 hours after treatment injection. Experimental treatments did not differ from the control treatment for thromboelastometry and buccal mucosal bleeding time. While meloxicam does not alter hemostasis by the methods evaluated, dipyrone inhibits platelet aggregation for up to 3 hours. Meloxicam-dipyrone combination causes more prolonged inhibition of platelet function than dipyrone alone. Decreased platelet aggregation induced by dipyrone and dipyrone-meloxicam does not appear to impact the viscoelastic properties of the blood clot nor increase the risk of bleeding in dogs without preexisting hemostatic disorders.

Anthropometric indicators predict metabolic syndrome diagnosis in maintenance hemodialysis patients

Obesity has been considered the key in metabolic syndrome (MetS) development, and fat accumulation may be responsible for the occurrence of metabolic abnormalities in hemodialysis patients. The use of gold-standard methods to evaluate obesity is limited, and anthropometric measures may be the simplest methods. However, no study has investigated the association between anthropometric indexes and MetS in these patients. Therefore, the aim was to determine which anthropometric indexes had the best association and prediction for MetS in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Cross-sectional study that included patients older than 18 years, undergoing hemodialysis for at least 3 months. Patients with liver disease and cancer or those receiving corticosteroids or antiretroviral therapy were excluded. Diagnostic criteria from Harmonizing Metabolic Syndrome were used for the diagnosis of MetS. Anthropometric indexes evaluated were body mass index (BMI); percent standard of triceps skinfold thickness and of middle arm muscle circumference; waist circumference (WC); sagittal abdominal diameter; neck circumference; waist-to-hip, waist-to-thigh, and waist-to-height ratios; sagittal index; conicity index; and body fat percentage. Ninety-eight patients were included, 54.1% male, and mean age was 57.8 ± 12.9 years. The prevalence of MetS was 74.5%. Individuals with MetS had increased accumulation of abdominal fat and general obesity. Waist-to-height ratio was the variable independently associated with MetS diagnosis (odds ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.34; P < .01) and that better predicts MetS, followed by WC and BMI (area under the curve of 0.840, 0.836, and 0.798, respectively, P < .01). Waist-to-height ratio was the best anthropometric predictor of MetS in maintenance hemodialysis patients.

BNP and Admission Glucose as In-Hospital Mortality Predictors in Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Objectives. Admission hyperglycemia and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) are associated with mortality in acute coronary syndromes, but no study compares their prediction in-hospital death. Methods. Patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), in-hospital mortality and two-year mortality or readmission were compared for area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy (ACC) of glycemia and BNP. Results. Respectively, AUC, SEN, SPE, PPV, NPV, and ACC for prediction of in-hospital mortality were 0.815, 71.4%, 84.3%, 26.3%, 97.4%, and 83.3% for glycemia = 200 mg/dL and 0.748, 71.4%, 68.5%, 15.2%, 96.8% and 68.7% for BNP = 300 pg/mL. AUC of glycemia was similar to BNP (P = 0.411). In multivariate analysis we found glycemia >= 200mg/dL related to in-hospital death (P = 0.004). No difference was found in two-year mortality or readmission in BNP or hyperglycemic subgroups. Conclusion. Hyperglycemia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in NSTEMI and had a good ROC curve level. Hyperglycemia and BNP, although poor in-hospital predictors of unfavorable events, were independent risk factors for death or length of stay >10 days. No relation was found between hyperglycemia or BNP and long-term events.

Prediction of enzymatic infarct size in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Objectives Predictors of adverse outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) are well established; however, little is known about what predicts enzymatically estimated infarct size in patients with acute ST-elevation MI. The Complement And Reduction of INfarct size after Angioplasty or Lytics trials of pexelizumab used creatine kinase (CK)-MB area under the curve to determine infarct size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or fibrinolysis. Methods Prediction of infarct size was carried out by measuring CK-MB area under the curve in patients with ST-segment elevation MI treated with reperfusion therapy from January 2000 to April 2002. Infarct size was calculated in 1622 patients (PCI=817; fibrinolysis=805). Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between baseline demographics, total ST-segment elevation, index angiographic findings (PCI group), and binary outcome of CK-MB area under the curve greater than 3000 ng/ml. Results Large infarcts occurred in 63% (515) of the PCI group and 69% (554) of the fibrinolysis group. Independent predictors of large infarcts differed depending on mode of reperfusion. In PCI, male sex, no prior coronary revascularization and diabetes, decreased systolic blood pressure, sum of ST-segment elevation, total (angiographic) occlusion, and nonright coronary artery culprit artery were independent predictors of larger infarcts (C index=0.73). In fibrinolysis, younger age, decreased heart rate, white race, no history of arrhythmia, increased time to fibrinolytic therapy in patients treated up to 2 h after symptom onset, and sum of ST-segment elevation were independently associated with a larger infarct size (C index=0.68). Conclusion Clinical and patient data can be used to predict larger infarcts on the basis of CK-MB quantification. These models may be helpful in designing future trials and in guiding the use of novel pharmacotherapies aimed at limiting infarct size in clinical practice. Coron Artery Dis 23:118-125 (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Urinary soluble HLA-DR is a potential biomarker for acute renal transplant rejection

