The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Bayesian Analysis for the Generalized Lognormal Distribution Applied to Failure Time Analysis

There are several versions of the lognormal distribution in the statistical literature, one is based in the exponential transformation of generalized normal distribution (GN). This paper presents the Bayesian analysis for the generalized lognormal distribution (logGN) considering independent non-informative Jeffreys distributions for the parameters as well as the procedure for implementing the Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior distributions of parameters. The results are used to analyze failure time models with right-censored and uncensored data. The proposed method is illustrated using actual failure time data of computers.

An Agent-Based Approach to Real-Time Patient Identification for Clinical Trials

Patient recruitment for clinical trials is expensive and has been a significant challenge, with many trials not achieving their recruitment goals. One method that shows promise for improving recruitment is the use of interactive prompts that inform practitioners of patient eligibility for clinical trials during consultation. This paper presents the ePCRN-IDEA recruitment system, which utilises an agent-based infrastructure to enable real-time recruitment of patients. In essence, whenever patients enter a clinic, the system compares their details against eligibility criteria, which define the requirements of active clinical trials. If a patient is found to be eligible, a prompt is raised to notify the user. In this way, it becomes possible for recruitment to take place quickly in a cost effective manner, whilst maintaining patient trust through the involvement of their own health care practitioner.

Rhetorical theory of public relations: opening the door to semiotic and pragmatism approaches

The 2001 Handbook of Public Relations edited by Robert Heath contains a prominent article advocating the use of rhetorical theory or ‘rhetorical enactment rational’ as a fruitful way of advancing theoretical understandings of public relations. In 2004 Heath and Dan Millar edited: Responding to Crisis: A Rhetorical Approach to Crisis Communication. These are the latest excursions into a perspective on public relations reflecting the extensive study of rhetoric in North America. Other examples are Public Relations Inquiry as Rhetorical Criticism (Elwood, 1995); Rhetorical and Critical Approaches to Public Relations (Toth and Heath, 1992); and a chapter Public Relations? No, Relations with Publics: A Rhetorical-Organisational Approach to Contemporary Corporate Communication (Cheney and Dionisopoulos, in Botan and Hazleton (Eds.) 1989).

The conventional notion of rhetoric is argumentation and persuasion stemming from the ancient Greek sophists, such as Aristotle, and from the Romans, particularly Cicero and Quintillion. Rhetoric became a fundamental plank of the trivium of ancient and medieval education: grammar, logic and rhetoric. Then in the 20th century Kenneth Burke, Stephen Toulmin and Chaim Perelman with Lucie Olbrechts-Tyteca extended Aristotle’s suggestion that: “Rhetoric is the counterpart of dialectic” Aristotle (trans. 1991). To use the rhetorical approach to argue that rational discourse cannot describe the world on its own. Instead living, enculturated human beings have to perceive ‘their’ truths. They take a perceptual ‘position’ on reason.

Public relations, is an industry for influencing perceptual ‘positions’. But the study of perception and attempts to influence perception cannot be claimed by rhetorical scholars alone. Semioticians and linguists who take the perspective of linguistic pragmatics also claim this field. This paper takes the example of ‘public relations’ as a focus for the confluence of rhetorical, semiotic and pragmatism approaches to the ‘problematic’ of understanding and truth.

Constraint-based conversion of fiction text to a time-based graphical representation

This paper presents a method for converting unrestricted fiction text into a time-based graphical form. Key concepts extracted from the text are used to formulate constraints describing the interaction of entities in a scene. The solution of these constraints over their respective time intervals provides the trajectories for these entities in a graphical representation.

Three types of entity are extracted from fiction books to describe the scene, namely Avatars, Areas and Objects. We present a novel method for modeling the temporal aspect of a fiction story using multiple time-line representations after which the information extracted regarding entities and time-lines is used to formulate constraints. A constraint solving technique based on interval arithmetic is used to ensure that the behaviour of the entities satisfies the constraints over multiple universally quantified time intervals. This approach is demonstrated by finding solutions to multiple time-based constraints, and represents a new contribution to the field of Text-to-Scene conversion. An example of the automatically produced graphical output is provided in support of our constraint-based conversion scheme.

The reflexive museum : opening the door to behind the scenes

In this paper I argue for a shift in conceptualising exhibitions: from products to be presented to processes to be revealed. I will explore how museum theory and practice are inextricably intertwined and can be brought into fruitful dialogue within an exhibition setting. By revealing the processes leading to the definition of categories and the interpretation of identities, and by giving ‘faces’ to decisions made, the ‘reflexive museum’ can become an embodiment of democracy, which does not silence controversies but gives diversity public voices. The ‘reflexive museum’ as I envisage it, by referring to Beck and Bonss’ ‘reflexive modernity’ (2001) is not only self-aware, but confronts, critiques, questions and ultimately transforms itself and invites the visitor to democratically participate in this process.

First, I sketch out recent academic musings on museological approaches. Then I present some examples of exhibitions in Germany in which these theories have been put into practice. I conclude by arguing for a symbiotic relationship between museum theory and practice, enabling the museum to realise its unique potential as a dynamic ‘playground’ located between scholarly thinking and the public.

The reflexive museum - opening the door to behind the scenes

In this paper I argue for a shift in conceptualising exhibitions: from products to be presented to processes to be revealed. I will explore how museum theory and praxis are inextricably intertwined and can be brought into fruitful dialogue within an exhibition setting. By revealing the processes leading to the definition of categories and the interpretation of identities, and by giving faces to decisions made, the ‘reflexive museum’ can become an embodiment of democracy, which does not silence controversies but gives diversity public voices. First, I sketch out recent academic musings on museological approaches. Then I present some examples of exhibitions in Germany in which these theories have been put into praxis. I conclude by arguing for a symbiotic relationship of museum theory and praxis enabling the museum to realise its unique potential as a dynamic ‘playground’ between academia and the public.