Measuring the impact of observations on the predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a shallow-water model

In this paper sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on a ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). This particle filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows us to determine the predictive power — an entropy based measure — of the ensemble prediction. The proposed set-up makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a post-processing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one-year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow water model. We investigate the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering state of the KE. Optimal observations location correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the KE. During the contracted state of the KE it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast.

The effect of asymmetries on optimal hedge ratios

There is widespread evidence that the volatility of stock returns displays an asymmetric response to good and bad news. This article considers the impact of asymmetry on time-varying hedges for financial futures. An asymmetric model that allows forecasts of cash and futures return volatility to respond differently to positive and negative return innovations gives superior in-sample hedging performance. However, the simpler symmetric model is not inferior in a hold-out sample. A method for evaluating the models in a modern risk-management framework is presented, highlighting the importance of allowing optimal hedge ratios to be both time-varying and asymmetric.

How do different densities in a network affect the optimal location of service centers?

The p-median problem is often used to locate p service centers by minimizing their distances to a geographically distributed demand (n). The optimal locations are sensitive to geographical context such as road network and demand points especially when they are asymmetrically distributed in the plane. Most studies focus on evaluating performances of the p-median model when p and n vary. To our knowledge this is not a very well-studied problem when the road network is alternated especially when it is applied in a real world context. The aim in this study is to analyze how the optimal location solutions vary, using the p-median model, when the density in the road network is alternated. The investigation is conducted by the means of a case study in a region in Sweden with an asymmetrically distributed population (15,000 weighted demand points), Dalecarlia. To locate 5 to 50 service centers we use the national transport administrations official road network (NVDB). The road network consists of 1.5 million nodes. To find the optimal location we start with 500 candidate nodes in the network and increase the number of candidate nodes in steps up to 67,000. To find the optimal solution we use a simulated annealing algorithm with adaptive tuning of the temperature. The results show that there is a limited improvement in the optimal solutions when nodes in the road network increase and p is low. When p is high the improvements are larger. The results also show that choice of the best network depends on p. The larger p the larger density of the network is needed. 

Simulated impacts of climate change on current farming locations of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta's economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang's coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.

Monitoring corrosion of reinforced concrete beams in a chloride containing environment under different loading levels

Corrosion has significant adverse effects on the durability of reinforced concrete (RC) structures, especially those exposed to a marine environment and subjected to mechanical stress, such as bridges, jetties, piers and wharfs. Previous studies have been carried out to investigate the corrosion behaviour of steel rebar in various concrete structures, however, few studies have focused on the corrosion monitoring of RC structures that are subjected to both mechanical stress and environmental effects. This paper presents an exploratory study on the development of corrosion monitoring and detection techniques for RC structures under the combined effects of external loadings and corrosive media. Four RC beams were tested in 3% NaCl solutions under different levels of point loads. Corrosion processes occurring on steel bars under different loads and under alternative wetting - drying cycle conditions were monitored. Electrochemical and microscopic methods were utilised to measure corrosion potentials of steel bars; to monitor galvanic currents flowing between different steel bars in each beam; and to observe corrosion patterns, respectively. The results indicated that steel corrosion in RC beams was affected by local stress. The point load caused the increase of galvanic currents, corrosion rates and corrosion areas. Pitting corrosion was found to be the main form of corrosion on the surface of the steel bars for most of the beams, probably due to the local concentration of chloride ions. In addition, visual observation of the samples confirmed that the localities of corrosion were related to the locations of steel bars in beams. It was also demonstrated that electrochemical devices are useful for the detection of RC beam corrosion.

What is the optimal number of implants for removable reconstructions? A systematic review on implant-supported overdentures

The aim of this systematic review was to assess the optimal number of implants for removable reconstructions.

Privacy-Preserving Optimal Meeting Location Determination on Mobile Devices

Equipped with state-of-the-art smartphones and mobile devices, today's highly interconnected urban population is increasingly dependent on these gadgets to organize and plan their daily lives. These applications often rely on current (or preferred) locations of individual users or a group of users to provide the desired service, which jeopardizes their privacy; users do not necessarily want to reveal their current (or preferred) locations to the service provider or to other, possibly untrusted, users. In this paper, we propose privacy-preserving algorithms for determining an optimal meeting location for a group of users. We perform a thorough privacy evaluation by formally quantifying privacy-loss of the proposed approaches. In order to study the performance of our algorithms in a real deployment, we implement and test their execution efficiency on Nokia smartphones. By means of a targeted user-study, we attempt to get an insight into the privacy-awareness of users in location-based services and the usability of the proposed solutions.

Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Effect of the Wake of the Transducer Supports on the Ultrasonic Anemometer Measurements

The wake produced by the structural supports of the ultrasonic anemometers (UAs)causes distortions in the velocity field in the vicinity of the sonic path. These distortions are measured by the UA, inducing errors in the determination of the mean velocity, turbulence intensity, spectrum, etc.; basic parameters to determine the effect of wind on structures. Additionally, these distortions can lead to indefinition in the calibration function of the sensors (Cuerva et al., 2004). Several wind tunnel tests have been dedicated to obtaining experimental data, from which have been developed fit models to describe and to correct these distortions (Kaimal, 1978 and Wyngaard, 1985). This work explores the effect of a vortex wake generated by the supports of an UA, on the measurement of wind speed done by this instrument. To do this, the Von Karman¿s vortex street potential model is combined with the mathematical model of the measuring process carried out by UAs developed by Franchini et al. (2007). The obtained results are the correction functions of the measured wind velocity, which depends on the geometry of the sonic anemometer and aerodynamic conditions. These results have been validated with the ones obtained in a wind tunnel test done on a single path UA, especially developed for research. The supports of this UA have been modified in order to reproduce the conditions of the theoretical model. Good agreements between experimental and theoretical results have been found.