An investigation of the impact of various geographical scales for the specification of spatial dependence

Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach -- the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the SLA-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

The effect of the ecstasy 'come-down' on the diagnosis of ecstasy dependence

Background: The existence of an ecstasy dependence syndrome is controversial. We examined whether the acute after-effects of ecstasy use (i.e., the “come-down”) falsely lead to the identification of ecstasy withdrawal and the subsequent diagnosis of ecstasy dependence. Methods: The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Disorders: Research Version (SCID-RV) was administered to 214 Australian ecstasy users. Ecstasy withdrawal was operationalized in three contrasting ways: (i) as per DSM-IV criteria; (ii) as the expected after effects of ecstasy (a regular come-down); or (iii) as a substantially greater or longer come-down than on first use (intense come-down). These definitions were validated against frequency of ecstasy use, readiness to change and ability to resist the urge to use ecstasy. Confirmatory factor analyses were used to see how they aligned with the overall dependence syndrome. Results: Come-down symptoms increased the prevalence of withdrawal from 1% (DSM-IV criterion) to 11% (intense come-downs) and 75% (regular come-downs). Past year ecstasy dependence remained at 31% when including the DSM-IV withdrawal criteria and was 32% with intense come-downs, but increased to 45% with regular come-downs. Intense come-downs were associated with lower ability to resist ecstasy use and loaded positively on the dependence syndrome. Regular come-downs did not load positively on the ecstasy dependence syndrome and were not related to other indices of dependence. Conclusion: The acute after-effects of ecstasy should be excluded when assessing ecstasy withdrawal as they can lead to a false diagnosis of ecstasy dependence. Worsening of the ecstasy come-down may be a marker for dependence.

Automotive modal lock-in: The role of path dependence and large socio-economic regimes in market failure

This paper addresses less recognised factors which influence the diffusion of a particular technology. While an innovation’s attributes and performance are paramount, many fail because of external factors which favour an alternative. This paper, with theoretic input from diffusion, lock-in and path-dependency, presents a qualitative study of external factors that influenced the evolution of transportation in USA. This historical account reveals how one technology and its emergent systems become dominant while other choices are overridden by socio-political, economic and technological interests which include not just the manufacturing and service industries associated with the automobile but also government and market stakeholders. Termed here as a large socio-economic regime (LSER),its power in ensuring lock-in and continued path-dependency is shown to pass through three stages, weakening eventually as awareness improves. The study extends to transport trends in China, Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia and they all show the dominant role of an LSER. As transportation policy is increasingly accountable to address both demand and environmental concerns and innovators search for solutions, this paper presents important knowledge for innovators, marketers and policy makers for commercial and societal reasons, especially when negative externalities associated with an incumbent transportation technology may lead to market failure.

The Wzy O-antigen polymerase of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis O:2a has a dependence on the Wzz chain-length determinant for efficient polymerization

Lipopolysaccharide is a major immunogenic structure for the pathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, which contains the O-specific polysaccharide (OPS) that is presented on the cell surface. The OPS contains many repeats of the oligosaccharide O-unit and exhibits a preferred modal chain length that has been shown to be crucial for cell protection in Yersinia. It is well established that the Wzz protein determines the preferred chain length of the OPS, and in its absence, the polymerization of O units by the Wzy polymerase is uncontrolled. However, for Y. pseudotuberculosis, a wzz mutation has never been described. In this study, we examine the effect of Wzz loss in Y. pseudotuberculosis serotype O:2a and compare the lipopolysaccharide chain-length profile to that of Escherichia coli serotype O111. In the absence of Wzz, the lipopolysaccharides of the two species showed significant differences in Wzy polymerization. Yersinia pseudotuberculosis O:2a exhibited only OPS with very short chain lengths, which is atypical of wzz-mutant phenotypes that have been observed for other species. We hypothesise that the Wzy polymerase of Y. pseudotuberculosis O:2a has a unique default activity in the absence of the Wzz, revealing the requirement of Wzz to drive O-unit polymerization to greater lengths.

Dependence of light attenuation and backscattering on collagen concentration and chondrocyte density in agarose scaffolds

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has been applied for high resolution imaging of articular cartilage. However, the contribution of individual structural elements of cartilage on OCT signal has not been thoroughly studied. We hypothesize that both collagen and chondrocytes, essential structural components of cartilage, act as important light scatterers and that variation in their concentrations can be detected by OCT through changes in backscattering and attenuation. To evaluate this hypothesis, we established a controlled model system using agarose scaffolds embedded with variable collagen concentrations and chondrocyte densities. Using OCT, we measured the backscattering coefficient (µb) and total attenuation coefficient (µt) in these scaffolds. Along our hypothesis, light backscattering and attenuation in agarose were dependent on collagen concentration and chondrocyte density. Significant correlations were found between µt and chondrocyte density (ρ = 0.853, p < 0.001) and between µt and collagen concentration (ρ = 0.694, p < 0.001). µb correlated significantly with chondrocyte density (ρ = 0.504, p < 0.001) but not with collagen concentration (ρ = 0.103, p = 0.422) of the scaffold. Thus, quantitation of light backscattering and, especially, attenuation could be valuable when evaluating the integrity of soft tissues, such as articular cartilage with OCT.

