Correlation between the area of increased autofluorescence surrounding geographic atrophy and disease progression in patients with AMD

PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that the extension of areas with increased fundus autofluorescence (FAF) outside atrophic patches correlates with the rate of spread of geographic atrophy (GA) over time in eyes with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: The database of the multicenter longitudinal natural history Fundus Autofluorescence in AMD (FAM) Study was reviewed for patients with GA recruited through the end of August 2003, with follow-up examinations within at least 1 year. Only eyes with sufficient image quality and with diffuse patterns of increased FAF surrounding atrophy were chosen. In standardized digital FAF images (excitation, 488 nm; emission, >500 nm), total size and spread of GA was measured. The convex hull (CH) of increased FAF as the minimum polygon encompassing the entire area of increased FAF surrounding the central atrophic patches was quantified at baseline. Statistical analysis was performed with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). RESULTS: Thirty-nine eyes of 32 patients were included (median age, 75.0 years; interquartile range [IQR], 67.8-78.9); median follow-up, 1.87 years; IQR, 1.43-3.37). At baseline, the median total size of atrophy was 7.04 mm2 (IQR, 4.20-9.88). The median size of the CH was 21.47 mm2 (IQR, 15.19-28.26). The median rate of GA progression was 1.72 mm2 per year (IQR, 1.10-2.83). The area of increased FAF around the atrophy (difference between the CH and the total GA size at baseline) showed a positive correlation with GA enlargement over time (rho=0.60; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: FAF characteristics that are not identified by fundus photography or fluorescein angiography may serve as a prognostic determinant in advanced atrophic AMD. As the FAF signal originates from lipofuscin (LF) in postmitotic RPE cells and since increased FAF indicates excessive LF accumulation, these findings would underscore the pathophysiological role of RPE-LF in AMD pathogenesis.

Cytokine activation and disease progression in patients with stable moderate chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND: Activation of the cytokine and the complement system is associated with disease progression in severe congestive heart failure (CHF). Magnitude and prognostic relevance of cytokine and complement activation remain uncertain in patients with moderate CHF. OBJECTIVES: Measurement of cytokine and complement activation in patients with moderate CHF and testing whether C-reactive protein (CRP) can serve as a surrogate marker of their activation, adding independent prognostic information when co-measured with B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). METHODS: The 118 study participants were separated into three groups based on pre-determined CRP and BNP levels: Group I (n = 27; CRP > 5 mg/liter, BNP > or = 200 pg/ml); Group II (n = 46; CRP < or = 5 mg/liter, BNP > or = 200 pg/ml); and Group III (n = 45; CRP < or = 5 mg/liter, BNP < 200 pg/ml). RESULTS: Mortality was high in Group I (30%; log-rank p < 0.001) but low in Groups II and III (2% and 4%, respectively; log rank, p = 0.7). No differences were observed for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) between Groups I and II (31 +/- 16 vs 32 +/- 14% and 66 +/- 16 vs 65 +/- 11 mm, respectively), whereas in Group III LVEF was higher (42 +/- 17%, p = 0.002) with smaller LVEDD (57 +/- 13 mm, p = 0.012). Cytokine sCD14 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha levels were not different between the three groups. However, interleukin-6 levels (9.75 +/- 8.17 pg/ml, p = 0.001) and the terminal complement complex C5b-9 (109.9 +/- 68 ng/ml; p = 0.04) were elevated in Group I, both correlating with CRP (interleukin-6: r = 0.5, p < 0.001; C5b-9: r = 0.41, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CRP may be used as a surrogate parameter for interleukin-6 and complement activation in moderate CHF. CRP in combination with BNP identifies a high-risk group with a tendency for poor outcome not discriminated by cardiac function.

HIV-1 coreceptor usage and CXCR4-specific viral load predict clinical disease progression during combination antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: Although combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dramatically reduces rates of AIDS and death, a minority of patients experience clinical disease progression during treatment. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether detection of CXCR4(X4)-specific strains or quantification of X4-specific HIV-1 load predict clinical outcome. METHODS: From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 96 participants who initiated cART yet subsequently progressed to AIDS or death were compared with 84 contemporaneous, treated nonprogressors. A sensitive heteroduplex tracking assay was developed to quantify plasma X4 and CCR5 variants and resolve HIV-1 load into coreceptor-specific components. Measurements were analyzed as cofactors of progression in multivariable Cox models adjusted for concurrent CD4 cell count and total viral load, applying inverse probability weights to adjust for sampling bias. RESULTS: Patients with X4 variants at baseline displayed reduced CD4 cell responses compared with those without X4 strains (40 versus 82 cells/microl; P = 0.012). The adjusted multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for clinical progression was 4.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-10.0] for those demonstrating X4 strains at baseline. The X4-specific HIV-1 load was a similarly independent predictor, with HR values of 3.7 (95% CI, 1.2-11.3) and 5.9 (95% CI, 2.2-15.0) for baseline loads of 2.2-4.3 and > 4.3 log10 copies/ml, respectively, compared with < 2.2 log10 copies/ml. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-1 coreceptor usage and X4-specific viral loads strongly predicted disease progression during cART, independent of and in addition to CD4 cell count or total viral load. Detection and quantification of X4 strains promise to be clinically useful biomarkers to guide patient management and study HIV-1 pathogenesis.

Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

Periodontal disease progression in subjects with orofacial clefts over a 25-year follow-up period

AIMS: To assess rates of periodontal disease progression in subjects with cleft lip, alveolus and palate (CLAP) over a 25-year period without regular maintenance care in a specialist setting and to compare those with those of subjects without alveolar clefts, i.e. cleft lip (CL) or cleft palate (CP). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ten subjects with CLAP and 10 subjects with CL/CP were examined in 1979, 1987, 1993 and 2004. Probing pocket depth (PPD), clinical attachment level (CAL), bleeding on probing (BoP) and plaque control record (PCR) scores were recorded in all 20 subjects. RESULTS: High plaque and BoP scores were recorded at all examinations in both groups. Over 25 years, a statistically significant loss of mean full-mouth CAL of 1.52 +/- 0.12 mm (SD) and 1.66 +/- 0.15 mm occurred in the CLAP and CL/CP group respectively (p<0.05). A statistically significant increase (p<0.05) in mean full-mouth PPD of 0.35 +/- 0.12 mm was observed in the CL/CP group, whereas only a trend for a mean full-mouth increase in PPD of 0.09 +/- 0.11 mm was observed in the CLAP group. In subjects with CLAP, a statistically significant increase (p<0.05) in PPD of 0.92 +/- 1.13 mm at cleft sites was observed compared with that of 0.17 +/- 0.76 mm at control sites. With respect to CAL, the loss at the corresponding sites amounted to 2.71 +/- 1.46 and to 2.27 +/- 1.62 mm, respectively (p=0.36). CONCLUSIONS: When stringent and well-defined supportive periodontal therapy was not provided, subjects with orofacial clefts were at high risk for periodontal disease progression. Over 25 years, alveolar cleft sites tended to have more periodontal tissue destruction compared with control sites.

Programmed death 1 signaling on chronic myeloid leukemia-specific T cells results in T-cell exhaustion and disease progression

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a malignant myeloproliferative disease with a characteristic chronic phase (cp) of several years before progression to blast crisis (bc). The immune system may contribute to disease control in CML. We analyzed leukemia-specific immune responses in cpCML and bcCML in a retroviral-induced murine CML model. In the presence of cpCML and bcCML expressing the glycoprotein of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus as a model leukemia antigen, leukemia-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) became exhausted. They maintained only limited cytotoxic activity, and did not produce interferon-gamma or tumor necrosis factor-alpha or expand after restimulation. CML-specific CTLs were characterized by high expression of programmed death 1 (PD-1), whereas CML cells expressed PD-ligand 1 (PD-L1). Blocking the PD-1/PD-L1 interaction by generating bcCML in PD-1-deficient mice or by repetitive administration of alphaPD-L1 antibody prolonged survival. In addition, we found that PD-1 is up-regulated on CD8(+) T cells from CML patients. Taken together, our results suggest that blocking the PD-1/PD-L1 interaction may restore the function of CML-specific CTLs and may represent a novel therapeutic approach for CML.

Differences in Time to Disease Progression Do Not Predict for Cancer-specific Survival in Patients Receiving Immediate or Deferred Androgen-deprivation Therapy for Prostate Cancer: Final Results of EORTC Randomized Trial 30891 with 12 Years of Follow-up

