Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Towards improving mission execution for autonomous gliders with an ocean model and Kalman filter

In this paper, we examine the use of a Kalman filter to aid in the mission planning process for autonomous gliders. Given a set of waypoints defining the planned mission and a prediction of the ocean currents from a regional ocean model, we present an approach to determine the best, constant, time interval at which the glider should surface to maintain a prescribed tracking error, and minimizing time on the ocean surface. We assume basic parameters for the execution of a given mission, and provide the results of the Kalman filter mission planning approach. These results are compared with previous executions of the given mission scenario.

Statistical distribution of depth-integrated local horizontal momentum for second-order random ocean waves in finite water depth

Based on the second-order random wave solutions of water wave equations in finite water depth, statistical distributions of the depth- integrated local horizontal momentum components are derived by use of the characteristic function expansion method. The parameters involved in the distributions can be all determined by the water depth and the wave-number spectrum of ocean waves. As an illustrative example, a fully developed wind-generated sea is considered and the parameters are calculated for typical wind speeds and water depths by means of the Donelan and Pierson spectrum. The effects of nonlinearity and water depth on the distributions are also investigated.

Animal-borne sensors successfully capture the real-time thermal properties of ocean basins

Climate change is perhaps the most pressing and urgent environmental issue facing the world today. However our ability to predict and quantify the consequences of this change is severely limited by the paucity of in situ oceanographic measurements. Marine animals equipped with sophisticated oceanographic data loggers to study their behavior offer one solution to this problem because marine animals range widely across the world's ocean basins and visit remote and often inaccessible locations. However, unlike the information being collected from conventional oceanographic sensing equipment, which has been validated, the data collected from instruments deployed on marine animals over long periods has not. This is the first long-term study to validate in situ oceanographic data collected by animal oceanographers. We compared the ocean temperatures collected by leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic Ocean with the ARGO network of ocean floats and could find no systematic errors that could be ascribed to sensor instability. Animal-borne sensors allowed water temperature to be monitored across a range of depths, over entire ocean basins, and, importantly, over long periods and so will play a key role in assessing global climate change through improved monitoring of global temperatures. This finding is especially pertinent given recent international calls for the development and implementation of a comprehensive Earth observation system ( see http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/documents.asp?s=review) that includes the use of novel techniques for monitoring and understanding ocean and climate interactions to address strategic environmental and societal needs.

Present and recommended U.S. Government research in seafloor engineering.

Contract no. 03-7-038-739 (1F).

Guide to information on research in marine science and engineering /

Mode of access: Internet.

A Lagrangian approach to nonlinear modeling of anti-roll tanks

This paper presents two novel nonlinear models of u-shaped anti-roll tanks for ships, and their linearizations. In addition, a third simplified nonlinear model is presented. The models are derived using Lagrangian mechanics. This formulation not only simplifies the modeling process, but also allows one to obtain models that satisfy energy-related physical properties. The proposed nonlinear models and their linearizations are validated using model-scale experimental data. Unlike other models in the literature, the nonlinear models in this paper are valid for large roll amplitudes. Even at moderate roll angles, the nonlinear models have three orders of magnitude lower mean square error relative to experimental data than the linear models.

Practical aspects of frequency-domain identification of dynamic models of marine structures from hydrodynamic data

The motion response of marine structures in waves can be studied using finite-dimensional linear-time-invariant approximating models. These models, obtained using system identification with data computed by hydrodynamic codes, find application in offshore training simulators, hardware-in-the-loop simulators for positioning control testing, and also in initial designs of wave-energy conversion devices. Different proposals have appeared in the literature to address the identification problem in both time and frequency domains, and recent work has highlighted the superiority of the frequency-domain methods. This paper summarises practical frequency-domain estimation algorithms that use constraints on model structure and parameters to refine the search of approximating parametric models. Practical issues associated with the identification are discussed, including the influence of radiation model accuracy in force-to-motion models, which are usually the ultimate modelling objective. The illustration examples in the paper are obtained using a freely available MATLAB toolbox developed by the authors, which implements the estimation algorithms described.

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.

Energy-based motion control of a slender hull unmanned underwater vehicle

This paper presents a motion control system for tracking of attitude and speed of an underactuated slender-hull unmanned underwater vehicle. The feedback control strategy is developed using the Port-Hamiltonian theory. By shaping of the target dynamics (desired dynamic response in closed loop) with particular attention to the target mass matrix, the influence of the unactuated dynamics on the controlled system is suppressed. This results in achievable dynamics independent of stable uncontrolled states. Throughout the design, the insight of the physical phenomena involved is used to propose the desired target dynamics. Integral action is added to the system for robustness and to reject steady disturbances. This is achieved via a change of coordinates that result in input-to-state stable (ISS) target dynamics. As a final step in the design, an anti-windup scheme is implemented to account for limited actuator capacity, namely saturation. The performance of the design is demonstrated through simulation with a high-fidelity model.

A novel approach to 6-DOF adaptive trajectory tracking control of an AUV in the presence of parameter uncertainties

In this paper, the trajectory tracking control of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUVs) in six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOFs) is addressed. It is assumed that the system parameters are unknown and the vehicle is underactuated. An adaptive controller is proposed, based on Lyapunov׳s direct method and the back-stepping technique, which interestingly guarantees robustness against parameter uncertainties. The desired trajectory can be any sufficiently smooth bounded curve parameterized by time even if consist of straight line. In contrast with the majority of research in this field, the likelihood of actuators׳ saturation is considered and another adaptive controller is designed to overcome this problem, in which control signals are bounded using saturation functions. The nonlinear adaptive control scheme yields asymptotic convergence of the vehicle to the reference trajectory, in the presence of parametric uncertainties. The stability of the presented control laws is proved in the sense of Lyapunov theory and Barbalat׳s lemma. Efficiency of presented controller using saturation functions is verified through comparing numerical simulations of both controllers.

Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise

Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal regions. This study investigates into the parametric analysis on saltwater intrusion in a conceptual, coastal, unconfined aquifer considering wide range of freshwater draft and anticipated sea level rise. The saltwater intrusion under various circumstances is simulated through parametric studies using MODFLOW, MT3DMS and SEAWAT. The MODFLOW is used to simulate the groundwater flow system under changing hydro-dynamics in coastal aquifer. To simulate solute transport MT3DMS and SEAWAT is used. The saltwater intrusion process has direct bearing on hydraulic conductivity and inversely related to porosity. It may also be noted that increase in recharge rate considered in the study does not have much influence on saltwater intrusion. Effect of freshwater draft at locations beyond half of the width of the aquifer considered has marginal effect and hence can be considered as safe zone for freshwater withdrawals. Due to the climate change effect, the anticipated rise in sea level of 0.88 m over a century is considered in the investigation. This causes increase in salinity intrusion by about 25%. The combined effect of sea level rise and freshwater draft (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.