BACKGROUND.: Urine is a potentially rich source of biomarkers for monitoring kidney dysfunction. In this study, we have investigated the potential of soluble human leukocyte antigen (sHLA)-DR in the urine for noninvasive monitoring of renal transplant patients. METHODS.: Urinary soluble HLA-DR levels were measured by sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 103 patients with renal diseases or after renal transplantation. sHLA-DR in urine was characterized by Western blotting and mass spectrometry. RESULTS.: Acute graft rejection was associated with a significantly elevated level of urinary sHLA-DR (P<0.0001), compared with recipients with stable graft function or healthy individuals. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the area under the curve to be 0.88 (P<0.001). At a selected threshold, the sensitivity was 80% and specificity was 98% for detection of acute renal transplant rejection. sHLA-DR was not exosomally associated and was of lower molecular weight compared with the HLA-DR expressed as heterodimer on the plasma membrane of antigen-presenting cells. CONCLUSIONS.: sHLA-DR excreted into urine is a promising indicator of renal transplant rejection.

The effect of increased lipid intake on hormonal responses during aerobic exercise in endurance-trained men

In view of the growing health problem associated with obesity, clarification of the regulation of energy homeostasis is important. Peripheral signals, such as ghrelin and leptin, have been shown to influence energy homeostasis. Nutrients and physical exercise, in turn, influence hormone levels. Data on the hormonal response to physical exercise (standardized negative energy balance) after high-fat (HF) or low-fat (LF) diet with identical carbohydrate intake are currently not available. The aim of the study was to investigate whether a short-term dietary intervention with HF and LF affects ghrelin and leptin levels and their modulators, GH, insulin and cortisol, before and during aerobic exercise. Eleven healthy, endurance-trained male athletes (W(max) 365 +/- 29 W) were investigated twice in a randomized crossover design following two types of diet: 1. LF - 0.5 g fat/kg body weight (BW) per day for 2.5 days; 2. HF - 0.5 g fat/kg BW per day for 1 day followed by 3.5 g fat/kg BW per day for 1.5 days. After a standardized carbohydrate snack in the morning, metabolites and hormones (GH, ghrelin, leptin, insulin and cortisol) were measured before and at regular intervals throughout a 3-h aerobic exercise test on a cycloergometer at 50% of W(max). Diet did not significantly affect GH and cortisol concentrations during exercise but resulted in a significant increase in ghrelin and decrease in leptin concentrations after LF compared with HF diet (area under the curve (AUC) ghrelin LF vs HF: P < 0.03; AUC leptin LF vs HF: P < 0.02, Wilcoxon rank test). These data suggest that acute negative energy balance induced by exercise elicits a hormonal response with opposite changes of ghrelin and leptin. In addition, the hormonal response is modulated by the preceding intake of fat.

Responsiveness and habituation of soluble icam-1 to acute psychosocial stress in men: determinants and efect of stress-hemoconcentration

We studied the psychophysiology of soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) in 25 apparently healthy middle-aged men who underwent an acute psychosocial stressor three times with one week apart. Measures of the biological stress response were obtained at week one and three. The magnitude of the sICAM-1 stress response showed no habituation between visits. At week one, cognitive stress appraisal independently predicted integrated sICAM-1 area under the curve (AUC) between rest, immediately post-stress, and 45 min and 105 min post-stress (beta=.67, p=.012, deltaR(2)=.41). Diastolic blood pressure AUC (beta=-.45, p=.048, deltaR(2)=.21) and heart rate (AUC) (beta=.44, p=.055, deltaR(2)=.21) were independent predictors of sICAM-1 (AUC) at week three. Adjustment for hemoconcentration yielded a decrease in sICAM-1 levels from rest to post-stress (p<.001). Stress responsiveness of plasma sICAM-1 was predicted by stress perception and hemodynamic reactivity and affected by stress-hemoconcentration but unrelated to cortisol reactivity and not readily adapting to stress repeats.

