898 resultados para Infectious Disease Modelling


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Objective. To identify current outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy practice patterns and complications. Methods. We administered an 11-question survey to adult infectious disease physicians participating in the Emerging Infections Network (EIN), a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-sponsored sentinel event surveillance network in North America. The survey was distributed electronically or via facsimile in November and December 2012. Respondent demographic characteristics were obtained from EIN enrollment data. Results. Overall, 555 (44.6%) of EIN members responded to the survey, with 450 (81%) indicating that they treated 1 or more patients with outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) during an average month. Infectious diseases consultation was reported to be required for a patient to be discharged with OPAT by 99 respondents (22%). Inpatient (282 [63%] of 449) and outpatient (232 [52%] of 449) infectious diseases physicians were frequently identified as being responsible for monitoring laboratory results. Only 26% (118 of 448) had dedicated OPAT teams at their clinical site. Few infectious diseases physicians have systems to track errors, adverse events, or "near misses" associated with OPAT (97 [22%] of 449). OPAT-associated complications were perceived to be rare. Among respondents, 80% reported line occlusion or clotting as the most common complication (occurring in 6% of patients or more), followed by nephrotoxicity and rash (each reported by 61%). Weekly laboratory monitoring of patients who received vancomycin was reported by 77% of respondents (343 of 445), whereas 19% of respondents (84 of 445) reported twice weekly laboratory monitoring for these patients. Conclusions. Although use of OPAT is common, there is significant variation in practice patterns. More uniform OPAT practices may enhance patient safety.

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Indigent and congregate-living populations have high susceptibilities for disease and pose a higher risk for disease transmission to family, friends and to persons providing services to these populations. The adoption of basic infection control, personal hygiene, safe food handling and simple engineering practices will reduce the risk of infectious disease transmission to, from and among indigent and congregate-living populations. ^ The provision of social services, health promotion activities and other support services to indigent and congregate-living populations is an important aspect of many public health-related governmental, community-based and other medical care provider agencies. ^ In the interest of protecting the health of indigent and congregate-living populations, of personnel from organizations providing services to these populations and of the general community, an educational intervention is warranted to prevent the spread of blood-borne, air-borne, food-borne and close contact-borne infectious diseases. ^ An educational presentation was provided to staff from a community-based organization specializing in providing housing, health education, foodstuffs and meals and support services to disabled, low-income, homeless and HIV-infected individuals. The educational presentation delivered general best practices and standard guidelines. A pre and post test were administered to determine and measure knowledge pertinent to controlling the spread of infectious diseases between and among homeless shelter-living clients and between clients and the organization's staff. ^ Comparing pre-test and post-test results revealed areas of knowledge currently held by staff and other areas that staff would benefit from additional educational seminars and training. ^

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A systematic review of the literature yielded 10 articles that explored the interaction between race/ethnicity, citizenship, socioeconomic status, and health literacy domains with respect to preparedness agenda development. Current emerging infectious disease (EID) preparedness plans do not adequately address the needs of vulnerable populations for the events before, during, and after an epidemic. Central to the disadvantage of most vulnerable populations are various health disparity domains that persist as barriers for individuals and communities alike to engage in preparedness efforts. Seven out of the ten articles discussed the importance of including health disparity domains in preparedness policy. Two proposed frameworks for an emerging infectious disease framework that considers health disparities are presented in this study. ^ Framework 1 is beneficial for the evaluation phase after a disaster has struck and preparedness efforts have been initiated. It considers several existing disparities and remediation strategies at the individual, community, and system levels to reach adequate restructuring of preparedness aims. Framework 2 serves as a "how to" carry out preparedness during a disaster event. It is a revision of a framework proposed by Blumenshine et al. (2008) and explores those characteristics central to pandemic preparedness plan development/deployment. Although two frameworks were devised, no one framework will adequately address the needs of vulnerable populations during an epidemic. However, the two frameworks propose to demonstrate the inclusion of important health disparity domains in preparedness plan development. ^ The National Consensus Panel for Emergency Preparedness and Cultural Diversity has released guidelines that are considered the leading strategies necessary to reorient preparedness infrastructure. In order for vulnerable populations to benefit from ample protection during a disaster, inclusion of health disparity domains in the development phases of preparedness must occur prior to full deployment in communities. Although "promising practices" and other methods at the frontier of exploring these multidimensional constraints has entered the research arena, new studies on adequate preparedness merit further investigation and support.^