Impulsivity-related cognition in alcohol dependence: Is it moderated by DRD2/ANKK1 gene status and executive dysfunction?

Perceived impaired control over alcohol use is a key cognitive construct in alcohol dependence that has been related prospectively to treatment outcome and may mediate the risk for problem drinking conveyed by impulsivity in non-dependent drinkers. The aim of the current study was to investigate whether perceived impaired control may mediate the association between impulsivity-related measures (derived from the Short-form Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised) and alcohol-dependence severity in alcohol-dependent drinkers. Furthermore, the extent to which this hypothesized relationship was moderated by genetic risk (Taq1A polymorphism in the DRD2/ANKK1 gene cluster) and verbal fluency as an indicator of executive cognitive ability (Controlled Oral Word Association Test) was also examined. A sample of 143 alcohol-dependent inpatients provided an extensive clinical history of their alcohol use, gave 10ml of blood for DNA analysis, and completed self-report measures relating to impulsivity, impaired control and severity of dependence. As hypothesized, perceived impaired control (partially) mediated the association between impulsivity-related measures and alcohol-dependence severity. This relationship was not moderated by the DRD2/ANKK1 polymorphism or verbal fluency. These results suggest that, in alcohol dependence, perceived impaired control is a cognitive mediator of impulsivity-related constructs that may be unaffected by DRD2/ANKK1 and neurocognitive processes underlying the retrieval of verbal information

The dependence of computed tomography number to relative electron density conversion on phantom geometry and its impact on planned dose

A computed tomography number to relative electron density (CT-RED) calibration is performed when commissioning a radiotherapy CT scanner by imaging a calibration phantom with inserts of specified RED and recording the CT number displayed. In this work, CT-RED calibrations were generated using several commercially available phantoms to observe the effect of phantom geometry on conversion to electron density and, ultimately, the dose calculation in a treatment planning system. Using an anthropomorphic phantom as a gold standard, the CT number of a material was found to depend strongly on the amount and type of scattering material surrounding the volume of interest, with the largest variation observed for the highest density material tested, cortical bone. Cortical bone gave a maximum CT number difference of 1,110 when a cylindrical insert of diameter 28 mm scanned free in air was compared to that in the form of a 30 × 30 cm2 slab. The effect of using each CT-RED calibration on planned dose to a patient was quantified using a commercially available treatment planning system. When all calibrations were compared to the anthropomorphic calibration, the largest percentage dose difference was 4.2 % which occurred when the CT-RED calibration curve was acquired with heterogeneity inserts removed from the phantom and scanned free in air. The maximum dose difference observed between two dedicated CT-RED phantoms was ±2.1 %. A phantom that is to be used for CT-RED calibrations must have sufficient water equivalent scattering material surrounding the heterogeneous objects that are to be used for calibration.

Angular dependence of the response of the nanoDot OSLD system for measurements at depth in clinical megavoltage beams

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to assess the angular dependence of a commercial optically stimulated luminescence dosimeter (OSLD) dosimetry system in MV x-ray beams at depths beyondd max and to find ways to mitigate this dependence for measurements in phantoms. Methods Two special holders were designed which allow a dosimeter to be rotated around the center of its sensitive volume. The dosimeter's sensitive volume is a disk, 5 mm in diameter and 0.2 mm thick. The first holder rotates the disk in the traditional way. It positions the disk perpendicular to the beam (gantry pointing to the floor) in the initial position (0°). When the holder is rotated the angle of the disk towards the beam increases until the disk is parallel with the beam (“edge on,” 90°). This is referred to as Setup 1. The second holder offers a new, alternative measurement position. It positions the disk parallel to the beam for all angles while rotating around its center (Setup 2). Measurements with five to ten dosimeters per point were carried out for 6 MV at 3 and 10 cm depth. Monte Carlo simulations using GEANT4 were performed to simulate the response of the active detector material for several angles. Detector and housing were simulated in detail based on microCT data and communications with the manufacturer. Various material compositions and an all-water geometry were considered. Results For the traditional Setup 1 the response of the OSLD dropped on average by 1.4% ± 0.7% (measurement) and 2.1% ± 0.3% (Monte Carlo simulation) for the 90° orientation compared to 0°. Monte Carlo simulations also showed a strong dependence of the effect on the composition of the sensitive layer. Assuming the layer to completely consist of the active material (Al2O3) results in a 7% drop in response for 90° compared to 0°. Assuming the layer to be completely water, results in a flat response within the simulation uncertainty of about 1%. For the new Setup 2, measurements and Monte Carlo simulations found the angular dependence of the dosimeter to be below 1% and within the measurement uncertainty. Conclusions The dosimeter system exhibits a small angular dependence of approximately 2% which needs to be considered for measurements involving other than normal incident beams angles. This applies in particular to clinicalin vivo measurements where the orientation of the dosimeter is dictated by clinical circumstances and cannot be optimized as otherwise suggested here. When measuring in a phantom, the proposed new setup should be considered. It changes the orientation of the dosimeter so that a coplanar beam arrangement always hits the disk shaped detector material from the thin side and thereby reduces the angular dependence of the response to within the measurement uncertainty of about 1%. This improvement makes the dosimeter more attractive for clinical measurements with multiple coplanar beams in phantoms, as the overall measurement uncertainty is reduced. Similarly, phantom based postal audits can transition from the traditional TLD to the more accurate and convenient OSLD.