The role of stress hormones in the relationship between resting blood pressure and coagulation activity

BACKGROUND: Systemic hypertension confers a hypercoagulable state. We hypothesized that resting mean blood pressure (MBP) interacts with stress hormones in predicting coagulation activity at rest and with acute mental stress. METHODS: We measured plasma clotting factor VII activity (FVII:C), FVIII:C, fibrinogen, D-dimer, epinephrine and norepinephrine, and saliva cortisol in 42 otherwise healthy normotensive and hypertensive medication-free men (mean age 43 +/- 14 years) at rest, immediately after stress, and twice during 60 min of recovery from stress. RESULTS: At rest, the MBP-by-epinephrine interaction predicted FVII:C (beta = -0.33, P < 0.04) and D-dimer (beta = 0.26, P < 0.05), and the MBP-by-cortisol interaction predicted D-dimer (beta = 0.43, P = 0.001), all independent of age and body mass index (BMI). Resting norepinephrine predicted fibrinogen (beta = 0.42, P < 0.01) and D-dimer (beta = 0.37, P < 0.03), both independent of MBP. MBP predicted FVIII:C change from rest to immediately post-stress independent of epinephrine (beta = -0.37, P < 0.03) and norepinephrine (beta = -0.38, P < 0.02). Cortisol change predicted FVIII:C change (beta = -0.30, P < 0.05) independent of age, BMI and MBP. Integrated norepinephrine change from rest to recovery (area under the curve, AUC) predicted D-dimer AUC (beta = 0.34, P = 0.04) independent of MBP. The MBP-by-epinephrine AUC interaction predicted FVII:C AUC (beta = 0.28) and fibrinogen AUC (beta = -0.30), and the MBP-by-norepinephrine AUC interaction predicted FVIII:C AUC (beta = -0.28), all with borderline significance (Ps < 0.09) and independent of age and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: MBP significantly altered the association between stress hormones and coagulation activity at rest and, with borderline significance, across the entire stress and recovery interval. Independent of MBP, catecholamines were associated with procoagulant effects and cortisol reactivity dampened the acute procoagulant stress response.

Association of biomarkers of lipid modification with functional and morphological indices of coronary stenosis severity in stable coronary artery disease

Biomarkers of blood lipid modification and oxidative stress have been associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity. We sought to determine whether these biomarkers were related to functional indices of stenosis severity among patients with stable coronary artery disease. We studied 197 consecutive patients with stable coronary artery disease due to single vessel disease. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) ≤ 0.80 was assessed as index of a functionally significant lesion. Serum levels of secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) activity, secretory phospholipase A2 type IIA (sPLA2-IIA), myeloperoxydase (MPO), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), and oxidized low-density lipoprotein (OxLDL) were assessed using commercially available assays. Patients with FFR > 0.8 had higher sPLA2 activity, sPLA2 IIA, and OxLDL levels than patients with FFR ≤ 0.8 (21.25 [16.03-27.28] vs 25.85 [20.58-34.63] U/mL, p < 0.001, 2.0 [1.5-3.4] vs 2.6 [2.0-3.4] ng/mL, p < 0.01; and 53.0 [36.0-71.0] vs 64.5 [50-89.25], p < 0.001 respectively). Patients with FFR > 0.80 had similar Lp-PLA2 and MPO levels versus those with FFR ≤ 0.8. sPLA2 activity, sPLA2 IIA significantly increased area under the curve over baseline characteristics to predict FFR ≤ 0.8 (0.67 to 0.77 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-0.85) p < 0.01 and 0.67 to 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.69-0.84) p < 0.01, respectively). Serum sPLA2 activity as well as sPLA2-IIA level is related to functional characteristics of coronary stenoses in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.

Detection of significant coronary artery disease by noninvasive anatomical and functional imaging.

BACKGROUND The choice of imaging techniques in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) varies between countries, regions, and hospitals. This prospective, multicenter, comparative effectiveness study was designed to assess the relative accuracy of commonly used imaging techniques for identifying patients with significant CAD. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 475 patients with stable chest pain and intermediate likelihood of CAD underwent coronary computed tomographic angiography and stress myocardial perfusion imaging by single photon emission computed tomography or positron emission tomography, and ventricular wall motion imaging by stress echocardiography or cardiac magnetic resonance. If ≥1 test was abnormal, patients underwent invasive coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined by invasive coronary angiography as >50% stenosis of the left main stem, >70% stenosis in a major coronary vessel, or 30% to 70% stenosis with fractional flow reserve ≤0.8. Significant CAD was present in 29% of patients. In a patient-based analysis, coronary computed tomographic angiography had the highest diagnostic accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve being 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-0.94), sensitivity being 91%, and specificity being 92%. Myocardial perfusion imaging had good diagnostic accuracy (area under the curve, 0.74; confidence interval, 0.69-0.78), sensitivity 74%, and specificity 73%. Wall motion imaging had similar accuracy (area under the curve, 0.70; confidence interval, 0.65-0.75) but lower sensitivity (49%, P<0.001) and higher specificity (92%, P<0.001). The diagnostic accuracy of myocardial perfusion imaging and wall motion imaging were lower than that of coronary computed tomographic angiography (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS In a multicenter European population of patients with stable chest pain and low prevalence of CAD, coronary computed tomographic angiography is more accurate than noninvasive functional testing for detecting significant CAD defined invasively. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00979199.