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Although many new diseases have emerged within the past 2 decades [Cohen, M. L. (1998) Brit. Med. Bull. 54, 523–532], attributing low numbers of animal hosts to the existence of even a new pathogen is problematic. This is because very rarely does one have data on host abundance before and after the epizootic as well as detailed descriptions of pathogen prevalence [Dobson, A. P. & Hudson, P. J. (1985) in Ecology of Infectious Diseases in Natural Populations, eds. Grenfell, B. T. & Dobson, A. P. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.), pp. 52–89]. Month by month we tracked the spread of the epizootic of an apparently novel strain of a widespread poultry pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, through a previously unknown host, the house finch, whose abundance has been monitored over past decades. Here we are able to demonstrate a causal relationship between high disease prevalence and declining house finch abundance throughout the eastern half of North America because the epizootic reached different parts of the house finch range at different times. Three years after the epizootic arrived, house finch abundance stabilized at similar levels, although house finch abundance had been high and stable in some areas but low and rapidly increasing in others. This result, not previously documented in wild populations, is as expected from theory if transmission of the disease was density dependent.

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It has long been known that cholera outbreaks can be initiated when Vibrio cholerae, the bacterium that causes cholera, is present in drinking water in sufficient numbers to constitute an infective dose, if ingested by humans. Outbreaks associated with drinking or bathing in unpurified river or brackish water may directly or indirectly depend on such conditions as water temperature, nutrient concentration, and plankton production that may be favorable for growth and reproduction of the bacterium. Although these environmental parameters have routinely been measured by using water samples collected aboard research ships, the available data sets are sparse and infrequent. Furthermore, shipboard data acquisition is both expensive and time-consuming. Interpolation to regional scales can also be problematic. Although the bacterium, V. cholerae, cannot be sensed directly, remotely sensed data can be used to infer its presence. In the study reported here, satellite data were used to monitor the timing and spread of cholera. Public domain remote sensing data for the Bay of Bengal were compared directly with cholera case data collected in Bangladesh from 1992–1995. The remote sensing data included sea surface temperature and sea surface height. It was discovered that sea surface temperature shows an annual cycle similar to the cholera case data. Sea surface height may be an indicator of incursion of plankton-laden water inland, e.g., tidal rivers, because it was also found to be correlated with cholera outbreaks. The extensive studies accomplished during the past 25 years, confirming the hypothesis that V. cholerae is autochthonous to the aquatic environment and is a commensal of zooplankton, i.e., copepods, when combined with the findings of the satellite data analyses, provide strong evidence that cholera epidemics are climate-linked.

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Title from cover title.

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The thesis contains chapters that elucidate questions with regards to wildlife infectious disease dynamics - avian influenza in particular - and how those dynamics are affected by seasonality and avian migration.

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Seasonal changes in environmental drivers - such as temperature, rainfall, and resource availability - have the potential to shape infection dynamics through their reverberating effects on biological processes including host abundance and susceptibility to infection. However, seasonality varies geographically. We therefore expect marked differences in infection dynamics between regions with different seasonal patterns. By pairing extensive Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) surveillance data - 65 358 individual bird samples from 12 species of dabbling ducks sampled at 174 locations across North America - with quantification of seasonality using remote sensed data indicative for primary productivity (normalised differenced vegetation index, NDVI), we provide evidence that seasonal dynamics influence infection dynamics across a continent. More pronounced epidemics were seen to occur in regions experiencing a higher degree of seasonality, and epidemics of lower amplitude and longer duration occurred in regions with a more protracted and lower seasonal amplitude. These results demonstrate the potential importance of geographic variation in seasonality for explaining geographic variation in the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife.

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This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.

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Mechanistic determinants of bacterial growth, death, and spread within mammalian hosts cannot be fully resolved studying a single bacterial population. They are also currently poorly understood. Here, we report on the application of sophisticated experimental approaches to map spatiotemporal population dynamics of bacteria during an infection. We analyzed heterogeneous traits of simultaneous infections with tagged Salmonella enterica populations (wild-type isogenic tagged strains [WITS]) in wild-type and gene-targeted mice. WITS are phenotypically identical but can be distinguished and enumerated by quantitative PCR, making it possible, using probabilistic models, to estimate bacterial death rate based on the disappearance of strains through time. This multidisciplinary approach allowed us to establish the timing, relative occurrence, and immune control of key infection parameters in a true host-pathogen combination. Our analyses support a model in which shortly after infection, concomitant death and rapid bacterial replication lead to the establishment of independent bacterial subpopulations in different organs, a process controlled by host antimicrobial mechanisms. Later, decreased microbial mortality leads to an exponential increase in the number of bacteria that spread locally, with subsequent mixing of bacteria between organs via bacteraemia and further stochastic selection. This approach provides us with an unprecedented outlook on the pathogenesis of S. enterica infections, illustrating the complex spatial and stochastic effects that drive an infectious disease. The application of the novel method that we present in appropriate and diverse host-pathogen combinations, together with modelling of the data that result, will facilitate a comprehensive view of the spatial and stochastic nature of within-host dynamics. © 2008 Grant et al.