BACKGROUND Trials assessing the benefit of immediate androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) for treating prostate cancer (PCa) have often done so based on differences in detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse or metastatic disease rates at a specific time after randomization. OBJECTIVE Based on the long-term results of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial 30891, we questioned if differences in time to progression predict for survival differences. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS EORTC trial 30891 compared immediate ADT (n=492) with orchiectomy or luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analog with deferred ADT (n=493) initiated upon symptomatic disease progression or life-threatening complications in randomly assigned T0-4 N0-2 M0 PCa patients. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Time to first objective progression (documented metastases, ureteric obstruction, not PSA rise) and time to objective castration-resistant progressive disease were compared as well as PCa mortality and overall survival. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS After a median of 12.8 yr, 769 of the 985 patients had died (78%), 269 of PCa (27%). For patients receiving deferred ADT, the overall treatment time was 31% of that for patients on immediate ADT. Deferred ADT was significantly worse than immediate ADT for time to first objective disease progression (p<0.0001; 10-yr progression rates 42% vs 30%). However, time to objective castration-resistant disease after deferred ADT did not differ significantly (p=0.42) from that after immediate ADT. In addition, PCa mortality did not differ significantly, except in patients with aggressive PCa resulting in death within 3-5 yr after diagnosis. Deferred ADT was inferior to immediate ADT in terms of overall survival (hazard ratio: 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.39; p [noninferiority]=0.72, p [difference] = 0.0085). CONCLUSIONS This study shows that if hormonal manipulation is used at different times during the disease course, differences in time to first disease progression cannot predict differences in disease-specific survival. A deferred ADT policy may substantially reduce the time on treatment, but it is not suitable for patients with rapidly progressing disease.

Hierarchical accumulation of RyR post-translational modifications drives disease progression in dystrophic cardiomyopathy

AIMS:Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a muscle disease with serious cardiac complications. Changes in Ca(2+) homeostasis and oxidative stress were recently associated with cardiac deterioration, but the cellular pathophysiological mechanisms remain elusive. We investigated whether the activity of ryanodine receptor (RyR) Ca(2+) release channels is affected, whether changes in function are cause or consequence and which post-translational modifications drive disease progression. METHODS AND RESULTS:Electrophysiological, imaging, and biochemical techniques were used to study RyRs in cardiomyocytes from mdx mice, an animal model of DMD. Young mdx mice show no changes in cardiac performance, but do so after ∼8 months. Nevertheless, myocytes from mdx pups exhibited exaggerated Ca(2+) responses to mechanical stress and 'hypersensitive' excitation-contraction coupling, hallmarks of increased RyR Ca(2+) sensitivity. Both were normalized by antioxidants, inhibitors of NAD(P)H oxidase and CaMKII, but not by NO synthases and PKA antagonists. Sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) load and leak were unchanged in young mdx mice. However, by the age of 4-5 months and in senescence, leak was increased and load was reduced, indicating disease progression. By this age, all pharmacological interventions listed above normalized Ca(2+) signals and corrected changes in ECC, Ca(2+) load, and leak. CONCLUSION:Our findings suggest that increased RyR Ca(2+) sensitivity precedes and presumably drives the progression of dystrophic cardiomyopathy, with oxidative stress initiating its development. RyR oxidation followed by phosphorylation, first by CaMKII and later by PKA, synergistically contributes to cardiac deterioration.

Highly pathogenic adapted HIV-1 strains limit host immunity and dictate rapid disease progression.

OBJECTIVE: The study of HIV-1 rapid progressors has been limited to specific case reports. Nevertheless, identification and characterization of the viral and host factors involved in rapid progression are crucial when attempting to uncover the correlates of rapid disease outcome. DESIGN: We carried out comparative functional analyses in rapid progressors (n = 46) and standard progressors (n = 46) early after HIV-1 seroconversion (≤1 year). The viral traits tested were viral replicative capacity, co-receptor usage, and genomic variation. Host CD8 T-cell responses, humoral activity, and HLA immunogenetic markers were also determined. RESULTS: Our data demonstrate an unusual convergence of highly pathogenic HIV-1 strains in rapid progressors. Compared with standard progressors, rapid progressor viral strains show higher in-vitro replicative capacity (81.5 vs. 67.9%; P = 0.025) and greater X4/DM co-receptor usage (26.3 vs. 2.8%; P = 0.006) in early infection. Limited or absent functional HIV-1 CD8 T-cell responses and neutralizing activity were measured in rapid progressors. Moreover, the increase in common HLA allele-restricted CD8 T-cell escape mutations in rapid progressors acts as a signature of uncontrolled HIV-1 replication and early impairment of adaptive cellular responses. CONCLUSION: Our data support a dominant role for viral factors in rapid progressors. Robust HIV-1 replication and intrinsic viral properties limit host adaptive immune responses, thus driving rapid disease progression.