Molecular Origin of the Intrinsic Bending Force for Helical Morphology Observed in Chiral Amphiphilic Assemblies: Concentration and Size Dependence

The formation of the helical morphology in monolayers and bilayers of chiral amphiphilic assemblies is believed to be driven at least partly by the interactions at the chiral centers of the amphiphiles. However, a detailed microscopic understanding of these interactions and their relation with the helix formation is still not clear. In this article a study of the molecular origin of the chirality-driven helix formation is presented by calculating, for the first time, the effective pair potential between a pair of chiral molecules. This effective potential depends on the relative sizes of the groups attached to the two chiral centers, on the orientation of the amphiphile molecules, and also on the distance between them. We find that for the mirror-image isomers (in the racemic modification) the minimum energy conformation is a nearly parallel alignment of the molecules. On the other hand, the same for a pair of molecules of one kind of enantiomer favors a tilt angle between them, thus leading to the formation of a helical morphology of the aggregate. The tilt angle is determined by the size of the groups attached to the chiral centers of the pair of molecules considered and in many cases predicted it to be close to 45 degrees. The present study, therefore, provides a molecular origin of the intrinsic bending force, suggested by Helfrich (J. Chem. Phys. 1986, 85, 1085-1087), to be responsible for the formation of helical structure. This effective potential may explain many of the existing experimental results, such as the size and the concentration dependence of the formation of helical morphology. It is further found that the elastic forces can significantly modify the pitch predicted by the chiral interactions alone and that the modified real pitch is close to the experimentally observed value. The present study is expected to provide a starting point for future microscopic studies.

Orientational relaxation in a random dipolar lattice: Wave-number and frequency dependence

In order to understand the role of translational modes in the orientational relaxation in dense dipolar liquids, we have carried out a computer ''experiment'' where a random dipolar lattice was generated by quenching only the translational motion of the molecules of an equilibrated dipolar liquid. The lattice so generated was orientationally disordered and positionally random. The detailed study of orientational relaxation in this random dipolar lattice revealed interesting differences from those of the corresponding dipolar liquid. In particular, we found that the relaxation of the collective orientational correlation functions at the intermediate wave numbers was markedly slower at the long times for the random lattice than that of the liquid. This verified the important role of the translational modes in this regime, as predicted recently by the molecular theories. The single-particle orientational correlation functions of the random lattice also decayed significantly slowly at long times, compared to those of the dipolar liquid.

Free Energy Gap Dependence of the Electron-Transfer Rate from the Inverted to the Normal Region

numerical study of the free energy gap (FEG) dependence of the electron-transfer rate in polar solvents is presented. This study is based on the generalized multidimensional hybrid model, which not only includes the solvent polarization and the molecular vibration modes, but also the biphasic polar response of the solvent. The free energy gap dependence is found to be sensitive to several factors, including the solvent relaxation rate, the electronic coupling between the surfaces, the frequency of the high-frequency quantum vibrational mode, and the magnitude of the solvent reorganization energy. It is shown that in some cases solvent relaxation can play an important role even in the Marcus normal regime. The minimal hybrid model involves a large number of parameters, giving rise to a diverse non-Marcus FEG behavior which is often determined collectively by these parameters. The model gives the linear free energy gap dependence of the logarithmic rate over a substantial range of FEG, spanning from the normal to the inverted regime. However, even for favorable values of the relevant parameters, a linear free energy gap dependence of the rate could be obtained only over a range of 5000-6000 cm(-1) (compared to the experimentally observed range of 10000 cm(-1) reported by Benniston et al.). The present work suggests several extensions/generalizations of the hybrid model which might be necessary to fully understand the observed free energy gap dependence.