Disease progression and recurrence in women treated for vulvovaginal intraepithelial neoplasia

OBJECTIVE The malignant potential of intraepithelial neoplasia of the vulva and vagina after treatment is not well defined. Our objective was to examine risk factors for recurrence and invasive disease. METHODS Four hundred sixty-four women with biopsy proven high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia of the vulva and vagina were identified in the electronic databases of four colposcopy clinics. Inclusion criteria were a follow-up of more than one year, no history of invasive cancer and no invasive cancer within the first year after initial treatment. We investigated the potential factors associated with recurrence and progression using a logistic regression analysis to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Of the 411 eligible patients, 123 patients (29.9%) recurred later than one year after initial treatment and 24 patients (5.8%) progressed to invasive disease. According to multivariate analyses, the risk factors associated with recurrence were multifocality (OR, 3.33; 95% CI, 2.02 to 5.51), immunosuppression (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.09 to 5.81), excision as initial treatment (vs. laser evaporation; OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.91) and smoking (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.55). Risk factors for progression to invasive disease were immunosuppression (OR, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.30 to 12.25), multifocality (OR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.25 to 7.43) and smoking (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.16 to 7.60), but not treatment modality. CONCLUSION Laser evaporation combined with extensive biopsy is at least as efficacious as initial treatment of intraepithelial neoplasia with excision. Smoking is a risk factor for both recurrence and progression to invasive disease. Hence, smoking cessation should be advised and maintaining a long follow-up period due to late relapses is necessary.

Crevicular fluid biomarkers and periodontal disease progression.

AIM Assess the ability of a panel of gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) biomarkers as predictors of periodontal disease progression (PDP). MATERIALS AND METHODS In this study, 100 individuals participated in a 12-month longitudinal investigation and were categorized into four groups according to their periodontal status. GCF, clinical parameters and saliva were collected bi-monthly. Subgingival plaque and serum were collected bi-annually. For 6 months, no periodontal treatment was provided. At 6 months, patients received periodontal therapy and continued participation from 6 to 12 months. GCF samples were analysed by ELISA for MMP-8, MMP-9, Osteoprotegerin, C-reactive Protein and IL-1β. Differences in median levels of GCF biomarkers were compared between stable and progressing participants using Wilcoxon Rank Sum test (p = 0.05). Clustering algorithm was used to evaluate the ability of oral biomarkers to classify patients as either stable or progressing. RESULTS Eighty-three individuals completed the 6-month monitoring phase. With the exception of GCF C-reactive protein, all biomarkers were significantly higher in the PDP group compared to stable patients. Clustering analysis showed highest sensitivity levels when biofilm pathogens and GCF biomarkers were combined with clinical measures, 74% (95% CI = 61, 86). CONCLUSIONS Signature of GCF fluid-derived biomarkers combined with pathogens and clinical measures provides a sensitive measure for discrimination of PDP (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00277745).

gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

The association between in-stent neoatherosclerosis and native coronary artery disease progression: a long-term angiographic and optical coherence tomography cohort study.

AIMS The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between in-stent neoatherosclerosis (NA) and native atherosclerosis progression of untreated coronary segments. METHODS AND RESULTS In-stent NA was assessed by optical coherence tomography (OCT) among patients included in the SIRTAX-LATE OCT study 5 years after drug-eluting stent (DES) (sirolimus-eluting and paclitaxel-eluting stents) implantation. Neoatherosclerosis was defined as the presence of fibroatheroma or fibrocalcific plaque within the neointima of stented segments with a longitudinal extension >1.0 mm. Atherosclerosis progression in untreated native coronary segments was evaluated by serial quantitative coronary angiography (QCA). The change in minimal lumen diameter (MLD) was serially assessed within matched segments at baseline and 5-year angiographic follow-up. The key clinical endpoint was non-target lesion (non-TL) revascularization throughout 5 years. A total of 88 patients with 88 lesions were available for OCT analysis 5 years after DES implantation. In-stent NA was observed in 16% of lesions with the majority of plaques being fibroatheromas (11.4%) followed by fibrocalcific plaques (5.7%). A total of 704 non-TL segments were serially evaluated by QCA. Between baseline and 5-year follow-up, the reduction in MLD was significantly more pronounced in patients with NA (-0.25 mm, 95% CI -0.36 to -0.17 mm) when compared with patients without NA (-0.13 mm, 95% CI -0.17 to -0.10 mm, P = 0.002). Similarly, non-TL revascularization was more frequent in patients with NA (78.6%) when compared with patients without NA (44.6%, P = 0.028) throughout 5 years. CONCLUSIONS In-stent NA is more common among patients with angiographic and clinical evidence of native atherosclerosis progression suggesting similar pathophysiological mechanisms.SIRTAX trial is registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00617084.

Tumor-induced inflammation alters neutrophil phenotype and disease progression

Neutrophils are essential to combat infectious agents but contribute to collateral inflammatory damage. Likewise, neutrophils can kill cancer cells and have been shown to promote malignant growth and metastasis through immunosuppressive functions. Two articles in a recent issue of Nature reveal new mechanisms by which tumors induce changes in neutrophil phenotype through production of inflammatory cytokines. Although the two studies report different outcomes on the effects of neutrophils on tumor growth and metastasis, they delineate novel molecular pathways influencing neutrophil phenotype that may provide new approaches to harnessing neutrophil functions in the treatment of cancer.